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Author Topic:   Great debate: radiocarbon dating, Mindspawn and Coyote/RAZD
RAZD
Member (Idle past 104 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 20 of 119 (711236)
11-16-2013 8:44 AM
Reply to: Message 19 by mindspawn
11-16-2013 3:32 AM


Hello mindspawn - let's start with some defs and give me your best shot?
But I have no objection to RAZD substituting for you. ...

Thank you. I will now stop posting on the Peanut Gallery for Great debate: radiocarbon dating, Mindspawn and Coyote/RAZD thread and shift my attention here.

Below are some definitions that I think may be useful in this discussion, as these terms have been used frequently and I want to be sure we mean the same thing when they are used:

ac•cu•ra•cy
[ak-yer-uh-see] noun, plural ac•cu•ra•cies.

  1. the condition or quality of being true, correct, or exact; freedom from error or defect; precision or exactness; correctness.
  2. Chemistry, Physics. the extent to which a given measurement agrees with the standard value for that measurement. Compare precision (def 6).
  3. Mathematics . the degree of correctness of a quantity, expression, etc. Compare precision (def 5).

In scientific use Accuracy means your ability to hit the bulls eye of a target. If we take a bow and shoot 200 arrows at a target, and all the arrow locations average out to a bull's eye, then the average result is very accurate, the closer they cluster to the bull's eye the greater the degree of accuracy, even though there may be significant error in any one shot and there may not even be a single bull's eye in the whole group. There could be a fairly large degree of scatter in the data and still have an accurate overall average result.

pre•ci•sion
[pri-sizh-uhn] noun

  1. the state or quality of being precise.
  2. accuracy; exactness: to arrive at an estimate with precision.
  3. mechanical or scientific exactness: a lens ground with precision.
  4. punctiliousness; strictness: precision in one's business dealings.
  5. Mathematics . the degree to which the correctness of a quantity is expressed. Compare accuracy (def 3).

Again, in scientific usage Precision means the ability to replicate exactly the same results. With our bow and arrow example we now have 200 arrows all clustered very close together, but they may or may not be located near the bull's eye. There is very little scatter in this case, so it is highly precise, as the degree of scatter defines the precision.

As you can see these terms are not quite the same, and ideally we would like to have a system that is both accurate and precise.

con•cord•ance
[kon-kawr-dns] noun

  1. agreement; concord; harmony: the concordance of the membership.
  2. an alphabetical index of the principal words of a book, as of the Bible, with a reference to the passage in which each occurs.
  3. an alphabetical index of subjects or topics.
  4. (in genetic studies) the degree of similarity in a pair of twins with respect to the presence or absence of a particular disease or trait.

concordance would be a general relationship between two or more factors that would result in similar but not identical results.

cor•re•la•tion
[kawr-uh-ley-shuhn, kor-] noun

  1. mutual relation of two or more things, parts, etc.: Studies find a positive correlation between severity of illness and nutritional status of the patients. Synonyms: similarity, correspondence, matching; parallelism, equivalence; interdependence, interrelationship, interconnection.
  2. the act of correlating or state of being correlated.
  3. Statistics. the degree to which two or more attributes or measurements on the same group of elements show a tendency to vary together.
  4. Physiology . the interdependence or reciprocal relations of organs or functions.
  5. Geology . the demonstrable equivalence, in age or lithology, of two or more stratigraphic units, as formations or members of such.

Correlation means taking two or more systems and comparing them to see if they reflect similar results and this is usually shown graphically. Often a "best fit" mathematical curve can be derived to fit the data. A correlation is generally more precise than concordance.

cal•i•brate
[kal-uh-breyt] verb (used with object), cal•i•brated, cal•i•brat•ing.

  1. to determine, check, or rectify the graduation of (any instrument giving quantitative measurements).
  2. to divide or mark with gradations, graduations, or other indexes of degree, quantity, etc., as on a thermometer, measuring cup, or the like.
  3. to determine the correct range for (an artillery gun, mortar, etc.) by observing where the fired projectile hits.
  4. to plan or devise (something) carefully so as to have a precise use, application, appeal, etc.: a sales strategy calibrated to rich investors.

Calibration means taking a precise correlation and determining what needs to be done to correct the precise result to obtain more accurate results.

Another word used in the debate so far is consilience:

quote:
In science and history, consilience (also convergence of evidence or concordance of evidence) refers to the principle that evidence from independent, unrelated sources can "converge" to strong conclusions. That is, when multiple sources of evidence are in agreement, the conclusion can be very strong even when none of the individual sources of evidence are very strong on their own. Most established scientific knowledge is supported by a convergence of evidence: if not, the evidence is comparatively weak, and there will not likely be a strong scientific consensus.

The principle is based on the unity of knowledge; measuring the same result by several different methods should lead to the same answer. For example, it should not matter whether one measures the distance between the Great Pyramids of Giza by laser rangefinding, by satellite imaging, or with a meter stick - in all three cases, the answer should be approximately the same. For the same reason, different dating methods in geochronology should concur, a result in chemistry should not contradict a result in geology, etc.


Consilience means taking two or more systems that have strong correlations and showing how they all point to the same result, thus consilience is stronger than any single set of evidence or just a correlation between systems in providing evidence of a trend or relationship being correct.

... I see some good points have been made in the peanut gallery, however if I start responding to them here this defeats the objective of a one-on-one discussion, and I only have time for a one-on-one. I am sure RAZD will be bringing some of those points into this discussion which will add spice to this debate.

In a similar vein, my time is limited as well, and you have made a lot of points so far on this thread. Can we take your Message 17 as a summary of your argument to date?

Starting fresh I don't want to respond to the whole post at this point, but if time permits I will answer some of your points. If I get way ahead of you, let me know.

Can you pick what you think is your single best argument in that post, give me a run-down on it and post the evidence that supports it? We can get to the others later.

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : finished link to peanut gallery
added clarity to defs
revised order of post

Edited by RAZD, : add concordance


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 19 by mindspawn, posted 11-16-2013 3:32 AM mindspawn has not yet responded

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 104 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(2)
Message 21 of 119 (711315)
11-17-2013 10:24 AM
Reply to: Message 17 by mindspawn
11-15-2013 2:42 AM


Some annual rainfall weather information for your consideration
I thought I would deal with one of the more egregious claims you have made, just to get it out of the way first:

Its not a variety of reasons, 4 of those locations are precipitation sensitive. ...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ni/print.html

quote:
The seasonal variation of rainfall in Northern Ireland is less marked in the drier southern and eastern areas than in the wetter areas, but in all areas the wettest months are between October and January. This is partly a reflection of the high frequency of winter Atlantic depressions and the relatively low frequency of summer thunderstorms in Northern Ireland. For example, at Armagh, thunder occurs on an average of less than 4 days a year, compared with 15 to 20 days at many places in England. Only in a few locations, mainly away from the coast, does the frequency of thunder exceed 5 days a year.

The course of mean monthly rainfall for 1971-2000 for 4 sites is shown below. The pattern of rainfall is similar at each, with the months October to January the wettest and the late spring and early summer months the driest.

Aldergrove RainfallColerain University RainfallCorgary RainfallSpelga Dam Rainfall

Over much of Northern Ireland, the number of days with a rainfall total of 1mm or more ('wet days') tends to follow a pattern similar to the monthly rainfall totals. In the higher parts, over 55 days is the norm in winter (December to February) and over 45 days in summer (June to August). In the driest areas around Lough Neagh and eastwards to Strangford Lough, less than 45 days in winter and about 35 days in summer are typical.

The combination of close proximity to active weather systems arriving from the Atlantic and the extensive areas of upland can lead to notable daily and monthly falls. The highest fall in a day was 158.9mm at Tollymore Forest (County Down) on 31 October 1968. Periods of prolonged rainfall can lead to widespread flooding. For example, autumn 2000 was the wettest for over 100 years with several flooding episodes and included a fall of 167 mm at Silent Valley (County Down) over 48 hours in early November.


Note that we have 4 places in Northern Ireland where the rainfall occurs with a similar but slightly different total rainfall per month in each place.

Thus the rainfall pattern in Ireland alone is not precisely the same in all locations -- a requirement for your claim of consistent rainfall patterns causing rings instead of annual rings.

Note further, that with the amount of rain in these areas the Oak trees would not be water limited in their growth. This alone is sufficient to invalidate your claim that the rings are due to precipitation rather than annual growth rings

Here are precipitation records for four locations in Germany:

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/...te-listings-a-z.html
(note images copied to off-site)

Berlin, GermanyMunich, GermanyPotsdam, GermanySchleswig, Germany

They too are different from each other, and they are different from the Irish records. They also show sufficient rainfall in any one month that the Oak trees would not be water limited in their growth. These records are also sufficient to invalidate your claim that the rings are due to precipitation rather than annual growth rings.

Note that the months of highest rain are in the summer as opposed to Ireland when they were in the winter, and thus the differences between them and the Irish records can be regarded as more than sufficient evidence that this argument is dead.

When we look at the ecology of the White Mountains -- where the Bristlecone Pine dendrochronology is found, we have

http://www.sonic.net/bristlecone/WhiteMts.html

quote:
Located in east central California just north of Death Valley, and on the western edge of the Great Basin, the White Mountains rise to a respectable altitude of 14,246 feet (4342m). Yet they remain in a rain shadow map of the Sierra Nevada located a few miles west across the deep Owens Valley. As Pacific storms move eastward, the Sierra simply takes the majority of moisture, leaving the White Mountains with strong dry winds. Annual precipitation is less than 12 inches (30cm), most of which arrives as snow in winter. On a summer's day the amount of precipital moisture in the air is about half a millimeter, the lowest ever recorded anywhere on earth. ...

Thus it may be valid to claim that growth of the Bristlecone Pine is water limited, however it should be noted that most of the 12" of rain arrives as snow, and thus this water is not available for tree growth until it melts in the spring. As an evergreen (unlike the Oaks which are deciduous) these trees would tend to grow year-round, with the larger cell size growth in the spring, thus making annual rings that are easily discernable.

In all three chronologies the year without a summer was correctly identified as occurring in 1816, a precise and accurate assessment.

In addition, the three dendrochronologies agree with over 99.5% precision for over 8,000 years of record (see Age Correlations thread for details).

Conclusion

The Irish and German Oak dendrochronologies are not based on rainfall patterns as claimed, but on annual growth patterns.

The Bristlecone Pine dendrochronology is based on annual precipitation from snow melting in the spring.

In addition, the two Oak dendrochronologies and the Bristle-cone pine dendrochronology agree within 99.5% for over 8,000 years of record, and this consilience shows we can have a very high degree of confidence that we are dealing with annual rings, rather than precipitation rings, and that they are both accurate and precise.

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : ...

Edited by RAZD, : added

Edited by RAZD, : <> not ]

Edited by RAZD, : used table for graphics to consolidate post


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 17 by mindspawn, posted 11-15-2013 2:42 AM mindspawn has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 27 by mindspawn, posted 11-19-2013 5:58 AM RAZD has responded

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 104 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(1)
Message 22 of 119 (711327)
11-17-2013 2:00 PM
Reply to: Message 17 by mindspawn
11-15-2013 2:42 AM


Ignorance and Misunderstanding - Uranium and Thorium
... The half-life of Uranium-Thorium is not independently established in a laboratory, but measured against existing dating methods and so is bound to evolutionary assumptions and this explains the consilience in the other 3 locations. Uranium-Thorium dating even calibrates against radiocarbon dating and so these dates become meaningless as independent verifiction of radiocarbon dates.

As noted by Percy in Message 50 of the Peanut Gallery for Great debate: radiocarbon dating, Mindspawn and Coyote thread there are several misconceptions here:

quote:
mindspawn writes:

The half-life of Uranium-Thorium is not independently established in a laboratory...

... Creationists have a way of cramming huge amounts of misinformation into a small number of words, and the above 13 words are no exception.

  1. "Uranium-Thorium" is a dating method, not an element with a half life.

  2. Uranium is one element, Thorium is another.

  3. Both Uranium and Thorium have a number of isotopes. Isotopes are a family of types of the same element with the same number of protons in the nucleus but different numbers of neutrons. Each isotope will have a different half-life, except for stable isotopes which do not decay and therefore do not have a half-life.

  4. The Uranium referred to is 234U with a half-life of 245,000 years.

  5. The Thorium referred to is 230Th with a half life of 75,000 years.

  6. The half-lives of both 234U and 230Th have been measured in the laboratory.

Fortunately, ignorance and scientific illiteracy are curable by learning -- Uranium decays into Thorium, so this is basically a parent-daughter dating system, albeit complicated by Thorium decay, and information on this is easily found:

wiki - Uranium-Thorium

quote:
Uranium-thorium dating, also called thorium-230 dating, uranium-series disequilibrium dating or uranium-series dating, is a radiometric dating technique commonly used to determine the age of calcium carbonate materials such as speleothem or coral.[1] Unlike other commonly used radiometric dating techniques such as rubidium-strontium or uranium-lead dating, the uranium-thorium technique does not measure accumulation of a stable end-member decay product. Instead, the uranium-thorium technique calculates an age from the degree to which secular equilibrium has been restored between the radioactive isotope thorium-230 and its radioactive parent uranium-234 within a sample.

The age is calculated by a purely mathematical formula where the variables are:

  1. the half-life of uranium-234,
  2. the half-life of thorium 230
  3. the amount of uranium-234 in the sample and
  4. the amount of thorium-230 in the sample

The formula will always return exactly the same age for the same inputs, and thus the accuracy and precision of the dated relies on the accuracy and precision of the measurements.

Radiocarbon calibration curve spanning 0 to 50,000 years BP based on paired 230Th/ 234U/ 238U and 14C dates on pristine corals

quote:
The direct determination of 230Th, 234U, and 238U abundances by Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry (TIMS) opened a wide range of dating applications that were previously out of reach of the classical alpha-counting technique (Chen et al., 1986; Edwards et al., 1987a, b; Edwards, 1988; Bard et al., 1990; Gallup et al., 2002). The typical 2s precision of a mass spectrometry 230 Th/ 234U/ 238U date is better than 1% of the age (Chen et al., 1986; Edwards et al., 1987a, b; Mortlock et al., 2004). ...

... We have adopted the new half-life estimates for 230Th and 234U reported by Cheng et al. (2000) and report all data using these new values. ...

... The Δ 14C calculations are made based on the more recent 14C half-life of 5730 +/- 40 years (Godwin, 1962). ...


Thus we have highly precise and accurate measurements of the amount of uranium-234 and thorium-230 with the new technology, and we have updated, laboratory developed half-lives for both element\isotopes.

This means that the Uranium-Thorium age determination should be precise and accurate to within 99% of actual age.

The only variable left in the coral data is the conversion of ocean reservoir levels of 14C to atmospheric levels of 14C:

quote:
The radiocarbon content of tropical surface water is depleted in 14C compared to the atmosphere due to incomplete isotopic equilibration and mixing with subsurface waters of older ages. This 14C offset between surface water and atmosphere is known as the ‘‘reservoir age’’ and in recent times ranges between 300 and 500 years in the western tropical and subtropical regions between 40N and 40S (Craig, 1957; Stuiver and Polach, 1977; Bard 1988). Fairbanks (1989) used a reservoir age of 400 years for Barbados radiocarbon ages based on an average of data for the western tropical Atlantic summarized in Bard (1988). ... There is an advantage to computing an average reservoir age from data spread over the Holocene, rather than from only a few measurements of preindustrial ages. ... More importantly, the uncertainty in the reservoir age in samples older than the Holocene becomes less significant as the analytical age uncertainties in radiocarbon and 230Th/ 234U/ 238U ages increase with time. The computed reservoir ages are remarkably similar: Barbados = 365 +/- 60 years (n = 21); Kiritimati = 350 +/- 55 years (n = 4); and Araki = 365 +/- 140 years (n = 9). ...

If ignored then the reported ages would be older, as the 14C/12C ratio is less in the ocean. Because the 14C comes from the atmosphere the variation in levels is less in the ocean than in the atmosphere, so using average values is justified.

The same issues of accurate determination of 14C and its half-life would of course hold for carbon-14 age determinations as well. From Age Correlations and An Old Earth, Version 2 No 1, Message 5

quote:
... The age calculation is based on the exponential decay curve for a radioactive element with a half-life of 5730 years:

http://science.howstuffworks.com/carbon-14.htm/printable (2)

t = {ln (Nf/No)/ln (1/2)} x t1/2

where t is the "C-14 age", ln is the natural logarithm, Nf/No is the percent of carbon-14 in the sample compared to the amount in living tissue, and t1/2 is the half-life of carbon-14.
t = {ln (Nf/No)/-0.69315} x 5730 = -8267 x ln (Nf/No)

Where No is the original level of the C-14 isotope in the sample (when it was alive and growing and absorbing atmospheric C-14), and Nf is the amount remaining. The value for No today is ~0.00000000010% of total organic carbon and Nf is smaller depending on how much time has passed.

Exponential curves look like this:


For raw carbon-14 ages No is taken to be the 1950 level of the 14C/12C ratio, the half-life used is 5730 years,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon-14

quote:
There are three naturally occurring isotopes of carbon on Earth: 99% of the carbon is carbon-12, 1% is carbon-13, and carbon-14 occurs in trace amounts, i.e., making up about 1 part per trillion (0.0000000001%) of the carbon in the atmosphere. The half-life of carbon-14 is 5,730±40 years.[3]

3^ Godwin, H (1962). "Half-life of radiocarbon". Nature 195 (4845): 984. Bibcode:1962Natur.195..984G. doi:10.1038/195984a0.


so the only variable left that goes into the raw carbon-14 dates is the amount of 14C/12C in the sample.

Radiocarbon calibration curve spanning 0 to 50,000 years BP based on paired 230Th/ 234U/ 238U and 14C dates on pristine corals

quote:
... new higher precision 14C analyses measured at the Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL) Center for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (CAMS) and Leibniz-Labor for Radiometric Dating and Isotope Research at Christian-Albrechts University Kiel. ...

