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Author | Topic: Phat Unplugged | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Percy Member Posts: 23189 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.6 |
Minnemooseus writes in Message 423: A growing economy seems to require a growing population and especially a growing use of resources. The fact that population growth averages less than 1% per year while GDP growth averages around 3% per year (it of course varies widely) means that population growth is only one contributor to GDP. The other key contributor, and a more significant one, is productivity. Here's a graph of U.S. productivity from 1950 to 2015:
--Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 23189 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.6 |
Minnemooseus writes in Message 426: Minnemooseus writes in Message 423: A growing economy seems to require a growing population and ESPECIALLY a growing use of resources. You didn't respond to the part that I've now "bolded". Had you said, "Water boils at 100°C," I wouldn't have responded to that, either. --Percy Edited by Percy, : Grammar.
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Percy Member Posts: 23189 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.6 |
Though we express it differently, I think we agree. The world is already fucked. There isn't enough time or enough determination to turn things around and keep the world from passing that 1.5°C threshold. The poster-child for climate change, ironically enough politically, is going to to Florida, which in 50 years will look like this:
Most of Miami will be gone, though some will remain as an island. Fort Lauderdale will be gone, though much of Boca Raton will survive. Fort Myers, the recent target of so many storms and so much flooding, will finally be at peace with only the sound of an occasional wave breaking the silence. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 23189 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.6
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Phat is once again bringing random YouTube videos into the debate. In the case of Jay Martin he's also using the Argument from Authority fallacy. What Jay Martin or his guests think aren't what matters.
Phat must instead offer evidence and arguments built from that evidence. This he has never done, and Jay Martin should never even have been mentioned. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 23189 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.6
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I wish I had time to research this a little more, but I don't so just a couple quick thoughts.
The limit on what constitutes a felony being raised to $950, it feels like that had to happen because of all the inflation that had occurred since the limit was set to $400 in 1982. It feels like one of those issues where a lot has been written, both pro and con, and so studies and articles can be found that endorse whatever side one happens to be on. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 23189 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.6
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I'm not sure why I'm replying, because the same issues that keep making you believe you're making effective arguments will also keep you from understanding my comments, none of which you'll ever actually respond to anyway. But what the heck, here goes.
Phat writes in Message 455: Percy writes: I am not using random anything. I listen to a select group of people all involved in finance and investing and I read and listen to what they have to say. Phat is once again bringing random YouTube videos into the debate. In the case of Jay Martin he's also using the Argument from Authority fallacy. What Jay Martin or his guests think isn't what matters. After reading and listening to what they have to say, then you have to come here and present their evidence and arguments in your own words. You never do this.
All that you have managed to source are government websites with limited information. You likely trust them. I question them. Then you're questioning ephemera, because I have never done this. What led you to speak falsely? Percy writes: Phat must instead offer evidence and arguments built from that evidence Lets start with a few charts. From Yahoo Finance. (Look at the ten-year Bond and tell me that treasuries are continuing to be a secure future and bedrock for global financial investing!Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News Find the evidence on that webpage that supports your case and present it here.
As of this morning, before the markets have opened, Gold is at an all-time high. My so-called "YouTube" conmen mentioned that Gold was being used more and more often on a global market as a hedge and as a primary trade rather than using the traditional mode of settling with US Treasuries. You're stating conclusions without evidence or argument.
The sources also mentioned that BRICS was expanding from the original 5 nations to as many as 43. What sources? You haven't provided any, and even if you had they would only be as supporting references. You must present the evidence yourself.
They mentioned that a BRICS currency backed by gold would in time challenge the US Dollar. This is happening. Instead of just declaring that "this is happening", you must instead present evidence and argument for that position.
Silver lags behind Gold historically, but silver has outperformed Gold in 2024. Many think a bull run in silver will begin as early as October and continue into 2025. This statement about silver lacks any explanation for how it ties to gold. Also, "many think" is not a valid argument.
2 Narratives - 1 Truth . This article was written by Roger, otherwise known as Bald Guy Money on YouTube. Roger is no con nor is he clueless about the events happening in the world at this point. Granted Peter Schiff is shifty, just as Irwin was. There are rubes out there, but not everyone who attempts to link global events with finance is automatically a con or a grifter. We don't care what Roger the Bald Guy says. Tell us the evidence and arguments behind his conclusions.
I have been challenged here before about my concerns about the BRICS, but I am finding more and more evidence that they are a genuine challenge to US Dollar dominance. So you're finding all this evidence but never presenting it here? Why not?
The shift will happen quicker than you think. And you think so why?
The Battle for the BRICS Why the Future of the Bloc Will Shape Global Order In this article from Foreign Affairs magazine, the rapid growth of the BRICS trading bloc is now challenging the G7. quote: Do you even know what "GDP in purchasing power parity terms" means? Anyway, how does the rest of the world becoming more competitive economically while growing in population lead to the demise of the dollar as the preferred currency? You never explain.
