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Author Topic:   When Earth’s population was 10,000 persons
RAZD
Member (Idle past 637 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(1)
Message 168 of 194 (654952)
03-05-2012 9:43 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by goldenlightArchangel
01-24-2011 1:48 PM


graph of population
Hi CrazyDiamond7,

I've only browsed this thread, and it looks to me like you could use a review of population growth based on the available evidence.

As noted elsewhere on this thread there are a number of factors that inhibit population growth, and there are a number of factors that promote population growth.

In 1972 I wrote a thesis for my Masters Degree at the University of Toronto, Titled "Urban, Social, and Technological Development" and in it I have a graph of world population vs time:

It is a log-log graph as that best shows the overall picture.

This thesis is now 40 years old, so I strongly suspect that some additional data is available now that was not available then, but I don't expect any cause for major revision at this point to the general picture, just to details. This was also before computers were normally used in writing such documents, and the original is all hand typed and drawn. Fortunately it was only 172 pages long (and I only needed three 'original' copies). Total urban population is estimated from known large urban center populations and is approximate.

You will note a repeating pattern of fast initial growth following the development of new methods of feeding the population, followed by a gradual plateau as the limits of resources are reached for each particular method.

There was a population explosion for

  • hunting food, using tools to increase hunting gathering,
  • growing food, the development of agriculture and animal husbandry,
  • the industrialization of food growth, and
  • the globalization of food production

This simple graph shows that Earth's population was ~10,000 (104) near the beginning of this graph, over 1 million years ago.

The real fact is that regardless of disease, natural disasters, wars and famine, human population has never stopped growing. History proves that Humans are able to impede animal growth but never their own.

Indeed, each time they had the opportunity they bred like rabbits and filled their ecology to the point where deaths from starvation, wars, disease, etc matched (or nearly matched) births. We see this trend continuing today with the planet being increasingly covered by people, and the rise in mortality that occurs as systems are maxed out.

Enjoy.

Edited by RAZD, : code


we are limited in our ability to understand
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Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
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This message is a reply to:
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 637 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 173 of 194 (655074)
03-06-2012 8:21 PM
Reply to: Message 169 by goldenlightArchangel
03-06-2012 3:59 PM


Timeline and the population growth of Reality
Hi CrazyDiamond7,

... all families of fishermen do not have to change their fishing activities into farming so that they continued to grow and multiply.
... those who like fishing, hunting, mining or any other activity do not have to become farmers so that they can continue to bring food, fish and meat to their homes.

Mining does not produce food that I am aware of.

Essentially correct, but their ability to grow and multiply will be limited by their ability to find food. Areas can be overhunted with the resulting catastrophic plunging in the populations of the fish and animals that provide the most product for the effort, meaning that return on the investment of time and labor will decrease, and food production will drop.

However, should some choose to embark on agriculture and animal husbandry to supplement the fishing\hunting diet then they are more able to grow and multiply. One industry does not need to stop when the other begins, but can supplement it.

We see this happening on a world level today. It is not a fairytale.

The concept is simple, take the area where fishing or hunting occurs, divide by the population to produce the square feet of resources to feed each person. Double the population and do it again. You now need to produce the same food from 1/2 the area than previously. Do this a second time and you need to produce the same food from 1/4 the area than originally. A point is soon reached where the area per person is not adequate to provide food for the all the people, so some have to die from starvation, or from diseases and infant deaths from malnutrition (unless you have a means to supplement food production).

We see this happening on a world level today. It is not a fairytale.

55,000 families of European fishermen would always continue to grow their population x 15 - 80 % every thousand years or even 1 to 10 - 80 %, whether in section III, II or I, but many will not see the evidence nor verify for consistency of the population growth model.

No they won't. You run out of fishable area, and you run out of the original fish populations. If you don't understand the concept of resource limits on growth, this discussion is pointless.