Radiocarbon measurements are made with a relative precision better than or equal to +0.4% (one sigma) for samples less than 30,000 years old ...


Again, a highly precise and accurate determination of the 14C content in the sample, rendered into a raw age datum by an exact mathematical formula, resulting in a highly precise raw age.

We see in Message 21 that the three dendrochronologies are precise and accurate to within 99.5% of actual age, and thus we should see consilience between these two systems if we are indeed measuring true age by these systems, and we do:

quote:


This has the raw 14C age on the "y" axis, as determined from precise and accurate measurements of the 14C content in the samples and an exact mathematical formula, and calendar age on the "x" axis, as determined by precise and accurate counting of tree rings and precise and accurate determination by the Uranium-Thorium method.

The minor variation between these two methods would likely be reduced by further refinement of the reservoir effect over time. This becomes less of an effect with greater age due to the nature of the calculations.

The dendrochronology age to 14C age correlation is shown by the green line, the Uranium-Thorium age to 14C age correlation is shown by the red dots. The dendrochronology data extends to over 12,400 years of uninterrupted, continuous growth.

Conclusion

The consilience of these two completely independent systems provides very high confidence in these results -- all the data is provided with over 99% precision and accuracy.

The earth must be at least 12,400 years old according to this data, ... and highly likely to be considerably older than that, as the Uranium-Thorium data extends to over 50,000 years, and there are a lot more age measurement systems with this level of consilience.

Enjoy.

Edited by RAZD, : mid v msg


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 17 by mindspawn, posted 11-15-2013 2:42 AM mindspawn has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 29 by mindspawn, posted 11-19-2013 3:35 PM RAZD has responded

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 104 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(5)
Message 23 of 119 (711344)
11-17-2013 5:30 PM
Reply to: Message 17 by mindspawn
11-15-2013 2:42 AM


Of Diatoms and Clay and Lake Suigetsu varves
2) Lake Suigetsu is fed by a river in a small catchment area. I challenge you to explain to me how layers of sediment wash into a lake in seasonal patterns without a high degree of sensitivity to each significant rainfall

Easy.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/279/5354/1187 (3)

quote:
A 75-m long continuous core (Lab code, SG) and four short piston cores were taken from the center of the lake in 1991 and 1993. The sediments are laminated in nearly the entire core sections and are dominated by darkcolored clay with white layers resulting from spring-season diatom growth. The seasonal changes in the depositions are preserved in the clay as thin laminations or varves. The sedimentation or annual varve thickness is relatively uniform, typically 1.2 mm/year during the Holocene and 0.61 mm/year during the Glacial. The bottom age of the SG core is estimated to be older than 100,000 years, close to the beginning of the last interglacial period.

There are five different core sections taken in different sections of the lake. The effect of rapid deposition of sediment would be different in the different locations, as the rapid deposition would occur close to the inlet and taper off with distance. Most of the material so deposited would be sand and other materials with fast settlement rates.

http://water.me.vccs.edu/concepts/velocitysusp.htm

quote:
Every material has its own suspension and settling velocity. The suspension velocity is the speed of water above which the water will pick up the material and hold it in suspension. The settling velocity is the speed below which the material will be dropped out of suspension and will settle out of the water.

The relative sizes of gravel, sand, silt, and clay particles are shown below:

Sand and gravel are both large and dense. In addition, they have a small surface area per unit volume since they are roughly spherical. So these types of particles have a high suspension velocity.


http://wps.prenhall.com/...objects/3312/3391718/blb1306.html

quote:
When finely divided clay particles are dispersed throughout water, they do not remain suspended but eventually settle out of the water because of the gravitational pull. The dispersed clay particles are much larger than molecules and consist of many thousands or even millions of atoms.

http://www.d.umn.edu/~pfarrell/lab_8.htm

quote:
The connection between particle size and settling rate is expressed by Stoke's Law. This relationship shows that small particles, those exposing high specific surface area (m2 g-1), produce more resistance to settling through the surrounding solution than large particles and, hence, settle at slower velocities

Stoke's Law :

V = (D^2g(d1-d2)/(18n)

The formula shows that the settling velocity, V, is directly proportional to the square of the particle's effective diameter, D; the acceleration of gravity, g; and the difference between the density of the particle, d1, and density of the liquid, d2; but inversely proportional to the viscosity (resistance to flow) of the liquid, n. The density of water and its viscosity both change in a manner so that particles settle faster with increased temperature. Hence, it may be necessary to apply temperature correction factors as explained with the procedure.

Stoke's Law can be condensed to V=kD^2 by assuming constant values for all components except the effective diameter of soil particles. Then, for conditions at 30 degrees C, k=11241. For particles size values in centimeters, the formula yields settling velocity, V, in centimeters per second. Because soil particles do not meet the requirements of being smooth spheres, exact conformance to Stoke's Law is not realized.


http://www.agriinfo.in/default.aspx?page=topic&superid=4&...

quote:
The colloidal state refers to a two-phase system in which one material in a very finely divided state is dispersed through second phase.

The examples are:

Solid in liquid - Clay in water (dispersion of clay in water)
Liquid in gas -Fog or clouds in atmosphere

The clay fraction of the soil contains particles less than 0.002 mm in size. Particles less than 0.001 mm size possess colloidal properties and are known as soil colloids.


If we use 0.002 mm (0.0002 cm) for clay in the above formula we get

V = 11241(0.0002)^2 = 0.00044964 cm/s
= 1.62 cm/hr = 38.8 cm/day
= 15.3 in/day.

As you can see the theoretical settling velocity of clay according to Stoke's Law would be very, very slowly. Actual times are longer due to the interaction of charged clay particles with water, and because the clay particles are not spherical, but it would take days if not weeks or months for new clay from rainstorms to settle to the bottom. This is especially true in the center of the lake as the new inflow must take time to mix with the lake water and get dispersed sufficiently to reach the center area. This means that the lake acts as a buffer to average out all the clay sediment being introduced to the lake by the inflow: even large variations in inflow will have little effect on the amount of clay settling to the bottom at the center of the lake.

We see from above that the annual deposition of clay is 1.2 mm/year during the Holocene and 0.61 mm/year before that. You can see this on the following graph:

A 40,000-YEAR VARVE CHRONOLOGY FROM LAKE SUIGETSU, JAPAN: EXTENSION OF THE 14C CALIBRATION CURVE

quote:

This again confirms that the clay deposition is very very slow, taking months to accumulate.

This means that the clay layers do not have " ... high degree of sensitivity to each significant rainfall ... " but rather that variations in the inflow have a completely negligable effect on the clay layer formation.

Message 51) Lake Suigetsu is so low lying and so near the coast that very high tides could cause mass Diatom die-offs creating diatom layers that are more frequent than annual. This is not fairytale what-ifs but a highly probable scenario given the lake's proximity to the sea. Diatoms form layers on the surface of the lake, as the salt water table rises this would kill off the lower freshwater diatoms. Someone speculated that the salt water would not rise high enough to kill off the lowest diatoms however this was mere speculation. No figures were actually presented (depth of lake/depth of diatom layer/depth of saltwater).

Actually there are ~25 spring tides per year ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_phase

quote:
... The time between two full moons (a Lunar month) is about 29.53 days[1] (29 days, 12 hours, 44 minutes) on average ...

That's 2x365.24/29.53 = 24.74 per year ...

... and the calibration curve (see below) would be nearly vertical because the horizontal axis would be compressed while the mathematical calculation of age from the 14C/12C ratios in the samples would be unaffected.

Curiously, it does not matter how many diatom mass deaths occur in a year or how much the river flow changes, as this does not affect the layer formation. There could be 50 mass deaths in one summer and there would be one diatom layer for the year. There could be 50 storms and it wouldn't affect the winter layer formed by clay sediment.

This is because the diatoms settle fast -- within a day of death -- while the clay settles slowly taking months to form a layer. and only when there are no further diatom deaths. Only the winter months provide the time necessary to form a clay layer.

This also means that the 14C pattern matching to the dendrochronologies would not be possible.

However, we have independent corroboration for Lake Suigetsu in two forms:

(1) the age of volcanic layers and

(2) the consilience with coral data

http://hitohaku.jp/research_collections/e2007pdf/p29-50.pdf

quote:
Estimation of eruptive ages of the late Pleistocene tephra layers derived from Daisen and Sambe Volcanoes based on AMS -14C dating of the moor sediments at Ohnuma Moor in the Chugoku Mountains, Western Japan

The Ohnuma Moor in the eastern part of the Chugoku Mountains, western Japan, is located about 80 km west of Daisen Volcano and more than 100 km west of Sambe Volcano. The moor has thick sediments more than 63 m that are composed of peat and organic clay and clay above about 17 m in depth, and of coarser silt, sand and gravels below. The finer part contains four tephra layers of Kikai-Akahoya Volcanic Ash Beds (K-Ah), Daisen-Misen Pumice Beds (MsP), Daisen Shitano-hoki Volcanic Ash Beds (Sh), and Aira-Tanzawa Volcanic Ash Beds (AT) in descending stratigraphic order. ...

... The eruptive age of SUk is thus estimated to be from 16,700 to 16,770 y BP (median: 16,740 y BP). We conclude that the eruptive age of SUk (= Sakate) is 16,740 160 y BP (19,966 305 cal. BP) from the effect of the sub-sampling error of 110 to 120 years. This estimated age is also concordant with the AMS-14C date measured in the OB-4 core.

The eruptive age of Sh are calculated to be 24,330 to 24,420 y BP (median: 24,370 y BP) by the same procedure as used for the estimation of an eruptive age of AT. It is estimated to be 24,370 120 y BP (29,320 412 cal. BP) considering the sub-sampling error of 70 to 80 years.


These ages are concordant with the age in Lake Suigetsu cores for both Sakate and Daisen-hoki in the graph above. Note that volcanic deposits are identified by signature elements, and are not the same from different volcanoes.

Now on to consilience with the coral data:

Radiocarbon calibration curve spanning 0 to 50,000 years BP based on paired 230Th/ 234U/ 238U and 14C dates on pristine corals

quote:
... These new results are presented and discussed in this paper (Fig. 3). ...

The offset between radiocarbon years and calendar years increases from the present to approximately 38,500 calendar years BP reaching more than 6000 years difference. From 38,500 calendar years BP to 50,000 calendar years BP the trend reverses and radio-carbon ages grow slightly closer to calendar ages (Fig. 3). By 50,000 calendar years BP, the corresponding radiocarbon age is younger by approximately 3700 years. The departure of the calibration curve from the one to one line (D 14C) contains fundamental information on solar output (Damon et al., 1978; Stuiver and Quay, 1980), the carbon cycle (Edwards et al., 1993; Hughen et al., 1998; Hughen et al., 2000), and the Earth’s geomagnetic field (Bard et al., 1990; Beck et al.,2001).


The data from Lake Suigetsu shows

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/279/5354/1187 (3)

quote:

Fig. 1. (A) Radiocarbon calibration up to 45,000 yr B.P. reconstructed from annually laminated sediments of Lake Suigetsu, Japan. The small circles with 1s error represent the 14C ages against varve ages. For the oldest eight points (>38,000 years, filled circles), we assumed a constant sedimentation during the Glacial period. The green symbols correspond to the tree-ring calibration (2, 15), and the large red symbols represent calibration by combined 14C and U-Th dating of corals from Papua New Guinea (squares) (8), Mururoa (circles), and Barbados (triangles) (7). The line indicates that radiocarbon age equals calibrated age.


This graph shows the previous dendrochronology calibration curve (green), the Lake Suigetsu data (blue) and data from marine corals (red) from Papua New Guinea (squares), Mururoa (circles), and Barbados (triangles).

On this graph we have the Carbon-14 levels (represented as "Radiocarbon Age") shown for multiple cores from 8830 to ~20,000 years on the horizontal time scale, and data (I count ~50 samples) from ~20,000 to 37,930 years from one core correlated with counted varve layers, and then eight more organic samples where the horizontal age datum is assumed from sediment thickness (and which are not included in discussion here). This means that most of the 250 samples occurred in the area of most reliability - where there were multiple cores.

We can discard the data after 37,930 years as being less reliable, depending as it does on estimates of layers rather than the actual layer counts used for the period between 8,830 to 37,930 years ago (with the overlap to dendrochronology between 8,830 and 12,405 years ago).

Please note the consilience between the three sets of coral data and the Lake Suigetsu data on this last graph: these coral data points are independent and earlier than the coral study done here. Note that precision in measurements has improved due to new technology being able to make more accurate measurements than was previously available.

From these two different graphs, from two different systems, we see a high degree of agreement - consilience - in the results.

We now have high consilience between three (3) dendrochronologies, four (4) coral chronologies, two (2) volcanic eruption dates, and one (1) lake varve chronology.

Conclusion

The consilience of the Lake Suigetsu data and the Ohnuma Moor data for the volcanic eruption dates shows we can have a high degree of confidence in these dates.

The consilience of Lake Suigetsu data with coral data -- completely independent systems -- provides very high confidence in these results .

The consilience between the coral data and the highly precise and accurate dendrochronology provides very high confidence in these results.

The earth must be at least 37,930 years old according to this data, ... and highly likely to be considerably older than that, as the Uranium-Thorium data extends to over 50,000 years, and there are a lot more age measurement systems with this level of consilience.

Enjoy.

Edited by RAZD, : spling

Edited by RAZD, : added bits

Edited by RAZD, : clrty


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 17 by mindspawn, posted 11-15-2013 2:42 AM mindspawn has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 43 by mindspawn, posted 11-25-2013 5:18 AM RAZD has responded

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 104 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 24 of 119 (711419)
11-18-2013 2:41 PM
Reply to: Message 17 by mindspawn
11-15-2013 2:42 AM


The Tip of the Iceberg
3) Ice cores are precipitation sensitive, each large snowfall/rainfall would by its very nature create a layer, please explain why those layers are annual and not sensitive to each major precipitation during the year.

Again this is fairly simple to do. Let's start with an easy example, from Age Correlations thread, msg 6:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/slides/slideset/index20.htm (3)

quote:
(Slide 1) The Peruvian altiplano is a high plateau ranging in altitude from 3500 to over 4000 meters above sea level. ... The Quelccaya ice cap rises in the background, 55 km2 of ice that provides important clues on climatic change and variability in the South American tropics. The ice sheet's summit elevation is 5670 m and its maximum summit thickness is 164 m.

(Slide 3) The Quelccaya cap terminates abruptly and spectacularly in a 55 m ice cliff. The annual accumulation layers clearly visible in the photograph are an average of .75 m thick. While snow can fall during any season on the altiplano, most of it (80-90%) arrives between the months of November and April. The distinct seasonality of precipitation at Quelccaya results in the deposition of the dry season dust bands seen in the ice cliff. These layers are extremely useful to the paleoclimatologist because they allow ice core records to be dated very accurately using visual stratigraphyy, which is simply the visual identification of annual dust layers in ice records (in most ice cores, annual layers become indistinct at depth, forcing paleoclimatologists to rely on less-accurate ice-flow models to establish chronologies; at Quelccaya, on the other hand, annual layers are visible throughout the core).

There would also be pollen and seeds mixed in with the dust, which would only occur during the growing season. The layers are easy to identify because of the dust band.

But that is not all this particular ice formation is useful for:

quote:
(Slide 6) An array of forty-eight solar panels provided enough electricity to recover two ice cores to bedrock, one 154.8 m long covering the last 1350 years, and the other 163.6 m long and 1500 years old.

(Slide 11) Two of the analyses performed on the cores are presented here, accumulation and the oxygen isotope ratio (known as δ18O). Accumulation is a measure of annual layer thickness normalized to account for the compression of ice layers at depth and corrected for ice flow dynamics. The oxygen isotope ratio (a measure of the ratio of heavy oxygen (18O) to light oxygen (16O)) is a proxy measure for paleotemperature, though it also reflects changes in snow surface processes and water-vapor history.

One of the most salient features in the last millennium of climate history is the Little Ice Age, a loosely-defined period of cold temperatures and increased climatic variability that has been documented in many parts of the globe.* As this figure shows, the Little Ice Age is identified in the Quelccaya climate record as a period of 'colder' (more negative) δ18O roughly bracketed between 1550 A.D. and 1900 A.D.


The δ18O) measurement is like the tree-ring band width measurement as an indicator of climate, and thus matching δ18O) levels in different ice cores or other depositions can show consilience in the data or correlate one to the other. In this case it shows climate that is consilient with the archeological record for Peru.

While this series of layers only date back to ~500AD they are important for a couple of reasons: they show visible layers, and they allow calibration of the oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O) as a measure of layers and of climate. These layers also show a period of sever weather that is known from history (the Little Ice Age) and the effects of a volcanic eruption nearby that occurred in 1600 AD. These results can then be applied to other ice cores.

Continuing from the same slide show:

quote:
(Slide 14) The Dunde Ice Cap (pronounced Dun-duh) is extremely remote, perched on the mountain range separating China's highest desert, the Qaidam Basin, from its more famous counterpart, the Gobi. For over 40,000 years, snow has been piling up on this 60 km2 ice cap deep in China's sparsely inhabited interior. A team of paleoclimatologists from the United States and China came here in 1987 to uncover the climatic secrets locked in Dunde's icy depths.

(Slide 17) Since Quelccaya is at the edge of the moist Amazon Basin while Dunde is wedged between two deserts, it is not surprising that accumulation rates are much higher at Quelccaya. Indeed, the annual average accumulation at Quelccaya in meters of water equivalent is 1.15 m compared to just .43 m at Dunde. Like Quelccaya, around 80% of Dunde's precipitation falls during the wet season. The dry season is clearly identified in the core record by the layers of dust from surrounding deserts visible in this ice segment.

Since snow accumulates more slowly at Dunde, ice from its ~140 m cores is significantly older than that from Quelccaya. While Quelccaya provides high-resolution clues to the last 1500 years of climate, Dunde stretches back over 40,000 years, well into the last ice age.


