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Author Topic:   Climate Change Denier comes in from the cold: SCIENCE!!!
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 5984
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 856 of 881 (887548)
08-09-2021 3:19 PM
Reply to: Message 855 by anglagard
08-09-2021 2:00 PM


Re: In the End, Death s the Cure
I've read some of those studies. They propose there is a chain of tipping points coming up in the next 100 years and if we, as good little humans can, hit every fricken one of them then some greenhouse cycles would go into autopilot regardless of how many humans aren't around any more.

Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
 Message 857 by Pollux, posted 08-09-2021 6:27 PM AZPaul3 has responded

  
Pollux
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Posts: 274
Joined: 11-13-2011


(1)
Message 857 of 881 (887557)
08-09-2021 6:27 PM
Reply to: Message 856 by AZPaul3
08-09-2021 3:19 PM


Re: In the End, Death s the Cure
In the book "Our Final Warning" Mark Lynas goes through the effects of 1,2,3,4,5,&6 deg C of warming on the planet. He had an earlier book about 14 years ago, and some things he had in 4 deg then he has moved to 2 in this book so quickly things are moving.
It was written before Australia's disastrous fires and he expected them at 3 deg.

Our Australian politicians do not seem to care that even at 1.5 most of the Great Barrier Reef is gone, and at 2 virtually total is. Australia itself is already at 1.4.

And whatever level we possibly stabilise the temperature, ice cap
melting and sea level rise for centuries are locked in.
We are truly stuffed. I am at the tail end of my life but l feel for the future.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 856 by AZPaul3, posted 08-09-2021 3:19 PM AZPaul3 has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 858 by AZPaul3, posted 08-09-2021 7:50 PM Pollux has not yet responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 5984
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 858 of 881 (887561)
08-09-2021 7:50 PM
Reply to: Message 857 by Pollux
08-09-2021 6:27 PM


Re: In the End, Death s the Cure
Global warming is the real-life trolley problem.

Down one line a lot of people die now and again then a whole lot further down the track the trolley bursts into flames and everybody on the planet dies.

Down the other line the trolley bursts into flames and everybody on the planet dies but it happens earlier.

Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

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Percy
Member
Posts: 20219
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 859 of 881 (887567)
08-10-2021 11:58 AM


My Reaction to Dire Predictions
The effects of climate change will continue on for decades and decades because not enough of the world will rein in their production of green house gases, but I don't see a collapse of world civilization nor even of the world economy. Some regions will suffer, some will thrive, and along the way we'll adapt. We will eventually gain control of our green house gases, but by no means by 2050.

Ironically the world's land area is increasing right now, but not for good reasons, e.g., Lake Mead, the Aral Sea, etc.

--Percy


Replies to this message:
 Message 861 by AZPaul3, posted 08-12-2021 6:57 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
dwise1
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Posts: 4702
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.1


(2)
Message 860 of 881 (887570)
08-10-2021 1:22 PM


Climate Change on The Newsroom
From the HBO series, The Newsroom (2012-2014), here is the interview with an EPA official:

Basically, "that would have been great to have done 20, even 10, years ago. Now it's too late." That aired in 2014.

 
ABE:
One of the items he says we have to look forward to is mass migrations. Like the beginnings of starvation from crop failures in Central America which is part of what's driving their migration northwards to our southern border. This is part of the reason for our "immigration problem" and it's only going to get worse.

 
In 1989 James Burke, BBC science correspondent who also did the PBS series "Connections" and "The Day the Universe Changed", did a series, "After the Warming" which looked at the effects of global warming (YouTube search page: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=james+burke+... ).

The format is that he is reporting from the future that we are creating and describing how everything went down the tubes. He keeps hinting at their still awaiting data from the Atlantic. As we were all taught in elementary school (or a bit later), the Gulf Stream is a current of warm water running close to the surface which provides Europe with a temperate climate. What we were not taught is that as that warm water cools, it descends into the depths and then flows southwards to the Caribbean where it gets warmed and flows northwards again.

It is a circuit, like where the electrons from the battery flows out to the devices, but they all have to be connected to a common return path (to chassis ground in a car) in order to complete the circuit and allow the electrons to flow. Or the central forced-air heating in your house which blows heated air out the vents throughout your house, but there still has to be that return vent (which is where you replace the filter periodically) taking in the cooler air to be heated and forced out the vents. If that circuit is not completed, then then the flow stops.

In the Atlantic, that's referred to as a "conveyor system". Without that cold deep water returning south, you no longer have a Gulf Stream keeping Europe temperate. Now, that conveyor system depends on the sea water being a certain salinity, that it be salty enough. As the ice cap of Greenland melts, it dumps more and more fresh water into the northern seas, reducing the water's salinity. That is what will lead to the breakdown of that conveyor system which drives the Gulf Stream.

