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Author Topic:   Which animals would populate the earth if the ark was real?
bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2498 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


Message 4 of 991 (575812)
08-21-2010 6:02 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Dirk
08-20-2010 11:00 PM


Dirk writes:
And did Noah release the chickens and cows and pigs and sheep as well, or did he keep them in the ark so that he didn't have to catch them later if he wanted eggs & bacon for breakfast?
No bacon, he was Jewish.
Then, pretty much what Mr. Jack said, so further miracles would be required from God.
And welcome to EvC.

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bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2498 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


(1)
Message 466 of 991 (706259)
09-08-2013 9:52 PM
Reply to: Message 460 by mindspawn
09-08-2013 8:27 PM


Re: If the ARK was real here is what we must see.
mindspawn writes:
Humans show an absolute and extreme bottleneck. It is scientific fact that all humans come from one man.
Your first statement doesn't follow from the second. A Y-chromosome going to fixation does not mean an extreme bottleneck. Characteristics that have originally occurred in one individual are always going to fixation, bottlenecks or no bottlenecks.
It is your Noah story that requires an extreme (and very recent) bottleneck, and makes it necessary that Noah is the Y ancestor.
mindspawn writes:
Kindly post your evidence and see what DNA analysis you are confidently basing your claims on.
Apart from the evidence that our mutation rate is more than an order of magnitude too low for the Noah story to be true, don't you remember me pointing you to some papers on diversity in elephants/mammoths, and asking you how big a herd you expected there to be on the ark?
Elephant divergence including African speciation.
Highly divergent sub-species in Asia
And it looks like you'll need a whole herd of giraffe on the Ark, as well. It's filling up fast!
Edited by bluegenes, : Put in elephant links.
Edited by bluegenes, : Added the giraffe paper. I'll check out some other big, hungry animals!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 460 by mindspawn, posted 09-08-2013 8:27 PM mindspawn has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 467 by jar, posted 09-08-2013 10:20 PM bluegenes has replied
 Message 493 by mindspawn, posted 09-10-2013 3:51 AM bluegenes has replied

  
bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2498 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


Message 468 of 991 (706261)
09-08-2013 10:50 PM
Reply to: Message 467 by jar
09-08-2013 10:20 PM


Re: If the ARK was real here is what we must see.
jar writes:
It also requires that the most recent common female ancestor must have been only 4500 years ago and come from a very small pool.
No to the first part. The sons have three wives, and they could be from three different mitochondrial haplogroups. But yes, it's a very small pool, to put it mildly. We would all look pretty much like modern Palestinians if the story were true, but we would be even more homogeneous than they are with such a small founder effect.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 467 by jar, posted 09-08-2013 10:20 PM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 469 by jar, posted 09-08-2013 11:03 PM bluegenes has replied

  
bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2498 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


(2)
Message 470 of 991 (706263)
09-08-2013 11:29 PM
Reply to: Message 469 by jar
09-08-2013 11:03 PM


Re: If the ARK was real here is what we must see.
jar writes:
What it means is that there are three different possible female ancestors other than Noahs wife.
Noah's wife isn't a potential "mitochondrial eve", if that's what you mean, because she can't pass her mtDNA on to her sons.
jar writes:
If there was a single most recent common female ancestor it would have to be even more recent than 4500 years ago.
If you mean a mtDNA "Eve", no. It could be more recent if a single version of the mtDNA goes to fixation. For example, that would happen immediately if two of the three young couples who survived the flood produced only boys, and no daughters, so that all the surviving females then would have the mtDNA of one of the three wives, and there's nothing else.
But if no single mtDNA goes to fixation after that point, then the mtDNA "Eve" would be further back. She would be the first women from whom all three of Noah's son's wives descended via direct maternal ancestry.

