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Author Topic:   How long would it take for a novel alelle to be fixated in a population?
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 312 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 17 of 64 (692909)
03-08-2013 12:52 PM
Reply to: Message 16 by CoolBeans
03-08-2013 12:38 PM


Re: Well. then about how much time .
How many generations would it take for allele frequencies to change.specifically mammals with low offspring.
Well, that depends.
If you look at what Haldane did (according to your quote) he tried to produce a ball-park figure for how many deaths would be required due to the less-adaptive trait being selected against. It turned out that in his math that could be answered in terms of a multiple of population size no matter how strong the selective pressure was, and no matter what the population size was.
But the question of how much time it would take to achieve fixation does in fact depend on the strength of the selective pressure, and quite possibly on population size as well (I'll have to think about that). That's a different question.

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Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 312 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(3)
Message 20 of 64 (692916)
03-08-2013 1:09 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by CoolBeans
03-08-2013 10:38 AM


Haldane calculated that no more than 1,667 beneficial substitutions could have occurred in the supposed 10 million years since the last common ancestor of apes and humans. This is a mere one substitution per 300 generations, on average.
If any of this is true then it would be a problem.
Well of course Haldane did not calculate that as such, the creationist is simply lying.
But in the second place, why would it be a problem? It may well be the case that only 1,667 beneficial mutations separate humans from chimps. It might be a lot less, I wouldn't be at all surprised. ReMine doesn't know --- nobody knows at present --- how many beneficial mutations actually make the difference.
What ReMine is doing (implicitly or explicitly, I don't know how stupid he is) is assuming without the slightest shred of justification that every genetic difference between chimps and humans is the result of a beneficial mutation favored by natural selection rather than a neutral mutation fixed by genetic drift. And there is no reason at all for thinking this except that he wants to come up with some crappy creationist argument.
Now it can be shown mathematically (I've done this myself, I'll dig out the working if you're interested) that genetic drift would account for all the differences between humans and chimps over the last seven million years or so, if all the variations were neutral (which they aren't). If we wish to introduce Haldane into the argument, we need to know how many of these differences are beneficial and favored by natural selection, rather than neutral and fixed by genetic drift. And ReMine doesn't know that any more than anyone else does.
Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.

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Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 312 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 26 of 64 (692927)
03-08-2013 2:05 PM
Reply to: Message 22 by CoolBeans
03-08-2013 1:32 PM


That is !atten's paper, not ReMine's. He argied that it doesnt matter if they are banafitial.
Then he's wrong, because the math clearly shows that he's wrong.
It can be proved with some elegance that the rate of fixation of neutral mutations in the population is exactly equal to the rate of occurrence of neutral mutations in the individual. In fact, if I remember rightly, this was first proved by Haldane.
And of course it matters. Haldane's result (the so-called "dilemma") is specifically about fixation by natural selection. It refers to the number of deaths that would need to occur if selection was operating, because of those individuals dying because selection was operating against them. If natural selection isn't operating, then Haldane's result doesn't apply.

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Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 312 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(2)
Message 39 of 64 (692948)
03-08-2013 3:51 PM
Reply to: Message 28 by CoolBeans
03-08-2013 2:33 PM


So what you are saying is that alot of the changes are due to neutral mutation.
I would be happy if you read his paper.
I've read the paper that you linked to, so you should be happy.
What in particular in his paper would you like me to refute?
It's the same old crap: he claims that the number of beneficial mutations separating humans from chimps must be fewer than 1,667. I myself would not be surprised if the actual number of beneficial mutations was fewer than 100. This is not even relevant to the total number of mutations, good, bad, or indifferent.
Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.
Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.

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Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 312 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 40 of 64 (692949)
03-08-2013 4:15 PM
Reply to: Message 36 by CoolBeans
03-08-2013 3:31 PM


Infinite population size? — Evolutionists sometimes claim Haldane assumed an unrealistic "infinite population size." That is untrue. If Haldane had done that, then the total-cost of substitution would always be infinite — when Haldane calculated its average value is 30. So Haldane obviously did not use an infinite population size.
Mad people are funny.

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Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 312 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 43 of 64 (692956)
03-08-2013 6:02 PM
Reply to: Message 41 by CoolBeans
03-08-2013 4:55 PM


1667 base pair substitutions?
this what he is claiming.
Well, let's be clear about this.
If he is claiming that Haldane's work proves that that is an upper limit on the number of base pair substitutions that can occur, then he is a filthy stupid drooling liar. Because Haldane's math only applies to beneficial mutations.
If he is claiming that 1,667 is greater than the number of beneficial mutations that have actually occurred, then he is a filthy stupid drooling liar. Because no-one has counted them.
If, as is usually the case with creationists, he is juggling with words and with figures while not committing himself to any actual claim, then he is a filthy stupid drooling liar. Because he is pretending to have a quantitative argument when he does not.
Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.

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Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 312 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 45 of 64 (692959)
03-08-2013 6:16 PM
Reply to: Message 44 by CoolBeans
03-08-2013 6:11 PM


You are right on both parts, though. I mean 1667 base pair mutations seems to be a little low. What mistakes could he have made on his paper?
Well, if he would say 1667 beneficial base pair mutations, then he might be correct within an order of magnitude. And then it would be clear why the creationist attempt to make capital out of this is worthless garbage.
Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.

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 Message 47 by CoolBeans, posted 03-08-2013 6:39 PM Dr Adequate has replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 312 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 48 of 64 (692963)
03-08-2013 7:28 PM
Reply to: Message 46 by CoolBeans
03-08-2013 6:30 PM


So are those 1667 base pair mutatons enough?
No-one knows.

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Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 312 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 49 of 64 (692964)
03-08-2013 7:29 PM
Reply to: Message 47 by CoolBeans
03-08-2013 6:39 PM


Why is it worthless?
I thought I'd explained that. Do you have any specific questions?

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Replies to this message:
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Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 312 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 51 of 64 (692971)
03-08-2013 8:18 PM
Reply to: Message 50 by CoolBeans
03-08-2013 7:38 PM


So there would be 1667 beneficial base pair mutations and neutral mutations to account for our species.
No. Read it through again until you understand it.
Haldane's math relates to the fixation of beneficial variations by natural selection. It does not relate to the fixation of neutral mutations by genetic drift, where you get a completely different answer.

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Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 312 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 53 of 64 (692973)
03-08-2013 8:32 PM
Reply to: Message 52 by CoolBeans
03-08-2013 8:24 PM


I meant that it would be the 1667 mutations plus the neutral mutations. I should have been more clear. My fault
OK. If Haldane's assumptions were right (and some have suggested that they are not) then a ball-park figure of about 2000 beneficial mutations, give or take an order of magnitude, might be about right. I wouldn't be surprised if it was rather fewer.

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Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 312 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 56 of 64 (692984)
03-09-2013 12:33 AM
Reply to: Message 54 by CoolBeans
03-08-2013 8:38 PM


please explain how 1667 mutations would be sufficient ...
Er ... by being sufficient? What do you mean, "how"?
I'm not the one pretending to have a quantitative argument. It would be up to the creationists to show that the number of beneficial mutations they calculate can have happened are insufficient to explain the observed effects. Instead, since they can't do that, they obfuscate the distinction between beneficial mutations and neutral mutations, and they tell lies. Once I've pointed out that their argument is bullshit, I feel that my work here is done.

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Replies to this message:
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