In "After the Warming", they have just discovered that that conveyor system has stopped.

Edited by dwise1, : ABE (not the Scottish ABE: "Anybody But England")


  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 5984
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.6


(1)
Message 861 of 881 (887596)
08-12-2021 6:57 PM
Reply to: Message 859 by Percy
08-10-2021 11:58 AM


Re: My Reaction to Dire Predictions
The effects of climate change will continue on for decades and decades because not enough of the world will rein in their production of green house gases ...

No. The effects of anthropomorphic climate change, even if all humanity dropped dead today, will continue to ravage this world, not for decades but for centuries, for millennia.

quote:
B.5 Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia, especially changes in the ocean, ice sheets and global sea level.

B.5.1 Based on multiple lines of evidence, upper ocean stratification (virtually
certain), ocean acidification (virtually certain) and ocean deoxygenation (high confidence) will continue to increase in the 21st century, at rates dependent on future emissions. Changes are irreversible on centennial to millennial time scales in global ocean temperature (very high confidence), deep ocean acidification (very
high confidence) and deoxygenation (medium confidence).
{4.3, 4.5, 4.7, 5.3, 9.2, TS.2.4} (Figure SPM.8)


quote:
C.2 With further global warming, every region is projected to increasingly experience concurrent and multiple changes in climatic impact-drivers.

C.2.2 At 1.5°C global warming, heavy precipitation and associated flooding are projected to intensify and be more frequent in most regions in Africa and Asia (high confidence), North America (medium to high confidence) 40 and Europe (medium confidence). Also, more frequent and/or severe agricultural and
ecological droughts are projected in a few regions in all continents except Asia compared to 1850–1900 (medium confidence) ...


With these two projections and what we already see happening in former breadbasket regions like east Africa, western China, all over the Middle East, I am majorly concerned.

The drought, heat, fire, flood and on and on, will only get worse over these coming decades regardless of what we do. Major food disruptions are already happening and will only get worse. We have seen before in history the social consequences that will occur. We know how societies react to starvation and war.

We will eventually gain control of our green house gases, but by no means by 2050.

No. We won't. Too many sacred oxes to gore. We have seen how some of the power political elites ignored the lives in the pandemic and manipulated resources for profit. They don't care.

Now imagine the opponent having all the money in the world (literally) and an iron grasp on all the major political levers in every nation in the world (literally). You will not challenge their power. Not successfully. You will not decrease their revenues or their wealth. You haven't the political power nor the political will.

Rebellion will have to happen. War will have to happen.

Some regions will suffer, some will thrive, and along the way we'll adapt.

Even in the USA I fear the prospect of a world so disrupted and broken the demagogues will have the fodder they need to make hell.

The collapse of civilization that you do not see coming will come when nuclear armed War Lords are in control of ANYwhere.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 859 by Percy, posted 08-10-2021 11:58 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
 Message 862 by Phat, posted 08-12-2021 7:04 PM AZPaul3 has responded

  
Phat
Inactive Member


Message 862 of 881 (887597)
08-12-2021 7:04 PM
Reply to: Message 861 by AZPaul3
08-12-2021 6:57 PM


Re: My Reaction to Dire Predictions
AZPaul3 writes:

The drought, heat, fire, flood and on and on, will only get worse over these coming decades regardless of what we do. Major food disruptions are already happening and will only get worse. We have seen before in history the social consequences that will occur. We know how societies react to starvation and war.(...)Now imagine the opponent having all the money in the world (literally) and an iron grasp on all the major political levers in every nation in the world (literally). You will not challenge their power. Not successfully. You will not decrease their revenues or their wealth. You haven't the political power nor the political will.

Rebellion will have to happen. War will have to happen.

It's ironic how you refuse to believe in Jesus coming back. If your scenarios play out, even you will be praying for His return. When humans are under pressure and their lifestyles are threatened...as well as the livelihood of their children...then all sorts of demons will manifest. Survival knows no empathy.

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.”
- Criss Jami, Killo

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 861 by AZPaul3, posted 08-12-2021 6:57 PM AZPaul3 has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 863 by AZPaul3, posted 08-12-2021 7:39 PM Phat has acknowledged this reply
 Message 864 by ringo, posted 08-13-2021 11:54 AM Phat has not yet responded
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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 5984
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.6


(1)
Message 863 of 881 (887598)
08-12-2021 7:39 PM
Reply to: Message 862 by Phat
08-12-2021 7:04 PM


Re: My Reaction to Dire Predictions
Oh, there is no doubt in my mind that as we lose more and more of our stability and social cohesion the stupid will come pouring forth.