The same kind of alternating layers of dust and snow as at Quelccaya, the same kind of climate information from the oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O), data that matches known climate markers, including the last ice age, data that also showed up in Lake Suigetsu climate information. Research on the Dunde Ice Cores is continuing, including analysis of the dust and pollen as markers not just of climate but of environment.

http://geology.geoscienceworld.org/...tent/abstract/26/2/135 (5)

quote:
High pollen concentrations between 10 000 and 4800 yr B.P. suggest that the summer monsoon probably extended beyond its present limit to reach Dunde and westernmost Tibet in response to orbital forcing. The summer monsoon retreated time-transgressively across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during the middle Holocene. Relatively humid periods occurred at 2700-2200, 1500-800, and 600-80 yr B.P., probably as a result of neoglacial cooling. Prominent pollen changes during the Medieval Warm Period (790-620 yr B.P.) and the Little Ice Age (330-80 yr B.P.) suggest that the vegetation in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region is sensitive to abrupt, century-scale climatic changes, such as those anticipated in scenarios of greenhouse warming.

Again we have dating correlated with climate information.

http://www.springerlink.com/content/wu102k4348572506/ (6)

quote:
The insoluble microparticle concentrations and size distributions and oxygen isotope abundances (δ180) in two 1-meter ice cores from the margin of the Dunde ice cap (38° 06 'N; 96° 24 'E; 5325 masl) drilled in 1986 and three ice cores drilled to bedrock at the summit of the ice cap in 1987 suggest the presence of Wisconsin/Würm Glacial Stage (LWGS) ice in the subtropics.

Additionally, the morphological properties of the particles in the LWGS ice are identical to those of the thick, extensive loess deposits of central china which accumulated during the cold, dry glacial stages of the Pleistocene. When the climatic and environmental records are fully extracted from the three deep cores they will provide a very detailed record of variations in particulates (soluble and insoluble), stable isotopes, net balance, pollen and perhaps atmospheric gases of CO2 and methane through the Holocene into the last glacial in the subtropics on the climatically important Tibetan Plateau.


We see evidence of the end of the last glaciation period in the dust and pollen in the layers of ice from the Dunde Ice Cap in addition to the evidence of the dδsup>18O ratios.

The climate markers are similar to Lake Suigetsu and other data, and this shows a continuous annual record that is precise and accurate due to the difference between dry season dust and wet season snow. Dust could be blown by several storms, but this would stop when the wet season begins and then snow would accumulate from many storms before dust once again covered it the following year.

Minimum age of the earth > 40,000 years based on this data.

And we are not done with ice cores yet.

http://www.asa3.org/aSA/PSCF/2003/PSCF12-03Seely.pdf (6)

quote:
There are a dozen or so important Greenland ice cores, but the latest and greatest are GRIP (Greenland Ice Project) and GISP2 (Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2), which were extracted at the Summit where the ice rarely melts. GRIP was dated by counting back annual layers from the surface to c. 14,500 BP (before the present, dated 1950) using electrical conductivity method (ECM, see below) and the rest of the ice core was dated on the basis of flow modeling and chemical techniques. GISP2 was dated by visually counting annual hoar frost layers back to c. 12,000 BP and from 12,000 to 110,000 BP by visually counting annual dust layers.

Back to 12,000 BP, this counting was validated by a very close agreement of three independent methods of counting the annual layers. From 12,000 BP back to 40,000 BP, the counting was validated by a very close agreement of two independent methods of counting the annual layers, and from 40,000 BP back to 110,000 BP by a close agreement of two independent methods. Also, despite the different methods used for dating GRIP and GISP2, there is "excellent agreement" between them (and with deep sea cores as well); so the cores corroborate each other.

The first way we know the top 12,000 layers are annual is because the snow that falls in the summer in Greenland is affected by the sun (which only shines in the summer) in such a way that its crystals become much more coarsegrained than winter snow.

Another way to distinguish the annual layers is to note the dust concentrations. In the late winter/early spring when the wind is stronger than usual, significantly more dust (insoluble matter of various kinds) is carried in the air -- even from the Southern hemisphere and Asia -- and is deposited in the layers of snow in Greenland.

The third way annual layers can be distinguished is via the electrical conductivity of the layers.16 In the spring and summer when the sun is shining, nitric acid is produced in the stratosphere and enters the snow, but this does not happen in the winter.17 The acid in the spring/summer layer enables an electrical current to easily flow through that layer, but the relative lack of acid in the winter layer allows much less electricity to flow through that layer. So, as two electrodes mechanically run down the ice core the readout (mm by mm) of the resultant flows of electricity shows the successive years as a series of peaks (summer) and valleys (winter).

It is to a large extent the correlation and corroborating testimony of these three main methods of counting the annual layers in the GISP2 core which guarantees the validity of the ice core dating.22 The three methods have excellent correlation with each other down to 2500 m, that is, back to c. 57,000 BP.23 In the upper 2300 m (down to c. 40,000 BP) the correspondence of the three methods has been called "remarkable."24


Note the consilience of the different cores and the different measuring systems.

As you can see the ice cores take us back considerably further in time, while this is still the tip of the iceberg for core age data. Here are only concerned with the consilience of age and climate to the 14C data correlation and calibration.

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : added

Edited by RAZD, : ..


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 17 by mindspawn, posted 11-15-2013 2:42 AM mindspawn has not yet responded

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 104 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(2)
Message 25 of 119 (711431)
11-18-2013 7:14 PM
Reply to: Message 17 by mindspawn
11-15-2013 2:42 AM


Dry Lakes and Rabbit Holes and Rational Conclusions and Cognitive Dissonance
4) Lake Lisan was also in a dry area, please explain why each rainfall in a semi-desert region does not form a layer of sediment. In wet regions sediment flows in rivers and lakes show seasonal patterns, due to saturated water tables allowing continuity of the flow between rainfalls. This seasonal effect is lessened in dry areas which are more sensitive to each and every rainfall.

Message 19

I disagree about the rabbit holes and what-ifs.......

This is one:

Message 7

4) Lake Lisan was in a dry region that is also precipitation sensitive, not necessarily sensitive to entire seasons.
http://www.tau.ac.il/...ublications/Lisan-levels-Machlus.pdf
The low stand of Lake Lisan during most of this period indicates relative dry climatic conditions in the region.

Curiously I read the paper and found absolutely nothing about 14C dating, calibration of 14C, tree ring counting or lake varve counting. The only thing you remark on -- dry climatic conditions -- applies to the dead sea area, an area geologically separate from any of the 14C vs annual layer systems. You have presented zero evidence that it is related to climate in any other location and that it affects 14C dating in any way. That's a Red Herring Logical Fallacy.

quote:
Reconstruction of paleo-shorelines of Lake Lisan, the late Pleistocene precursor of the Dead Sea, is based on sequence stratigraphy of fan-delta and lacustrine deposits that are exposed at the Perazim Valley, southwest of the Dead Sea. The shoreline sediments are physically correlated with lacustrine aragonites, their ages are determined by U-series dating, to establish a lake-level curve for the time interval between 55 and 35 kyr. ...

... A correlation between the Lake Lisan sedimentary record and deep sea and ice core records reveals that during warm (interglacial) episodes in the North Atlantic, the Dead Sea-Jordan region was dry, and the level of Lake Lisan dropped (Stein, 1999; Schramm et al., 2000). ...


The study basically investigates how alluvial fans at river mouths show the lake level history, it is completely irrelevant to 14C dating and to the formation of varves in the center of a lake.

Perhaps you should read Introduction To Geology to better understand how irrelevant this is.

So now I have answered each of the issues you raised in Message 17:

  1. ... 4 of those locations are precipitation sensitive ... Weather occurs in cycles and patterns, eg cold fronts. It logical that there would be approximately the same number of major precipitation events every year, and so the consilience is not unrealistic ... You need a stronger argument than consilience to counter my argument of precipitation sensitivity of those locations, which explains the consilience due to consistent worldwide rainfall patterns. ... see Message 21
  2. ... "half-life of Uranium-Thorium is not independently established in a laboratory," ... see Message 22
  3. ... White Mountain bristlecone pines are precipitation sensitive and the location has very dry soil. I challenge you to explain to me how the wood continues to grow between rainfalls in an area of dry soils ... see Message 21
  4. ... Lake Suigetsu is fed by a river in a small catchment area. I challenge you to explain to me how layers of sediment wash into a lake in seasonal patterns without a high degree of sensitivity to each significant rainfall ... see Message 23
  5. ... Ice cores are precipitation sensitive, each large snowfall/rainfall would by its very nature create a layer, please explain why those layers are annual and not sensitive to each major precipitation during the year ... see Message 24
  6. ... Lake Lisan was also in a dry area, please explain why each rainfall in a semi-desert region does not form a layer of sediment. In wet regions sediment flows in rivers and lakes show seasonal patterns, due to saturated water tables allowing continuity of the flow between rainfalls. This seasonal effect is lessened in dry areas which are more sensitive to each and every rainfall ... see Message 25

I have found these claims to be false (1 to 5) or irrelevant (Lake Lisan), and provided the information and objective empirical data that invalidates (falsifies) your false claims.

Message 3

Thanks for the thread.

My main problem with carbon dating is its calibration against tree ring chronology, which I feel is unreliable due to assumptions about the annual nature of rings. Tree growth is normally relative to moisture, and moisture cycles are not always annual:

I have shown that dendrochronology is both precise and accurate to it's current (data) limit of 12,405 years of age, with 100% accuracy and precision for the "year without a summer" in 1816 (197 years ago) and 99.5% accuracy and precision at over 8,000 years ago.

I have shown that the tree rings are annual formations with high accuracy and precision.

Thus I have answered to your "main problem" and this should be the end of this thread.

Further I have shown that the Lake Suigetsu varves are in fact annual formations and thus their consilience with the tree ring data makes a stronger case for 14C dating.

Further I have shown that the coral study consilience with both the dendrochronologies and Lake Suigetsu makes an even stronger case for 14C dating, if not for radiometric dating as a whole.

I've shown how annual layers of ice are determined ...

... and I get to the point where I have to ask: do you really think that the thousands of scientists who have spent years studying for a PhD and decades of their lives studying these various systems are all such naive and incompetent bufoons that they have never considered the difference between annual and other effects?

Really?

Do you think that hundreds of creationists have also never considered these issues and asked questions (do you have any idea how many creationist PRATTs (Points Refuted a Thousand Times) are already out there)?

Are you familiar with creationists say the funniest things? Seems to me that your precipitation claim fits that category.

... but measured against existing dating methods ...

No, they are correlated with other methods, and the consilience of data (and there is a LOT more) shows that the correlation of 14C to actual age is valid and 99% precise, if mildly inaccurate (~90% accuracy), and that we CAN calibrate 14C to improve the accuracy of results (generally making them younger).

... and so is bound to evolutionary assumptions ...

Which of course is a term based on misinformation, ignorance and denial (see cognitive dissonance below) -- 14C has nothing to do with evolution nor do any of the dating methods discussed. You only confuse yourself by using invalid terms.

Perhaps if you articulate fully what you think these are, you can begin to see that your assumptions are false.

Unfortunately for you those locations definitely favor 11-12 layers a year consistent with precipitation, rather than one layer a year ...

Rather obviously a totally made up number with absolutely no supporting evidence. By the time I finish with layered counting systems for the age of certain features on this earth you will need a much much larger factor to squeeze the natural history of this planet into any kind of YEC model. If you care to continue ...

Curiously I don't expect much from you at this point, but I'll wait with unbated breath for your next installment ... if it comes ...

(1) there isn't any real evidence for a young earth, so all you have is fantasy and delusion, and

(2) cognitive dissonance -- you'll go into ignore mode and run away or try some other lame attempt to save face.

Cognitive dissonance - (Wikipedia, 2010)
Cognitive dissonance is an uncomfortable feeling caused by holding two contradictory ideas simultaneously. The theory of cognitive dissonance proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance by changing their attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors, or by justifying or rationalizing them.[2] It is one of the most influential and extensively studied theories in social psychology.

A powerful cause of dissonance is an idea in conflict with a fundamental element of the self-concept, such as "I am a good person" or "I made the right decision". The anxiety that comes with the possibility of having made a bad decision can lead to rationalization, the tendency to create additional reasons or justifications to support one's choices. A person who just spent too much money on a new car might decide that the new vehicle is much less likely to break down than his or her old car. This belief may or may not be true, but it would reduce dissonance and make the person feel better. Dissonance can also lead to confirmation bias, the denial of disconfirming evidence, and other ego defense mechanisms.

Confirmation Bias, Cognitive Dissonance and idée fixes, are not the tools of an open-mind or an honest skeptic, and continued belief in the face of contradictory evidence is delusion.

The objective empirical evidence shows consistently, consiliently, that the earth is old, very very old ... over 4.5 billion years old, and my advice is ... get used to it.

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : added links

Edited by RAZD, : spling

Edited by RAZD, : 14C not 14D


we are limited in our ability to understand
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... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
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This message is a reply to:
 Message 17 by mindspawn, posted 11-15-2013 2:42 AM mindspawn has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 26 by mindspawn, posted 11-19-2013 3:43 AM RAZD has responded

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 104 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(5)
Message 28 of 119 (711492)
11-19-2013 2:54 PM
Reply to: Message 26 by mindspawn
11-19-2013 3:43 AM


Re: Dry Lakes and Rabbit Holes and Rational Conclusions and Cognitive Dissonance
Don't you think to summarize and conclude you have won the debate is a little early if you take into account I haven't even replied to your posts?

What I said was that this should be the end of this thread because your "main problem with carbon dating" was answered, and thus it is a fair assesment. That you don't accept an answer does not mean that it has not been provided.

You may not have realized, but most of my discussion has revolved around the seven points of consilience in Coyote's graph in Message 4:

Your original claim in Message 3 was "its calibration against tree ring chronology..." and so you are now moving the goal posts to other correlations while blissfully ignoring the consilience of all the different methods, hand waving them away with some fantasy about precipitation sensitivity.

There are three (3) distinct dendrochronologies, Irish Oak, German Oak and Pine, and Bristlecone Pine from the White Mountains in Nevada. Your "main problem with carbon dating" has been answered by showing that tree ring calculation is 100% accurate and precise for 1816 the "year without a summer" and slightly over 99.5% accurate and precise for a bit over 8,000 years of record; by showing that the oak dendrochronologies are not water limited as you claimed, and that the major source of water for the Bristlecone Pine comes from snow-melt in the spring, thus causing annual rings in all three very consilient records. Between the three dendrochronologies the greatest difference is between the Bristlecone Pine and the two (2) oak dendrochronologies, where the pine chronology is 37 years younger than the oak chronologies at the 8,000 year mark. This indicates that the pine chronology is more likely to be missing some annual rings than to have rainfall rings.

I can go into this in greater detail if you still have trouble accepting this.

You may not have realized, but most of my discussion has revolved around the seven points of consilience in Coyote's graph in Message 4:

Coyote showed you the graph so that you could see the consilience of data and your answer was to question each item and make up a fantasy about precipitation sensitivity. That is chasing rabbit holes.

Tree Ring
Lake Suigetsu
Bahamas
Speleothem
Carioca Basin
PS2644
Lake Lisan
Papua New Guinea

Lake Lisan is clearly listed as one of the points of consilience related to radiocarbon dating, and this is why I brought up Lake Lisan to look into how those layers were formed. ...

And yet the study you referenced had absolutely nothing to do with the 14C study -- that is what makes it a red herring.

Curiously scientific papers list the references used in the paper so that other people can check the information from those references.

Here is that graph again:

This is the reference list(*) from the paper with that graph:

quote:
References

  1. Andersen, K.K., Azuma, N., Barnola, J.-M., et al., 2004. High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period. Nature 431 (7005), 147–151.
  2. Arnold, J.R., Libby, W.F., 1949. Age determinations by radiocarbon content: Checks with samples with known age. Science 110, 678–680.
  3. Bard, E., 1988. Correction of accelerator mass spectrometry 14C ages measured in planktonic foraminfera: paleoceanographic implications. Paleoceanography 3 (6), 635–645.
  4. Bard, E., 1998. Geochemical and geophysical implications of the radiocarbon calibration. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 62 (12), 2025–2038.
  5. Bard, E., Hamelin, B., Fairbanks, R.G., Zindler, A., 1990. Calibration of the 14C timescale over the past 30,000 years using mass spectrometric U-Th ages from Barbados corals. Nature 345, 405–410.
  6. Bard, E., Arnold, M., Fairbanks, R.G., Hamelin, B., 1993. 230Th/234U and 14C ages obtained by mass spectrometry on corals. Radiocarbon 35 (1), 191–199.
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(*) note that I have added numbers to this list for quicker reference in this debate.

