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EvC Forum Side Orders Coffee House Gun Control Again

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Author Topic:   Gun Control Again
Rahvin
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Posts: 4042
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 7.7


(1)
Message 356 of 5179 (684538)
12-17-2012 7:22 PM
Reply to: Message 354 by crashfrog
12-17-2012 7:11 PM


Re: rate of violent crime in the world?
I'm not talking about theft. I'm talking about invasion. Your notion that a guy can just break into your home - where you live! while you're there! - and rifle through your things, take his pick, and it's no big deal, nothing as bad as assaulting a guy, certainly... that's just fucking insane to me, Rahvin.
A guy is invading your home and everybody on your goofy island has just decided that's no big deal.
1) You're taking a generalized crime statistic and arguing based on one specific type of crime.
2) A home invasion is scary, but again, I'd rather lose my TV than my life. I place a greater value on human lives than on basically anything else - therefore, I'd immediately accept a higher "crime" rate if the murder rate was cut by 75%. We are arguing based on data, not on anecdote. You can't win an argument about gun violence and crime simply by saying "But HOME INVASION! SCARY!" any more than I can win that same argument by saying "But think of the children!" The simple fact is that every source shows that gun bans are closely correlated with a massive decrease in gun violence and murder. I find that statistic to be highly compelling.
3) Your statistics seem to be different from those posted by others. Why should I trust your source over others?
Oh...and it's not "my island." I live in California.
But the violent crime rate is almost three times as high.
Not according to other sources...but even if it were, would you rather have triple the violent crime, or quadruple the murder rate? Because that's the choice you're making even given your statistics.
I'll repeat that: choose between triple the violent crime, or quadruple the murder rate.
No, Rahvin. But the sanctity of the home is worth more to me than human life. I can't understand the mindset that says it isn't.
And I cannot comprehend yours. A home is a place, nothing more. Whether I meet a violent criminal in my home or at work or on the street or at the bank means very little to me - either way I might be staring down the barrel of a gun.
I'd much rather the violent criminal simply not have a gun. Violent criminals with guns are, after all, more likely to kill me than a violent criminal without a gun.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity. — Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of
variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the
outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." Barash, David 1995.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 354 by crashfrog, posted 12-17-2012 7:11 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 361 by crashfrog, posted 12-17-2012 8:04 PM Rahvin has not replied

Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4042
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 7.7


Message 357 of 5179 (684539)
12-17-2012 7:26 PM
Reply to: Message 355 by crashfrog
12-17-2012 7:14 PM


But, as I've said before, Connecticut had a lower rate of firearms ownership than Canada and a lot of European countries. And yet, there's a guy shooting up a school. So clearly a low number of guns doesn't prevent these crimes.
It's like you don't even read or something.
1) CT is a small state. A person can acquire firearms very easily by crossing state lines. State laws mean little with unrestricted movement between states.
2) You're STILL confusing "reduction" with "prevention."
Gun control laws are not and never have been imagined to eliminate gun violence, only to reduce it. A single anecdote, crash, can not ever demonstrate a trend, and therefore can never show an increase or a reduction.
That's why we debate using data. Not anecdote. And it's why you've been wrong in this entire thread.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity. — Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of
variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the
outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." Barash, David 1995.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 355 by crashfrog, posted 12-17-2012 7:14 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 359 by crashfrog, posted 12-17-2012 7:53 PM Rahvin has replied

Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4042
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 7.7


Message 360 of 5179 (684545)
12-17-2012 8:03 PM
Reply to: Message 359 by crashfrog
12-17-2012 7:53 PM


It's like you don't read - as I said, we now know that he didn't acquire weapons by going across state lines. (Which state lines, Rahvin? Connecticut borders New York, Massachussets, and Rhode Island. Which one of those states, in your mind, is the free-fire gun owners paradise where Connecticut gun lovers flee to import weapons? The ownership rates of all three of those states are lower than Canada.)
I said that state laws mean little when crossing state lines is trivial.
Most school shootings involve legally purchased firearms. Reducing the legal availability of firearms will reduce gun violence. This is borne out by actual data, as opposed to anecdote.
Because that's what Percy is talking about. He's saying that the mass shootings will continue while guns are super-plentiful.
No, he's not. He's saying that fewer guns correlates to fewer incidences of gun-related violence. Mass shootings are a subset of that.
And I'm saying, recent events prove that mass shootings will continue regardless of how plentiful guns are, because this most recent one happened in a state where there were almost no guns at all.
Which means you're simply using the fallacious reasoning that anecdotes constitute more heavily weighted evidence than multi-year trends of statistics.
It's really as simple as that, crash. Statistics are more useful in decision-making than anecdotes, which are virtually useless. "Recent events" do nothing except contribute a few extra data points...and give us an emotionally charged reason to have the discussion in the first place.
The statistics show us incontrovertible evidence that banning personal ownership of firearms closely correlates with a more-than-significant drop in gun related crime and murder.
Once again: choose between tripling the violent crime rate or quadrupling the murder rate. I'm being generous here and accepting your statistics - surely you can at least answer the question.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity. — Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of
variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the
outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." Barash, David 1995.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 359 by crashfrog, posted 12-17-2012 7:53 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 362 by crashfrog, posted 12-17-2012 8:13 PM Rahvin has replied

Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4042
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 7.7


Message 364 of 5179 (684549)
12-17-2012 8:19 PM
Reply to: Message 362 by crashfrog
12-17-2012 8:13 PM


But he didn't cross state lines. He used guns from Connecticut. Even if he had crossed state lines, he'd have been in either Rhode Island, New York, or Massachussets, all of which have roughly equivalent rates of gun ownership.
So "state lines" is irrelevant. To go to the closest place near him with a significantly higher rate of ownership, he'd have to have gone to Canada. Canada! The vaunted gun-free paradise, with double the rate of ownership of any of the states I've mentioned above.
All nothing more than red herrings. Either you're simply missing the point, or you're deliberately avoiding the fact that talking about state laws is meaningless because state lines can be crossed with trivial ease.
There aren't enough mass shootings to be significant. They're like meteor strikes. Anecdotes are all there is.
I am not and never have been talking about mass shootings. I have been talking about gun related violence, of which mass shootings are merely a subset. I've said this before.
I've said this multiple times: perhaps you should consider debating stances that your opponents have actually stated, instead of the straw men you make up in your head.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity. — Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of
variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the
outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." Barash, David 1995.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 362 by crashfrog, posted 12-17-2012 8:13 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 388 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 8:09 AM Rahvin has not replied

Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4042
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 7.7


(3)
Message 418 of 5179 (684666)
12-18-2012 11:52 AM
Reply to: Message 404 by crashfrog
12-18-2012 9:59 AM


Re: Hey you Brits: Your GUN Crime is UP, not down
Suppose it were really the case that, in the UK, you're more likely to suffer violence at the hands of a home invader than in the US. (It actually is, but I know you don't yet believe that, so just suppose for a moment that it is.) Is that something you'd be prepared to believe, or would national pride force you conclude that something was wrong with the stats?
And the murder rate in the US is actually four times that of the UK.
So even if you're three times more likely to be robbed or assaulted...you're four times more likely to live.
Why is it that you continue to ignore the murder rate statistic, crash? All this ad hominem about how Panda is "irrationally ignoring evidence out of nationalistic fervor," and you're ignoring the more important statistic.
Unless you'd rather be murdered than robbed.
Edited by Rahvin, : No reason given.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity. — Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of
variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the
outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." Barash, David 1995.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 404 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 9:59 AM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 422 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 12:00 PM Rahvin has replied
 Message 518 by kofh2u, posted 12-18-2012 5:00 PM Rahvin has not replied

Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4042
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 7.7


(1)
Message 425 of 5179 (684678)
12-18-2012 12:14 PM
Reply to: Message 422 by crashfrog
12-18-2012 12:00 PM


Re: Hey you Brits: Your GUN Crime is UP, not down
Because it doesn't apply, here. The UK didn't reduce their murder statistics at all
Evidence?
It's already been shown, repeatedly, that gun bans are strongly correlated with a dramatically lower murder rate when comparing nations. You'll need to provide strong evidence to support the claim that this correlation should be disregarded. I'm afraid your bare assertion is insufficient.
allowing criminals to break into homes unfettered.
And of course that's a lie. Nothing but hyperbole. Home invasion is still a crime, and Brits can still defend their homes...they just can't do it with a firearm. You can still use a taser, or a stun gun, or a baseball bat, or pepper spray, etc. You can still call the police. If caught, the invader still goes to jail. It's not "open season" for criminals in Britain.
That's an invalid inference from the statistics. In fact, you're a lot less likely to survive a home invasion in the UK than in the US.
Evidence for this survival statistic? Again, your own bare assertion is unconvincing.
But the UK did vastly increase their rate at which criminal prowlers menaced people in their own homes.
It might help your argument if you'd stop this nonsensical translation of all "crime" to "home invasion." You make it sound like British criminals are exclusively invading people's homes, and that they're doing so without consequence, and you and I and everyone else all know that that's absolutely not true.
You do also realize, crash, that gun ownership does not and has never worked as a deterrent to prevent home invasion, right? A criminal has no way of knowing whether a given home contains a gun owner or not; most home invaders try to commit their crimes while the victims are away, so as to avoid the police or any form of confrontation. For the remainder...the possibility of a homeowner with a gun being present simply escalates the threat.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity. — Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of
variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the
outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." Barash, David 1995.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 422 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 12:00 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 431 by xongsmith, posted 12-18-2012 12:29 PM Rahvin has not replied
 Message 432 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 12:29 PM Rahvin has not replied

Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4042
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 7.7


(3)
Message 430 of 5179 (684683)
12-18-2012 12:25 PM
Reply to: Message 427 by crashfrog
12-18-2012 12:15 PM


Re: And so the pendulum swings again.
I don't understand it, either. You implicitly understand that people want drugs and don't particularly care if they're legal, that you don't get enforcement of drug laws "for free" but rather at a steep human cost, demand for drugs drives a vast, underground importation network, and that the War on Drugs has been a manifest failure.
It is orders of magnitude easier to produce drugs than it is to manufacture firearms and ammunition. Many drugs just grow out of the ground, no effort needed. For others, a "lab" can be constructed in an average kitchen with minimal cost and using ingredients easily available.
Firearms and ammunition require far more specialized materials. Yes, there would be an immediate "black market." It already exists. But reducing the legal availability makes it more difficult to acquire guns and ammo...and without a method of production as simple as planting a pot clone in some soil or making a meth lab or swilling up some bath tub hooch, a simple ban will actually be able to create the attrition that substance prohibition has never been capable of.
I don't follow that. It's amazing to me to see the people who complain about the encroachment of "law and order" government power into our schools and private lives, who complain about the enormous human cost of mandatory sentencing and "zero tolerance", who complain about how all politicians are "tough on crime" but nobody ever stops to think about the rights of those we're getting tough on, turn around on a goddamned dime and evince such utter faith in the power of government not to completely misuse the exact same rights they've already misused, because now we're getting rid of guns instead of drugs, and that's totally different, right?
Nobody here has even once suggested that we should pattern a firearms ban on the "war on drugs." Not once. Except you.
Bans don;t need to take that form. We don;t need those kinds of searches, and we don't need "zero tolerance" or mandatory sentencing.
Once again: you should probably stop arguing against straw men that exist only in your own mind. Doing so does not help your argument. At all.
ABE
perfect interdiction of weapons coming in from Mexico to fill the "guns vacuum"
You do know that most of the guns in Mexico come from the US, right?
Edited by Rahvin, : No reason given.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity. — Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of
variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the
outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." Barash, David 1995.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 427 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 12:15 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 435 by NoNukes, posted 12-18-2012 12:45 PM Rahvin has not replied
 Message 440 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 12:57 PM Rahvin has not replied

Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4042
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 7.7


(1)
Message 436 of 5179 (684690)
12-18-2012 12:52 PM
Reply to: Message 434 by crashfrog
12-18-2012 12:43 PM


Re: Hey you Brits: Your GUN Crime is UP, not down
I guess, except for all the cases I googled where the homeowner who assaulted a burglar got a longer, harsher sentence than the invader he'd assaulted.
...and you don't think that news sources that would turn up on a Google search would specifically select for "outrages" like that, while cases where the burglar received an appropriate sentence and the homeowner was never even charged would never even make the news for you to find in a search?
The words "confirmation bias" spring to mind.
That's the issue, here. Not that homeowners aren't afforded equal protection under your law, but that criminals are. The notion that criminals have a right to safety, to not being assaulted, as they invade homes and put others at risk is insane. It's the insane notion that criminals should be expected to bear the physical risk of their crimes.
Apparently you believe that a criminal forfeits his life the moment he commits a crime. Or that criminals stop being human beings. Tell me, crash, why do we not execute thieves?

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity. — Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of
variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the
outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." Barash, David 1995.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 434 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 12:43 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 441 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 1:03 PM Rahvin has not replied

Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4042
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 7.7


(1)
Message 448 of 5179 (684703)
12-18-2012 1:15 PM
Reply to: Message 446 by crashfrog
12-18-2012 1:13 PM


Re: Hey you Brits: Your GUN Crime is UP, not down
Of course it should be immediate, if your position is that illegal things are harder to get.
Harder to get is not the same as harder to have in your possession.
Gun bans don't magically poof away guns. They just make them harder to get, so their numbers decrease over time.
Not immediately.
Tis has been stated multiple times in this thread.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity. — Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of
variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the
outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." Barash, David 1995.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 446 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 1:13 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 450 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 1:18 PM Rahvin has replied

Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4042
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 7.7


Message 452 of 5179 (684707)
12-18-2012 1:19 PM
Reply to: Message 449 by crashfrog
12-18-2012 1:16 PM


That's funny. Gallup is saying that gun ownership is back up to its highest point since 1993, and is nearing its peak from 1960.
From here.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity. — Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of
variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the
outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." Barash, David 1995.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 449 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 1:16 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 456 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 1:24 PM Rahvin has not replied

Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4042
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 7.7


(1)
Message 455 of 5179 (684711)
12-18-2012 1:23 PM
Reply to: Message 450 by crashfrog
12-18-2012 1:18 PM


