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Author Topic:   United States Debt Default
Bailey
Member (Idle past 3638 days)
Posts: 574
From: Earth
Joined: 08-24-2003


Message 13 of 211 (624082)
07-15-2011 7:00 PM
Reply to: Message 4 by Taq
07-15-2011 5:02 PM


In Regards to the Flickering Flame of Optimism
It doesn't have to happen in the long or short term. If the debt ceiling is raised in the short term and the debt is brought down to reasonable levels over the next 10 to 20 years then there is no problem.

Optimism's is a fickle finch Taq.

The debt ceiling’s been raised over 72 times and strangely the effect’s been increased interest levels and thus debts and deficits, rather than decreasing debt to any semblance of reason. The debt hasn’t decreased in over 50 years; however, when it comes to debt, the number itself doesn't actually matter anyway and it should be easily demonstrable.

Of course the above view doesn’t address the daunting challenge imposed by unemployment and jobs numbers, etc., etc..

Additionally, people should bypass the smoke and mirrors and give credit where it is do rather than to every college kid with a red cup. For example, when noting a declination in the jobless rate, also inform us of the shrinking workforce correlating so well. But I digress ..

Providing Tom’s total debts were equal to $1 million, he may be considered by many as financially ruined.

However, providing the United States' total debts were equal to $1 million, it would be in the prime of its existence.

The size of the debt - $1 million, is the same in both cases, but what it means is completely different because that number itself means very little. What matters is how the number relates to the economy in question.

For the national debt, what matters is how the debt compares as a percentage of the gross domestic product. The reason the debt is a problem is not simply because it’s encroaching $14.3 trillion dollars, but because that happens to be about 100 percent of the nation’s GDP. And granted - while it’s not unheard of, its perdy bad and especially so ..

Combined with a bygone era of industry, a collapsing consumer economy and all sorts of other delicate bubbles to burst.

In the end, a nation can only diminish tax revenues (due to structural unemployment or otherwise) for so long while seemingly fostering a kleptocracy by increasing the debt on a steadily rising tide of interest, before the flame of optimism eventually becomes extinguished.

If I win the lotto I'll pay the debt, but if's only get us so far and grampa always said ya can't spends 'dem thank you's.

One Love

Edited by Bailey, : sp.


I'm not here to mock or condemn what you believe, tho my intentions are no less than to tickle your thinker.
If those in first century CE had known what these words mean ... 'I want and desire mercy, not sacrifice'
They surely would not have murdered the innocent; why trust what I say, when you can learn for yourself?
Think for yourself.

Mercy Trumps Judgement,
Love Weary


This message is a reply to:
 Message 4 by Taq, posted 07-15-2011 5:02 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 15 by Taq, posted 07-15-2011 7:13 PM Bailey has replied

  
Bailey
Member (Idle past 3638 days)
Posts: 574
From: Earth
Joined: 08-24-2003


Message 16 of 211 (624087)
07-15-2011 8:14 PM
Reply to: Message 15 by Taq
07-15-2011 7:13 PM


Re: In Regards to the Flickering Flame of Optimism
So is defeatism.

Touche lol

Using this figure, there have been instances where the national debt has gone down in recent times ..

Minor detail - the debt expressed as a percentage of the GDP has experienced temporary decrease.

Dam smoke ..

In this scenario, it seems temporary increases in GDP attempt to give way to the illusion of a decrease in debt.

Dam mirrors ..

However, the actual debt itself remains steadily increasing, in fact never experiencing any actual decrease whatsoever.

As an aside, we may do well to review numbers. When we allow a dollar to represent a second, 1 million dollars is roughly equivalent to 12 days. Proportionately, 1 billion dollars/seconds is equivalent to roughly 32 years.

Now many people when you explain this to them, will then guess that 1 trillion seconds is equivalent to roughly 64 years or so, which effectively demonstrates how we can - at times, perceive numbers from an arbitrary view point.

