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Author Topic:   Solar flares affect radiometric decay rates?
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 13 of 67 (672304)
09-06-2012 9:40 AM
Reply to: Message 10 by Minnemooseus
09-06-2012 2:45 AM


MAYBE the decay rates were also higher in the past. Of course, a very high solar output itself might tend to really cook the Earth.

According to the article, the suspected culprit is neutrinos. Extra neutrinos separate from increased solar activity would not cook anything. On the other hand, neutrinos don't seem to interact with much of anything.

Also there is this line from the article.

quote:
If the mystery particle is not a neutrino, "It would have to be something we don't know about, an unknown particle that is also emitted by the sun and has this effect, and that would be even more remarkable," Sturrock said.

Personally, I think the geologic evidence independent of radiometric dating puts the Earth's age far older than the YEC time frame.

If that time frame is on the order of tens of thousands of years, but a far lesser time frame would be enough force close evolution.

Interestingly enough though, I don't think there is a case that the changes affect radio-carbon dating at all.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

The apathy of the people is enough to make every statue leap from its pedestal and hasten the resurrection of the dead. William Lloyd Garrison.

“Choose silence of all virtues, for by it you hear other men's imperfections, and conceal your own.” George Bernard Shaw


This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by Minnemooseus, posted 09-06-2012 2:45 AM Minnemooseus has seen this message

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 14 of 67 (672305)
09-06-2012 9:59 AM
Reply to: Message 11 by PurpleYouko
09-06-2012 9:04 AM


Isn't the sun slightly further away in winter?
At least it's at a lower angle to the horizon such that we don't get as much heat (and presumably less of whatever particles are hypothesized to cause this effect) from it

Jar addressed half of your post. The sun is actually closer to the earth the first few days in January of each year than at any other time during the year. January is not during the winter in the southern hemisphere.

But I think the "at least" portion is the more important issue and my understanding is the same as yours.

It is true that during the winter, in either hemisphere, we receive solar radiation, and presumably neutrinos at a more oblique angle. I would expect that the seasonal variation due to earth's tilt, and not the distance to the sun would have the larger effect.

However the amount of season variation would depend on your latitude. Less variation near the equator.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

The apathy of the people is enough to make every statue leap from its pedestal and hasten the resurrection of the dead. William Lloyd Garrison.

“Choose silence of all virtues, for by it you hear other men's imperfections, and conceal your own.” George Bernard Shaw


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NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 19 of 67 (709912)
10-30-2013 10:52 PM


Solar Flares and decay rates
PurpleYouko writes:

The Purdue team observed a drop in the decay rate a day and a half before a solar flare.

This has since been reproduced by dozens of labs around the world and it is pretty well accepted that it does indeed happen.

Citation please...

I cannot find any reports from dozens of labs, or even a single lab other than the original suspects verifying this phenomenon. The only papers I can locate using google scholar were written by Jenkins and/or Fischbach. Searching the web is useless for the obvious reasons.

Where is the data from a place other than Purdue or Stanford?


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I believe that a scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy.
Richard P. Feynman

If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass


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 Message 20 by Adminnemooseus, posted 10-30-2013 11:19 PM NoNukes has taken no action
 Message 21 by greentwiga, posted 10-31-2013 2:18 AM NoNukes has seen this message
 Message 23 by PurpleYouko, posted 10-31-2013 12:01 PM NoNukes has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 24 of 67 (710001)
10-31-2013 2:52 PM
Reply to: Message 23 by PurpleYouko
10-31-2013 12:01 PM


Re: Solar Flares and decay rates
That's 6 independent sets of data corroborating the possible effect and one attempting to debunk it

That's fine. I think the debunking paper was pretty good, but since they did not look at the same isotopes, I do discount it a bit. Of course none of the studies are looking at nuclides that are used in radiometric dating.

But:

In particular what I was looking for was not just verifications of the effect, but verifications that you could actually predict solar flares using the effect. Those are the results you said were repeated by many labs so that the concept of predicting storms with radioactivity increases or decreases was pretty well accepted. I don't believe that statement to be correct.

I am looking for support for the argument that the sun emits something that causes decay rates to decrease as opposed to :

1) the sun emits mystery X that causes decay rates to increase
2) decreased production of the suns emission of mystery X causes decay rates to decrease.

Only the solar flare stuff provides any possible indication, and even then, we don't know what actually causes the change in decay rates, so we cannot rule out possibilities 1 and 2.

That paper you provided in the previous thread regarding the variation of decay rates with shape did not prove much of anything. There was nearly as much variation in the decay rates measured for a single shape as their was between shapes, and the variation was not in a consistent direction. At best the paper indicates that a possibility worth additional investigation.

One thing I would like to note here is that the data that that Berkeley used in their rebuttal was collected only once per day over the period. This is arguably not a good enough time resolution to see the effect accurately.

Seriously? Daily is not good enough for an effect that allegedly has an annual variation? I don't see any reason why daily measurements would not sufficient absent a daily variation of a similar or larger amplitude. Can you make an argument that it daily measurements of sufficient accuracy are insufficient?


