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Possibility Order of Magnetude Metric (POMM)

Author Topic:   Possibility Order of Magnetude Metric (POMM)
RAZD
Member (Idle past 519 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004

 Message 1 of 5 (722198) 03-18-2014 7:10 AM

We see any number of arguments that "X" is possible when dealing with YEC arguments.

Example: speed of movement of tectonic plates -- to get from one continent just after the flood (so the animals can disperse to their current locations) the blocks must move at a pretty fantastic clip ... is it possible?

Technically anything is "possible" but a critical analysis says that it is not very possible ...

To get a handle on this I propose a metric to deal with this issue: The POMM, the "Possibility Order of Magnitude Metric."

Take the current known maximum rate (CKMR)-- any proposal that uses this rate is assigned a POMM value of 1 (highly possible)

Double that rate is assigned a POMM of 0.5 (fairly possible)

The rest is an exponential curve:

POMM = (1/2)r
where r = proposed rate / CKMR

So if one proposes that continents move at 1 foot per day when the CKMR is 1 inch per year the POMM would be (1/2)(12x365) = 3.080484244×10⁻¹³¹⁹

Edited by Admin, : Remove unnecessary and possibly confusing "^" characters.

we are limited in our ability to understand
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Rebel American Zen Deist
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 Replies to this message: Message 3 by Stile, posted 03-18-2014 9:24 AM RAZD has responded

RAZD
Member (Idle past 519 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004

 Message 5 of 5 (722231) 03-18-2014 10:46 PM Reply to: Message 3 by Stile03-18-2014 9:24 AM

 My first question was "why an exponential curve?" ...

Well, I saw it as including scientific tentativity, that the possibility could not be absolutely ruled out, never reach zero ... just get very close to zero fairly rapidly the more outrageous the claims.

 Taking that sort of position into account... I don't see this "additional rational exercise" being helpful in trying to show a creationist the error of their ways. It seems like the rebuttal would just be another "tree rings worked differently then!!!" kind of denial...

YEC 6,000 year old earth vs current known maximum age 4.55 billion years ... meaning an average apparent aging rate of

4.55x10^9/6x10^3 = 7.58x^5 years per year

so POMM = (1/2)^7.58x^5 = 1.8×10^-228181

Near zero yes?

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

 This message is a reply to: Message 3 by Stile, posted 03-18-2014 9:24 AM Stile has acknowledged this reply

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