The papers in question for the graph are:

  1. (Reimer et al., 2004) = 87. Reimer, P.J., Baillie, M.G.L., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Beck, J.W., Bertrand, C.J.H., Blackwell, P.G., Buck, C.E., Burr, G.S., Cutler, K.B., Damon, P.E., Edwards, R.L., Fairbanks, R.G., Friedrich, M., Guilderson, T.P., Hogg, A.G., Hughen, K.A., Kromer, B., McCormac, G., Manning, S., Ramsey, C.B., Reimer, R.W., Remmele, S., Southon, J.R., Stuiver, M., Talamo, S., Taylor, F.W., van der Plicht, J., Weyhenmeyer, C.E., 2004. IntCal04 Terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration, 0–26 ka BP. Radiocarbon 46, 1029–1058.
  2. (Kitagawa and van der Plicht, 2000) = 66. Kitagawa, H., van der Plicht, J., 2000. Atmospheric radiocarbon calibration beyond 11,900 cal B.P. from Lake Suigetsu laminated sediments. Radiocarbon 42, 369–380.
  3. (Beck et al., 2001) = 8. Beck, J.W., Richards, D.A., Edwards, R.L., Silverman, B.W., Smart, P.L., Donahue, D.J., Herrera-Osterheld, S., Burr, G.S., Calsoyas, L., Jull, A.J.T., Biddulph, D., 2001. Extremely large variations of atmospheric 14C concentration during the last glacial period. Science 292, 2453–2458.
  4. (Hughen et al., 2004) = 61. Hughen, K.A., Baillie, M.G.L., Bard, E., Beck, J.W., Bertand, C.J.H., Blackwell, P.G., Buck, C.E., Burr, G.S., Cutler, K.B., Damon, P.E., Edwards, R.L., Fairbanks, R.G., Friedrich, M., Guilderson, T.P., Kromer, B., McCormac, G., Manning, S., Ramsey, C.B., Reimer, P.J., Reimer, R.W., Remmele, S., Southon, J.R., Stuiver, M., Talamo, S., Taylor, F.W., van der Plicht, J., Weyhenmeyer, C.E., 2004b. Marine04 Marine radiocarbon age calibration, 0–26 ka BP. Radiocarbon 46, 1059–1086.
  5. (Voelker et al., 2000) = 111. Voelker, A.H.L., Grootes, P.M., Nadeau, M.-J., Sarntheim, M., 2000. Radiocarbon levels in the Iceland Sea from 25–53 kyr and their link to the earth’s magnetic field intensity. Radiocarbon 42, 437–452.
  6. (Schramm et al., 2000) = 90. Schramm, A., Stein, M., Goldstein, S.L., 2000. Calibration of the 14C time scale to 440 ka by 234U–230Th dating of Lake Lisan sediments (last glacial Dead Sea). Earth and Planetary Science Letters 175, 27–40.
  7. (Yokoyama et al., 2000) = Yokoyama, Y., Esat, T.M., Lambeck, K., Fifield, L.K., 2000. Last ice age millennial scale climate changes recorded in Huon Peninsula corals. Radiocarbon 42 (3), 383–401.

So those are the seven papers you should read, quote from and criticize in relation to the curve above.

As a start.

But I also expect that if you were truly interested in this subject that you would read every paper in the reference list -- that is what a scientific critic would do, rather than someone who is ignorant of 99% of this work throwing shit at the wall to see if it sticks.

Notice that if you keep challenging the new information presented that you now have 116 peer reviewed papers to challenge with some uneducated fantasy mechanism that makes all these scientists such naive, blundering and incompetent bufoons that they have never considered the accuracy of their study in any way.

Don't you think to summarize and conclude you have won the debate is a little early if you take into account I haven't even replied to your posts?

Also to post a picture of a plummeting plane is a little premature in my eyes.

So challenge the dendrochronologies with some modicum of understanding of the work that has gone into them, not with uneducated fantasy.

You can start with these papers:

  1. Reimer, P.J., Baillie, M. G. L., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Beck, J. W., Bertrand, C. J. H., Blackwell, P. G., Buck, C. E., Burr, G. S., Cutler, K. B., Paul E Damon, P. E., Edwards, R. L., Fairbanks, R. G., Friedrich, M., Guilderson, T. P., Hogg, A. G., Hughen, K. A., Kromer, B., McCormac, G., Manning, S., Ramsey, C. B., Reimer, R. W., Remmele, S., Southon, J. R., Stuiver, M., Talamo, S., Taylor, F. W., van der Plicht, J., Weyhenmeyer, C. E., 2004, INTCAL04 Terrestrial Radiocarbon Age Calibration, 0-26 CAL KYR BP. Radiocarbon 46, No 3, pages 1029-1058(30).

  2. Friedrich, M., Remmele, S., Kromer, B., Hofmann, J., Spurk, M., Kaiser, K.F., Orcel, C., Kuppers, M., 2004. The 12,460-year Hohenheim oak and pine tree-ring chronology from central Europe—a unique annual record for radiocarbon calibration and paleoenvironment reconstructions. Radiocarbon 46, No 3, pages 1111–1122.

Articles in Radiocarbon can be found here:
https://journals.uair.arizona.edu/index.php/radiocarbon/
(opens with latest issue articles - go to sidebar to navigate the archive by issue)
Issue 46 No 3 index is at https://journals.uair.arizona.edu/.../issue/view/210/showToc

The abstract for the first paper (INTCAL04 Terrestrial Radiocarbon Age Calibration, 0-26 CAL KYR BP) is here with the Full PDF Download Here

quote:
The relation between North American and European wood has been studied using bristlecone pine (BCP) and European oak (German oak and Irish oak), respectively. Discrepancies have become evident over the years, in particular when the German oak was corrected by a dendro-shift of 41 yr towards older ages (Kromer et al. 1996). Attempts were made to resolve the discrepancies by remeasuring BCP samples, measured earlier in Tucson (Linick et al. 1986). The University of Arizona Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research provided dendrochronologically-dated bristlecone pine samples to Heidelberg (wood from around 4700 and 7600 cal BP), Groningen (around 7500 cal BP), Pretoria (around 4900 cal BP), and Seattle (around 7600 cal BP). The replicate measurements have a mean offset of 37 ± 6 14C yr (n = 21) from the Tucson measurements. Applying this shift to the Tucson data results in a close fit to the wiggles of the German oak, which would not occur if there were an error in the dendrochronology of either series. Because of this offset, the IntCal working group has decided not to include the BCP record in IntCal04.

Note that the 37 year difference over ~8,000 years of chronology was considered too large for this calibration. This is an error of less than 0.5%, with the Bristlecone Pine chronology younger than the oak chronology.

The abstract for the second paper (The 12,460-year Hohenheim oak and pine tree-ring chronology from Central Europe; a unique annual record for radiocarbon calibration and paleoenvironment reconstructions) is here with the Full PDF Download Here

quote:
... This new PPC has been linked dendrochronologically to the absolute Holocene oak chronology, extending the absolute, tree-ring-based time scale back to 12,410 BP (10,461 BC). The Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition is observed in the ring-widths of our pines (Friedrich et al. 1999) at 11,590 BP (9641 BC); thus, the absolute tree-ring chronology now covers 820 yr of the Younger Dryas and the entire Holocene. The full range is 12,460 yr (10,461 BC–AD 2000).

Don't forget to check the references as well ...

Also to assume my link on Lake Nisan was irrelevant is one point, but to post about a Red Herring Logical Fallacy is going a little far considering you were wrong about the irrelevance.

Except that I wasn't wrong about the irrelevance -- your paper had nothing to do with 14C data and correlations with actual age. An honest debater would use the appropriate paper, not one picked seemingly at random.

This discussion is in its infancy, please do not mistake my busy lifestyle and slow replies for avoidance. I am looking forward to your open mind during the rest of our discussion, hoping you will have a mature approach to the rest of the discussion.

No, your participation is in its infancy. Both coyote and I have years of involvement with it. My participation spans over 8 years on this forum since I began the first Age Correlations thread, now in its fourth version with over 1236 posts ... with no evidence that the ages given are false.

You provide me with objective empirical evidence rather than fantasy wishful hokum and you will see how open-minded I am. Try to snow me with BS and fantasy and you will find my skepticism of your argument difficult to beat.

And if you want a mature discussion then you can stop insulting the thousands of scientist who put their life work into this field by presenting childish complaints and wishful fantasies that a little research on your part would show you their fallacy.

I repeat: do you really think that all all these scientists (see reference list for a sampling) are such naive, blundering and incompetent bufoons that they have never considered the difference between annual and other effects?

Further, if you want to have a mature discussion then you will provide objective empirical evidence to support your position and explain not just why any single system is wrong but why they are all wrong in the same manner, even when they depend on totally different mechanisms.

Enjoy.


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 26 by mindspawn, posted 11-19-2013 3:43 AM mindspawn has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 30 by mindspawn, posted 11-19-2013 3:49 PM RAZD has responded

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 104 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(2)
Message 31 of 119 (711508)
11-19-2013 5:10 PM
Reply to: Message 27 by mindspawn
11-19-2013 5:58 AM


Re: Some annual rainfall weather information for your consideration
When I said four of those locations are precipitation sensitive I was not referring to Ireland or Germany. I was referring to Lake Lisan, White Mountains of California, Lake Suigetsu and Cariaco Basin.

Yet you failed to specify that in your post.

Curiously, the fact remains that the Irish Oak and the German Oak and Pine chronologies are not in precipitation sensitive environments, they are indeed annual rings, and they agree with the Bristlecone Pine chronology for over 8,000 years with 99.5% agreement.

This alone demonstrates that the Bristlecone Pine IS an annual ring chronology.

It also should come as no surprise to you that the thousands of dendrochronologist are actually able to discern the difference between rainfall patterns and annual patterns in the formation of rings.

In addition, I have shown that Suigetsu Lake varves are not sensitive to rainfall\runoff patterns in message 23: Of Diatoms and Clay and Lake Suigetsu varves, but are annual layers.

I agree that the whole world does not have exactly the same rainfall patterns, but this wasn't the actual requirement of my claim. Maybe you missed the essence of my claim, possibly I am at fault through not communicating clearly. Due to weather having patterns from major weather phenomenon like cold fronts, cyclones etc, there is a regular cyclical nature to weather in most locations. Various locations on earth can have an annual weather pattern of approximately 10-12 major wet spells interspersed with dry spells and minor wet spells.

Now take another step back, because even major weather events are not the same. Cut the BS and present data of these 11 to 12 major patterns: I'm sure that meteorologists will be mighty interested in this made up factoid.

The fact that this is BS is more than adequately demonstrated by the differences between Ireland, Germany and the White Mountain peaks, as noted Some annual rainfall weather information for your consideration.

Your quote simply supports my position. The soils are so dry, that its impossible for the trees to grow during the dry spell. Every rain spell therefore shows as a ring, because the growing stops between the rain spells. Yes the spring melt would cause a ring, but these trees are also temperature sensitive, and so rainfalls during the warmer months would also cause small rings. Between the spring melt and summer rainfalls the tree cannot grow, as the soil completely dries out. The summer rainfalls are most suitable for growth (warmth and water) and so rings would form then.

Only if you ignore the actual data, the actual ecological information, and the high degree of replication of age with the other two dendrochronologies and the fact that the "year with no summer" was properly dated to 1816. Your opinion on whether they can grow on just snow-melt is irrelevant without actual evidence. Sadly the actual evidence is otherwise.

http://www.sonic.net/bristlecone/dendro.html

quote:
Simply put, dendrochronology is the dating of past events (climatic changes) through study of tree ring growth. Botanists, foresters and archaeologists began using this technique during the early part of the 20th century. Discovered by A.E. Douglass from the University of Arizona, who noted that the wide rings of certain species of trees were produced during wet years and, inversely, narrow rings during dry seasons.

Each year a tree adds a layer of wood to its trunk and branches thus creating the annual rings we see when viewing a cross section. New wood grows from the cambium layer between the old wood and the bark. In the spring, when moisture is plentiful, the tree devotes its energy to producing new growth cells. These first new cells are large, but as the summer progresses their size decreases until, in the fall, growth stops and cells die, with no new growth appearing until the next spring. The contrast between these smaller old cells and next year's larger new cells is enough to establish a ring, thus making counting possible.

Lets say the sample was taken from a standing 4,000 year-old (but long dead) bristlecone. Its outer growth rings were compared with the inner rings of a living tree. If a pattern of individual ring widths in the two samples prove to be identical at some point, we can carry dating further into the past. With this method of matching overlapping patterns found in different wood samples, bristlecone chronologies have been established almost 9,000 years into the past.

A number of tree samples must be examined and cross dated from any given site to avoid the possibility of all the collected data showing a missing or extra ring. Further checking is done until no inconsistency appears. Often several sample cores are taken from each tree examined. These must be compared not only with samples from other trees at the same location but also with those at other sites in the region. Additionally, the average of all data provides the best estimate of climate averages. A large portion of the effects of non-climatic factors that occur in the various site data is minimized by this averaging scheme.


White Mountains:
https://weatherspark.com/.../Bishop-California-United-States
https://weatherspark.com/...h-Lakes-California-United-States

These are both to the wet side of the mountains, they are at significantly lower elevations, and in the area where the mountain range strips the air of moisture. This is NOT the weather where the trees are growing.

Let me repeat, so you can read it again:

http://www.sonic.net/bristlecone/WhiteMts.html

quote:
Located in east central California just north of Death Valley, and on the western edge of the Great Basin, the White Mountains rise to a respectable altitude of 14,246 feet (4342m). Yet they remain in a rain shadow map of the Sierra Nevada located a few miles west across the deep Owens Valley. As Pacific storms move eastward, the Sierra simply takes the majority of moisture, leaving the White Mountains with strong dry winds. Annual precipitation is less than 12 inches (30cm), most of which arrives as snow in winter. On a summer's day the amount of precipital moisture in the air is about half a millimeter, the lowest ever recorded anywhere on earth.

Anything not on the peak of the mountains where the trees are will have different climate, and the trees come from several different locations in the mountains

quote:
Weather here is cold and dry. The average max.-min. temperatures range from about 70°F (21°C) to 37°F (3°C) at the base, and from 36°F (2°C) to -26° (-32°C) in the alpine zone. ... Winds blowing along the crest can blow most of the snow from some areas, leaving little for trees like the bristlecone at the treeline - 11,200' (3414m). ... The soil quality is poor, and at its poorest in the alpine zone. This factor combined with a short growing season, results in sparse and delicate flora. ... Because these soil types inhibit the growth of other plants, they provide a competition-free arena for the slow-growing bristlecone pines.

Note temperatures, short growing season and slow growing -- there is no warm summer rain, there are no growth spurts, and there certainly are not 11 to 12 major storms a year.

" ... Annual precipitation is less than 12 inches (30cm), most of which arrives as snow in winter. ... "

If we take 60% (low) of the 12" as snow that is 7.2" of water available from spring snow melt.

The other 40% divided by your mysterious 11 to 12 event scenario is 4.8/12 or 0.4" of rain per event and this is totally insufficient to provide robust growth spurt anywhere near the 7.2" (or more) from snow melting. In addition the growing season is so short that your 11 to 12 storms would be occurring in rapid sequence, with no opportunity for the cells to die off sufficiently to form the winter band of the growth ring.

These trees have adapted to this extreme environment, with a short growing season and a slow spurt of growth each year from snow melt.

They are annual rings, and denial of this documented fact is delusion.

Monthly rainfall charts are irrelevant to this discussion as they do not reveal significant dry and wet spells, we need daily rainfall charts for that.

Dry spells of less than a month duration are technically not dry spells but ordinary weather. All that is needed is that the water replenish the water-table where the trees grow. In the case of the Irish and German dendrochronologies this is not an issue due to the amount of normal rainfall.

Once again we see that these two dendrochronologies refute your argument: they are annual rings and they agree with the Bristlecone Pine chronology with 99.5% accuracy.

To create chronologies further back than living trees (dated to 4800 bp) you need dead trees that have remained in good condition for thousands of years. How did these dead trees survive without rotting for so long?

Because they are in environments that preserve them.

http://www.ashtarcommandcrew.net/...topics/the-ancient-trees

quote:
... Prometheus was a living member of a population of bristlecone pine trees growing near the tree line on the lateral moraine of a former glacier on Wheeler Peak, in Great Basin National Park, eastern Nevada. Wheeler Peak is the highest mountain in the Snake Range, and the highest mountain entirely within the state of Nevada. The bristlecone pine population on this mountain is divided into at least two distinct sub-populations, ...

Methuselah -is a Great Basin Bristlecone Pine (Pinus longaeva) tree growing high in the White Mountains of Inyo County in eastern California. Its measured age of 4,842 years makes it the world's oldest known living tree. ... The picture is not an actual picture of Methuselah, but it likely looks very similar.

Among the White Mountain specimens, the oldest trees are found on north-facing slopes, with an average of 2,000 years, as compared to the 1,000 year average on the southern slopes. The climate and the durability of their wood can preserve them long after death, with dead trees as old as 7,000 years persisting next to live ones.


So you have dead trees still standing older than any of the living trees. The environment also preserves fallen trees.

The oaks are often found in marshes and peat bogs where the acidic water preserves them.

Note that the record for oldest living tree is now 5063 years old this year.

http://www.rmtrr.org/oldlist.htm

quote:
A new record holder was recently recognized, a Pinus longaeva growing in the White Mountains of eastern California. The date on this tree was reported to me by Tom Harlan. The tree was cored by Edmund Schulman in the late 1950s but he never had a chance to date it before he died. Tom worked up the core only recently, and knows which tree it is. The tree is still alive, and the age given below, 5062, is the tree's age as of the growing season of 2012.

The more time passes the more evidence there is of old growth and an older earth.

Please present your evidence for this comment in all 3 chronologies. I'm especially interested in your proof of this in specifically those most ancient of living bristlecone pines in the arid white mountain area. Many bristlecone pines are found in warmer wetter areas, of course these would show annual rings, but this would not prove your point about the more ancient bristlecone pines.

But they can (and are) by being included in the cross-dating check.

I wont be referring to entire whole threads for your evidence, if you wish to make a point kindly post your point in this thread, or give me a link to an exact post in another thread regarding this 8000 year agreement.

You will find that I have provided links to the particular post on that thread for the relevant data. I have also presented that data on this thread. That you refuse to look at the information is not my problem.

Up to this point I haven't discussed the Irish and German Oak chronologies. Neither of these are in dry regions therefore I agree with you about annual rings currently. However I believe these regions were in dryer environments in the past.

The Holocene had dry patches which would have affected tree growth rings by a large factor (the number of annual wet/dry spells per year). This would be reflected in much smaller rings during dry periods.
http://www.clim-past.net/8/1751/2012/cp-8-1751-2012.pdf

Curiously I gave you this reference in Message 28:

Friedrich, M., Remmele, S., Kromer, B., Hofmann, J., Spurk, M., Kaiser, K.F., Orcel, C., Kuppers, M., 2004. The 12,460-year Hohenheim oak and pine tree-ring chronology from central Europe—a unique annual record for radiocarbon calibration and paleoenvironment reconstructions. Radiocarbon 46, No 3, pages 1111–1122.

