Register | Sign In


Understanding through Discussion


EvC Forum active members: 64 (9164 total)
6 online now:
Newest Member: ChatGPT
Post Volume: Total: 916,863 Year: 4,120/9,624 Month: 991/974 Week: 318/286 Day: 39/40 Hour: 5/6


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   The Nature of Scepticism
ringo
Member (Idle past 440 days)
Posts: 20940
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005


(1)
Message 240 of 271 (717099)
01-24-2014 10:41 AM
Reply to: Message 219 by Stile
01-23-2014 12:06 PM


Re: Change of Pace
Style writes:
How does any of this change whether or not the observations are objective?
The villagers' "objective" conclusion is based on an inadequate subset of the available evidence. They're ignoring the fact that wolves exist.
Bringing the example into the present day, suppose the boy pulls a fire alarm. The firefighters arrive and there's no fire. The boy pulls the alarm again and again the firefighters find no fire. This goes on and on but the firefighters keep coming - because they've drawn an actual objective conclusion that there could be a fire.
Stile writes:
I think one of RAZD's issues, and I think it's rather prevalent in the general population... is that some people think that just because it's objective and evidenced... then it's necessarily "real."
My issue is that the villagers conclusion is not really objective.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 219 by Stile, posted 01-23-2014 12:06 PM Stile has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 242 by Stile, posted 01-24-2014 11:34 AM ringo has seen this message but not replied

  
ringo
Member (Idle past 440 days)
Posts: 20940
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005


(1)
Message 241 of 271 (717100)
01-24-2014 10:45 AM
Reply to: Message 220 by Modulous
01-23-2014 1:29 PM


Re: mad genius
Modulous writes:
Therefore - would it not be true that multiple false positives actually do effect the probability that the next alarm will be correct?
The numeric value of the probability is irrelevant. What matters is the risk of being wrong. The boy-who-cried-wolf story is about resource management. Can we afford not to prepare for a real wolf?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 220 by Modulous, posted 01-23-2014 1:29 PM Modulous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 243 by New Cat's Eye, posted 01-24-2014 12:07 PM ringo has seen this message but not replied
 Message 246 by Modulous, posted 01-24-2014 2:13 PM ringo has seen this message but not replied

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024