There is a business columnist for C.B.S./Wall Street Journal Market Watch, Paul B.Farrell, who has written several columns that forecast dire consequential predictions for the U.S. Economy.
Jar suggested that I read them, since I am always worried about my retirement and wondering whom to blame for the economic misfortunes that keep the United States from resuming its golden role as provider nation for spoiled baby boomers such as myself.
Admittedly, Farrell usually writes negative columns concerning the U.S. Economy in general.
The Economic Populist
quote:On CBS Market Watch, Paul Farrell writes a pretty frightening article, 30 reasons for Great Depression 2 by 2011. Contained within is how now Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson knew years ago that the derivatives market could cause an economic collapse.
So Farrell mentions Treasury Secretary Paulson knowing of such events (that was an older column from a few years ago) and in these latest columns, he mentions David Stockman, President Ronald Reagan's director of the Office of Management and Budget.
I browsed the comments to the articles, hoping to glean a counter-argument that would brighten my day, but so far, most of the commentators agree with this gloomy assessment. Does anyone here at EvC have any positive messages of hope for our economic future, or are we as a nation in a huge state of denial?
Add By Edit: This discussion is not about placing blame on either political party exclusively. It is about discussing the facts behind our current economic situation and arriving at a political consensus that we all can live with. Endless finger pointing and bickering will not put out the fire.
Oh and one more thing! Even assuming, for the sake of argument, that none of the global religions are right...and that no prophecies have any logical support consider the predicted psychological behavior of a global class war. Fact is, the wealthy own/control 90% of everything. (A common assertion in most sociology textbooks...but what does it really mean?) When the wealth is stripped away from the American middle/lower middle classes, people will be praying and will likely fall prey to huckster preachers....again! For the non-religious, being forced into a lower standard of living will also likely anger many.(I know it will me!) How will we as a people act during this inevitable financial meltdown?
Before I say anything, let me just say that I don't know enough about economics to do a detail debate.
That said, I've been told by several people that they used to buy into the trickle down economics of Reagan but now have seen the real world effect of that, and it's bad. The assumption was that if rich people got the money they would invest in jobs and make the rest of us prosper. But what actually transpired was that when rich people got more money all they did was gamble away in risky business and caused the economic downturn. They don't care since rich people can ride out the storm without feeling a pinch in their stomach. It's the rest of us that paid the price for their mistakes.
The easiest way to see this effect in real life is look back at the Bush decade. Tax cuts after tax cuts, and with each tax cut for the rich more jobs were lost. And the more deregulated the economy got the more ponzi schemes and risky loans developed.
And now republicans are said to aim for a 25% tax cut for the rich. Good god, haven't they learned anything from the Bush decade?
And for those who vote republican, did you know that John Boehner got caught red-handed of an act of corruption by fellow republicans? He got caught handing out pay checks from tobacco companies on the congress floor to fellow congressmen right before a vote on tobacco issue.
And here's Boehner can't even answer a simple question about tax cuts.
The assumption was that if rich people got the money they would invest in jobs and make the rest of us prosper. But what actually transpired was that when rich people got more money all they did was gamble away in risky business and caused the economic downturn. They don't care since rich people can ride out the storm without feeling a pinch in their stomach. It's the rest of us that paid the price for their mistakes.
I can see the wisdom of working harder and getting educated. What I can't see is the idea of making less and/or paying the bill when the wealthiest guy at the table gets a break. if we cough up a bigger percentage of our incomes, so should the wealthy guy. (am I pointing fingers? )
Analyze the situation. Appeal to the present and to the past to determine what went wrong.
Eliminate the causes of that wrong.
Take steps to lessen the effect of that wrong.
Fair enough.
The article claims that the economy is basically already destroyed. The damage has been done. Jar mentioned this also. (why is he usually right?) If the future is gonna be this bleak, why even dream the dream anymore?
Analyze the situation. Appeal to the present and to the past to determine what went wrong.
Eliminate the causes of that wrong.
Take steps to lessen the effect of that wrong.
Fair enough.
The article claims that the economy is basically already destroyed. The damage has been done. Jar mentioned this also. (why is he usually right?) If the future is gonna be this bleak, why even dream the dream anymore?
The goal should be to try to make the future as bright as possible; but that cannot be done as long as we deny there is anything wrong or keep repeating what has failed in the past.
Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!
Re: Whats good for the goose is good for the gander
Because we as human beings living in our society need a minimum amount of income in order to live comfortably. On the other hand, there is a maximum amount of income where it anymore income is completely useless and harms society as a whole.
An extreme example is Bill Gates. Bill Gates has $40 billion. Does someone like Bill Gates really need more tax cuts? The only reason someone like Bill Gates wants more tax cuts is personal greed.
