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Author Topic:   Is agnosticism more intellectually honest?
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1431 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 49 of 95 (630686)
08-26-2011 11:35 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Wollysaurus
08-25-2011 2:54 PM


scales, evidence and logic, and the question of honesty
Hi Wollysaurus, and welcome to the fray.
Is agnosticism more intellectually honest?
If you mean is it more honest to say "we don't know" (when in fact we don't know), than it is to state say "I know" then the answer would be yes ... however the issue is a little more nuanced than that.
First consider these (modeled after the Dawkins scale):
  1. Absolute Theist: knows god/s exist. (logically invalid position)
  2. Strong Theist: the existence of god/s is more likely than not. (logically invalid position)
  3. Weak Theist: the existence of god/s is possible, maybe likely, but not sure. (logically valid position)
  4. Agnostic: god/s may exist or they may not, there is insufficient evidence to know one way or the other. (logically valid position)
  5. Weak Atheist: the non-existence of gods is possible, maybe likely, but not sure. (logically valid position)
  6. Strong Atheist: the non-existence of god/s is more likely than not. (logically invalid position)
  7. Absolute Atheist: knows that god/s do not exist. (logically invalid position)

1                                          7
The logically invalid positions require objective empirical evidence to substantiate them or they are "dishonest" in claiming something that is not supported by objective empirical evidence. The logically valid positions express uncertainty, and thus are "honest" -- note that this includes both weak atheists with weak theists as well as agnostics.
Personally I prefer the term "open-minded skeptic" to "agnostic" as there are religious overtones to "agnostic" while "open-minded skeptic" can apply to non-religious areas as well.
Without objective empirical evidence to support a position all we have to determine the "honesty" (validity) of an argument is a logical analysis. This is the analysis used for the above spectrum positions:
Compare:
• any X with no contradictory evidence is possibly true
• X(a) has no contradictory evidence
∴ X(a) can be true
to:
• any X with no contradictory evidence is absolutely true
• X(a) has no contradictory evidence
∴ X(a) is absolutely true
OR:
• any X with no contradictory evidence is more likely true than false
• X(a) has no contradictory evidence
∴ X(a) is more likely true than false
If the logical form is true for any X then it is true for Y, now let Y = notX:
• any Y with no contradictory evidence is possibly true
• Y(a) has no contradictory evidence
∴ Y(a) can be true
== notX(a) can be true ...
... and by the form of the argument, X(a) still can be possibly true ... which is in fact the case, so this is a valid argument, and a true conclusion is reached.
3, 4 and 5 fit this pattern. Possibility is a valid conclusion from a lack of contradictory evidence.
versus:
• any Y with no contradictory evidence is absolutely true
• Y(a) has no contradictory evidence
∴ Y(a) is absolutely true
== notX(a) is absolutely true ...
... and by the form of the argument, X(a) is still absolutely true ... which is a contradiction ... unless you have objective empirical evidence that directly contradicts one or the other being true: without such evidence there is a contradiction in the form of the argument and the argument is invalid, falsified, void.
As the second premise is the same as above, we see that the first premise is falsified. 1 and 7 fit this pattern and are logically FALSE arguments.
OR:
• any Y with no contradictory evidence is more likely true than false
• Y(a) has no contradictory evidence
∴ Y(a) is more likely true than false
== notX(a) is more likely true than false ...
... and by the form of the argument, X(a) is still more likely true than false ... which is a contradiction ... unless you have objective empirical evidence that directly contradicts one or the other being true: without such evidence there is a contradiction in the form of the argument and the argument is invalid, falsified, void.
As the second premise is the same as above, we see that the first premise is falsified as well. 2 and 6 fit this pattern and are logically FALSE arguments.
The other issue here is whether or not one is espousing an opinion versus making a statement that they claim is true. If I say "I don't know, but my opinion is that god/s do not exist" then that is an honest statement (and fits the "5" category).
I don't know, but my opinion is that god/s exist. (I'm a "3")
Enjoy

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Wollysaurus, posted 08-25-2011 2:54 PM Wollysaurus has replied

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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1431 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 69 of 95 (630760)
08-27-2011 5:38 PM
Reply to: Message 51 by Dr Adequate
08-27-2011 12:05 AM