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 Message 469 by jar, posted 09-08-2013 11:03 PM jar has replied

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bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2498 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


(1)
Message 494 of 991 (706363)
09-10-2013 4:33 AM
Reply to: Message 489 by mindspawn
09-09-2013 7:21 PM


Re: If the ARK was real here is what we must see.
mindspawn writes:
That evidence did not support your position in that thread, and neither will support your position if you post it into this thread. Large populations, like humans and cattle, have more germline mutations than small populations. At currently measured rates of approximately 18 to 45 (let's say 20) germline mutations per generation, in a population of 7 billion humans, means that current humans have 140 billion new alleles. Divided into 20 000 gene positions, that is 7 million new alleles in each gene position for the current population of earth.
These figures are approximate, I am merely illustrating approximately how many new alleles one would expect in modern times, let alone 4500 years of germline mutations.
Approximate indeed! Firstly, only about 1.5% of the germline mutations will hit on the genes. Feed that in, and you can work out what proportion of the population will mutate on a specific gene. Multiply that by the number of generations back to Adam and Eve, and you get the proportion of the population which will have a variant from the original 4 alleles of Adam and Eve. The answer, with your mutation rate above, is 1/256. So, you can make testable predictions from your model. I vaguely remember asking whether you'd like it to be tested, but I think you disappeared for a while around that time.
Anyway, I've worked out a easier to understand falsification of your model. You need ~30 mutations per. generation transfer on the Y chromosome alone to support the Noah flood story.
So, now that you know with 99% confidence that your model is false, what are you going to do?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 489 by mindspawn, posted 09-09-2013 7:21 PM mindspawn has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 499 by mindspawn, posted 09-10-2013 8:18 AM bluegenes has replied

  
bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2498 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


(1)
Message 495 of 991 (706364)
09-10-2013 4:48 AM
Reply to: Message 493 by mindspawn
09-10-2013 3:51 AM


Re: If the ARK was real here is what we must see.
mindspawn writes:
I agree it does not guarantee a bottleneck, but it certainly makes one possible. Without mtDNA Adam, the bottleneck of the ark story would already be disproved.
You mean Y Adam. There has to be a Y Adam at some point in history (genetic drift makes it inevitable), so your model couldn't be falsified by a lack of one. Rather, it's a question of when.
mindspawn writes:
Modern genetics has discovered we have a single common ancestor in both genders and in the order described by the bible. Do you feel that it a mere co-incidence?
As I say, it's inevitable, apart from the order which could be either way. In fact, a recent discovery Message 7 shows that the order is the other way around. That discovery also means that I'm being generous in my last post when I say that your model requires ~30 mutations per. generation on the Y chromosome alone. It's really more than double that!
BTW, you've been linking to a number of articles in your recent posts that actually contradict your point of view if you read them carefully.
Edited by bluegenes, : typo

This message is a reply to:
 Message 493 by mindspawn, posted 09-10-2013 3:51 AM mindspawn has replied

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bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2498 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


(1)
Message 496 of 991 (706366)
09-10-2013 5:17 AM
Reply to: Message 493 by mindspawn
09-10-2013 3:51 AM


Re: If the ARK was real here is what we must see.
Sorry, forgot about the rest of your post.
mindspawn writes:
I'm getting old, all I remember is a lot of genetic studies, none of which I felt made a convincing case.
Please see my post below regarding mutation rates. None of your links contradicts what we would expect from 20-40 germline mutations per generation for 4500 years.
They do if you understand them.
mindspawn writes:
Rather than comparing allele diversity across populations, it would be more accurate to compare diversity between an individual from each population to be able to predict no. of generations separating the two populations from their common ancestors.
For example, the deep divergence time between the forest and savannah elephant does not require that they were separate species on the ark 4500 years ago, because during periods of large populations many new alleles can be introduced through a germline mutation rate of 20 to 40 per generation. When populations diminish, the no. of derived alleles across each population can remain high. This can reflect large historical populations of each species and not necessarily long periods of diversion.
Certainly. But that's why I was asking you how many elephants/mammoths were on the ark. You don't need thousands of each species, but you can't bottleneck each species down to one pair. I see you're now suggesting 14 members for each species of large animal, which is better genetically, but of course leaves you with the problem that there's no room on the Ark for them all.
Let me ask you a question. In your own personal YEC model with your idea of the flood at the P-T boundary, are you seriously suggesting that all the land creatures that we find in the fossil record since the boundary were on the Ark?
But like I said, counting accumulated differences across populations isn't an effective way of predicting the age of a population since diversion.
It's loosely effective, but there are variables. Counting the differences that have gone to fixation between two population groups can give you an approximate time of divergence if you know the approximate mutation rates and generation times. But there are still other variables like effective population size, and all this is why you get people like me giving my personal guestimate of 6 to 13 million years for our divergence from the chimps.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 493 by mindspawn, posted 09-10-2013 3:51 AM mindspawn has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 498 by mindspawn, posted 09-10-2013 6:32 AM bluegenes has replied