Note that they identify the Holocene climate from the tree ring data:

quote:
... This new PPC has been linked dendrochronologically to the absolute Holocene oak chronology, extending the absolute, tree-ring-based time scale back to 12,410 BP (10,461 BC). The Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition is observed in the ring-widths of our pines (Friedrich et al. 1999) at 11,590 BP (9641 BC); thus, the absolute tree-ring chronology now covers 820 yr of the Younger Dryas and the entire Holocene. The full range is 12,460 yr (10,461 BC–AD 2000).

The correlations and consilience of data are still not explained in your fantasy argument.

Enjoy.


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 27 by mindspawn, posted 11-19-2013 5:58 AM mindspawn has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 36 by mindspawn, posted 11-20-2013 5:45 AM RAZD has responded

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 104 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(2)
Message 32 of 119 (711510)
11-19-2013 5:31 PM
Reply to: Message 30 by mindspawn
11-19-2013 3:49 PM


Re: Dry Lakes and Rabbit Holes and Rational Conclusions and Cognitive Dissonance
I'm ignoring your whole post. Its too long and immature for good discussion. ...

Oh boo hoo.

If you want to use this excuse to avoid looking at reality, I can understand that. This is what Cognitive Dissonance predicts.

You come here and arrogantly and ignorantly insult the intelligence, education, learning and dedication of thousands of scientists with an argument based on fantasy, wishful thinking and belief, and you expect me to treat you like some special savant ... when it is BS -- I've shown it to be BS.

If you want a mature discussion then you (a) need to read all my posts and (b) answer them with evidence supported arguments, not BS.

... If you would like to re-post your most relevant points, you are welcome. I am making precise points, and if you are able to answer the actual points I make in a more succint manner I would appreciate the exchange.

No you are not making "precise points" you are grabbing at straws. Precise points are supported by objective empirical evidence.

But okay ...

quote:
Message 28:

Don't you think to summarize and conclude you have won the debate is a little early if you take into account I haven't even replied to your posts?

What I said was that this should be the end of this thread because your "main problem with carbon dating" was answered, and thus it is a fair assesment. That you don't accept an answer does not mean that it has not been provided.

You may not have realized, but most of my discussion has revolved around the seven points of consilience in Coyote's graph in Message 4:

Your original claim in Message 3 was "its calibration against tree ring chronology..." and so you are now moving the goal posts to other correlations while blissfully ignoring the consilience of all the different methods, hand waving them away with some fantasy about precipitation sensitivity.

There are three (3) distinct dendrochronologies, Irish Oak, German Oak and Pine, and Bristlecone Pine from the White Mountains in Nevada. Your "main problem with carbon dating" has been answered by showing that tree ring calculation is 100% accurate and precise for 1816 the "year without a summer" and slightly over 99.5% accurate and precise for a bit over 8,000 years of record; by showing that the oak dendrochronologies are not water limited as you claimed, and that the major source of water for the Bristlecone Pine comes from snow-melt in the spring, thus causing annual rings in all three very consilient records. Between the three dendrochronologies the greatest difference is between the Bristlecone Pine and the two (2) oak dendrochronologies, where the pine chronology is 37 years younger than the oak chronologies at the 8,000 year mark. This indicates that the pine chronology is more likely to be missing some annual rings than to have rainfall rings.

I can go into this in greater detail if you still have trouble accepting this.

You may not have realized, but most of my discussion has revolved around the seven points of consilience in Coyote's graph in Message 4:

Coyote showed you the graph so that you could see the consilience of data and your answer was to question each item and make up a fantasy about precipitation sensitivity. That is chasing rabbit holes.

Tree Ring
Lake Suigetsu
Bahamas
Speleothem
Carioca Basin
PS2644
Lake Lisan
Papua New Guinea

Lake Lisan is clearly listed as one of the points of consilience related to radiocarbon dating, and this is why I brought up Lake Lisan to look into how those layers were formed. ...

And yet the study you referenced had absolutely nothing to do with the 14C study -- that is what makes it a red herring.

Curiously scientific papers list the references used in the paper so that other people can check the information from those references.

Here is that graph again:

This is the reference list(*) from the paper with that graph:

quote:
References

  1. Andersen, K.K., Azuma, N., Barnola, J.-M., et al., 2004. High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period. Nature 431 (7005), 147–151.
  2. Arnold, J.R., Libby, W.F., 1949. Age determinations by radiocarbon content: Checks with samples with known age. Science 110, 678–680.
  3. Bard, E., 1988. Correction of accelerator mass spectrometry 14C ages measured in planktonic foraminfera: paleoceanographic implications. Paleoceanography 3 (6), 635–645.
  4. Bard, E., 1998. Geochemical and geophysical implications of the radiocarbon calibration. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 62 (12), 2025–2038.
  5. Bard, E., Hamelin, B., Fairbanks, R.G., Zindler, A., 1990. Calibration of the 14C timescale over the past 30,000 years using mass spectrometric U-Th ages from Barbados corals. Nature 345, 405–410.
  6. Bard, E., Arnold, M., Fairbanks, R.G., Hamelin, B., 1993. 230Th/234U and 14C ages obtained by mass spectrometry on corals. Radiocarbon 35 (1), 191–199.
  7. Bard, E., Arnold, M., Hamelin, B., Tisnerat-Laborde, N., Cabioch, G., 1998. Radiocarbon calibration by means of mass spectrometric 230Th/ 234U and 14C ages of corals: an updated database including samples from Barbados, Mururoa and Tahiti. Radiocarbon 40, 1085–1092.
  8. Beck, J.W., Richards, D.A., Edwards, R.L., Silverman, B.W., Smart, P.L., Donahue, D.J., Herrera-Osterheld, S., Burr, G.S., Calsoyas, L., Jull, A.J.T., Biddulph, D., 2001. Extremely large variations of atmospheric 14C concentration during the last glacial period. Science 292, 2453–2458.
  9. Beer, J., Siegenthaler, U., Bonani, G., Finkel, R.C., Oeschger, H., Suter, M., Wolfli, W., 1988. Information on past solar activity and geomagnetism from 10Be in the C amp Century ice core. Nature 331, 675–679.
  10. Bevington, P.R., Robinson, D.K., 1992. Data reduction and error analysis for the physical sciecnes 2nd edition. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA 328p.
  11. Bronk Ramsey, C., 2001. Development of the radiocarbon calibration program. Radiocarbon 43, 355–363.
  12. Brown, T.A., Southon, J.R., 1997. Corrections for contamination background in AMS 14C measurements. Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research B 123, 208–213.
  13. Buck, C.E., Blackwell, P.G., 2004. Formal statistical models for estimating radiocarbon calibration curves. Radiocarbon 46, 1093–1102.
  14. Buck, C.E., Cavanagh, W.G., Litton, C.D., 1996. Bayesian Approach to Interpreting Archaelogical Data. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, New York, Brisbane, Toronto, Tokyo, Singapore 382p.
  15. Burr, G.S., Beck, J.W., Taylor, F.W., Recy, J., Edwards, R.L., Cabioch, G., Correge, T., Donahue, D.J., O’Malley, J.M., 1998. A high-resolution radiocarbon calibration between 11,700 and 12,400 calendar years BP derived from 230Th ages of corals from Espiritu Santo Island, Vanuatu. Radiocarbon 40, 1093–1105.
  16. Chen, J.H., Edwards, R.L., Wasserburg, G.J., 1986. 238U, 234U, and 230Th in seawater. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 80, 241–251.
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(*) note that I have added numbers to this list for quicker reference in this debate.

The papers in question for the graph are:

  1. (Reimer et al., 2004) = 87. Reimer, P.J., Baillie, M.G.L., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Beck, J.W., Bertrand, C.J.H., Blackwell, P.G., Buck, C.E., Burr, G.S., Cutler, K.B., Damon, P.E., Edwards, R.L., Fairbanks, R.G., Friedrich, M., Guilderson, T.P., Hogg, A.G., Hughen, K.A., Kromer, B., McCormac, G., Manning, S., Ramsey, C.B., Reimer, R.W., Remmele, S., Southon, J.R., Stuiver, M., Talamo, S., Taylor, F.W., van der Plicht, J., Weyhenmeyer, C.E., 2004. IntCal04 Terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration, 0–26 ka BP. Radiocarbon 46, 1029–1058.
  2. (Kitagawa and van der Plicht, 2000) = 66. Kitagawa, H., van der Plicht, J., 2000. Atmospheric radiocarbon calibration beyond 11,900 cal B.P. from Lake Suigetsu laminated sediments. Radiocarbon 42, 369–380.
  3. (Beck et al., 2001) = 8. Beck, J.W., Richards, D.A., Edwards, R.L., Silverman, B.W., Smart, P.L., Donahue, D.J., Herrera-Osterheld, S., Burr, G.S., Calsoyas, L., Jull, A.J.T., Biddulph, D., 2001. Extremely large variations of atmospheric 14C concentration during the last glacial period. Science 292, 2453–2458.
  4. (Hughen et al., 2004) = 61. Hughen, K.A., Baillie, M.G.L., Bard, E., Beck, J.W., Bertand, C.J.H., Blackwell, P.G., Buck, C.E., Burr, G.S., Cutler, K.B., Damon, P.E., Edwards, R.L., Fairbanks, R.G., Friedrich, M., Guilderson, T.P., Kromer, B., McCormac, G., Manning, S., Ramsey, C.B., Reimer, P.J., Reimer, R.W., Remmele, S., Southon, J.R., Stuiver, M., Talamo, S., Taylor, F.W., van der Plicht, J., Weyhenmeyer, C.E., 2004b. Marine04 Marine radiocarbon age calibration, 0–26 ka BP. Radiocarbon 46, 1059–1086.
  5. (Voelker et al., 2000) = 111. Voelker, A.H.L., Grootes, P.M., Nadeau, M.-J., Sarntheim, M., 2000. Radiocarbon levels in the Iceland Sea from 25–53 kyr and their link to the earth’s magnetic field intensity. Radiocarbon 42, 437–452.
  6. (Schramm et al., 2000) = 90. Schramm, A., Stein, M., Goldstein, S.L., 2000. Calibration of the 14C time scale to 440 ka by 234U–230Th dating of Lake Lisan sediments (last glacial Dead Sea). Earth and Planetary Science Letters 175, 27–40.
  7. (Yokoyama et al., 2000) = Yokoyama, Y., Esat, T.M., Lambeck, K., Fifield, L.K., 2000. Last ice age millennial scale climate changes recorded in Huon Peninsula corals. Radiocarbon 42 (3), 383–401.

So those are the seven papers you should read, quote from and criticize in relation to the curve above.

As a start.

But I also expect that if you were truly interested in this subject that you would read every paper in the reference list -- that is what a scientific critic would do, rather than someone who is ignorant of 99% of this work throwing shit at the wall to see if it sticks.

Notice that if you keep challenging the new information presented that you now have 116 peer reviewed papers to challenge with some uneducated fantasy mechanism that makes all these scientists such naive, blundering and incompetent bufoons that they have never considered the accuracy of their study in any way.

Don't you think to summarize and conclude you have won the debate is a little early if you take into account I haven't even replied to your posts?

Also to post a picture of a plummeting plane is a little premature in my eyes.

So challenge the dendrochronologies with some modicum of understanding of the work that has gone into them, not with uneducated fantasy.

You can start with these papers:

  1. Reimer, P.J., Baillie, M. G. L., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Beck, J. W., Bertrand, C. J. H., Blackwell, P. G., Buck, C. E., Burr, G. S., Cutler, K. B., Paul E Damon, P. E., Edwards, R. L., Fairbanks, R. G., Friedrich, M., Guilderson, T. P., Hogg, A. G., Hughen, K. A., Kromer, B., McCormac, G., Manning, S., Ramsey, C. B., Reimer, R. W., Remmele, S., Southon, J. R., Stuiver, M., Talamo, S., Taylor, F. W., van der Plicht, J., Weyhenmeyer, C. E., 2004, INTCAL04 Terrestrial Radiocarbon Age Calibration, 0-26 CAL KYR BP. Radiocarbon 46, No 3, pages 1029-1058(30).

  2. Friedrich, M., Remmele, S., Kromer, B., Hofmann, J., Spurk, M., Kaiser, K.F., Orcel, C., Kuppers, M., 2004. The 12,460-year Hohenheim oak and pine tree-ring chronology from central Europe—a unique annual record for radiocarbon calibration and paleoenvironment reconstructions. Radiocarbon 46, No 3, pages 1111–1122.

Articles in Radiocarbon can be found here:
https://journals.uair.arizona.edu/index.php/radiocarbon/
(opens with latest issue articles - go to sidebar to navigate the archive by issue)
Issue 46 No 3 index is at https://journals.uair.arizona.edu/.../issue/view/210/showToc

The abstract for the first paper (INTCAL04 Terrestrial Radiocarbon Age Calibration, 0-26 CAL KYR BP) is here with the Full PDF Download Here

quote:
The relation between North American and European wood has been studied using bristlecone pine (BCP) and European oak (German oak and Irish oak), respectively. Discrepancies have become evident over the years, in particular when the German oak was corrected by a dendro-shift of 41 yr towards older ages (Kromer et al. 1996). Attempts were made to resolve the discrepancies by remeasuring BCP samples, measured earlier in Tucson (Linick et al. 1986). The University of Arizona Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research provided dendrochronologically-dated bristlecone pine samples to Heidelberg (wood from around 4700 and 7600 cal BP), Groningen (around 7500 cal BP), Pretoria (around 4900 cal BP), and Seattle (around 7600 cal BP). The replicate measurements have a mean offset of 37 ± 6 14C yr (n = 21) from the Tucson measurements. Applying this shift to the Tucson data results in a close fit to the wiggles of the German oak, which would not occur if there were an error in the dendrochronology of either series. Because of this offset, the IntCal working group has decided not to include the BCP record in IntCal04.

Note that the 37 year difference over ~8,000 years of chronology was considered too large for this calibration. This is an error of less than 0.5%, with the Bristlecone Pine chronology younger than the oak chronology.

The abstract for the second paper (The 12,460-year Hohenheim oak and pine tree-ring chronology from Central Europe; a unique annual record for radiocarbon calibration and paleoenvironment reconstructions) is here with the Full PDF Download Here

quote:
... This new PPC has been linked dendrochronologically to the absolute Holocene oak chronology, extending the absolute, tree-ring-based time scale back to 12,410 BP (10,461 BC). The Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition is observed in the ring-widths of our pines (Friedrich et al. 1999) at 11,590 BP (9641 BC); thus, the absolute tree-ring chronology now covers 820 yr of the Younger Dryas and the entire Holocene. The full range is 12,460 yr (10,461 BC–AD 2000).

Don't forget to check the references as well ...

Also to assume my link on Lake Nisan was irrelevant is one point, but to post about a Red Herring Logical Fallacy is going a little far considering you were wrong about the irrelevance.

Except that I wasn't wrong about the irrelevance -- your paper had nothing to do with 14C data and correlations with actual age. An honest debater would use the appropriate paper, not one picked seemingly at random.

This discussion is in its infancy, please do not mistake my busy lifestyle and slow replies for avoidance. I am looking forward to your open mind during the rest of our discussion, hoping you will have a mature approach to the rest of the discussion.

No, your participation is in its infancy. Both coyote and I have years of involvement with it. My participation spans over 8 years on this forum since I began the first Age Correlations thread, now in its fourth version with over 1236 posts ... with no evidence that the ages given are false.

You provide me with objective empirical evidence rather than fantasy wishful hokum and you will see how open-minded I am. Try to snow me with BS and fantasy and you will find my skepticism of your argument difficult to beat.

And if you want a mature discussion then you can stop insulting the thousands of scientist who put their life work into this field by presenting childish complaints and wishful fantasies that a little research on your part would show you their fallacy.

I repeat: do you really think that all all these scientists (see reference list for a sampling) are such naive, blundering and incompetent bufoons that they have never considered the difference between annual and other effects?

Further, if you want to have a mature discussion then you will provide objective empirical evidence to support your position and explain not just why any single system is wrong but why they are all wrong in the same manner, even when they depend on totally different mechanisms.

Enjoy.


Better?

If you want to discuss scientific studies you need to be prepared to do the reading.

Curiously I don't think any of that post is immature at all, especially given the nature of your arguments, I think it is accurate and to the point.

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : added


we are limited in our ability to understand
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This message is a reply to:
 Message 30 by mindspawn, posted 11-19-2013 3:49 PM mindspawn has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 35 by mindspawn, posted 11-20-2013 2:27 AM RAZD has responded

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 104 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 33 of 119 (711511)
11-19-2013 6:02 PM
Reply to: Message 29 by mindspawn
11-19-2013 3:35 PM


Re: Ignorance and Misunderstanding - Uranium and Thorium
All this is true, I should have worded my point more carefully. There are various ways to establish the half-lives of isotopes, possibly the most accurate would be to test the ratio of parent/daughter of the same sample, in a mass spectrometer over a precise time period (eg 10 years). Another method would be to use instruments to test the number of decay events, and to establish a rate of decay from that. However in actually determining the half lives of thorium and uranium the following link gives no hint that either method was used.

I have yet to see any proof that Ur-Th decay rates were established independently of calibration with other dating methods. If they were calibrated against other dating methods then this in itself explains the consilience and makes your conclusion irrelevant.

This information is in the paper. All you need to do is read it and follow the references and then read those. That is what a scientific critic would do. I quoted it before.

quote:
... We have adopted the new half-life estimates for 230Th and 234U reported by Cheng et al. (2000) and report all data using these new values.