Re: scales, evidence and logic, and the question of honesty
Hi Dr Adequate
P.S: The terms "weak atheist" and "strong atheist" already have meanings. Those aren't them.
Really? You might want to let Dawkins know.
Strong Atheism vs. Weak Atheism
quote:
Weak atheism, also sometimes referred to as implicit atheism, is simply another name for the broadest and most general conception of atheism: the absence of belief in any gods. A weak atheist is someone who lacks theism and who does not happen to believe in the existence of any gods no more, no less. This is also sometimes called agnostic atheism because most people who self-consciously lack belief in gods tend to do so for agnostic reasons.
Strong atheism, also sometimes referred to as explicit atheism, goes one step further and involves denying the existence of at least one god, usually multiple gods, and sometimes the possible existence of any gods at all. Strong atheism is sometimes called gnostic atheism because people who take this position often incorporate knowledge claims into it that is to say, they claim to know in some fashion that certain gods or indeed all gods do not or cannot exist.
bold for emphasis -- that seems to me to match what I said.
Does the same apply to werewolves? If not, why not?
I presume you are talking about categories and the logic of the positions relative to evidence.
Why wouldn't these categories and logic apply to every line of inquiry into our world\universe? You could make the scale more universal by saying:
  1. Absolute Believer: knows that "X" is true. (logically invalid position without supporting evidence)
  2. Strong Believer: thinks that "X" is true is more likely than not. (logically invalid position without supporting evidence)
  3. Weak Believer: thinks that "X" is true is possible, maybe likely, but not sure. (logically valid position)
  4. Agnostic: thinks that "X" may be true or it may not, there is insufficient evidence to know one way or the other. (logically valid position)
  5. Weak Non-believer: thinks that "X" is false is possible, maybe likely, but not sure. (logically valid position)
  6. Strong Non-believer: thinks that "X" is false is more likely than not. (logically invalid position without supporting evidence)
  7. Absolute Non-believer: knows that "X" is false. (logically invalid position without supporting evidence)
Where "believer" is used in the sense of someone with confidence in the truth of a concept
Believer Definition & Meaning | Dictionary.com
quote:
to have confidence in the truth, the existence, or the reliability of something, although without absolute proof that one is right in doing so: Only if one believes in something can one act purposefully.
Or we could use "adherent" or "supporter" if "believer" has too much religious overtone.
Thesaurus.com
quote:
acceptor, adherent, apostle, canonist, convert, devotee, disciple, doctrinaire, dogmatist, follower, freak, orthodox, prophet, proselyte, religionist, religious person, supporter, upholder, zealot
Or perhaps you could suggest a better term to use here.
For instance we could say that "evolutionists" are strong adherents\supporters of the theory of evolution, and that science in general is absolute non-adherents\supporters of falsified theories.
Where would you put werewolves on this concept scale?
RAZD's Concept Scale
  1. Zero Confidence Concepts
    1. No evidence, subjective or objective,
    2. No logical conclusions possible, but opinion possible
  2. Low Confidence Concepts
    1. Unconfirmed or subjective supporting evidence, opinion also involved, but no known contradictory evidence, nothing shows the concept per se to be invalid
    2. Conclusions regarding possibilities for further investigation, and opinions can be based on this level of evidence,
  3. High Confidence Concepts
    1. Validated and confirmed objective supporting evidence, and no known contradictory evidence
    2. Conclusions regarding probable reality can be made, repeated attempts to falsify such concepts leads to increased confidence in their being true.
Or should we add a category, where there is evidence that falsifies or invalidates the concept?
    "Negative Confidence Concepts"
    1. Invalidating or falsifying objective evidence exists
    2. Conclusions based on the concept regarding probable reality cannot be made.
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 51 by Dr Adequate, posted 08-27-2011 12:05 AM Dr Adequate has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 70 by Dr Adequate, posted 08-27-2011 6:00 PM RAZD has replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1431 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 72 of 95 (630765)
08-27-2011 6:04 PM
Reply to: Message 64 by Dr Adequate
08-27-2011 4:37 PM


Ben Franklin test
Hi again Dr. Adequate,
I disagree: if you don't know what god is, you don't really know what evidence it would leave behind. So, lack of evidence results not just from the non-existence of the evidence, but also from failures to recognize evidence that might be there.
Well, it's still lack of evidence, isn't it? But I'm not sure what sort of thing you have in mind.
First, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, just of a lack of evidence.
Second, consider Ben Franklin flying his kite in the rain, but without a means to test for the presence of electricity: lightening could strike his kite repeatedly, and yet he would not be able to record the presence (or absence) of electricity, instead he would have an absence of evidence (pro or con). It would be rather simplistic to conclude from such a test that electricity was not present in lightening.
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 64 by Dr Adequate, posted 08-27-2011 4:37 PM Dr Adequate has replied

Replies to this message:
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1431 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 78 of 95 (630772)
08-27-2011 6:21 PM
Reply to: Message 70 by Dr Adequate
08-27-2011 6:00 PM