-
| 1 thousand years | . . . . 2,000 x 15 = 30,000 - 80 % = 6,000 persons
| 2 thousand years | . . . . 6,000 x 15 = 90,000 - 80 % = 18,000 persons
| 3 thousand years | . . . .18,000 x 15 = 270,000 - 80 % = 54,000 persons
| 4 thousand years | . . . .54,000 x 15 = 810,000 - 80 % = 162,000 persons
| 5 thousand years | . . . 162,000 x 15 = 2,430,000 - 80 % = 486,000 persons
| 6 thousand years | . . . 486,000 x 15 = 7,290,000 - 80 % = 1,458,000 persons
| 7 thousand years | . . 1,458,000 x 15 = 21,870,000 - 80 % = 4,374,000 persons
|
| 8 thousand years | . . 4,374,000 x 15 = 65,610,000 - 80 % = 13,122,000 persons
| 9 thousand years | . .13,122,000 x 15 = 196,830,000 - 80 % = 39,366,000 persons
|10 thousand years | . .39,366,000 x 15 = 590,490,000 - 80 % = 118,098,000 persons
|11 thousand years | . 118,098,000 x 15 = 1,771,470,000 - 80 % = 354,294,000 persons
|12 thousand years | . 354,294,000 x 15 = 5,314,410,000 - 80 % = 1,062,882,000 persons
|13 thousand years | 1,062,882,000 x 15 = 15,943,230,000 - 80 % = 3,188,646,000 persons
|14 thousand years | 3,188,646,000 x 15 = 47,829,690,000 - 80 % = 9,565,938,000 persons

And without any matching to reality and data available this is just a mathematical fairytale.

When a mathematical model fails to match reality, it is the mathematical model that is in error, not reality.

See Message 168 for a graph that shows actual human populations:

These curves show that a population explosion occurred each time a new method was developed that added to the overall ability to produce food.

When your "families of fishermen" have some people that diversify into agriculture then the production of food is increased without increasing the effort of fishing.

When your mathematical model can reproduce those curves we can talk.

Enjoy.


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 169 by goldenlightArchangel, posted 03-06-2012 3:59 PM goldenlightArchangel has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 174 by goldenlightArchangel, posted 03-07-2012 5:03 PM RAZD has replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 637 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 175 of 194 (655132)
03-07-2012 5:44 PM
Reply to: Message 174 by goldenlightArchangel
03-07-2012 5:03 PM


Population Growth Realm vs limiting factors
Hi again CrazyDiamond7, thanks.

Fishermen know that during the seasons of every year there is a good time for fishing and those great times of the year have always been present from 50 thousand years ago.

Fishermen also know that there are some areas that are more productive that others, and they have seen where total catch amount for all fishermen have declined (increasing the number of fishermen does not mean an increase in total catch), and that they have been forced to travel further and further to catch fish, meaning lower productivity per fisherman.

That's why many graphics made to be presented as (evidence of) accurancy of the evolution theory (for the origin of the Human body) does not show an increase of fishing as they do with the farmer activity.

That's because fishing is a form of hunting, and is included under hunting.

Recently we see efforts to apply the methodology of animal husbandry (which is classified under agricuilture rather than hunting due to the comparable process of raising crops) being applied to fishing (fish farms). This has been done in a smaller scale in some ancient societies (asian for example).

And now we see the methodology of factories (industrial revolution) to the production of food (including fish, animals and crops).

BUT THEIR POPULATION INCREASE CAN'T BE STOPPED EVERY THOUSAND YEARS

Asserting this in capital letters doesn't make it any more valid.

If you have fishermen trying to fish in an area where there is no fish worth catching, then no amount of fishermen will be able to catch any fish worth catching.

This is known as looking at the weakest link for food production in order to analyze feeding potential.

Enjoy


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 174 by goldenlightArchangel, posted 03-07-2012 5:03 PM goldenlightArchangel has taken no action

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 637 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 177 of 194 (655220)
03-08-2012 7:17 PM
Reply to: Message 176 by goldenlightArchangel
03-08-2012 4:22 PM


Re: THE FINALS CAN BE CHANGED – and they still indicate global termination
Hi CrazyDiamond7,

If you aren't willing to pay attention to what everybody else is saying, there is no point in us saying anything.

Enjoy


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 176 by goldenlightArchangel, posted 03-08-2012 4:22 PM goldenlightArchangel has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 181 by goldenlightArchangel, posted 03-09-2012 4:59 PM RAZD has replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 637 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 184 of 194 (655495)
03-10-2012 8:09 PM
Reply to: Message 181 by goldenlightArchangel
03-09-2012 4:59 PM


the evidence is population data - not mathematical models
Hi again CrazyDiamond7,

RAZD, if you have a time, please bring up any sample of multiplication rate,
whether from your ealy works or from documents provided by the official demographic institutes.
so that you can disprove with evidence the multiplication rate that you said is not valid

Multiplication rates are mathematical models not evidence. They are hypothetical AT BEST, and can easily be wild guesses.

What disproves your model is the harsh evidence of reality: the actual population data from past years.

If you don't understand this, then further discussion is pointless.

Enjoy.


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 181 by goldenlightArchangel, posted 03-09-2012 4:59 PM goldenlightArchangel has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 185 by goldenlightArchangel, posted 03-12-2012 5:50 PM RAZD has seen this message

  
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