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Author | Topic: Oh No, The New Awesome Primary Thread | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
quote: The next most recent was a CNN poll which gave Clinton a 49%-47% edge over Trump. I suspect both under-estimate the support Trump will snatch from black voters (the strong anti-immigration views of Trump combined with his social-conservative stances might earn him the highest GOP support among blacks since 1984) Here is the average of all the most recent polls (from the past month I think)
quote: Cruz does better on paper against Clinton, but he doesn't support deporting undocumented immigrants (that means he has less chance of getting significant black support imo)
quote: Trump does better against Sanders on paper, but I suspect Sanders will do better in the general against Trump (some recent polls suggest such) because Sanders can articulate the benefits of single-payer and the fact that Trump defended it's world-wide success in the famous August 2015 GOP debate.
quote:The Sanders verses Cruz is a mix of very old and recent polls. Cruz has gained strength lately against all his opponents (general and primary) quote: I think the evidence (not just the polls btw) clearly shows that the Republicans have the best shot of winning if Clinton is the nominee (I suspect she will ).They will maul her over the gun issue (Obama ran in 2008 and 2012 as pro-gun so that issue was almost 100% off the table). I predict that the Republicans take the white house, though low energy prices (at present) give the Democrats a chance to squeak by. (Democrats can't expect another hurricane over New York late in the race to neutralize the strong energy/environment advantage the GOP enjoys. The super-hot summer of 2012 also helped minimize the GOP advantage on that issue) EDIT- I found an article that backs up what I said about blacks and immigrationPolls Don’t Capture Blacks’ Intense Debate Over Immigration – IMDiversity here is a prediction of high at the pump gas prices in 2016Bloomberg - Are you a robot? Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
quote: I do think polls miss younger and poorer voters. Hillary verses Trump does seem like a scary set of alternatives. Hillary supported (verbally & diplomatically) a 2009 right-wing coup in Honduras against a democratically elected progressive. She had an unprecedented split with her President (Obama, of course) on this one, as he supported returning the democratically elected left-winger back to power. Sounds like a throwback to the Cold War when we overthrew democratically elected leader after democratically elected leader. Hillary has been in Washington for 24 years now, under 3 different 8 year administrations, and you know how many wars she opposed? From 1993-2001? Answer is 0. From 2001-2009? The answer is 0. 2009-2017? She wanted to do a lot more than an already war-active Obama (think Libya) would entertain. She opposed 0. She sounded downright crazy in her 2008 primary against Obama, criticizing him endlessly for even wanting to talk to Iran's leader ( "you want to sit down and have tea with a country we should be going to war with" or something). I remember watching her sit before the House Armed Services Committee in 2009 and crazy Mike Pence (now Governor of Indiana) was attacking Obama for being "weak on Iran". Hillary responded something like, "I made those same arguments with a passion for nearly a year, but he won and I lost". Thank God! Trump sounds more diplomatic at times than Hillary but other times he doesn't inspire confidence in his temperament. I have known lots of undocumented immigrants (including store owners) and I really hope he is joking about rounding them up. Your "armed" revolution part might be hyperbole, but he sure does promise to turn arms on 10 million plus residents (out of 320 million).
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
realclearpolitics.com
Clinton averages slightly better against Bushrealclearpolitics.com Clinton against Cruz (Cruz leads by 1.8%)realclearpolitics.com Clinton v Rubio (Rubio +3.0%)EvC Forum: Login Clinton is looking worse and worse. On balance, I would say this is the worst set of averages for her. Only a 2% average lead over Trump? !
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
The media kept making a big deal out of Obama's pastor Jeremiah Wright saying that the United States had been a racist country.
They never asked Palin to promise that she wasn't going to try to start wars in the Middle East based on her religion (a major problem in American society is religious Christian dispensationalists attempting to pass off the Middle eastern situation as "God doing it" one the one hand, while deliberately manipulating it on the other). "God and the Bible predicted the Middle Eastern wars between the exact nations that are fighting today" is the common claim. They don't seem to understand the difference between the (right-wing Christian) American supported British Empire drawing up borders and God "doing it". The people who draw the borders claim that we should all be shocked, like "wow , look at God's word coming true". Palin didn't have to answer any tough questions but Obama had to denounce his Pastor.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
With near 0% interest rates...
...at first. I wonder if interest rates will rise. Eventually there is going to be lots of defaults around the world. If there are a lot of defaults, among nations, then perhaps the U.S. Dollar might be seen as the best currency to invest in. Our interest rates might stay low but the economic crash could still make the debt jack up. And Jobs to be lost. And housing debts will be unpayable to many. And if houses loose value, then there goes a lot of economic drivers (borrowing against a mortgage to finance purchases to fuel the economy). I hope these "quantitative easing" programs keep on working. That means the markets don't consider it inflationary and trust that the government-purchased bonds (from the QE created money) will be (eventually)sold back to investors (liquidating the QE created money out of existence). It still seems like the lower interest (and mortgage) rates today (due to QE purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds) will be at the expense of (much)higher interest rates later when the government starts selling the trillions in bonds to private investors. Rates will have to be high to attract investors. And if we have an economic collapse along the way then current fiscal budgets (per year) will need to attract lots of bond purchases just to finance day to day operations. I would fear getting the job of President myself. The next Pres could get blamed for a lot that is only partially his/her fault.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
Iowa
Clinton gets about 43% Sanders gets 55% or 56% Then New HampshireSanders gets about 60% Clinton fails to get 40%
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
I think Bush II was a lot smarter than he pretended to be.