Critics may point out that the values of BRICS members are much more at odds than the solidarity of the G7. Still, the evidence shows that Putin has stirred this thing into an economic war against the United States and its interests and that the strategy is slowly working. There's "an economic war against the United States and it's interests" stirred up by Putin? And it's working? Are you planning to back that up with any evidence or argument? Your quote from the article certainly doesn't do that:
quote: Moving on:
Also in the news lately is the pronouncement that China is having a large economic crisis that may be too late to stop. A declining Chinese economy would seem to argue against the dollar's demise.
Regarding your subtitle, Jay Martin talks about many of these events on his podcast. You really should get out more. You should support your positions with evidence and arguments. If Jay Martin is providing you with these then you should include them in your messages. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 23189 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.6 |
Phat writes: Percy always asks me to put stuff in my own words but its hard to do. If I agree with a particular point made by someone else what am I supposed to do? Plagarize them? They usually state the (obvious) point better than I could. When you're explaining something you understand then you will just naturally put it in your own words. When you're explaining something you don't understand then you will, by necessity, be forced to use someone else's words or make something up. You do both. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 23189 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.6 |
DrJones* writes in Message 467: You don't know how often I make what I think to be a decent post only to have it criticized by the Peanut Gallery.
if your argument is easy to criticize then it probably isn't a very good argument. Also, we're not the peanut gallery. We're the people he's in discussion with. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 23189 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.6
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Phat writes in Message 470: I was under the prior assumption that the peanut gallery was simply a group of critics, watching from the sidelines. That's the definition from online dictionaries, and maybe they're right, but that's not how I thought it was defined. Unfortunately I'm traveling now and can't access my home dictionary, which is much more thorough than online dictionaries, but I thought a peanut gallery was a group casting comments from the sidelines that can be critical, humorous, informational, etc.
I fully admit that I dont know everything nor am I more intelligent than any of you but I consider myself an equal. No one cares who's more intelligent than who. What matters is who can support their positions with evidence and arguments. All you need do is, after making a declaration (like "This will happen sooner than you think"), ask yourself, "How do I know this is so?" That will lead you on a search for evidence which you can use to build supporting arguments. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 23189 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.6
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Phat writes in Message 472: Percy writes: Duly noted, though in the case of some of my pet arguments evidence is not an easy thing to find. No one cares who's more intelligent than who. What matters is who can support their positions with evidence and arguments. All you need do is, after making a declaration (like "This will happen sooner than you think"), ask yourself, "How do I know this is so?" That will lead you on a search for evidence which you can use to build supporting arguments. This sounds like you've put the cart before the horse, as if you're arguing a position for which you hope evidence is out there but that you don't know of any yet.
Concerning you, you always assume that my responses are determined by my blood sugar or by damage from diabetes, which may be somewhat accurate yet is in my opinion a bit condescending. Have you forgotten when you took a self-imposed absence from the board because of something along the lines of having trouble thinking clearly? I got the diabetes angle from you, and reading up on the topic I discovered improper diabetes management can cause cognitive problems. But I don't think it's just me. I think we're all looking for explanations for what's behind your change from loving, compassionate Phat to "hang 'em from the highest yardarm," "get sucked in by YouTube personalities" Phat, and diabetes seems the most likely culprit.
Its like constantly telling someone who stutters that they stutter. ![]() Ignoring a stutter is just polite. Telling someone, "Yes, of course it's going to happen faster than we think, and you've just made a fine argument," is just lying to them, and it would greatly confound discussion to treat terrible arguments or positions as if they were of quality.
To be more specific, you are forever pointing out that *you have told me* time and time again about the fallacy of my arguments concerning financial apologetics and about how you have corrected my misinformation which (you claim) I get through parroting youtubers who peddle such information. While you are correct as to my sources, your error is assuming they are but cons. I have found that business people make it their job to predict and plan for future possible events that will affect their bottom line. The public-at-large relies on traditional media and global politics to calm them rather than to necessarily inform them. As you know, I do not trust the wisdom of politicians nor their staffs at doing anything right whereas I am more likely to trust businessmen due to the information that they get from their respective sources. You've just described your problem in a nutshell: you're constantly looking for that authority figure who understands what's going on and knows what's going to happen next. They don't exist, but if they do then you should be looking for the evidence behind their positions. This you never do.
I do ask myself some questions, however. (which is why I resent being told how to think) I can do it on my own. Not that anyone can tell. What we've observed is an almost complete lack of critical thinking skills and a simultaneous loss of your empathy and compassion.
At times, I see the vast narrative which I digest as being one giant infomercial. Business people try to persuade their audience to believe and act a certain way. Yes, yes, you've got it! They're trying to persuade you to their point of view. Ask yourself how they're trying to do this? Is it with evidence-based arguments, or with emotional appeals? If it's the former then that's great - introduce the evidence into the discussion.
To invest in certain things and not in others. Safeway has a 401k. You have one, right? So you shouldn't be making decisions about individual investments. You should only be adjusting your 401k fund mix to be an appropriate mix of growth and safety for your age, which Safeway's 401k website helps you do.