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I believe that a scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy.
Richard P. Feynman

If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass


This message is a reply to:
 Message 23 by PurpleYouko, posted 10-31-2013 12:01 PM PurpleYouko has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 25 by PurpleYouko, posted 10-31-2013 2:58 PM NoNukes has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 26 of 67 (710004)
10-31-2013 3:41 PM
Reply to: Message 25 by PurpleYouko
10-31-2013 2:58 PM


Re: Solar Flares and decay rates
The point they make is that some solar flare events are only a few hours in duration so a resolution of one data point per day (not a single measurement presumably but several combined to a mean value. At least I hope that's what they mean) is not going to see such an event happen.

I have a problem with that rationale. First, there is supposed to be an annual variation. As long as flares don't appear like clockwork, taking data once a day should be plenty of data for verifying an annual variation.

I agree that it would be possible to miss out on seeing a flare prediction, but quite frankly, that's the least well document part of this whole thing.

Al I know about the predictive qualities of this is that researchers from Purdue have patented the concept of using decay fluctuations to predict solar flairs.

Yes, they do indeed have a patent on that concept. I am patent attorney and I have reviewed the prosecution of their patent, and I can assure you that their patent is not very strong evidence that the phenomena actually exists. It is instead evidence that they submitted affidavits swearing that the phenomenon exists. The patent examiner was extremely dubious that the sun could effect decay rates, but the examiner eventually dropped his objections after the affidavits were provided and the file was appealed over his head.

I'll take a second look and see if any useful references are provided in the patent prosecution file.

Did I say many labs confirmed the predictive qualities of this data? If I did then that was not my intent.

Here is what you posted. Not sure what other interpretation to give:

The Purdue team observed a drop in the decay rate a day and a half before a solar flare.
This has since been reproduced by dozens of labs around the world and it is pretty well accepted that it does indeed happen.
Nobody knows the cause yet though.
It doesn't appear to be neutrinos or neutrons or any of the other obvious choices.

Edited by NoNukes, : grammar correction


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I believe that a scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy.
Richard P. Feynman

If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass


This message is a reply to:
 Message 25 by PurpleYouko, posted 10-31-2013 2:58 PM PurpleYouko has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 27 by PurpleYouko, posted 10-31-2013 3:52 PM NoNukes has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 28 of 67 (710009)
10-31-2013 8:11 PM
Reply to: Message 27 by PurpleYouko
10-31-2013 3:52 PM


Re: Solar Flares and decay rates
presents wrists for a good slapping

No thank you. I appreciate you clarifying your position.

the reasonably well accepted fact was that there is fluctuation of a cyclic nature

Well, I am not sure I agree, but I can accept that the ball is in my court to demonstrate the lack of acceptance. Perhaps I will take a stab at it after I review what is available.

ABE:

What I am currently looking at are the proceedings of the US Patent Office which granted the patent you mentioned, and the proceedings of the European Patent Office (EPO) which did not grant the application. I find the EPO analysis interesting. You can find it yourself here:

https://register.epo.org/application?number=EP08863637&ln...

Look for a documents explaining the reasons for not granting the patent.

First some legalese.

In both the US and European application, the claims of the patent involve detecting radiation from a radioactive element and using a computer to correlate the detected radiation with a solar flare (that follows the act of detecting).

In order to be granted a patent, the inventor is required to disclose exactly how the invention worked. In their application, Fishback and Jenkins disclose the details of exactly one solar flare event, and one set of decay data. No details whatsoever are provided for telling how to correlate such data to solar flares.

The EPO found the disclosure to be insufficient to allow the public to actually build a solar flare predictor because of this lack of detail.

In thinking about this issue, remember that the F&J insist that sometimes solar flares are preceded by an increase in decay rates, and sometimes a decrease. Perhaps these "predictions" are of the Nostradamus variety, where the prediction is only recognized after the event actually happens.

The EPO also found the efforts to blame the result on neutrinos, which was what the inventors described in the application, almost laughable (although they were able to avoid putting their guffaws into their official response). Apparently the inventors are still telling their attorney that neutrinos are responsible, something that nobody else seems to believe anymore.

Anyhow, the Fishbach and Jenkins did disclose quite a few references, including a few they had nothing to do with, and I'll discuss them if we are still interested in this topic.

ABE:

I just realized that I know how to build a solar flare predictor. Just build an alarm that beeps once a day. I'm sure that every single solar flare will be preceded by at least a beep or two.

Edited by NoNukes, : Add some detail

Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.

Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.

Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I believe that a scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy.
Richard P. Feynman

If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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NoNukes
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 31 of 67 (732376)
07-07-2014 12:44 AM
Reply to: Message 30 by OS
07-07-2014 12:14 AM


Public Service Announcement
But the Solis has negatively polarized charges of photons.

I'm tutoring some students this summer on the topic of classical physics. I am using the Openstax textbook, "College Physics", developed by Rice University as a reference. Rice says that at least 55 universities are using the textbook for a course.

