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Author Topic:   Human Induced Global warming is just another conjob for the ignorant.
Coyote
Member (Idle past 854 days)
Posts: 6117
Joined: 01-12-2008


Message 6 of 65 (716098)
01-12-2014 12:02 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by jar
01-12-2014 11:32 AM


The smaller the percentage of human induced global warming in relation to the combined natural and human contribution, the MORE we must reduce that human contribution if we are to have any effect.

That is correct, and that is also the problem.

Right now, we don't know the exact percentages from natural and human contributions.

It is very possible that no amount of reduction of human contributions will make any difference--after all, warming has been going on since the middle of the last ice age. If this is the case we should be spending our research money on figuring out what to do about the effects of the warming.

But before we spend huge sums of money on one fix or another, it would make sense to determine to what extent humans are contributing to the warming. Then we'll know which way to jump.


Religious belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge.

Belief gets in the way of learning--Robert A. Heinlein

How can I possibly put a new idea into your heads, if I do not first remove your delusions?--Robert A. Heinlein

It's not what we don't know that hurts, it's what we know that ain't so--Will Rogers

If I am entitled to something, someone else is obliged to pay--Jerry Pournelle

If a religion's teachings are true, then it should have nothing to fear from science...--dwise1


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by jar, posted 01-12-2014 11:32 AM jar has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 7 by jar, posted 01-12-2014 12:36 PM Coyote has responded
 Message 27 by Taq, posted 01-14-2014 7:58 PM Coyote has not yet responded

  
Coyote
Member (Idle past 854 days)
Posts: 6117
Joined: 01-12-2008


Message 9 of 65 (716104)
01-12-2014 1:15 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by jar
01-12-2014 12:36 PM


Re: Why?
We also need to address and debate the consequences and so any dicussion on how big human contributions are is just wasted effort.

Before we can effectively address and debate the consequences it might be wise to have a better understanding of the exact problem.

And if the contributions from humans are insignificant, and don't change anything, the money would be far better spent elsewhere.


Religious belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge.

Belief gets in the way of learning--Robert A. Heinlein

How can I possibly put a new idea into your heads, if I do not first remove your delusions?--Robert A. Heinlein

It's not what we don't know that hurts, it's what we know that ain't so--Will Rogers

If I am entitled to something, someone else is obliged to pay--Jerry Pournelle

If a religion's teachings are true, then it should have nothing to fear from science...--dwise1


This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by jar, posted 01-12-2014 12:36 PM jar has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 10 by jar, posted 01-12-2014 1:33 PM Coyote has not yet responded
 Message 11 by nwr, posted 01-12-2014 3:35 PM Coyote has not yet responded
 Message 15 by NosyNed, posted 01-12-2014 4:12 PM Coyote has responded

  
Coyote
Member (Idle past 854 days)
Posts: 6117
Joined: 01-12-2008


Message 17 of 65 (716128)
01-12-2014 5:14 PM
Reply to: Message 15 by NosyNed
01-12-2014 4:12 PM


Re: Clear Problem
I almost agree. What I don't agree with is "exact". We don't have to distinguish between human activity causing 50 % of the problem and our activity causing 35 or 65 %. Anywhere in that range makes us significant in my view. Others might say anywhere from 20 % upwards but I'm not going to fuss about the exact number.

I agree that something above 20% from human activity would certainly be a problem, and one that we could work to reduce.

I do agree we need to understand our contribution to the climate change that is underway as we type here.

What is much more difficult to determine is how serious the consequences will be. The speed with which we take action and the magnitude of the resources we commit should be based on the seriousness of the consequences. Which I think is implied by your comment.

The consequences of sea level rise are serious. Close to a majority of the US population lives along the coast, or soon will, although not all of those are within a meter of two of the current sea level.

If CO2 levels keep climbing without mitigation then we know that we'll have a 200 foot rise in sea level. We just don't know how fast. We'd better figure that out really, really soon. If we don't want to commit too many resources to mitigation yet then we sure has hell should be committing lots to determining what the risks are.

I agree. That really is my main point.

And the current atmosphere, in which global warming proponents literally demonize anyone who suggests that, is both unhealthy and unscientific.

Perhaps now is the time to really emphasize nuclear power, using the newer designs that are now available.


Religious belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge.

Belief gets in the way of learning--Robert A. Heinlein

How can I possibly put a new idea into your heads, if I do not first remove your delusions?--Robert A. Heinlein

It's not what we don't know that hurts, it's what we know that ain't so--Will Rogers

If I am entitled to something, someone else is obliged to pay--Jerry Pournelle

If a religion's teachings are true, then it should have nothing to fear from science...--dwise1


This message is a reply to:
 Message 15 by NosyNed, posted 01-12-2014 4:12 PM NosyNed has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 21 by NosyNed, posted 01-12-2014 6:36 PM Coyote has not yet responded
 Message 34 by Dr Adequate, posted 01-17-2014 11:46 AM Coyote has not yet responded

  
Coyote
Member (Idle past 854 days)
Posts: 6117
Joined: 01-12-2008


Message 40 of 65 (716501)
01-17-2014 8:45 PM
Reply to: Message 37 by Taq
01-17-2014 6:59 PM


Re: Repent! The end is nigh!
In a bit of a paradox, AGW may have cancelled out the next glaciation cycle.

The last glaciation had ice thousands of feet thick along most of the northern US.

That is not a very good idea, as the various vegetation zones would all be moved far to the south as well. Mostly out of the US.

This is why it is a really good idea to figure out which way the frog should jump before we put all of our available wealth into one direction or the other.


Religious belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge.

Belief gets in the way of learning--Robert A. Heinlein

How can I possibly put a new idea into your heads, if I do not first remove your delusions?--Robert A. Heinlein

It's not what we don't know that hurts, it's what we know that ain't so--Will Rogers

If I am entitled to something, someone else is obliged to pay--Jerry Pournelle

If a religion's teachings are true, then it should have nothing to fear from science...--dwise1


This message is a reply to:
 Message 37 by Taq, posted 01-17-2014 6:59 PM Taq has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 42 by jar, posted 01-18-2014 9:10 AM Coyote has not yet responded

  
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