  
bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2498 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


(1)
Message 504 of 991 (706384)
09-10-2013 3:14 PM
Reply to: Message 498 by mindspawn
09-10-2013 6:32 AM


Re: If the ARK was real here is what we must see.
mindspawn writes:
The ark was a huge ship. The area was slightly larger than a football field, and more than 3 stories high. First mammals were small in stature. Due to lack of space, its more likely that they used calves. 14 elephant calves of small elephants wouldn't have taken up much space. Even the much larger modern Indian elephants have very small calves. (91 kg)
"The first true known member of the family, and therefore the great-great ancestor of our modern elephants was Moeritherium. Moeritherium was about the size of a pig and it is believed to have lived in swampy environments." (14 piglets)
Are you suggesting that all Proboscidea descended from 14 Moerotherium over the last 4,500 years? And at the same time you express incredulity at humans and chimps descending from a common ancestor over a time scale of millions of years?
mindspawn writes:
The average differences between two populations would make sense, but the links you posted did not express mutations in that manner, so far nothing has been presented that indicates a conflict between DNA analysis and the ark story.
Indicates to whom? DNA analysis tells us that humans certainly did not go through a tight bottleneck of three brothers and their wives 4,500 years ago. And that's in direct conflict with the Ark story.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 498 by mindspawn, posted 09-10-2013 6:32 AM mindspawn has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 511 by mindspawn, posted 09-11-2013 6:23 AM bluegenes has replied

  
bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2498 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


Message 506 of 991 (706387)
09-10-2013 4:13 PM
Reply to: Message 499 by mindspawn
09-10-2013 8:18 AM


Re: If the ARK was real here is what we must see.
mindspawn writes:
Why do you say that 30 mutations are needed on the y chromosome?
Look on the thread that's about this, particularly Message 53. Look at the research paper, and if you think I've got it wrong, then tell me where and how.
By all means continue the discussion on that thread, because we're likely to be told it's off topic here.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 499 by mindspawn, posted 09-10-2013 8:18 AM mindspawn has replied

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bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2498 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


(1)
Message 518 of 991 (706414)
09-11-2013 10:10 AM
Reply to: Message 511 by mindspawn
09-11-2013 6:23 AM


Re: If the ARK was real here is what we must see.
mindspawn writes:
bluegenes writes:
Are you suggesting that all Proboscidea descended from 14 Moerotherium over the last 4,500 years? And at the same time you express incredulity at humans and chimps descending from a common ancestor over a time scale of millions of years?
The problem I have with human/chimp diversity is the ability of nature to regularly add effective genes to the genome. I haven't seen any proof of rates of increased genetic complexity to explain modern organisms with lengthy genomes compared to the original bacterial forms.
I am a great believer in DNA analysis, I don't believe phylogenetic trees that are based on physical characteristic in fossils are accurate enough to confidently determine ancestry. So I cannot give an answer about the moerotherium, I believe it could be possible. (I do believe in rapid macro-evolution but not on a genetic level.)
If you read the paper below, you can see that the family that includes mammoth, mastodons, Asian elephants, African Savannah elephants, and African forest elephants has a very similar history to the great ape family, and this takes place over the same time period. They have similar generation times, and their divergence on genomes is similar in quantity and type. It makes no sense that you can see them as evolving from a common ancestor and not see us and the other great apes as doing the same.
Genomic DNA Sequences from Mastodon and Woolly Mammoth Reveal Deep Speciation of Forest and Savanna Elephants | PLOS Biology
You would need groups of all of those 5 species on your crowded Ark.
As for new genes, and the increases on genomes, I'm happy to get back to explaining duplication, neofunctionalization, subfunctionalization, and sub-neofunctionalization again, if you want. There's plenty of evidence for it, as I've explained before, for those of us who know how to read history on genomes. Paralogs are everywhere.
But that's off topic here.
mindspawn writes:
bluegenes writes:
Indicates to whom? DNA analysis tells us that humans certainly did not go through a tight bottleneck of three brothers and their wives 4,500 years ago. And that's in direct conflict with the Ark story.
You are welcome to post evidence for this to back up your statement. I have posted my maths to indicate that currently measured mutation rates are in the general region expected by the Noah story, Y-Adam can certainly fit in with Noah less than 10000 years ago at germline mutation rates of 48 per generation. This goes completely against current estimates of Y-Adam being over 40 000 years ago.
But you're wrong, and YEC is soundly falsified. See Message 60 for the conclusive evidence that backs up my statement. And that's not the only way I can falsify YEC with genetics.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 511 by mindspawn, posted 09-11-2013 6:23 AM mindspawn has replied

