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Author | Topic: Oh No, The New Awesome Primary Thread | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NoNukes Inactive Member
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It is called the right wing base. The right wing base (like the left wing base) is too small to rely on for winning anything nationally. Republicans and Democrats must have their base, but generally that base is reliable if they show up. So what campaigns have become about is making sure the base shows up, and attracting as much of the center as possible. If Hillary loses, my guess is that her loss would come from a failure to get enough of those voters that Trump will never reach, to actually show up at the polls in November. I am not worried about any other scenario other than a third party candidate that fails to do anything other than strip a few percentage points away from Hillary so that she either loses, or fails to win by a large enough margin to prevent the legislature from simply picking a winner despite the popular vote. Right now, I would suggest that the election is Hilary's to win or lose. Moving to the left has risks with regards to folks in the middle, but moving right risks having folks stay home. I expect that Hillary will get plenty of competent advice about how to navigate. Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams
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Theodoric Member Posts: 9076 From: Northwest, WI, USA Joined: Member Rating: 3.7 |
But there are a large number of votes to the left of the Democratic base. Those are a good # of the people that tend not to vote regularly. The Democratic base are not the ultra liberals.
Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
But there are a large number of votes to the left of the Democratic base. Right, and there are a large number of votes in the middle that can vote Republican if a candidate moves to the left.
Those are a good # of the people that tend not to vote regularly Yes, some of them don't vote regularly, particularly in non-presidential elections, but just how large a group is that. And how many of those folks won't go to the polls just out of fear of a Trump planet. If you really know the answer to those questions, then you can make a conclusion about whether Hillary would be better served by moving to the left. Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1405 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
... Sanders is well on the way to giving us a Trump presidency. ... Sanders is not running independent, so no he won't be Nader II. You don't get to blame Bernie for people making a bad choice if he won't be on the ballot. The ones giving us a Trump presidency are the Clinton supporters, because of the two candidates, she does worse against Trump AND because (1) she will bring out hordes of republican voters who would have sat on their hands and not voted for Trump ... they will rally just to vote against her. (2) half or more of Bernie supporters are independents, who also have no love for warmonger Hillary, and they will never vote for her (saying they will either vote Jill Stein or write Bernie in) ... these are #NeverHillary people and even without Bernie in the primaries they would not have voted for her. You can't lose votes you never earned in the first place. The democrats will not win without the votes of independents. Independents determine the general elections, and have for years, and their numbers are growing as more and more people become disillusioned with the major parties, feeling ignored and unheard. Bernie won independents over 2 to 1 against Hillary. The DNC thinks fear tactics will bring voters to vote against Trump, but most of these people think she is just as bad -- the things he threatens to do are things she has done.
... Sanders is well on the way to giving us a Trump presidency. ... No, it is the DNC and the bubble democrat establishment that is on the way to giving us a Trump presidency by picking a loser candidate. She only has a slim chance of winning because Trump is such a bad candidate. The DNC is also well on their way to keeping all of Saunders platform positions off the platform, and going with namby-pampy milk-toast positions that don't/won't inspire a flea. You would have thought they would have learned from the loss in 2014 that running such a campaign is a disaster waiting to happen, but this is the "leadership" provided by Debbie Wasserman-Schultz because they should have been campaigning on $15/hr THEN (yes folks the strikes and protests are that old).
Eff Nader and Eff Sanders. yeah "Eff" anyone with vision for change, stay in your box, don't raise any ripples, be obedient servants ... Enjoyby our ability to understand Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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Dr Adequate Member (Idle past 285 days) Posts: 16113 Joined:
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He tweeted:
Just arrived in Scotland. Place is going wild over the vote. They took their country back, just like we will take America back. No games! Scotland voted to Remain by a whopping great 62%; every single area of Scotland voted Remain.
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1405 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
Actually, now that Hillary is the presumptive nominee, the latest polls show her pulling well ahead of Trump: Is that because she somehow miraculously became a better candidate or because Trump just became a worse candidate with his racist Judge and other comments? My feeling is the latter seeing as Trumps popularity numbers were tanking as a result. Have not seen any change in her favorability numbers.
Also, The Donald has not had a good few weeks. He has repeatedly put his foot in his mouth. Especially with the issue around Trump university and the judge who is of Latino descent. Exactly, which just mean she may squeak by, not that she is a better candidate than Bernie would be. Trump is likely her best chance at winning the election, because he is the only person with lower favorability numbrs than hers.
Granted, it is still early. But I think the narrowness of the gap between Trump and Clinton that existed earlier was due to Trump becoming the presumptive nominee while Bernie and Hillary were still in a contested race. And as yet the Clinton Machine Campaign has not done a single thing to win over Bernie supporters, and they have in fact spit in their faces -- that isn't unity, that is arrogance and overconfidence (something she has in great supply). AND he is not officially out of the race as yet -- so that doesn't really make the race over -- he is still holding out for the convention, when the super-delegates actually vote. If they actually count all the actual votes in California they may find that Bernie won the state. Enjoyby our ability to understand Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1405 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
The primary race is over. Bernie himself will probably tell you the same thing in a few days. If "a few days" means waiting until the convention. Right now he is working hard to expand the political revolution, getting people to run for office in local, state and national levels -- at last notice upwards of 20,000 people have signed up to be part of the REvolution. The primary is just one part of the overall movement.