Here is the reference, again (it is no 17 in Message 28):

Cheng, H., Edwards, R.L., Hoff, J., Gallup, C.D., Richards, D.A., Asmerom, Y., 2000. The half-lives of uranium-234 and thorium-230. Chemical Geology 169, 17–33.

http://www.researchgate.net/...f_uranium-234_and_thorium-230
Full PDF Download

quote:
Abstract
We have re-determined the 234U and 230Th half-lives to be 245,250 +/- 490 years (2σ ) and 75,690 +/- 230 years (2σ ), respectively. Using high precision thermal ionization mass spectrometric (TIMS) methods, we measured 234U/238U and 230Th/238U atomic ratios in 4 different materials that were likely to have behaved as closed systems for 10^6 years or more: zircons with concordant 238U–206Pb, 235U–207Pb, and 232Th–208Pb ages, Iceland Spar, Table Mountain Latite, and aliquots of a solution of Harwell uraninite (HU-1). We calibrated the TIMS multipliers using U-500, U and Th gravimetric standards, and U double spike. Consistent 234U/238U values for all measured materials and consistent 230Th/238U values for all materials with the exception of our HU-1 solution support the secular equilibrium status. The new half-lives agree within error with previously determined values; however, errors in our values are generally smaller than those in the earlier determinations. Our 234U half-life is about 3‰ higher than that commonly used in 230Th dating laboratories and our 230Th half-life is about 4‰ higher. 230Th ages calculated with the new half-lives are generally older than those calculated with the previously used half-lives. The difference in age, though, is small throughout the 230Th age range because our revised 234U and 230Th half-lives are offset from earlier values in the same sense (both to higher values). In the case of dating materials older than 350 ka in laboratories that rely solely on gravimetric standardization procedures, use of our decay constants and their associated errors will considerably reduce the errors in age arising from uncertainty in the decay constants. (c) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Measured in the lab.

Note that the new half-lives agree within the margin of error with previously determined values and that the margins of error are reduced in the new determinations. The 234U half-life is about 3‰ longer than previous values and the 230Th half-life is about 4‰ longer, so they confirm previous lab measurements with a difference of only 0.3% (older) for 234U and 0.4% (older) for 230Th (the ‰ symbol is parts per thousand).

The accuracy is 99.8% for 234U and 99.7% for 230Th.

... However in actually determining the half lives of thorium and uranium the following link gives no hint that either method was used. Instead the actual ratios of parent/daughter and their subsequent half-lies were determined using samples of rocks dated using other methods.
http://radiocarbon.ldeo.columbia.edu/...5Fairbanks+table.pdf
"we measured 234U/238U and 230TH/238U atomic ratios in 4 different materials that were likely to have behaved as closed systems for 10`6 years."

Unless you can show me otherwise it appears the most accurate calibration of uranium/thorium dating is calibrated using uranium-uranium dated samples (234U/238U). Ratios were determined in a laboratory using mass spectrometry, but actual decay events were not measured in a laboratory. This could open up a can of worms because you now have to prove the accuracy of radiometric dating to verify your carbon dates.

This is you not reading the article and following the references -- and then jumping to conclusions. You are confusing correlation with calibration.

They measured the age of the coral by uranium/thorium dating AND by uranium-uranium to show that they got the same results, thus giving a highly consilient accurate and precise calendar age calculation for the coral samples.

Again, this is independent information that is then compared to the 14C data from the same core sample to show the correlation between them:

This precise correlation with highly accurate data allows calibration of the 14C dates to increase the accuracy of those dates.

The earth is old, very very old: get used to it.

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : added links

Edited by RAZD, : link

Edited by RAZD, : abstract symbol corrections

Edited by RAZD, : added links


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 29 by mindspawn, posted 11-19-2013 3:35 PM mindspawn has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 34 by mindspawn, posted 11-20-2013 1:43 AM RAZD has responded

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 104 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 37 of 119 (711552)
11-20-2013 9:25 AM
Reply to: Message 34 by mindspawn
11-20-2013 1:43 AM


Re: Ignorance and Misunderstanding - Uranium and Thorium
Your "read the article and all the references" approach does not cut it. It reminds me of your comment about cognitive dissonance and having an open mind. With all those references at your disposal I am hoping that you are able to find the part that supports your position that the half-lives used in Th-Ur dating are independently established.

The measurements were made in the lab, and you have references available to check that the information presented in the article were proper and accurate representations of the science.

I am not your research assistant: if YOU want to find something out YOU look for it.

So far you have provided ZERO evidence in this debate and just keep posting drivel. Your conjecture about mysterious significant storms is not just totally unfounded but totally invalidated by objective empirical evidence, and you want to nit-pick decay constant determinations ...

Yes they did use the mass spectrometer in the lab, but that was used to determine the relative ratios of variously dated samples. How the samples were dated is a separate question, and the article seems to indicate the samples were dated using Uranium-Uranium dating, which already have "accepted" half -lives. It appears we have an absolute stalemate here until you present further evidence for your position. We will have to agree to disagree on how the latest half-lives of 230Th and 234U were established.

Again, that's just you not reading the article for information, but to see if you can nit-pick it and see if there is a sentence or two that you can misinterpret.

quote:
The 230Th method is based on the decay of 238U through two short lived intermediate daughter isotopes to 234U and the decay of 234U to 230Th. The 230Th age equation (Bateman, 1910; Broecker, 1963) includes terms for the decay constants (or half-lives) of all three nuclides. Therefore, accurate and precise values for the half-lives are essential for accurate and precise age determination. Renne et al. (1998) have recently summarized the issue of the accuracy of half-life determinations and implications for the accuracy of different types of radiometric ages. Of the three pertinent nuclides used in 230Th dating, the fractional error in the half-life of 238U, 4.4683 +/- 0.0048 = 10^9 years (2σ, Jaffey et al., 1971), is the smallest. For the remainder of the text, all quoted errors will be at the 2σ level of uncertainty. For the half-life of 234U, De Bievre et al. (1971) determined a value of 244,600 +/- 730 years and Lounsbury and Durham (1971) determined a value of 244,400 +/- 1200 years. Because these values are almost identical, a commonly used value in geochronology is the mean of the two: 244,500 years. However, Holden (1989) has reviewed all 234U half-life work and gave a weighted average half-life of 245,500 +/- 1000 years using revised data including data from De Bievre et al. (1971) and Lounsbury and Durham (1971). This value differs by 4‰ from the commonly used value. The fractional error in the value for the 230Th half-life is the largest of the three; the most recent and most precise value is 75,381 +/- 590 years (Meadows et al., 1980). The uncertainties in the half-lives affect the accuracy of 230Th ages, particularly for samples older than about 350 ka, in cases where standardization is based solely on gravimetric standards. Thus, by reducing errors in the half-life values we can improve the accuracy of 230Th ages.

You will note that each of these half-lives are reported from labs independent of the other half-lives. You are free to read those references rather than take my word for it ... but it is your job to do so if you question their results.

quote:
If a system remains closed to chemical exchange for an interval of time long compared to the half-lives of the intermediate daughters in the 238U decay series, it reaches a state of secular equilibrium (Bateman, 1910). In this state, the activities of all of the nuclides in the decay series are equal: 238U(λ238) = 234U(λ234)= 230Th(λ230), or λ234 = λ238/(234U/238U) and λ230 = V238/(230Th/238U). The λ’s are decay constants, the chemical symbols refer to numbers of atoms of the indicated nuclide and the subscripts indicate the mass number of the nuclides. As the value of λ238 is well-known, one can determine λ230 and λ234 by measuring 234U/238U and 230Th/238U in secular equilibrium materials.

The value of λ238 is well known (see above for reference to its derivation), the quantities of 238U, 234U and 230Th are measured by highly accurate and precise (TIMS) methods and the calculation of λ234 and λ230 are simple math.

quote:
With thermal ionization mass spectrometric (TIMS) techniques, one can measure 234U/238U and 230Th/238U with better precision (Edwards et al., 1987) than the errors for the current values for λ230 and λ234. Thus, in principle the values for the half-lives of 230Th and 234U can be refined by simply measuring 234U/238U and 230Th/238U in secular equilibrium materials.

In other words this is a different approach to measuring λ230 and λ234 from the previous lab determinations (again, see above for references for their derivation), and it operates as an independent check on those half-life determinations.

The precision and accuracy depend on:

  • the precision and accuracy of λ238
  • the precision and accuracy of measuring 238U quantity in the sample
  • the precision and accuracy of measuring 234U quantity in the sample
  • the precision and accuracy of measuring 230Th quantity in the sample

quote:
Using this approach, Ludwig et al. (1992) report a value for the 234U decay constant that is similar to the Holden (1989) value.

ie this has already been done for 234U and the result agrees with the previous value (and again you can see above for references).

Not surprisingly the new values agree with the old lab determined values within the margin of error: the results are refinements of previous determinations rather than significantly different.

quote:
From a practical standpoint, the main impact of this work relates to the dating of materials older than 350 ka in laboratories that rely solely on gravimetric standardization procedures. In this case, use of our decay constants and their associated errors will reduce errors in age due to errors in decay constants considerably. For any laboratories with systematic errors similar to ours, use of our decay constant values will reduce age error due to decay constant error to insignificant levels.

The margin of error for dating material under 50 ka (50,000 years) is negligible (the length of time under consideration in the coral study).

Message 29: There are various ways to establish the half-lives of isotopes, possibly the most accurate would be to test the ratio of parent/daughter of the same sample, in a mass spectrometer over a precise time period (eg 10 years). Another method would be to use instruments to test the number of decay events, and to establish a rate of decay from that.

It seems that they did even better than that.

quote:
... Each sample was run until at least 4 million 234U ions had been counted (+/- 1‰ (2σ ) counting statistics). ...

Enjoy


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 34 by mindspawn, posted 11-20-2013 1:43 AM mindspawn has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 44 by mindspawn, posted 11-25-2013 6:38 AM RAZD has responded

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 104 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(3)
Message 38 of 119 (711571)
11-20-2013 1:06 PM
Reply to: Message 35 by mindspawn
11-20-2013 2:27 AM


Re: Dry Lakes and Rabbit Holes and Rational Conclusions and Cognitive Dissonance
Are you saying that anyone who disagrees with well-established theories is in your eyes arrogant. Their views are BS? ...

No, just views based on made up conjectures that are contradicted by objective empirical evidence ... such as your mysterious precipitation claim.

... If this was true then science would never progress. To challenge the establishment and keep re-testing theories is part of what strengthens a theory and should be welcomed by the scientific community. ...

It is ... when done scientifically and based on objective empirical evidence. We just covered an example of that with the uranium thorium dating study that refined the decay values.

... Maybe we would reach understanding through discussion if both parties can present their evidence in an unemotional scientific manner. ...

Any time you want to start presenting objective empirical evidence in a scientific manner to actually support your position I will be happy to look at it.

... My prediction is that your replies will get less succint, more swearing, and less attempts to actually answer my questions.

You don't know me so don't pretend you can predict behavior. On the other hand, cognitive dissonance theory predicts the behavior of people confronted with objective empirical evidence that contradicts strongly beliefs in the way they will try to reduce the dissonance. This includes ignoring or denying information that shows your beliefs to be invalid and trying to shift the debate away from the contradictory information.

This whole thread is due to your denial of the evidence for an old earth, and your attempts to discredit each piece of information and bring up irrelevant information are part and parcel of your attempts to reduce your personal dissonance.

The problem for you though, is that simply challenging each piece of information (by grasping at irrelevant material, misunderstanding information, making up wild conjectures, etc) is not enoug to show that the information is wrong ...

... you also have to explain how entirely different systems reach precisely and accurate agreement: why do the dendrochronologies match the uranium-thorium coral data?

If we look at the data from 0 (1950) to 10,000 BP (before 1950) for tree rings (three chronologies) and the uranitum-thorium dating of corals there is significant correlation between them in regards to measuring the 14C/12C ratios and calculating the theoretical 14C age of those samples.

Surely you are not going to tell me that corals are "precipitation sensitive" systems ...

I agree that Irish Oak and German Oak and many bristlecone pine trees currently show annual rings. I stated this in my post 27. This explains the consilient records. I specifically asked you in post 27 to present your evidence that the ancient white mountain Bristlecone Pines show the 1816 "year without a summer". I'm waiting for your proof of this.

I explained that after the cooler spring snow melt , bristlecone pines experience dry spells and then still experience significant summer rains. I gave you a link in post 27 that shows evidence for this within the last 12 months. So there has to be more than one ring due to the dry spells interrupting growth, and then the ideal summer rainfalls re-stimulating growth until winter stops growth again.

I asked you to present your evidence on how the older dead bristlecone pines did not rot so that rings can be analyzed thousands of years later.

In post 27 I also posted evidence of Europe undergoing dryer spells during the Holocene which would affect German/Irish chronologies.

This is you continuing to nit-pick information when the broad picture shows your mysterious precipitation conjecture to not only be irrelevant but incorrect.

... I gave you a link in post 27 that shows evidence for this within the last 12 months. ...

No, you gave me a link to the wet side of the mountain range that would be predicted to have significant rainfall, but which would not affect the weather on the "rain shadow" side where the Bristlecone Pines used in the dendrochronology grow.

... In post 27 I also posted evidence of Europe undergoing dryer spells during the Holocene which would affect German/Irish chronologies ...

And I showed you a link where the German oak/pine chronology reported the climate from that period. Again you must think the scientists doing these studies must be idiots if you keep thinking that you have discovered something new that they all missed.

Affect the climate - yes and agreed with by scientists - match your mysterious majic rainfall pattern - no you have not demonstrated that in the slightest. That is the difference between science and conjecture.

Curiously, I came across another correlation and calibration point:

http://en.wikipedia.org/...weather_events_of_535%E2%80%93536

quote:
The extreme weather events of 535–536 were the most severe and protracted short-term episodes of cooling in the Northern Hemisphere in the last 2,000 years.[1] The event is thought to have been caused by an extensive atmospheric dust veil, possibly resulting from a large volcanic eruption in the tropics,[2] or debris from space impacting the Earth.[3] Its effects were widespread, causing unseasonal weather, crop failures, and famines worldwide.[3]

Documentary evidence

The Byzantine historian Procopius recorded of 536, in his report on the wars with the Vandals, "during this year a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness...and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear."[4][5]

The Gaelic Irish Annals[6][7][8] record the following:

  • "A failure of bread in the year 536 AD" - the Annals of Ulster
  • "A failure of bread from the years 536–539 AD" - the Annals of Inisfallen

Scientific evidence

Tree ring analysis by dendrochronologist Mike Baillie, of the Queen's University of Belfast, shows abnormally little growth in Irish oak in 536 and another sharp drop in 542, after a partial recovery.[12] Similar patterns are recorded in tree rings from Sweden and Finland, in California's Sierra Nevada and in rings from Chilean Fitzroya trees.[citation needed] Ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show evidence of substantial sulfate deposits around 533–534 ± 2 years, evidence of an extensive acidic dust veil.[2]


Looks like volcanic (or meteor) evidence in the sulfate deposits in the ice cores at 533-534 AD ± 2, evidence of abnormal little growth in 536 AD and 542 AD in Irish oak and Sierra Nevada (Bristlecone Pine or Ponderosa Pine which is cross-dated with the Bristlecone Pine) rings.

If we assume a date of 536 AD for this event -- from the documented history, then the ice core date is within the margin of error (534 +/-2) and the oak data is 100% accurate (536 AD) and is matched by the Bristlecone Pine data.

Dendrochronology precision and accuracy for the three chronologies is 100% at 1816 AD, 100% at 536 AD and 99.5% at 8,000 years BP (before 1950 AD).

The extremely strong consilience of these systems with each other (very high correlation of accuracy and precision) AND the highly strong consilience of these systems with the uranium-thorium dating of the corals (precise and accurate) shows that these dates are highly accurate and precise.

We can also include Cariaco Basin in this consilience with the dendrochronology:

Cariaco Basin calibration update; revisions to calendar and 14C chronologies for core PL07-58PC.

Full PDF Download

quote:

You need to explain the precise and accurate correlation of these two data sets from two independent sources of data with an actual mechanism that would cause this precise and accurate match if you continue to contend that it is not due to measuring the same thing: the age of the samples in the objective empirical evidence.

Note the high degree of correlation and consilience between:

  1. Bristlecone Pine dendrochronology
  2. Irish oak dendrochronology
  3. German oak and pine dendrochronology
  4. the uranium-thorium coral chronology
  5. Cariaco Basin varve chronology

You need to explain why these 5 seperate and distinct systems have exactly the same patterns of 14C vs age. Nothing you have presented so far even comes close.

Further, I do not need to provide you with any more information on this as you have not shown one single piece of evidence that these are in error, what the source of the error is and documented evidence of this mysterious source actually affecting each of these systems in precisely and accurately the same way at the same time.

Do you understand that so far you have totally failed to present real objective empirical evidence that in any way contests these dates? Multiple dry spells in the Holocene (modern era) are not evidence that partial year ring growth patterns formed, just evidence that there would be years with smaller growth rings than normal -- evidence that was in fact FOUND in the data

RAZD: here is a mountain of evidence that 14C dating is precise and shows an old earth, at least 50,000 years old.
Mindspawn: doesn't this piece of dust on another mountain show that a piece of dust on your mountain may be off?
RAZD: you haven't (a) shown how it could or (b) provided evidence that it could. This evidence shows that there was no such effect.
Mindspawn: but doesn't this piece of dust on another mountain show that a piece of dust on your mountain may be off?
RAZD: here is more evidence of correlation and consilience in the data.
Mindspawn: but but doesn't this piece of dust on another mountain show that a piece of dust on your mountain may be off?
RAZD: No, I've shown you the evidence, read it.

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : ...

Edited by RAZD, : clarity


we are limited in our ability to understand
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Rebel American Zen Deist
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This message is a reply to:
 Message 35 by mindspawn, posted 11-20-2013 2:27 AM mindspawn has not yet responded

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 104 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(1)
Message 39 of 119 (711577)
11-20-2013 2:03 PM
Reply to: Message 36 by mindspawn
11-20-2013 5:45 AM


Re: Some annual rainfall weather information for your consideration
Most of this post just rehashes refuted arguments and fails to deal honestly with the data.

Correlations and consilience are NOT explained by making stuff up

The consilience is due to scientists cherry picking locations according to a loose match with current carbon dating assumptions. The result is that they choose locations with approximately 10-12 major precipitation events a year, due to the fact that the carbon dates are incorrect by a factor of about 10-12 times.

What is your evidence for this? Saying it does not make it so: you need objective empirical evidence. You have presented ZERO evidence that factually and accurately shows this to be the case. Without evidence that demonstrates your conjecture it is just fantasy.