Hillary drives people crazy because she attacks the crap out of her opponents (often quite dishonestly, such as her attacks on single-payer), then complains at the smallest attack on her. The public simply can't stand her. Her negatives are like 55%. Amazing that she is even a contender with negatives like that. But she is a ferocious attacker of her opponents. I think her b.s. about Bernie "going after Obama's healthcare, "he will end ObamaCare", ... "I can't believe I have to defend ObamaCare in a Democratic primary", is going to blow up in her face. Only about 20% of voters under 45 only support her in Iowa. Her strong opposition to single-payer hasn't been so obvious until now. Now voters will have a clear choice, with Bernie in the race (and Clinton loudly aiming at him, by tearing down on his single-payer plan, via distortion)
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
quote: The only reason the rates are low is because the government has created about $3-4 trillion to purchase mortgage-backed securities and federal treasury debt. When the government needs to borrow money, it puts federal treasury IOUs on the market, and depending on the level of market interest (as in desire to purchase), then the government offers a certain interest rate. When the government makes purchases of its own debt, then there is no need to raise interest rates to snatch up additional bidders. The government was able to attract a certain amount of purchasers for bonds with super-low rates, but rates would have been higher if not for the quantitative easing. When it comes to the housing market, interest rates are very important. The government was buying mortgage-backed securities at low-interest rates and that enabled mortgages to be lower. The market would have demanded somewhat higher interest rates for the mortgage-backed bonds. But now we have to transition from the government purchasing $85 billion per month of debt, (first) incrementally down to no purchases. Then the big transition after that will be for the government to start selling the $3 trillion or so in bonds back to the market (that should have been purchasing it all along) WHICH WILL COMPETE FOR PURCHASERS against the newer mortgage-backed security and treasury bonds finding buyers. The rates will be driven up. Future housing mortgages and government deficits will come at a higher interest rate. Everybody knows this. Japan and Europe have QE programs of their own. They will collapse first. (If that happens then it might keep interest rates lower for Americans as the dollar will be seen as the least dangerous currency to invest in - Japan has a debt that is about 250% of GDP and with near 0% interest rates, so there is a real possibility of investors dumping the yen when QE is depressing rates artificially low for a country that might inflate its currency someday to pay the debt)
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2
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quote: ObamaCare charges a 2.5% individual income-tax (as the Supreme Court interpreted it) if a person doesn't pay at least 6% of their income on (very high deductible)insurance (or 12% of their income on lower-deductible insurance). Sanders charges a 2.2% tax for no-deductible insurance that a person can use anywhere (I am assuming that the "network" issues, typical of American healthcare, will be obsolete with single payer). Businesses have to pay a 6.7% tax per employee, which IMO isn't a good idea (I'd rather increase the marginal rates than to tax hiring), but I doubt it is more of a burden to businesses than their present health care spending. 6.7% +2.2% = 8.9%. Medicare is 1.45% + 1.45% =2.9% (but seniors are a smaller population group than workers, and Medicare taxes only fund payments to doctors or Part A. Part B, payment to hospitals, is not taxed at all - the government simply pays it's share without a revenue source. Medicare part C might not even exist, does anybody know of it? Medicare Part D costs the government over $75 billion per year, at least, and has no revenue source. It is the Bush prescription drug plan of 2003) Medicare would be something like 6% (I think) if the program was fully funded by the revenues to match the government expenditures. (The $600 billion+ annual military budget - in 2016 - is not and has never had to be funded by a revenue stream. Imagine how many people would want to pay the payroll tax for that? It is $100 billion per year higher than the Cold War yearly average when adjusted for inflation. Only 1 single year -during the Reagan administration - saw a military budget higher, when adjusted for inflation, than our present budget. USA Today, in 2010, reported that federal income tax revenue brought in 1126 billion in 2009. It also showed that $846 billion was spent on "military and security" for that year. That's over 76% of the much-obsessed over - think "Joe the Plumber" - Federal Income Tax spent on military and security related programs) At least recent health care proposals have been alongside a funding source (2003 Medicare Part D BushCare aside). ObamaCare policy changes (with revenue adjustments!) have run a net-surplus so far. Why isn't Hillary bitching about the 2.5% tax penalty for not purchasing (ObamaCare) insurance? And much higher $$ percentages for purchasing the plans? 2 reasons. 1)Because she fought hard in 2008 for such a tax (Obama actually opposed it then). 2) Because she would have to admit that Sanders would lower the CURRENT tax bill for most people (all middle class people). Hillary is a genuine liar and I hope we can move beyond her brand of politics. It is 2016. Enough of the crap.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
quote: Um, whats up? EvC Forum: I actually mentioned "crazy Mike Pence" on Jan 3 and 1 month ago.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
The exchange where Hillary "you want to have a cup of tea with Iran's leader" Clinton was agreeing with the approach of Mike Pence, but had to concede that the Pro-negotiation side won, and she must bend toward that position and conduct in her role as Secretary of State.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUGPxp4jamA Here is the quote from the close caption.
quote: Hopefully, she is more open to negotiation now. This election is offering some really terrible choices (if Pence on the ticket means Trump will bend towards him) on foreign policy. On the GOP side. I hope Trump's war positions will be the dominant trait. On the Dem side. I hope Obama's desire to negotiate has rubbed off on Hillary. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
Mike Pence’s loose grip on reality is almost as bad as Trump's | Grist
"call me crazy" He is a global warming is a hoax type. Access to this page has been denied last link is Bloomberg News Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
quote: Great golly, Mz. Molly.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
quote: This could very well become a campaign issue as time goes on. Interesting as voters haven't really engaged the issues much. Hillary is going after Trump (and Pence) on social issues, which wasn't what attracted Sanders such strong support in diverse states from Hawaii to Alaska. This could be a fundamentally important issue that draws lots of cross-over support.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
How Hillary Clinton Benefits from Mike Pence as Trump VP
Has to do with the agreement between crazy Mike and Hillary on war issues.
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