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Author Topic:   Ukraine's future
1.61803
Member (Idle past 1504 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 46 of 65 (722897)
03-25-2014 5:22 PM


Anschluss part 1
Well part of Ukraine has been annexed by the Sovi....er I mean
the Russian Federation. Tanks and troops amassing on the border. Stay tuned to see if the west can scare the bear into not taking more of the pie.
Edited by 1.61803, : add photo

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

  
Coyote
Member (Idle past 2106 days)
Posts: 6117
Joined: 01-12-2008


Message 47 of 65 (723027)
03-25-2014 11:48 PM


At this point one might study the years and events leading up to WWII.
Kerry even looks remarkably like Neville Chamberlain, behaves in the same clueless manner, and seems to have learned nothing from the history of that era.
The question at this point is how far Putin wants to push it. As in the decade leading up to WWII, it looks like he is the deciding factor. We'll see what lesson he takes from that era's history Real Soon Now I suspect.
I hope things turn out better than they did back then...

Religious belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge.
Belief gets in the way of learning--Robert A. Heinlein
How can I possibly put a new idea into your heads, if I do not first remove your delusions?--Robert A. Heinlein
It's not what we don't know that hurts, it's what we know that ain't so--Will Rogers
If I am entitled to something, someone else is obliged to pay--Jerry Pournelle
If a religion's teachings are true, then it should have nothing to fear from science...--dwise1
"Multiculturalism" does not include the American culture. That is what it is against.

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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1504 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


(1)
Message 48 of 65 (723061)
03-26-2014 10:26 AM
Reply to: Message 47 by Coyote
03-25-2014 11:48 PM


Hi Coyote, I agree.
By the time Adolf invaded Czech it was pretty much to late.
Putin is smart. He will poke and prod for weaknesses and take what he can and already has. Crimea is worth more to him than being in the Big 8 club or sanctions. He looks strong and in control and the rest of the world stands by waiting for his next move. I don't think he would risk or want an all out war because that would not suit his plans. He is a savy poker player imo.
The question now is who is going to call his bluff.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

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Replies to this message:
 Message 49 by AZPaul3, posted 03-27-2014 4:41 PM 1.61803 has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 49 of 65 (723206)
03-27-2014 4:41 PM
Reply to: Message 48 by 1.61803
03-26-2014 10:26 AM


The question now is who is going to call his bluff.
And how does one do that? Throw out some diplomats? Freeze some bank accounts? Refuse to sell tractors and tangerine tarts?
How about war? You really want to call his bluff you have to follow through. You have to go in and force them out. Anyone prepared to do that?
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 48 by 1.61803, posted 03-26-2014 10:26 AM 1.61803 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 51 by 1.61803, posted 03-27-2014 5:41 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 50 of 65 (723207)
03-27-2014 4:55 PM


9 January 1986:

  
1.61803
Member (Idle past 1504 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 51 of 65 (723213)
03-27-2014 5:41 PM
Reply to: Message 49 by AZPaul3
03-27-2014 4:41 PM


AZPaul3 writes:
How about war? You really want to call his bluff you have to follow through. You have to go in and force them out. Anyone prepared to do that?
What is the alternative?
Is the world prepared to start allowing larger more powerful countries to take over what they will?
If we do nothing what message does that send?
Am I prepared to go to war? No, of course I choose peace. But sometimes the most peace loving person must act. A bully only understands force. You let him steal your lunch money, the next day he may want your shoes.
And so on.
I think the world will stand by and wait to see what President Putin's next move is. We will most likely redraw the maps and hope Putin is satisfied with his slice of newly aquired territory.
Edited by 1.61803, : redundant.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

This message is a reply to:
 Message 49 by AZPaul3, posted 03-27-2014 4:41 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 52 by AZPaul3, posted 03-27-2014 10:58 PM 1.61803 has replied
 Message 56 by ringo, posted 03-28-2014 12:28 PM 1.61803 has seen this message but not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 52 of 65 (723237)
03-27-2014 10:58 PM
Reply to: Message 51 by 1.61803
03-27-2014 5:41 PM


Am I prepared to go to war? No, of course I choose peace. But sometimes the most peace loving person must act. A bully only understands force.
Agreed. Which means we land troops at Sevastopol. But we need to answer three questions before we make such a decision:
- Would any sane man push the button?
- Given his obvious megalomania is Putin such a sane man?
- Are you willing to bet the lives of a few hundred million people and the entire economic structure of the planet on your analysis?
We will most likely redraw the maps and hope Putin is satisfied with his slice of newly aquired territory.
Appeasement never placates the war lords. We already know this.
There is this one hope. For centuries the Crimea has been one of the most vital strategic resources for the Russian. With the recently past political developments in the Ukraine, the prospect of a new not-so-friendly government pushing their allegiance more towards Europe, I could see where Moscow would have to consider what happens if they lose their unfettered access to those most vital ports. From their point of view it could not be good in the least and would cost them decades in military and economic assets to replace, if that could even be done. If the Russian feels secure again with this move maybe the bear will quiesce. If not then we are back to the three questions above.
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 51 by 1.61803, posted 03-27-2014 5:41 PM 1.61803 has replied

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 Message 53 by 1.61803, posted 03-28-2014 10:35 AM AZPaul3 has replied

  
1.61803
Member (Idle past 1504 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 53 of 65 (723253)
03-28-2014 10:35 AM
Reply to: Message 52 by AZPaul3
03-27-2014 10:58 PM