I note that you are now claiming that the dates are due to some vast conspiracy among all the scientists involved with 14C calibration ...

... one of the mechanisms for reducing dissonance predicted by cognitive dissonance theory.

Enjoy.


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 36 by mindspawn, posted 11-20-2013 5:45 AM mindspawn has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 40 by RAZD, posted 11-20-2013 10:34 PM RAZD has responded
 Message 47 by mindspawn, posted 11-26-2013 3:16 AM RAZD has responded

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 104 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(2)
Message 40 of 119 (711636)
11-20-2013 10:34 PM
Reply to: Message 39 by RAZD
11-20-2013 2:03 PM


Summary of my debate arguments so far
Pursuant to suggestions from the PG I am going to summarize my posts to date (to eliminate duplication of points made) and then follow that up with posts specific to each particular point. It's not that I have the time for it, rather it is time to do this on this thread to prevent further scatter of issue (rabbit holes etc). This isn't necessarily intended for a reply, but as a reference of the arguments.

Feel free to do the same ... in fact I encourage it and would prefer it rather than having you reply to this message.

My posts on this thread start with - Message 20.

  1. Mindspawns original"main problem"
    1. "with carbon dating is its calibration against tree ring chronology"
    2. mindspawns original "main problem" with 14C dating has been answered - Message 28
    3. the "main problem" has been answered by showing that tree ring calendar age measurement is 100% accurate and precise for 1816AD the "year without a summer" and slightly over 99.5% accurate and precise for a bit over 8,000 years of record - Message 28 - and another correlation and calibration point for dendrochronology calendar is 536AD with 100% accuracy in the Irish oak chronology matched in other chronologies - Message 38
    4. the "main problem" has been answered by showing that the oak dendrochronologies are not water limited, and that the major source of water for the Bristlecone Pine comes from snow-melt in the spring, thus causing annual rings in all three highly consilient records. - Message 28
    5. the answer from mindspawn when coyote said that the "main problem" was answered by a graph showing several other correlations was to question each one and make up a fantasy about precipitation sensitivity affecting them simultaneously - Message 28
    6. this means that the goal posts have been moved rather than recognizing that the "main problem" has been answered. - Message 28

  2. Definitions

  3. Dendrochronology

    1. Dendrochronology basics
      1. challenge the dendrochronologies with some modicum of understanding of the work that has gone into them, not with uneducated fantasy. - Message 28
        1. tree ring correlation source (1): Reimer, P.J., Baillie, M. G. L., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Beck, J. W., Bertrand, C. J. H., Blackwell, P. G., Buck, C. E., Burr, G. S., Cutler, K. B., Paul E Damon, P. E., Edwards, R. L., Fairbanks, R. G., Friedrich, M., Guilderson, T. P., Hogg, A. G., Hughen, K. A., Kromer, B., McCormac, G., Manning, S., Ramsey, C. B., Reimer, R. W., Remmele, S., Southon, J. R., Stuiver, M., Talamo, S., Taylor, F. W., van der Plicht, J., Weyhenmeyer, C. E., 2004, INTCAL04 Terrestrial Radiocarbon Age Calibration, 0-26 CAL KYR BP. Radiocarbon 46, No 3, pages 1029-1058(30). here with the Full PDF Download Here - Message 28
        2. tree ring correlation source (2): Friedrich, M., Remmele, S., Kromer, B., Hofmann, J., Spurk, M., Kaiser, K.F., Orcel, C., Kuppers, M., 2004. The 12,460-year Hohenheim oak and pine tree-ring chronology from central Europe—a unique annual record for radiocarbon calibration and paleoenvironment reconstructions. Radiocarbon 46, No 3, pages 1111–1122. here with the Full PDF Download Here - Message 28

      2. It should come as no surprise that the thousands of dendrochronologist are actually able to discern the difference between rainfall patterns and annual patterns in the formation of rings. - Message 31
      3. this section can be expanded to cover false and missing ring determination, etc.

    2. Irish oak
      1. precipitation in Ireland shows Irish oak dendrochronology is not water limited and would not have rings formed in response to individual storms. - Message 21
      2. the Irish Oak chronology is not in a precipitation sensitive environment, they are indeed annual rings, Message 31
      3. oaks are often found in marshes and peat bogs where the acidic water preserves them. - Message 31
      4. another correlation and calibration point for dendrochronology is 536 - Message 38
      5. the accurate date of 536 AD for this event is from the documented history, - Message 38
      6. then the ice core date is within the margin of error (534 +/-2) - Message 38
      7. and the oak data is 100% accurate (536 AD) - Message 38

    3. German oak and pine
      1. precipitation in Germany shows German oak and pine dendrochronology is not water limited and would not have rings formed in response to individual storms. - Message 21
      2. the German Oak and Pine chronologies are not in precipitation sensitive environments, they are indeed annual rings, agreement. - Message 31
      3. oaks are often found in marshes and peat bogs where the acidic water preserves them. - Message 31
      4. they identify the Holocene (modern) climate variations from the tree ring data - Message 31
      5. I provided a link where the German oak/pine chronology reported the climate from the Holocene - Message 38

    4. Bristlecone Pine
      1. precipitation on the dry side of the Sierra Nevada mountains where the samples for the Bristlecone Pine dendrochronology are taken shows that most of it falls during the winter as snow (7.2"), and thus there would be robust formation of new cells in the spring and later spring and summer growth would be minor in comparison. The short growing season means that there would not be time for false rings to form from any rainfall events, certainly not from 11 to 12 events (0.4" per event). Thus we have annual rings. - Message 21
      2. the Bristlecone pine chronology is more likely to be missing some annual rings than to have rainfall rings. - Message 28
      3. Bristlecone Pines ecology has low year round temperatures and a short growing season -- there is no warm summer rain, there are no growth spurts, and there certainly are not 11 to 12 major storms a year. - Message 31
      4. " ... Annual precipitation is less than 12 inches (30cm), most of which arrives as snow in winter. ... " - Message 31
      5. If we take 60% (low) of the 12" as snow that is 7.2" of water available from spring snow melt. - Message 31
      6. The other 40% divided by your mysterious 11 to 12 event scenario is 4.8/12 or 0.4" of rain per event and this is totally insufficient to provide robust growth spurt anywhere near the 7.2" (or more) from snow melting. - Message 31
      7. In addition the growing season is so short that your 11 to 12 storms would be occurring in rapid sequence, with no opportunity for the cells to die off sufficiently to form a pseudo-winter band. - Message 31
      8. Bristlecone Pine rings are annual rings, and denial of this documented fact is delusion. - Message 31
      9. there are dead trees still standing older than any of the living trees (one is 7,000 years old). - Message 31
      10. The environment preserves fallen trees. - Message 31
      11. the record for oldest living tree is now 5063 years old this year. - Message 31
      12. The more time passes the more evidence there is of old growth and an older earth. - Message 31
      13. bristlecone pines found in warmer wetter areas can be (and are) included in the cross-dating check for the dendrochronology. - Message 31
      14. the 536 date is matched by the Bristlecone Pine data. - Message 38

    5. Tree ring accuracy and precision
      1. correlation between the Irish oak dendrochronology, the German oak and pine dendrochronology and the Bristlecone pine dendrochronology agree for age and climate markers with over 99.5% accuracy and precision for over 8,000 years of recorded growth. - Message 21
      2. the greatest difference is between the Bristlecone Pine and the two (2) oak dendrochronologies, where the pine chronology is 37 years younger than the oak chronologies at the 8,000 year mark, an error of less than 0.5% - Message 28
      3. the Irish Oak and the German Oak and Pine chronologies are not in precipitation sensitive environments, they are indeed annual rings, and they agree with the Bristlecone Pine chronology for over 8,000 years with 99.5% agreement. - Message 31
      4. Dry spells of less than a month duration are technically not dry spells but ordinary weather. - Message 31
      5. All that is needed is that the water replenish the water-table where the trees grow. - Message 31
      6. In the case of the Irish and German dendrochronologies this is not an issue due to the amount of normal rainfall. - Message 31
      7. again we see that these two dendrochronologies refute your argument: they are annual rings and they agree with the Bristlecone Pine chronology with 99.5% accuracy. - Message 31
      8. Droughts affect the climate - yes, found in the tree rings, and agreed with by climate scientists - Message 38
      9. Dendrochronology precision and accuracy for the three chronologies is 100% at 1816 AD, 100% at 536 AD and 99.5% at 8,000 years BP (before 1950 AD). - Message 38
      10. This very strong consilience between dendrochronologies demonstrates that the Bristlecone Pine is an annual ring chronology - Message 31

  4. Lake & Marine Varves
    1. Basics
      1. material can be added here

    2. Lake Suigetsu
      1. Lake Suigetsu has distinct annual layers formed by alternate diatom and clay layers - Message 23
      2. cores of the lake bottom were taken in the middle of the lake where they would not be disturbed by inflow patterns - Message 23
      3. the clay takes a long time to settle to the bottom of the lake - Message 23
      4. this means the variation in deposition from irregular stream input is vastly attenuated and averaged out - Message 23
      5. only during winter months is there sufficient time to form a discernable clay layer - Message 23
      6. diatom on the other hand settle within a day or two at most - Message 23
      7. the diatom deposition obscures any clay deposited at the same time - Message 23
      8. multiple blooms and deaths of diatoms would still create one diatom layer per year - Message 23
      9. the clay deposition rate is 1.2 mm/year for the Holocene (modern) period, confirming that the clay deposition is a slow process - Message 23
      10. the clay deposition rate is 0.61 mm/yr for the period before ~15,000 years BP (before 1950) - Message 23
      11. this confirms that Lake Suigetsu varves do not have sensitivity to rainfall patterns - Message 23
      12. there are 24.74 spring tides per year (one at new moon and one at full moon) not 11 or 12 - Message 23
      13. there are a number of volcanic eruptions documented in the Lake Suigetsu cores - Message 23
      14. two of those volcanic eruptions are dated in other locations with similar results - Message 23
      15. climate data for the Dunde Ice Cap matches Lake Suigetsu climate information. - Message 24
      16. I have shown that Suigetsu Lake varves are not sensitive to rainfall\runoff patterns, but are annual layers. - Message 31

    3. Lake Lisan
      1. the proper reference for Lake Lisan is #90: Schramm, A., Stein, M., Goldstein, S.L., 2000. Calibration of the 14C time scale to 440 ka by 234U–230Th dating of Lake Lisan sediments (last glacial Dead Sea). Earth and Planetary Science Letters 175, 27–40. - Message 28
      2. material from proper reference can be added here

    4. Cariaco Basin
      1. the proper reference for Cariaco Basin is #60: Hughen, K.A., Lehman, S., Southon, J., Overpeck, J., Marchal, O., Herring, C., Turnbull, J., 2004a. 14C activity and global carbon cycle changes over the past 50,000 years. Science 303 (5655), 202–207. - Message 28
      2. material from proper reference can be added here

    5. Varve Accuracy and Precision
      1. consilience of the Lake Suigetsu data and the Ohnuma Moor data for the volcanic eruption dates shows we can have a high degree of confidence in these dates. - Message 23
      2. We can also include Cariaco Basin in this consilience with the dendrochronology: Cariaco Basin calibration update; revisions to calendar and 14C chronologies for core PL07-58PC. - Message 38
      3. one needs to explain the precise and accurate correlation of these two data sets from two independent sources of data (German pine and Cariaco varves) with an actual mechanism that would cause this precise and accurate match (see graph) if one continues to contend that it is not due to measuring the actual age of the samples - Message 38
      4. material can be added here

  5. Ice Cores
    1. Basics
      1. pollen and seeds mixed in with the dust, which would only occur during the growing season, make annual layers that are easy to identify because of the dust band. - Message 24
      2. δ18O measurement is like the tree-ring band width measurement as an indicator of climate, and thus matching δ18O levels in different ice cores or other depositions can show consilience in the data or correlate one to the other. - Message 24

    2. Quelccaya ice cap
      1. The Quelccaya ice cap data shows climate that is consilient with the archeological record for Peru. - Message 24
      2. the Quelccaya layers show a period of sever weather that is known from history (the Little Ice Age) and the effects of a volcanic eruption nearby that occurred in 1600 AD, showing the accuracy and precision of these measurements. - Message 24

    3. Dunde Ice Cap
      1. the Dunde Ice Cap has the same kind of alternating layers of dust and snow as at Quelccaya, the same kind of climate information from the oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O), data that matches known climate markers, including the last ice age, - Message 24
      2. pollen data from the Dunde Ice Cap confirm climate changes - Message 24
      3. pollen data from the Dunde Ice Cap confirm the Little Ice Age dates - Message 24
      4. pollen data from the Dunde Ice Cap confirm the end of the last Ice Age - Message 24

    4. Greenland
      1. there are several Greenland ice cores - Message 24
      2. the latest and greatest are GRIP (Greenland Ice Project) and GISP2 (Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2), which were extracted at the Summit where the ice rarely melts. - Message 24
      3. GRIP was dated by counting back annual layers from the surface to c. 14,500 BP (before the present, dated 1950) using electrical conductivity method (ECM). - Message 24
      4. GISP2 was dated by visually counting annual hoar frost layers back to c. 12,000 BP and from 12,000 to 110,000 BP by visually counting annual dust layers. - Message 24
      5. Back to 12,000 BP, the GISP2 layer counting was validated by a very close agreement of three independent methods of counting the annual layers - Message 24
      6. From 12,000 BP back to 40,000 BP, the GISP2 layer counting was validated by a very close agreement of two independent methods of counting the annual layers - Message 24
      7. from 40,000 BP back to 110,000 BP GISP2 layer counting was validated by a close agreement of two independent methods - Message 24
      8. the top 12,000 GISP2 layers are annual because the snow that falls in the summer in Greenland is affected by the sun (which only shines in the summer) in such a way that its crystals become much more coarse grained than winter snow. - Message 24
      9. we can distinguish the ice core annual layers by the dust concentrations. - Message 24
      10. we can distinguished summer snow from winter snow by the electrical conductivity of the layers: in the spring and summer when the sun is shining, nitric acid is produced in the stratosphere and enters the snow, but this does not happen in the winter. - Message 24

    5. Ice Core Accuracy and Precision
      1. despite the different methods used for dating GRIP and GISP2, there is "excellent agreement" between these cores. - Message 24
      2. the consilience of the three main methods of counting the annual layers in the GISP2 core ensures the validity of the ice core dating. - Message 24
      3. The three methods have excellent correlation with each other down to 2500 m, that is, back to c. 57,000 BP (before 1950) - Message 24
      4. different methods are correlated to show the degree of consilience of data. - Message 25
      5. material can be added here

  6. Radiometric Measurements and Dating
    1. Carbon-14
      1. the measurement of the amount of 14C to 12C in a sample is precise and accurate to better than 99% - Message 22
      2. the calculation of theoretical 14C age is based on a simple exponential formula that will always return the same result for the same input, thus the raw 14C age is as precise and accurate as the measurements - Message 22
      3. λ14C is 5730 years +/- 40 - Message 22
      4. the raw 14C age formula is: t = {ln(Nf/No)/ln(1/2)} x t1/2
        = {ln(Nf/No)/ln(1/2)} x t1/2
        = -8267 x ln(Nf/No)
      5. Where No is the original level of the C-14 isotope in the sample (when it was alive and growing and absorbing atmospheric C-14), and Nf is the amount remaining.