For most of you, your bullshit detectors automatically resist such persuasions and you entrust your finances to paid experts. You are making things up again. If you're imagining that everyone else here is wealthy with investments experts managing our extensive portfolios then you can disabuse yourself of that notion right now. Most people here are probably just like me, with only 401k's and Social Security.
God knows I am no financial expert as my chronic gambling has shown. Write 1000 times, "The house always wins." But I have a system, and I'll be glad to reveal it to anyone who sends me $10,000 in small unmarked bills. ![]() Where you and I differ is that you warn me that I am easily persuaded and that my blood sugar swings can and do often alter my perspective and my critical thinking. I try and persuade you that I have good intuition whereas you challenge that and tell me to get help. I stand by all that. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 23189 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.6 |
I've probably told this story before, so just briefly, a few decades ago I had some spare money that I decided to invest in the stock market. I spent hours analyzing company's finances, management and industry and figuring out when to buy and when to sell. After about five years I found I had been outperformed, by quite a bit, by both the Dow and the S&P. I became discouraged and abandoned the effort. Whatever stocks were in my portfolio when I quit I just left there. I was disgusted with the whole effort.
It was another ten years before I checked in on my stock account again, and to my surprise the stocks, overall, had done very well, beating both the Dow and the S&P. It turns out buy (quality stocks) and hold works. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 23189 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.6 |
You don't want experts. You want to explore the evidence people are basing their argumentation around. Of what value is an expert with bad evidence and/or arguments, and how will you know whether an expert deserves that appellation unless you examine and understand his evidence and arguments. I'm going to quote back to you all those parts of the the rest of your message that contain evidence, evidence-based arguments, or unequivocally true statements:
...crickets... Now here's some feedback about some of it. First, you need to explain how a gold-based system is going to work when the size of the world economy is, and has been for some time, larger than the supply of gold, and the gap is growing. You always ignore this question.
While it could be argued that Republicans are more likely to be buyers of gold and/or silver, the jury is still out on what qualifies Democrats as financial experts. Not everyone is like you. Many people understand that seeking out experts to tell them what to think is a poor solution to thinking for yourself, especially when you know how to research a topic.
My point is that fiat assets (Currencies, stocks, bonds, derivatives ETFs) are backed by nothing except the people's faith while Gold, though also supported by the faith of the people has a 5000-year track record. The value of anything, including both gold and fiat currencies, is what people are willing to pay for it. Nothing is "backed" by anything except people's faith. The "track record" for this is forever.
You rely on educated people and I rely on intuition. I hope I speak for everyone here (except you) when I say that we rely on facts and figures and make up our own minds. Your "intuition," which is fact-free as far as can be determined, has a 60-year record of failure.
You also may argue that Republicans (or conservatives in general) run on a track record of fear and security while you guys run on faith in Democracy as the ONLY wise alternative. Trump relies upon fearmongering (paraphrasing, "It will be very bad for the Jewish people if they don't vote for me.") And I think almost all non-MAGA people are supporters of Democracy, believing it to be the only system that guarantees liberty and freedom.
That may have been true in 1945 and even as recently as the first Gulf War but it has declined a lot since then. The anti-democratic authoritarian forces are all on the right, no matter what country you talk about. It is those on the left backing freedom, democracy and basic human rights. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 23189 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.6
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Phat writes in Message 491: So I read Exploiting Fear Is What Trump, Vance And Their Fascist Mob Do which was an editorial. I will admit that exploiting fear (and greed) instead of hope is one of the issues that will define this upcoming election. Though not as liberal as the newsletter seems to be, I am not going to support fear if it causes division and hopelessness among the people. How about merely supporting truth? Countries south of our border are not sending their criminals and drug addicts across our border. Will you support someone who lies about that? The southern border is not open. Will you support someone who lies about that? The 2020 election was not stolen? Will you support someone who lies about that? Tariffs are not paid for by the exporting country. Will you support someone who lies about that? How about just supporting whoever tells the truth? --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 23189 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.6 |
Phat writes in Message 506: I dunno where chatGPT gets its data but you are way off.As of this morning, Gold is at 2,675.30. That's $1000.00 more than you say. And the forecast is for that to continue going up. ChatGPT has no connection to the Internet and so does not know current prices. That means Tangle's estimates of gold's total value and of the value of all world currencies is off. If you plug in the current values, which is 244,00 metric tons of gold worldwide at $2,675.40/ounce you get, and
You've been asked this question over and over and never answer: how is a mere $23 trillion in gold going to back values ten to twenty times greater? About the rest of your message, you keep giving us names instead of evidence and arguments. You're still looking for that guy who understands what's happening and knows where things are going. Such people don't exist, but plenty of people will tell you that they're your guy. You're just a con job waiting to happen. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 23189 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.6
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You've been asked this question over and over and never answer: how is a mere $23 trillion in gold going to back currency and asset values ten to twenty times greater?
--Percy
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