Re: Hey you Brits: Your GUN Crime is UP, not down
Because what, they evaporate? Even if you made guns literally impossible to make, you'd still have just as many guns as you would year after year, minus the ones that, I don't know, fell down between the couch cushions or something.
Voluntary surrender. Expenditure of all ammunition. Breakage. You name it.
Guns are a durable good. Emphasis on the durable, a lot of Americans own rifles manufactured just after the Revolutionary War. They can still be fired even to this day.
...Right.
What percentage of Revolutionary War firearms are still around and in firing condition today?
Because just saying "many are still around" is just another meaningless anecdote. Not useful data. You can't predict the rate of attrition from it, which means you can't actually tell one way or the other from your simple statement whether guns increase or decrease.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity. — Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of
variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the
outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." Barash, David 1995.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 450 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 1:18 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 458 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 1:28 PM Rahvin has not replied
 Message 459 by Tempe 12ft Chicken, posted 12-18-2012 1:30 PM Rahvin has replied

Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4042
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 7.7


Message 460 of 5179 (684716)
12-18-2012 1:34 PM
Reply to: Message 459 by Tempe 12ft Chicken
12-18-2012 1:30 PM


Re: Hey you Brits: Your GUN Crime is UP, not down
I am sure that I can find more, but a percentage, that is a ridiculous request without more knowledge.
That's rather the point. Crashfrog has no idea how well firearms survive from the Revolutionary War. He can't, because the data required to calculate such a thing does not exist. Therefore he cannot claim that the existence of some Revolutionary guns demonstrates the "durability" of firearms.
He's making claims based on anecdote, not data. He doesn't know, he cannot know, but he's pretending he does.
Hell, Revolutionary firearms were far less complicated than modern guns. I don't think the comparison would be valid even if he did have the data.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity. — Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of
variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the
outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." Barash, David 1995.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 459 by Tempe 12ft Chicken, posted 12-18-2012 1:30 PM Tempe 12ft Chicken has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 463 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 1:39 PM Rahvin has replied
 Message 464 by Tempe 12ft Chicken, posted 12-18-2012 1:42 PM Rahvin has replied
 Message 491 by RAZD, posted 12-18-2012 2:15 PM Rahvin has not replied

Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4042
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 7.7


Message 465 of 5179 (684721)
12-18-2012 1:44 PM
Reply to: Message 463 by crashfrog
12-18-2012 1:39 PM


Re: Hey you Brits: Your GUN Crime is UP, not down
I never claimed to. That's a ridiculous thing that you asked for, not me.
What?
Here are your words. YOU brought up Revolutionary firearms. Not me.
Because what, they evaporate? Even if you made guns literally impossible to make, you'd still have just as many guns as you would year after year, minus the ones that, I don't know, fell down between the couch cushions or something.
Guns are a durable good. Emphasis on the durable, a lot of Americans own rifles manufactured just after the Revolutionary War. They can still be fired even to this day.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity. — Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of
variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the
outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." Barash, David 1995.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 463 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 1:39 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 468 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 1:45 PM Rahvin has replied

Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4042
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 7.7


Message 467 of 5179 (684723)
12-18-2012 1:45 PM
Reply to: Message 464 by Tempe 12ft Chicken
12-18-2012 1:42 PM


Re: Hey you Brits: Your GUN Crime is UP, not down
Yes, you are correct he cannot calculate a percentage. However, I think that finding 138 guns for sale in working condition by checking only two sites does kind of imply that guns are made to be pretty durable. It is by no means conclusive evidence but it could show us that at least 138 guns could be sitting around from our current manufacture in 238 years, and that is only based on two websites.
And are those originals in firing condition?
Or are they replicas?

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity. — Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of
variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the
outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." Barash, David 1995.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 464 by Tempe 12ft Chicken, posted 12-18-2012 1:42 PM Tempe 12ft Chicken has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 472 by Tempe 12ft Chicken, posted 12-18-2012 1:48 PM Rahvin has not replied
 Message 484 by Theodoric, posted 12-18-2012 2:05 PM Rahvin has not replied

Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4042
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 7.7


Message 470 of 5179 (684727)
12-18-2012 1:47 PM
Reply to: Message 468 by crashfrog
12-18-2012 1:45 PM


Re: Hey you Brits: Your GUN Crime is UP, not down
What what? I never claimed that I knew what percentage of Revolutionary arms survive to this day. Where on Earth would I have claimed I knew something unknowable?
You claimed that firearms are extremely durable, and used Revolutionary firearms as an example to prove your point.
But your example was flawed. You do not know how durable Revolutionary firearms were. You brought it up. You used the example.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity. — Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of
variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the
outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." Barash, David 1995.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 468 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 1:45 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 476 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 1:53 PM Rahvin has not replied

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