Re: scales, evidence and logic, and the question of honesty
Hi Dr Adequate
And it seems to me not to match what you said.
You are welcome to your opinion, however just repeating 'no that's wrong' doesn't accomplish a thing.
But in that case you would find it "logically invalid" to be a 6 on your scale (i.e. to believe that "the non-existence of werewolves is more likely than not").
And?
The question is whether your position is opinion or one based on evidence: if you don't have supporting evidence, then it is de facto opinion, and the logical position is 5. If you have supporting evidence then you can go to 6 or 7 (depending on the strength of the evidence).
Is there supporting evidence that werewolves (and unicorns) do not exist? Is there is an absence of evidence that would be expected (predicted) if they existed?
Now if you can't bring yourself to put the chance of werewolves existing as lower than 50%, ...
So how do I calculate these probabilities? Without knowing all the possibilities you can't calculate probabilities. Can you predict the probabilities for what a di in my hand will land on when I throw it when (a) you don't know how many sides it has and (b) you don't know how it is numbered?
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 70 by Dr Adequate, posted 08-27-2011 6:00 PM Dr Adequate has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 80 by Dr Adequate, posted 08-27-2011 6:23 PM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1431 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 84 of 95 (630778)
08-27-2011 6:39 PM
Reply to: Message 75 by Dr Adequate
08-27-2011 6:15 PM


Re: Ben Franklin test
Hi again Dr Adequate
So I have heard it said; by people who behave as though they are certain of the non-existence of werewolves.
I repeat:
quote:
The question is whether your position is opinion or one based on evidence: if you don't have supporting evidence, then it is de facto opinion, and the logical position is 5. If you have supporting evidence then you can go to 6 or 7 (depending on the strength of the evidence).
Is there supporting evidence that werewolves (and unicorns) do not exist? Is there is an absence of evidence that would be expected (predicted) if they existed?
So I have heard it said; by people who behave as though they are certain of the non-existence of werewolves.
Why wouldn't having a 5 position be enough to behave as if werewolves did not exist? People behave as if their opinions are valid all the time, whether those opinions are true or not.
That's a different kind of question.
Is it?
Now in the case of Franklin's kite, he knew that electricity existed, he knew that everything contains some quantity (possibly zero) of electricity, and so could be agnostic about what that quantity is in the case of lightning.
How would he know that if he had no way to detect electricity?
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 75 by Dr Adequate, posted 08-27-2011 6:15 PM Dr Adequate has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 85 by Dr Adequate, posted 08-27-2011 6:55 PM RAZD has replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1431 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 93 of 95 (630812)
08-28-2011 9:09 AM
Reply to: Message 85 by Dr Adequate
08-27-2011 6:55 PM


Re: Ben Franklin test
Hi again Dr Adequate,
Well, there's an absence of evidence of werewolves.
Which doesn't mean they don't exist, as you eloquently state:
Message 91: The definition of a werewolf is simply someone who can turn into a wolf. Do they have to conform to your stereotypes of them?
Maybe they stay home with a dish of dogfood rather than going around drawing attention to themselves by mauling people. And why should they black out? Maybe they are fully conscious of being werewolves and are understandably discreet about it.
In which case why should anyone be concerned about their existence? Why would anyone need to carry silver for protection from such a non-threat?
Until there is evidence that one needs protection, one can be agnostic about, and one can have an opinion that they exist or one can have an opinion that they don't exist.
I don't normally feel I need to protect myself from mass murderers or terrorist types, even though there is evidence that these types of people do exist: my opinion is that I will not be harmed by them.
Because it doesn't go so far as saying that they probably don't.
And again, how do you calculate that probability in any way for it to make sense: if it is just your gut feeling about the relative likelihood, then it is just your opinion (in which case you are really a 5 not a 6 on this issue and are telling yourself falsehoods about what you know or don't know).
And again, people act based on their opinions all the time: opinion is sufficient to affect behavior.
How would he know that if he had no way to detect electricity?
Well, if he had no evidence at all for the very existence of electricity, then he should certainly have doubted that it was present in lightning just as he should have doubted the presence of groosnarp and fleem.
The point being that the absence of evidence would be due to the absence of a means to detect electricity, not to the absence of electricity.
If you don't have a means to detect presence then you cannot test for when it is absent.
Do you have a means to test for the presence of lycanthropy in in your scenario of careful people "who can turn into a wolf"?
Message 91: Suppose someone decides to worship my left leg as a god. I believe in the existence of my left leg, but that wouldn't make me a theist, because I wouldn't classify my leg as a deity.
Nor does it make your leg supernatural. A point that the Straggles and bluegenes seem to miss consistently when they make up caricatures of supernatural beings and claim that they should be considered to be supernatural.
You would need to show that there is some supernatural essence involved before one could say something is supernatural.
Do you have a means to test for the presence of supernatural essences?
Enjoy.
Edited by RAZD, : clrty

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

This message is a reply to:
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