    2. Uranium-Thorium dating
      1. uranium-thorium dating is precise and accurate, it is based on laboratory precise and accurate derivations for λ238U, λ234U, λ230Th and on the precise and accurate measurements of 238U, 234U and 230Th via simple mathematics that will always return the same age for the same data inputs. - Message 22
      2. the accuracy and precision of the quantity measurements by TIMMS is better than 99% - Message 22
      3. the reference list from the paper with that graph is presented for reference - Message 28
      4. the references for the graph are (in order on the graph) #87, #66, #8, #61, #111, #90 and #116 - Message 28
      5. the seven papers related to the graph should read, quoted from, and criticized in relation to the graph, not other papers ... as a start ... - Message 28
      6. uranium-thorium information on half-life determination is in the paper. - Message 33
      7. Here is the reference again (it is #17 in Message 28): Cheng, H., Edwards, R.L., Hoff, J., Gallup, C.D., Richards, D.A., Asmerom, Y., 2000. The half-lives of uranium-234 and thorium-230. Chemical Geology 169, 17–33. - Message 33
      8. the new half-lives agree within the margin of error with previously determined values and that the margins of error are reduced in the new determinations. - Message 33
      9. The 234U half-life is about 3‰ longer than previous values - Message 33
      10. the 230Th half-life is about 4‰ longer, - Message 33
      11. they confirm previous lab measurements with a difference of only 0.3% (older) for 234U and 0.4% (older) for 230Th - Message 33
      12. The accuracy is 99.8% for 234U. - Message 33
      13. The accuracy is 99.7% for 230Th. - Message 33
      14. They measured the age of the coral by uranium/thorium dating AND by uranium-uranium - Message 33
      15. that they got the same results means there is a highly consilient accurate and precise calendar age calculation for the coral samples. - Message 33
      16. half-life measurements were made in the lab - Message 37
      17. the references are available to check that the information presented in the article were proper and accurate representations of the science. - Message 37
      18. each of these half-lives are reported from labs independent of the other half-lives. - Message 37
      19. anyone can read the references for the article - Message 37
      20. The value of λ238 is well known - Message 37
      21. the quantities of 238U, 234U and 230Th are measured by highly accurate and precise (TIMS) methods (over 99% accuracy) - Message 37
      22. the calculation of λ234 and λ230 are simple math. - Message 37
      23. once a sample reaches a state of secular equilibrium the activities of all of the nuclides in the decay series are equal - Message 37
      24. 238U(λ238) = 234U(λ234)= 230Th(λ230), or - Message 37
        1. λ234 = λ238/(234U/238U) and - Message 37
        2. λ230 = V238/(230Th/238U). - Message 37

      25. The value of λ238 is well known - Message 37
      26. the quantities of 238U, 234U and 230Th are measured by highly accurate and precise (TIMS) methods - Message 37
      27. the calculation of λ234 and λ230 are simple math. - Message 37
      28. this is a different approach to measuring λ230 and λ234 from the previous lab determination - Message 37
      29. it operates as an independent check on those half-life determinations. - Message 37
      30. the precision and accuracy depend on the precision and accuracy of λ238, the precision and accuracy of measuring 238U quantity in the sample, the precision and accuracy of measuring 234U quantity in the sample and the precision and accuracy of measuring 230Th quantity in the sample - Message 37
      31. this has already been done for 234U and the result agrees with the previous value - Message 37
      32. the new values agree with the old lab determined values within the margin of error: - Message 37
      33. the results are refinements of previous determinations rather than significantly different. - Message 37
      34. the new results have smaller margins of error. - Message 37
      35. The margin of error for dating material under 50 ka (50,000 years) is negligible (the length of time under consideration in the coral study). - Message 37
      36. λ238U is 4.4683 +/- 0.0048 = 10^9 years (2σ ) - Message 37
      37. λ234U is 245,250 +/- 490 years (2σ ) - Message 33
      38. λ230Th is 75,690 +/- 230 years (2σ ) - Message 33

    3. Radiometric Accuracy and Precision
      1. the three dendrochronologies have over 99.5% precise and accurate determinations for calendar age from the tree rings and 99% accurate determination of raw 14C age and this should correlate with the uranium-thorium calendar ages and 14C ages - Message 22
      2. the correlation between dendrochronology and uranium-thorium data shows a very strong, precise and accurate consilience between the two independent systems, validating the correlation of 14C with calendar age (as shown in graphs). - Message 22
      3. from two different graphs, from two different systems -- one for uranium-thorium data and one for Lake Suigetsu data (that also shows some different coral data not reviewed yet on this thread) -- we see a high degree of agreement - consilience - in the results. - Message 23
      4. consilience of Lake Suigetsu data with the uranium-thorium coral data -- completely independent systems -- provides very high confidence in these results. - Message 23
      5. consilience between the coral data and the highly precise and accurate dendrochronology provides very high confidence in these results. - Message 23
      6. material can be added here
      7. we can calibrate 14C to improve the accuracy of results - Message 25
      8. the calibration generally makes the corrected dates younger - Message 25
      9. independent uranium-uranium and uranium-thorium date information that is then compared to the 14C data from the same core sample to show the correlation between them (see graph) - Message 33
      10. This precise correlation with highly accurate data allows calibration of the 14C dates to increase the accuracy of those dates. - Message 33

  7. Overall Correlations, Consilience and Calibration

    1. the consilience between different systems shows that the correlation of 14C to calendar age is valid and 99% precise, but ~90% accurate - Message 25
    2. coyote showed midspawn the graph of 14C correlations with several sets of data so that he could see the consilience of data - Message 28
    3. why do the dendrochronologies match the uranium-thorium coral data? - Message 38
    4. The extremely strong consilience of these systems with each other (very high correlation of accuracy and precision) AND the highly strong consilience of these systems with the uranium-thorium dating of the corals (precise and accurate) shows that these dates are highly accurate and precise. - Message 38
    5. one needs to explain why these 5 separate and distinct systems have exactly the same patterns of 14C vs calendar age: Bristlecone Pine dendrochronology, Irish oak dendrochronology, German oak and pine dendrochronology, the uranium-thorium coral chronology, and the Cariaco Basin varve chronology. - Message 38

  8. Misinformation, misdirection and evasion, cognitive dissonance behavior
    1. paper referenced by mindspawn on Lake Lisan has absolutely nothing about 14C dating, calibration of 14C, tree ring counting or lake varve counting. - Message 25
    2. the 11 to 12 year conjecture by mindspawn is not supported by any objective empirical data, is a made up number, and it is invalidated by actual objective empirical evidence - Message 25
    3. even major weather events are not the same around the world - Message 31
    4. please present data of these 11 to 12 major patterns: I'm sure that meteorologists will be mighty interested in this made up factoid. - Message 31
    5. the 11 to 12 major pattern claim is falsified by the differences observed in the climate between Ireland, Germany and the White Mountain peaks, - Message 31
    6. two references for weather presented by mindspawn are both to the wet side of the White Mountains, they are at significantly lower elevations, and in the area where the mountain range strips the air of moisture and not representative of the weather where the trees are growing. - Message 31
    7. Lake Lisan was referenced on the graph in question, but the study presented by mindspawn had nothing to do with 14C measurements or correlations - Message 28
    8. the paper presented by mindspawn was not the paper cited for the graph data - Message 28
    9. pretendings that it is the paper in question makes it a red herring (rabbit hole) - Message 28
    10. the correlations and consilience of data are still not explained by mindspawn - Message 31
    11. cognitive dissonance theory predicts the behavior of people confronted with objective empirical evidence that contradicts strongly beliefs in the way they will try to reduce the dissonance. - Message 38
    12. This includes ignoring or denying information that shows their beliefs to be invalid and trying to shift the debate away from the contradictory information. - Message 38
    13. This whole thread is due to mindspawn's denial of the evidence for an old earth, and his attempts to discredit each piece of information and bring up irrelevant information are part and parcel of his attempts to reduce his personal dissonance. - Message 38
    14. simply challenging each piece of information is not enough to show that the information is wrong - Message 38
    15. one also has to explain how entirely different systems reach precisely and accurate agreement: - Message 38
    16. the broad picture shows mindspawn's mysterious precipitation conjecture to not only be irrelevant but incorrect. - Message 38
    17. a link to the wet side of the mountain range would be predicted to have significant rainfall, but which would not affect the weather on the "rain shadow" side where the Bristlecone Pines used in the dendrochronology grow. - Message 38
    18. match the mysterious mindspawn magic rainfall pattern - not demonstrated in the slightest. - Message 38
    19. Multiple dry spells in the Holocene (modern era) are not evidence that partial year ring growth patterns formed, just evidence that there would be years with smaller growth rings than normal -- evidence that was in fact FOUND in the data. - Message 38
    20. Correlations and consilience are NOT explained by making stuff up - Message 39
    21. where is the evidence for the mysterious mindspawn magic 11 to 12 factor? - Message 39
    22. Saying it does not make it so: one needs objective empirical evidence. - Message 39
    23. Without evidence that demonstrates a conjecture is valid it is just fantasy. - Message 39
    24. claiming that the dates are due to some vast conspiracy among all the scientists involved with 14C calibration is another of the mechanisms for reducing dissonance predicted by cognitive dissonance theory. - Message 39

  9. Age of the earth
    1. objective empirical evidence shows consistently, consiliently, that the earth is old, very very old ... - Message 25
    2. The earth is old, very very old: get used to it. - Message 33
    3. this section can be expanded

Second revision done. I will likely edit this list again to combine some of the repeated arguments and to organize each category better ...

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : rev 1

Edited by RAZD, : rev2


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 39 by RAZD, posted 11-20-2013 2:03 PM RAZD has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 41 by RAZD, posted 11-21-2013 3:28 PM RAZD has acknowledged this reply

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 104 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 41 of 119 (711729)
11-21-2013 3:28 PM
Reply to: Message 40 by RAZD
11-20-2013 10:34 PM


Dendrochronology Basics

Dendrochronology Basics

Dendrochronology is the study of time and climate through the evidence of tree-rings and related data. There are several thousand dendrochronologies currently being used and expanded in the world, some of these are "floating" chronologies (where the end dates are not know) and some are absolute. More data is being reviewed every year, and the chronologies are being extended, cross-referenced and check by other measures.

We can start with the three (3) oldest trees in the world -- all Bristlecone Pines from the White Mountains of the Sierra Nevada:

  • the "Methuselah" tree, with an estimated germination date of 2832 BCE (wiki)(1)
  • the "Prometheus" tree (aka WPN-114), with a measured age of 4862 when cut down in 1964 for research, however this is a minimum age due to the core of the tree is missing, giving it a minimum germination date of 2898 BCE (but likely older). (wiki)(2)
  • the "Schulman" tree (my name for the tree because Schulman took the core and he was a pioneer in dendrochronology in the area), with an estimated germination date of 3051 BCE (wiki)(3)
  • the "Ancient Sentinels" - standing dead trees, as old as 7,000 years, no information on their germination dates at this point (article)(4)


"Ancient Sentinels"(5)

You might think that measuring the age of trees is a simple matter of just counting the rings. In practice it is a bit more complicated.

Dendrochronology website by Leonard Miller(6)

quote:
Simply put, dendrochronology is the dating of past events (climatic changes) through study of tree ring growth. Botanists, foresters and archaeologists began using this technique during the early part of the 20th century. Discovered by A.E. Douglass from the University of Arizona, who noted that the wide rings of certain species of trees were produced during wet years and, inversely, narrow rings during dry seasons.

Each year a tree adds a layer of wood to its trunk and branches thus creating the annual rings we see when viewing a cross section. New wood grows from the cambium layer between the old wood and the bark. In the spring, when moisture is plentiful, the tree devotes its energy to producing new growth cells. These first new cells are large, but as the summer progresses their size decreases until, in the fall, growth stops and cells die, with no new growth appearing until the next spring. The contrast between these smaller old cells and next year's larger new cells is enough to establish a ring, thus making counting possible.

Lets say the sample was taken from a standing 4,000 year-old (but long dead) bristlecone. Its outer growth rings were compared with the inner rings of a living tree. If a pattern of individual ring widths in the two samples prove to be identical at some point, we can carry dating further into the past. With this method of matching overlapping patterns found in different wood samples, bristlecone chronologies have been established almost 9,000 years into the past.

A number of tree samples must be examined and cross dated from any given site to avoid the possibility of all the collected data showing a missing or extra ring. Further checking is done until no inconsistency appears. Often several sample cores are taken from each tree examined. These must be compared not only with samples from other trees at the same location but also with those at other sites in the region. Additionally, the average of all data provides the best estimate of climate averages. A large portion of the effects of non-climatic factors that occur in the various site data is minimized by this averaging scheme.


Archaeological Tree-Ring Dating at the Millennium - PDF(7)

quote:

The fundamental principle of dendrochronology is crossdating (Fig. 1), which is classically defined as “the procedure of matching ring width variations . . . among trees that have grown in nearby areas, allowing the identification of the exact year in which each ring formed” (Fritts, 1976, p. 534). Fritts and Swetnam (1989, p. 121) added that crossdating is a procedure that “utilizes the presence and absence of [ring] synchrony from different cores and trees to identify the growth rings that may be misinterpreted” (Fritts and Swetnam, 1989, p. 121). It is well known that many tree species add one growth ring per year. The problem for dendrochronologists is that in particularly stressful years many tree species will either fail to produce a ring, which leads to a “missing ring,” or produce an incomplete, or “locally absent ring,” “lens,” or “moon ring” (Krapiec, 1999; see Fig. 2).

To complicate matters further, certain tree species may produce a “double” or “false” ring; when the earlywood cells (i.e., those in the ring that are larger, thin walled, and therefore lighter) are being produced during a growing season, and particularly stressful climatic conditions return and lead to a general decrease in the rate of tree growth, a band of latewood cells (i.e., those that are smaller, thicker walled, and therefore darker) will be produced. If and when favorable conditions return during that growing season, earlywood cell production will begin anew, and the normal band of latewood cells will be created at the end of the growing season (Jacoby, 2000a). The key to distinguishing between double or false rings and annual rings lies in the nature of the transition between the latewood and earlywood cells: in a false or double ring the transition is gradual due to the phasing in and out of favorable growing conditions (Fig. 3).

In an annual tree ring, the transition from one ring’s latewood to the next ring’s earlywood is abrupt because ring production actually stopped for some period of time, typically during winter.

The parameters used in crossdating differ depending on geographic and climatological variables and their effects on tree growth, as well as the research questions of interest. Most commonly, crossdating is performed on ring-width variation, but successful crossdating has been accomplished using variations in ring density,

... Crossdating is possible because trees growing in the same (variously defined) regions and under the right conditions record the same climate signal in their rings. Although their growth patterns may differ in absolute size, the relative size of rings in trees from the same stand or region will often be the same, because the climate signal affects them all the same way. Other factors (e.g. competition, insect infestation, accidents, etc.) may have an effect as well.

... Once a number of skeleton-plotted series are compared, all missing and double rings are identified, and the series have been correctly crossdated, a summary master chronology is developed and used to visually crossdate new specimens (Douglass, 1941). ...

... ring-width variations are usually measured with great precision, and sophisticated statistical techniques and computer programs are then used to crossdate the ring-width measurements (Holmes, 1983; see Baillie, 1995). ...

Replication in dendrochronology occurs at three empirical and analytical levels. It occurs when independent tree-ring samples from the same geographic area yield the same ring-width pattern because they record the same climate signal, it occurs when independent tree-ring chronologies can be crossdated (for the same reason), and it occurs when dendrochronologists arrive at the same results, independently, because of the efficacy of the crossdating technique. A classic example of replication at all levels occurred when LaMarche and Harlan (1973), of the University of Arizona, independently crossdated a bristlecone pine chronology from the White Mountains of California, which was then used to calibrate the radiocarbon time scale. ...


NOAA Dendrochronology Slide Website(8)

Pay particular attention to slide 6 on false rings and how they are distinguished from true annual rings, slide 7 on partial or locally absent rings, slide 8 on sampling techniques, slide 16 on bristlecone pine, and slide 17 on correlation of rings to days of precipitation.

quote:
(Slide 6)Under certain climatic conditions, some species will form intra-annual or false rings . If climatic conditions are unfavorable to growth during the growing season, the tree may mistakenly sense that the end of the season is near, and produce dark, thick-walled latewood cells. Improved conditions will cause the tree to produce lighter, thinner-walled cells once again, until the true end of the season. The resulting annual ring looks like two rings, but when this first ring is closely inspected it can be identified as false because the latewood boundary grades back into the earlywood. False rings occur in a number of species such as the Mexican cypress pictured here. Young ponderosa pines in southeastern Arizona commonly contain false rings as well. In this region, winter and early spring rains provide moisture to trees in the early part of the growing season. By May and June, the driest part of the year, trees have used up the available moisture and, if stressed enough, will begin to produce latewood cells. However, monsoon moisture usually begins to fall in July, and with this moisture, trees will again produce earlywood cells.

(Slide 7)Under other climate conditions, trees may produce only a partial ring or may fail to produce a ring at all. This may occur in a year in which conditions for growth are particularly harsh. These rings are called locally absent or missing rings and are commonly found in trees which are extremely sensitive to climate. ... This ring gets pinched between the rings to the left and right of it and is not visible at all in the lower portion of the slide. Very old and/or stressed trees may also produce very small, barely visible rings only a few cells wide which are called micro-rings. Because of the occurrence of false, locally absent, micro, and missing rings, it is especially important to prepare surfaces carefully and use the technique of crossdating to ensure exact calendar year dates for individual rings.

(Slide 8)The work of a dendrochronologist starts with the collection of samples in the field. The particular problem being addressed will dictate site and tree selection so that trees sampled are sensitive to the environmental variable of interest. ... Most commonly, tree-ring samples are collected using a hand-held increment borer to remove a small core of wood roughly 5mm in diameter from the trunk of the tree, ideally from bark to pith. ...Usually, two cores are taken from each tree to facilitate crossdating and to reduce the effects of ring-width variations related to differences in the two sides of the tree. The number of trees sampled from the site depends on how sensitive the trees are to the environment, but the average is about 20-30 trees.


Note that Foxtail pines (Pinus balfouriana) are closely related to Bristlecone pines ((Pinus longaeva), but the ranges of Great Basin bristlecone, Rocky Mountain bristlecone, and Foxtail pines do not overlap. The Colorado-Green River drainage has separated the 2 Bristlecone pine species for millennia. All three species are used to cross-check the Bristlecone Pine chronology.

Of particular note is the type of environmental conditions that cause false rings compared to the type of environmental conditions that would prevail in certain locations and the conditions -- such as what prevails for the Bristlecone pine, Pinus longaeva -- that are more likely to produce missing or micro rings, a condition that would make the trees appear younger than they really are.

Dendrochronologies are accurate and precise, due to identification of false and missing rings and determining annual rings from numerous samples are areas.

It should come as no surprise that the thousands of dendrochronologist working on the chronologies are actually able to discern the difference between rainfall or stress patterns and annual patterns in the formation of rings as the assemble the chronologies.

The challenge for people that honestly question the dendrochronologies is to have some modicum of understanding of the work that has gone into them, rather than flail away with dishonest or uneducated fantasy.

Note in passing that the minimum age for the earth is 7,000 years based on single Bristlecone Pines having lived that long. This also means that there was no major catastrophic event that would have disturbed their growing on top of these mountains -- no world wide flood occurred in this time.

Enjoy.



References
  1. Wikipedia, Methuselah, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_%28tree%29, accessed 23 Nov 2013
  2. Wikipedia, Prometheus, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prometheus_%28tree%29, accessed 23 Nov 2013
  3. Wikipedia, Oldest Tree, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_trees, accessed 23 Nov 2013
  4. Ara, Ancient Trees, website, 14 Feb 2012 http://www.ashtarcommandcrew.net/...topics/the-ancient-trees, accessed 23 Nov 2013
  5. Miller, L., The Ancient Bristlecone Pine, website sonic.net (c) 1995-2005 Photo Gallery
  6. Miller, L., The Ancient Bristlecone Pine, website sonic.net (c) 1995-2005 Dendrochronology
  7. Nash, S. E., 2002, Archaeological Tree-Ring Dating at the Millennium, Journal of Archaeological Research, Vol. 10, No. 3, September 2002 ((c) 2002) Full PDF Download Here
  8. Anonymous, "Paleo Slide Set: Tree Rings: Ancient Chronicles of Environmental Change " NOAA Paleoclimatology. Updated 20 Jul 2004. accessed 21nov2013 from NOAA Dendrochronology Slide Website

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