And I'll bet his "probability calculation" treats them as single entities.
Hi RAZD - I've been trying to follow this from the perspective of a non-mathematician.
Have I got this right - are you saying that Dubreuil is defining as a qualifying event a wide range of possible scenarios (ie you hit the side of the barn somewhere), but then calculates the probability of the specific scenario that does occur (ie the probability that you would hit the specific bullet hole you actually hit) ? In other words, a very convoluted version of the sharpshooter fallacy ?
Could there be any greater conceit, than for someone to believe that the universe has to be simple enough for them to be able to understand it ?