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Author Topic:   New life, and new life forms
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1052 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 25 of 59 (580446)
09-09-2010 5:25 AM
Reply to: Message 23 by crashfrog
09-09-2010 12:35 AM


I guess what I'm saying is, the full life and death of a star seems to be a prerequisite to forming a life-capable star system, so I don't see how there's much time for any other system to have gotten much of a jump on us. The indication (as I recall) is that the last star, the progenitor of the Sun, formed fairly soon after the formation of the universe, but maybe I'm wrong about that. Given the rate of technological advancement in intelligent species, any intelligence with as much as a million years head-start should be engaging in engineering on a galactic scale by now. We should be able to see their public works projects from here.
Isn't our Sun a third-generation star? Either way, it seem the oldest supernova we've found predates our sun by more time than it's life span, so there might still be plenty of time.
I don't think there's any reason to assume a particular rate of technological development. Remember that you're extrapolating from a sample size of one, and the history of technological development on earth does not conform to any sort of steady pattern.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 23 by crashfrog, posted 09-09-2010 12:35 AM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 27 by crashfrog, posted 09-09-2010 10:41 AM caffeine has replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1052 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 39 of 59 (580566)
09-10-2010 4:17 AM
Reply to: Message 27 by crashfrog
09-09-2010 10:41 AM


I guess the only assumption I feel I'm making is that, regardless of how fast technology develops it develops instantaneously over geologic time.
Up to a point, but I don't think we can auomatically assume that there won't be a brick wall we can't overcome between current levels of technology and that required to engineer on a galactic scale. Simple tool use, after all, seems to have been around for many millions of years in all sorts of species, but it took the arisal of our species to turn this into the complex technology we have today. There could be an upper limit to our acheivements.
Of course, it's also possible that galatic scale engineering just isn't acheivable full stop, due to basic physicl constraints on how much energy can be produced or how fast it's possible to travel.
On the more general question of whether intelligent life would arise everywhere at about the same time, this seems very unlikely to me. Looking at the history of life on our planet, there seem to be certain jumps in its development. It's possible that, for most of the life's prescence here, there were no eukaryotic cells. Their creation could well be a bizarre and unlikely fluke, without which the biosphere would still just consist of varieties of bacteria.
Given the vastness of the universe, the same fluke (or similar flukes allowing multicellular, inteligent life to eventually appear) could happen plenty of times, but happening at the same time seems unlikely even on geological scales. It might take 4 billion years on planet A, 1 billion years on planet B, 8.5 billion yearson planet C etc. etc.
As for the Fermi paradox, the universe is huge! Why would we expect to notice evidence of civillisations unimaginably distant from us. We've only recently been able to (indirectly) observe the prescence of planets in other solar systems.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 27 by crashfrog, posted 09-09-2010 10:41 AM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 43 by crashfrog, posted 09-10-2010 2:28 PM caffeine has not replied
 Message 46 by AZPaul3, posted 09-10-2010 4:44 PM caffeine has not replied

  
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