Here is a more real example. My brother makes about $200-250K a year. This amount is down $60K after his company took a hit because of the recession. His company, in order to survive and lay off as few people as possible, had to cut salaries on top of laying off a bunch of people. Of course the executives took no pay cuts. The higher up the echelons went, the less pay cuts occurred. In other words, the lower guys took the biggest cuts. Not only that, many lost their jobs.
And here was my brother bitching nonstop about how he shouldn't have gotten any pay cut at all (at the cost of more people getting lay off). Coincidently, he's a conservative republican. He also believes that we should kill medicare and medicaid completely.
Here the funny thing. Last year's election in our state he voted democrat. Why? Because the republican candidate swore that he'd stop all construction projects in the state immediately. My brother's company was really preparing for the worst if the republican candidate won the governorship. In fact, they had started sending out letters to potentials for lay-offs. My brother's company would have come a step away from going belly up if the republican candidate had won.
The moral of the story is my christian conservative republican brother believes in everything the republican party stands for (lower taxes for the rich, kill medicare and medicaid, stop all social programs, etc.) except for the parts that would affect his job. And I suspect that that's pretty much what the conservative movement is all about. It is the selfishness and greediness that have brought these people into what we now know as the republican party.
Would these rich conservative folks still want to kill our social safety nets if they themselves have fallen?
Let's have the wealthy speak out in favor of higher taxes
An extreme example is Bill Gates. Bill Gates has $40 billion. Does someone like Bill Gates really need more tax cuts? The only reason someone like Bill Gates wants more tax cuts is personal greed.
Via public radio, I heard Bill Gates flat out say he should be paying higher taxes (and indicate that he had said such before). I believe Warren Buffett thinks likewise. Of course, they have no one to compete against for the most wealth title.
I would be nice if Gates, Buffett, and other like minded wealthy people would do a prominent ad campaign promoting higher taxes for the wealthy.
Re: Let's have the wealthy speak out in favor of higher taxes
I hope everyone realizes that I used Bill Gates as an example only and not meaning to imply Bill Gates actually wanted lower taxes for the wealthy.
There have been many wealthy people talking about wanting higher taxes for the wealthy. It hasn't done much to deter the tea party from forming.
Again, I need to stress the fact that there is a limit in income before there's absolutely no benefit. And there is a minimum income in which a person must have to live comfortably in our society.
I'd like to know how many tea party members are in favor of raising the retirement age to 70, 75, or 78. Because that's exactly what the republicans want. Notice that all the people who want to raise the retirement age are ridiculously wealthy and will probably never have the need to depend on social security to live.
Who's to blame isn't really important. Passing around blame doesn't solve problems. Analyze the situation. Appeal to the present and to the past to determine what went wrong.
Eliminate the causes of that wrong.
Take steps to lessen the effect of that wrong.
Cross fingers.
Jon
We may be fighting against human psychology on that one. After the Great Depression there were many economic safeguards put in place to reduce the chances of another Great Depression. In the ensuing years these regulations were stripped away. The idea was to let the economy keep growing. We thought we knew best and ignored the wisdom of those who had gone through a really bad economic depression. The result? We repeated the mistakes made 80 years ago.
We humans are shortsighted. We weigh the present and immediate future more heavily than the past and the distant future. On top of that, we put our trust in politicians who campaign on increasing wealth in the here and now without any thought to the future (i.e. terms when they will not be running for office).
Alan Greenspan summed it up best. He thought that removing regulations was not a problem because those handling investments had their long term success in mind. He was wrong. They are just as flawed as any other human. They saw a chance to make big short term returns, and they took it. Investments poured into brokerage houses that advertised these schemes while more even handed brokerage houses were called dinosaurs.
Frankly, this whole cycle will probably be repeated 2-3 generations from now.
Re: Let's have the wealthy speak out in favor of higher taxes
I have a pretty comfortable income. I make enough that my Social Security tops out every fall and I don't pay that tax for several months out of the year.
That is plain fucking wrong. I make enough that I can afford to pay a little more to support a system that provides the friggin' necessities of life for old retired schmoes that never got above $8.00 an hour for the 43 years they worked at some miserable job that made my life easier - like garbagemen.
I say repeal that cap, or even start a progressive SS tax. Hell, I'll be retired before they do it anyway.
Even assuming, for the sake of argument, that none of the global religions are right...and that no prophecies have any logical support consider the predicted psychological behavior of a global class war. Fact is, the wealthy own/control 90% of everything. (A common assertion in most sociology textbooks...but what does it really mean?) When the wealth is stripped away from the American middle/lower middle classes, people will be praying and will likely fall prey to huckster preachers....again! For the non-religious, being forced into a lower standard of living will also likely anger many.(I know it will me!) How will we as a people act during this inevitable financial meltdown?
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