AZPaul3 writes:
-Would any sane man push the button?
No.
- Given his obvious megalomania is Putin such a sane man?
I believe he is.
- Are you willing to bet the lives of a few hundred million people and the entire economic structure of the planet on your analysis?
Sometimes we have no choice.
Sometimes war is thrust upon us. Sometimes we must act.
Ukraine could lose more than a port. The could lose their whole country.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

This message is a reply to:
 Message 52 by AZPaul3, posted 03-27-2014 10:58 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 54 by AZPaul3, posted 03-28-2014 11:11 AM 1.61803 has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 54 of 65 (723255)
03-28-2014 11:11 AM
Reply to: Message 53 by 1.61803
03-28-2014 10:35 AM


The Spread
I agree with #1 . No brainer. #2 is a bit more problematic for me, not that I think you are wrong, just that I'm not sure we really know with any adequate comfort level. For me, then, that means I cannot risk #3. Fortunately I'm not the one having to make such a decision.
But for the sake of further discussion let us assume you are correct and we go to war with Russia in a strictly conventional manner. Do you think that such a war could be limited to just the Crimean peninsula? Both nations have such far flung interests and assets, and war being what it is, I would doubt the Russian would feel compelled to keep the destruction of battle in it's own back yard. And things could get really messy from there. Back to #3?
This whole damn thing is lose-lose for the entire world.
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 53 by 1.61803, posted 03-28-2014 10:35 AM 1.61803 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 55 by 1.61803, posted 03-28-2014 12:19 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
1.61803
Member (Idle past 1504 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 55 of 65 (723264)
03-28-2014 12:19 PM
Reply to: Message 54 by AZPaul3
03-28-2014 11:11 AM


Re: Arm chair speculation
AZPaul3 writes:
#2 is a bit more problematic for me, not that I think you are wrong, just that I'm not sure we really know with any adequate comfort level. For me, then, that means I cannot risk
Nikita Khrushchev crazy as he may of been did not want to press the button. (thankfully!!) I do not think Putin is anymore crazier.
AZPaul3 writes:
Do you think that such a war could be limited to just the Crimean peninsula?
I honestly do not think Putin is really prepared to go to all out war. He would most likely lose and drag his country into economic collaspe due to starting a war and such.
But if NATO shows weakness he will invade. I am almost certain of it. I hope I am just a bias cold war baby.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

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 Message 54 by AZPaul3, posted 03-28-2014 11:11 AM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 57 by AZPaul3, posted 03-29-2014 8:06 AM 1.61803 has replied

  
ringo
Member (Idle past 412 days)
Posts: 20940
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005


Message 56 of 65 (723267)
03-28-2014 12:28 PM
Reply to: Message 51 by 1.61803
03-27-2014 5:41 PM


~1.6 writes:
Is the world prepared to start allowing larger more powerful countries to take over what they will?
It always has been before.

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 Message 51 by 1.61803, posted 03-27-2014 5:41 PM 1.61803 has seen this message but not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(1)
Message 57 of 65 (723329)
03-29-2014 8:06 AM
Reply to: Message 55 by 1.61803
03-28-2014 12:19 PM


Re: Arm chair speculation
Something positive, cautious maybe. Putin called Obama and asked for talks toward a diplomatic solution.
I do not think Russia will step away since the Crimea is so strategically valuable to the Kremlin. But I think some assurance from Putin that this was a vital interest of national security, with historical justifications, and not the beginnings of a series of land grabs, may help ease the situation.
In the days of Realpolitik US and Soviet spheres of influence, and their ability to take actions to secure their vital strategic interests within those spheres, were informally recognized. The Crimean Peninsula has been a very real strategic military and economic national asset for the Russian since before Catherine the Great got up the balls to take it for just those reasons.
On the ground, the reality is there is nothing we can do to reverse this without putting the whole world in a very dangerous situation. Diplomatic talks may be able to resolve the fallout, the sanctions and recriminations, but I would not expect the Kremlin to even consider leaving Crimea.

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 Message 55 by 1.61803, posted 03-28-2014 12:19 PM 1.61803 has replied

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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1504 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 58 of 65 (723363)
03-31-2014 10:01 AM
Reply to: Message 57 by AZPaul3
03-29-2014 8:06 AM


Re: Arm chair speculation
Talks have stalled. No deal made.
But at least there is talk. The fact that Russia is talking is
hopeful, put I agree with you Crimea is Russian territory now unless someone has the will to kick them out.
As you said lets hope that appeases the bear.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

This message is a reply to:
 Message 57 by AZPaul3, posted 03-29-2014 8:06 AM AZPaul3 has seen this message but not replied

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 59 of 65 (733472)
07-17-2014 1:40 PM


Rumours that the latest Malaysian plane was shot down by Russia/Ukraine?
What kind of equipment would one need to fire 11km straight up? Another point of ignition in an already unstable area, I fear.

Replies to this message:
 Message 60 by Theodoric, posted 07-17-2014 4:54 PM Modulous has replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9076
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 60 of 65 (733499)
07-17-2014 4:54 PM
Reply to: Message 59 by Modulous
07-17-2014 1:40 PM


Re: Rumours that the latest Malaysian plane was shot down by Russia/Ukraine?
What kind of equipment would one need to fire 11km straight up?
The kind of equipment Russia is sending to the separatists. Anti-aircraft batteries capable of doing this were reported in the hands of the rebels last week.

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts
"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 59 by Modulous, posted 07-17-2014 1:40 PM Modulous has replied

Replies to this message:
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