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bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2498 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


(1)
Message 555 of 991 (706651)
09-16-2013 6:13 AM
Reply to: Message 549 by mindspawn
09-16-2013 3:49 AM


Re: The flood story (getting pretty off the topic core)
mindspawn writes:
Early Turkish caves:
Page not found | Campus Web Services
Your link does not support your claim that the earliest inhabited caves are in Turkey, and the dating contradicts your model. But more importantly, how do you decide the age of such sites if you do not accept scientific dating methods?
Anyway, there are cave remains ranging from Africa to south-east Asia that have been dated to more than the 45,000 yrs. BP.
Here's a recent example from Laos.
The Turkish stone building site, Gbekli Tepe, you mention may be the earliest known stone building, but it's easier to build in wood, and if you accept the Turkish dating, you have to accept this:
11,500 yr old building in Britain
And no-one is suggesting that that hut is likely to be anywhere near the first in the world!
Edited by bluegenes, : Added link

This message is a reply to:
 Message 549 by mindspawn, posted 09-16-2013 3:49 AM mindspawn has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 559 by mindspawn, posted 09-16-2013 7:20 AM bluegenes has replied

  
bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2498 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


(1)
Message 561 of 991 (706659)
09-16-2013 8:29 AM
Reply to: Message 559 by mindspawn
09-16-2013 7:20 AM


Re: The flood story (getting pretty off the topic core)
Laos link
quote:
Radiocarbon and luminescence dating of the surrounding sediments provide a minimum age of 51—46 ka, and direct U-dating of the bone indicates a maximum age of ∼63 ka.
46 to 63 thousand.
mindspawn writes:
The Gobleki site is the oldest dated building on the earth. I believe dating methods are a loose reflection of relative dating, and so generally I agree that carbon dating and radiometric dating are a loosely accurate reflection of relative dates.
Your wooden building, its dated younger than the Gobleki site.
"The world-renowned Star Carr site, which dates back to 9,000BC, was first discovered by local man John Moore in 1947 after he came across a flint blade in a field and began digging for artefacts."
Try this one:
A dozen small ~14,000 year old huts in South America
mindspawn writes:
You may be correct about the caves, however I haven't seen your evidence yet.
Old, old cave.
I'm correct about caves and buildings. However, buildings aren't really relevant, because it just depends on where we happen to have found them. Humans were certainly in Africa, the Middle -east, Asia, Europe and Australia before they were in South America.
If you are accepting dating as relative, then Ethiopia or South Africa might be the places with the earliest modern human relics (not necessarily in caves).
More buildings here, if you want them:
Stone Age Habitats. First known stone buildings may be the stone and fired clay huts in Czechoslovakia at ~23,000yrs
Edited by bluegenes, : Added stone age habitats link

This message is a reply to:
 Message 559 by mindspawn, posted 09-16-2013 7:20 AM mindspawn has replied

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bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2498 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