So you are postulating a level of error that will significantly cut into that 3 million plus vote lead? Or are we talking about something reasonable well considered as marginal? No, I am saying that the consistent hacking of voting machines in every state, the purging of (new young) voters in every state, and the suppression of (new young) voting in every state was all managed by the DNC + Clinton Machine to steal the election. Enjoyby our ability to understand Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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ringo Member (Idle past 412 days) Posts: 20940 From: frozen wasteland Joined: |
Theodoric writes:
So you're claiming that nobody shifted a little farther to the right because of Bernie Sanders? Even if you took a poll, you can't speak for everybody.
The right and trump already had that population. It is called the right wing base.
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Tanypteryx Member Posts: 4344 From: Oregon, USA Joined: Member Rating: 5.9 |
No, I am saying that the consistent hacking of voting machines in every state, the purging of (new young) voters in every state, and the suppression of (new young) voting in every state was all managed by the DNC + Clinton Machine to steal the election. I have to protest your accusation. There were none of those things happening in Oregon. We have vote by mail, no voting machines to hack in Oregon. There are no long lines of people waiting to vote in Oregon. Young voters are automatically registered to vote when they get a driver's license in Oregon. The question is why the rest of the states in the nation continue to allow corruption of the most basic aspect of our system, the vote? And when the fuck are we as a nation going to dump the electoral system of our presidential election that make our votes in Oregon count less than votes in some other states? The time is long passed to dump the Electoral College and to use a pure vote count to choose a president. What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy
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coffee_addict Member (Idle past 477 days) Posts: 3645 From: Indianapolis, IN Joined: |
Nader's vision for change gave us 8 years of GWB, 2 decade long wars, thousands of American lives lost, and several steps backward on the human rights front.
If you say the word "gullible" slowly, it sounds like oranges. Go ahead and try it.
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xongsmith Member Posts: 2578 From: massachusetts US Joined: Member Rating: 6.8
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Lammy writes:
Nader's vision for change gave us 8 years of GWB, 2 decade long wars, thousands of American lives lost, and several steps backward on the human rights front. Actually it has been shown that Nader was not the one who cost Gore the election. Truth be told: it was Gore himself, with his lousy campaigning.- xongsmith, 5.7d
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xongsmith Member Posts: 2578 From: massachusetts US Joined: Member Rating: 6.8 |
Tanypteryx writes:
There were none of those things happening in Oregon. We have vote by mail, no voting machines to hack in Oregon. There are no long lines of people waiting to vote in Oregon. Young voters are automatically registered to vote when they get a driver's license in Oregon. from Results of the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries - Wikipedia: Oregon[68][69][70] 61 13 74 Closed primaryClinton _ _ _ _ _ Sanders _ _ _ _ _ Clinton delegates Sanders delegates 269,846 (42.1%) 360,829 (56.2%) _ 25 7 32 _ _ _ _ _ 36 3 39 So Bernie WON Oregon. So this doesn't address the apparent widespread fraud the DNC and Hillary camp is accused of in the other states. Yes, we should all move this way (mail), and what they do in Washington State.Not sure bout the driver's license thing - seems to discriminate against the abject poor. As for Electoral College, to eliminate that would require a Constitutional Amendment and there is NO WAY 3/4 of the states will ratify that. The low population states will never release their grip on their advantage in telling Washing, D.C., a thing or 2. You'll have to pry it out of their cold dead fingers. Perhaps a way to soften the blow is to INCREASE the number of Representatives each state has, as the number is NOT written in the Constitution. They only requirement is that they be in proportion to the state's population. If all the Reps were to be doubled (along with removing gerrymandering, of course), that will have the effect of halving the Electoral College weight of the 2 Senators. Edited by xongsmith, : delete trailing 033 on the wiki linequote- xongsmith, 5.7d
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Tanypteryx Member Posts: 4344 From: Oregon, USA Joined: Member Rating: 5.9
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So Bernie WON Oregon. So this doesn't address the apparent widespread fraud the DNC and Hillary camp is accused of in the other states. No, but I wasn't trying to address it. I was just objecting to including Oregon in with the rest.
Not sure bout the driver's license thing - seems to discriminate against the abject poor. I don't see how. They can still register to vote. The point is, there are no barriers to registration and voting like we see in Republican controlled states.
As for Electoral College, to eliminate that would require a Constitutional Amendment and there is NO WAY 3/4 of the states will ratify that. The low population states will never release their grip on their advantage in telling Washing, D.C., a thing or 2. You'll have to pry it out of their cold dead fingers. I agree, but I will continue to rant about the total stupidity of it as long as I live. It is too bad we cannot vote on national initiative petitions like we do in states. The first one I would like to vote for is no pension for the legislative branch and no vacations, and we the people directly vote for their pay. Can you imagine if being a member of the House of Representative or Senate was as despised as much as jury duty?What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1405 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
I have to protest your accusation. ... We have vote by mail, no voting machines to hack in Oregon. There are no long lines of people waiting to vote in Oregon. Young voters are automatically registered to vote when they get a driver's license in Oregon. Oregon is a model state for voter registration and the use of mail in ballots (paper ballots that can be recounted).
There were none of those things happening in Oregon. ... Do you know how the ballots were counted? One of the things California has shown us is that hand counted ballots do not tally with the machine counted ballots ... indicating that the counting machines were hacked and election fraud was committed. Unless you have the ballots hand counted you cannot claim an honest tally by the machines.
There were none of those things happening in Oregon. ... Oregon is a closed primary -- how many people couldn't vote because they were not on the register as democrat? How many never to be counted provisional ballots were issued? The results for Washington were markedly different. Enjoyby our ability to understand Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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Theodoric Member Posts: 9076 From: Northwest, WI, USA Joined: Member Rating: 3.7 |
So resorting to strawman to strengthen your argument. I never made such a claim. To think anyone would, would be asinine.
Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.
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