You guys really do thrive on fear, don't you.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 862 by Phat, posted 08-12-2021 7:04 PM Phat has acknowledged this reply

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19226
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 3.7


(2)
Message 864 of 881 (887603)
08-13-2021 11:54 AM
Reply to: Message 862 by Phat
08-12-2021 7:04 PM


Re: My Reaction to Dire Predictions
Phat writes:

When humans are under pressure and their lifestyles are threatened...as well as the livelihood of their children...then all sorts of demons will manifest.


Religion is one of those demons.

Phat writes:

Survival knows no empathy.


It really does, though. Humans are social animals, descended from social animals for millions of years. We have empathy because it works.

"I've been to Moose Jaw, now I can die." -- John Wing

This message is a reply to:
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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 5984
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 865 of 881 (887615)
08-14-2021 4:36 PM


Hot Enough For You?
No comment. I'll just drop this here to rub it in.

July 2021 was hottest month on record.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

Replies to this message:
 Message 866 by anglagard, posted 08-15-2021 11:46 AM AZPaul3 has responded

  
anglagard
Member
Posts: 2329
From: Socorro, New Mexico USA
Joined: 03-18-2006
Member Rating: 6.7


Message 866 of 881 (887618)
08-15-2021 11:46 AM
Reply to: Message 865 by AZPaul3
08-14-2021 4:36 PM


Re: Hot Enough For You?
AZPaul3 writes:

o comment. I'll just drop this here to rub it in.

July 2021 was hottest month on record.

Not here. it just rains and the temp hangs around the 80s.

Usually it is dry as a desert and around 100.

The Northwest took away our summer. Bad move, we are used to it, they are not.


The problem with knowing everything is learning nothing.

If you don't know what you're doing, find someone who does, and do what they do.

Republican = death


This message is a reply to:
 Message 865 by AZPaul3, posted 08-14-2021 4:36 PM AZPaul3 has responded

Replies to this message:
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anglagard
Member
Posts: 2329
From: Socorro, New Mexico USA
Joined: 03-18-2006
Member Rating: 6.7


(5)
Message 867 of 881 (887619)
08-15-2021 12:10 PM
Reply to: Message 862 by Phat
08-12-2021 7:04 PM


A Life Without Empathy
Phat writes:

Survival knows no empathy.

Unless you are a Mammal, or a bird. Empathy is a primary survival trait of Humans and Mammals, especially Primates. Without empathy, there likely would be no Primates. There are even countless examples of cross-species empathy, such as a leopard befriending a young gazelle.

Your dismissal of empathy says a lot about you. This is why you hate the Jesus of the book, because everything he said was manly about empathy. You won't find solace for your beliefs in any other major religion likewise. It also shows why you believe in right-wing hate and lies, life is a zero-sum game. For every winner someone must lose.

This is Galtonism and objectivism.

Have you considered becoming a Mammal? It means reason over emotion unlike reptiles.

Te alternative is to be hounded by demons of your own creation, ever fearful and resentful.


The problem with knowing everything is learning nothing.

If you don't know what you're doing, find someone who does, and do what they do.

Republican = death


This message is a reply to:
 Message 862 by Phat, posted 08-12-2021 7:04 PM Phat has not yet responded

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 5789
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 4.7


Message 868 of 881 (887620)
08-15-2021 12:58 PM
Reply to: Message 866 by anglagard
08-15-2021 11:46 AM


Re: Hot Enough For You?
Not here. it just rains and the temp hangs around the 80s.

Usually it is dry as a desert and around 100.

Yes, it is similar here in the Chicago suburbs. It has been an unusually mild summer. It seems that the pacific northwest has sucked up all of our usual summer heat.


Fundamentalism - the anti-American, anti-Christian branch of American Christianity

This message is a reply to:
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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 5984
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 869 of 881 (887621)
08-15-2021 1:15 PM
Reply to: Message 866 by anglagard
08-15-2021 11:46 AM


Re: Hot Enough For You?
The Northwest took away our summer. Bad move, we are used to it, they are not.

Enjoy the low temperatures. Not the recent ones but the usual summer 100s. You have less than 180 years to revel in such a moderate balmy breeze, maybe.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
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Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 2571
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 5.5


(2)
Message 870 of 881 (887628)
08-15-2021 9:16 PM
Reply to: Message 866 by anglagard
08-15-2021 11:46 AM


Re: Hot Enough For You?
The Northwest took away our summer. Bad move, we are used to it, they are not.

The high temps here have been no fun. We've broken lots of records, but that happens quite often in many places every day. We have lots of wildfire smoke here in the Willamette Valley since mid week, but nothing like last summer, when towns were burning up only a few miles from here.

I don't have AC in my lab, so I cool it down with fans in the morning, close it up and work until about 3:00 or 85F whichever comes 1st and then go home. I usually leave image files processing on the computer over night so I can stay busy, collecting subjects and shooting.

Many species of dragonflies have shortened flight seasons this year because of the heat. Lots of aquatic habitat has disappeared with the drought and heat.

I think we are really and truly fucked!


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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