The fact is 1 trillion dollars is roughly equivalent to 31.7 thousand years - rather then a meager 64 years, when we allow a dollar to represent each second. 1 trillion seconds ago civilization did not exist, and we still have to multiply that by 14.3.

We are considering a huge number - more stars than are in the milky way I hear.

I'm not sure I'm ready to say it's insurmountable though

One Love

Edited by Bailey, : grammar ..


I'm not here to mock or condemn what you believe, tho my intentions are no less than to tickle your thinker.
If those in first century CE had known what these words mean ... 'I want and desire mercy, not sacrifice'
They surely would not have murdered the innocent; why trust what I say, when you can learn for yourself?
Think for yourself.

Mercy Trumps Judgement,
Love Weary


This message is a reply to:
 Message 15 by Taq, posted 07-15-2011 7:13 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 17 by Taq, posted 07-15-2011 8:30 PM Bailey has replied

  
Bailey
Member (Idle past 3638 days)
Posts: 574
From: Earth
Joined: 08-24-2003


Message 22 of 211 (624165)
07-16-2011 11:06 AM
Reply to: Message 17 by Taq
07-15-2011 8:30 PM


Re: In Regards to the Flickering Flame of Optimism
Tag writes:

weary writes:

Minor detail - the debt expressed as a percentage of the GDP has experienced temporary decrease.

Dam smoke ..

In this scenario, it seems temporary increases in GDP attempt to give way to the illusion of a decrease in debt.

Dam mirrors ..

No smoke and mirrors. A 1 million dollar debt for Bill Gates is a lot different than the same debt for Joe the Plumber. If we keep the current debt for 30 years and GDP catches up to it, then the debt has been effectively lowered. This is a very, very bad way to lower the debt, but it is a way to do it nonetheless.

I’m gonna split hairs a bit here, but after all we’re in a debate forum. In this scenario, the actual debt is not decreasing at all – it’s representation, as a percentage, is simply being modified in proportion with its surroundings. This is like when we get a hair cut and refer to it as ‘getting our ears lowered’. At first it can be a useful expression, until someone believes people’s ears are actually being lowered .. then its just confusing.

Perhaps it would be unfair to call this smoke and mirrors. When the GDP rises and the national debt remains fixed, the result is a lesser percentage of debt against the GDP backdrop. However, the actual debt is obviously not lower, as it has remained fixed, which of course goes the same for Bill or Joe. When they take their surplus income and apply it toward their debt – not just on a chart, but in reality, their debt will be lower.

After all, if Tom wins $13,700, he can’t then say his $58,000 tuition bill decreased. What he can do is apply money towards it (after taxes of course). Likewise, he could walk around with his winnings and brag to all the people he owes money to that he’s not going to pay them, but rather he’s decided to subsidize his GDP with his winnings (or their principal, depending how ya look at it) in order to better capitalize on his interest penalties

As an aside, we may do well to review numbers. When we allow a dollar to represent a second, 1 million dollars is roughly equivalent to 12 days. Proportionately, 1 billion dollars/seconds is equivalent to roughly 32 years.

I am a microbiologist so I have a firm grasp on what large numbers of something look like.

You’re one of the lucky ones*

Now many people when you explain this to them, will then guess that 1 trillion seconds is equivalent to roughly 64 years or so, which effectively demonstrates how we can - at times, perceive numbers from an arbitrary view point.

Strangely enough, 1 trillion bacteria is the number of bacteria in about 1 ml of culture media.

So the US national debt is roughly 7 ml and climbing when expressed as a culture media ..

Ya learn something’ new everyday if ya ain’t careful

One Love



* Person in general, not just microbiologist ..


I'm not here to mock or condemn what you believe, tho my intentions are no less than to tickle your thinker.
If those in first century CE had known what these words mean ... 'I want and desire mercy, not sacrifice'
They surely would not have murdered the innocent; why trust what I say, when you can learn for yourself?
Think for yourself.

Mercy Trumps Judgement,
Love Weary


This message is a reply to:
 Message 17 by Taq, posted 07-15-2011 8:30 PM Taq has taken no action

  
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