This excellent text book is available online for free. Chapters 30 and onward deal with nuclear physics, with chapter 31 dealing most directly with the subject on which you are speaking. Well, at least as best as I can tell.

As Beyonce once put it, "Let me upgrade you."


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei

If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass


This message is a reply to:
 Message 30 by OS, posted 07-07-2014 12:14 AM OS has taken no action

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 33 of 67 (732380)
07-07-2014 5:24 AM
Reply to: Message 32 by OS
07-07-2014 3:02 AM


I will stick with my 11e University Physics with Modern Physics by Young and Freeman. Though the text you are using doesn't look watered down.

The book you have should be fine. What does it say about "charges of photons"? or negative polarization of such?

ABE:

In your textbook, you might start with chapters 32 and 33. Light polarization is discussed in section 33.5.

Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei

If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass


This message is a reply to:
 Message 32 by OS, posted 07-07-2014 3:02 AM OS has taken no action

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 35 of 67 (732394)
07-07-2014 9:03 AM
Reply to: Message 34 by OS
07-07-2014 7:15 AM


Photons could have been photoelectrons;

No, the photons could not have been electrons.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei

If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass


This message is a reply to:
 Message 34 by OS, posted 07-07-2014 7:15 AM OS has taken no action

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 37 of 67 (732457)
07-07-2014 4:34 PM
Reply to: Message 36 by Percy
07-07-2014 3:25 PM


But they aren't completely unrelated. For example, an electron will emit a photon when its energy level drops.

Yes. E&M radiation can be emitted whenever a charge is accelerated, including during deceleration. For example Bremsstrahlung radiation can be emitted when the path of an electron is changed by interaction with a heavy nucleus.

But I think OS's confusion is far more pervasive than a mere confusion of photoelectrons with photons. For example, what is he saying about a laser beam attracting metal? About negatively and positively charged polarization, among other things? Why does he think metal is positively charged?


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei

If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass


This message is a reply to:
 Message 36 by Percy, posted 07-07-2014 3:25 PM Percy has seen this message

Replies to this message:
 Message 38 by OS, posted 07-07-2014 4:58 PM NoNukes has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 40 of 67 (732525)
07-08-2014 12:44 AM
Reply to: Message 38 by OS
07-07-2014 4:58 PM


but the light beam pulls the metal using a negative charge.

About 2 out of every three of your posts contain incorrect statements about physics. Many of your posts contain two or more demonstrably wrong statements. Why is that?


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei

If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass


This message is a reply to:
 Message 38 by OS, posted 07-07-2014 4:58 PM OS has taken no action

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 43 of 67 (732799)
07-10-2014 9:57 PM
Reply to: Message 42 by RAZD
07-10-2014 9:13 PM


What else is a poe'd boy to do?

Exactly. Nobody is that stupid.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei

If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass


This message is a reply to:
 Message 42 by RAZD, posted 07-10-2014 9:13 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
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NoNukes
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 49 of 67 (732834)
07-11-2014 2:38 PM
Reply to: Message 48 by Diomedes
07-11-2014 1:50 PM


Don't feed the troll
Secondly, charges either attract or repel. But they don't have anything to do with what 'holds the universe together'.

As ringo pointed out, if we allow OS the use of some poetry, we could interpret 'hold the universe together' to be a description of chemical bonding. If we do that we can find some truth in his post. And is there in truth no beauty?

That still leaves a couple of handfuls of manure in his post. Electrons prevent positrons from repelling too much? A complete denial that negatively charged particles repel each other? No easy justification for any of that stuff. Plenty of ugly.

Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei

If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass


This message is a reply to:
 Message 48 by Diomedes, posted 07-11-2014 1:50 PM Diomedes has taken no action

Replies to this message:
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NoNukes
Inactive Member


(2)
Message 54 of 67 (732870)
07-11-2014 7:34 PM
Reply to: Message 53 by New Cat's Eye
07-11-2014 4:49 PM


Re: Don't feed the troll
all the answers to your questions, and even ones you didn't know you have, can be found here:

Ouch, CS. That link goes to a very bad place.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei

If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass


This message is a reply to:
 Message 53 by New Cat's Eye, posted 07-11-2014 4:49 PM New Cat's Eye has seen this message

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 58 of 67 (732917)
07-12-2014 12:45 PM
Reply to: Message 57 by New Cat's Eye
07-12-2014 12:01 PM


Re: Don't feed the troll
This isn't really a good place for cranks to write gibberish.

Actually, I don't mind the cranks so much as long as they do the job properly. The best cranks don't just spout bad science. They also have a fully developed philosophy behind the science that can be fun to probe, poke at, and laugh about dismissively.

But just spouting a couple of silly incoherent concepts or denying one or two well known physical laws does not entertain. If OS has a framework he'd like to discuss hopefully we'll get a topic started to discuss it.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei

If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass


This message is a reply to:
 Message 57 by New Cat's Eye, posted 07-12-2014 12:01 PM New Cat's Eye has replied

Replies to this message:
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