(1)
Message 660 of 991 (707064)
09-22-2013 4:56 AM
Reply to: Message 659 by Admin
09-22-2013 2:42 AM


Re: Fact Checking
Admin writes:
According to your own link, the biggest range of mitochondrial DNA is in southwestern China. The second biggest range is in Mongolia.
I see what you mean, but those little pies are misleading, as I've explained to mindspawn before. Outside Africa, they are showing more recent subdivisions just to illustrate our spread around the world. But inside Africa, they don't show the equivalent sub-haplogroups.
The chart below gives a good idea of the true story. Take a chunk of the mitochondria, and you can find pairs of Africans who will differ more on it than any two out of Africa people will from each other, although you'll find the same quantity of difference between us outsiders and people on the L0 branch as you will between non-L0 Africans and L0 Africans.
It's similar with the Y-chromosome (and that shows on the chart I'm using on the "genetic falsification" thread).
Sub-Saharan Africans have the most genetic diversity all over the genome, simply because most of the population, until recently, was there, and the rest of us show evidence of a "founder effect" bottleneck (often more than one, like native Americans and Australians).
We outsiders are all L3 Africans.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 659 by Admin, posted 09-22-2013 2:42 AM Admin has replied

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 Message 661 by Admin, posted 09-22-2013 7:48 AM bluegenes has replied

  
bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2498 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


(1)
Message 662 of 991 (707069)
09-22-2013 10:35 AM
Reply to: Message 661 by Admin
09-22-2013 7:48 AM


Re: Fact Checking
Percy writes:
I think they're only misleading to Mindspawn. I don't think anyone else would be led to conclude that the region of greatest current mtDNA diversity must be the origin of mankind (or that papers on the terrestrial deposits of rivers and lakes are actually about the flood, or that marine transgressions at the P-T boundary represent a global flood while those during other eras do not). But I wanted to limit myself to matters of fact, so I only noted Mindspawn's factual error about what his link said about mtDNA diversity.
I've tracked down where Mindspawn obtained that image, Matriarchs: mtDNA at a Hebrew apologetics website about the lost tribes of Israel. To me the pies with the greatest diversity indicate the greatest migrational crossroads in human history, please feel free to correct or refine this comment.
The map's standard (you can find it on wiki and elsewhere). It's just trying to give a general idea of human dispersal from Africa, but it doesn't actually show diversity properly. As it is about migration, your last comment seems reasonable if you're talking about "pie diversity" rather than genetic diversity.
But it isn't just mindspawn who thinks that the greatest region of mtDNA diversity is likely to be the region of origin of modern humans. That's why I've pointed out that they don't bother segmenting the African Pies. All of the out of Africa stuff comes from M and N, which are divisions of L3. If we did a pie chart map for the time that they emerge, there would be a two segment, two colour pie outside Africa, and a multi-segment (more than 20) multicoloured pie inside. Africa got off to a big head start so far as mtDNA diversity is concerned.
Still today, we can find significantly more variations on the mitochondria from a collection of individuals in Africa than we can from a collection from the 5 other continents. That's what biologists mean by diversity, and Africa is certainly where it is.
That's the effect we'd expect from any region if modern humans had emerged there and remained there for a long time in considerable numbers before dispersing out of the region in relatively small groups who were mainly from the same area within the region (a likely scenario, if migration was mainly from North-east Africa into the Middle-East).

This message is a reply to:
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bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2498 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


Message 669 of 991 (707086)
09-22-2013 7:36 PM
Reply to: Message 663 by mindspawn
09-22-2013 4:01 PM


Re: Brief Comments about the Nature of Evidence
mindspawn writes:
Bluegenes is the only one to try an attempt to refute the 4500 year timeframe from human DNA data. He does not seem to understand the data as you can see in the biological forum.
You don't need to make mistakes about the papers you haven't yet understood on two different threads. Go to the correct thread, and make your mistakes there. Tell us why the authors somehow forgot to compare the "Y" of individual "A" to any others.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 663 by mindspawn, posted 09-22-2013 4:01 PM mindspawn has replied

Replies to this message:
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