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Author Topic:   Self-Driving Cars
Hyroglyphx
Member
Posts: 5878
From: Austin, TX
Joined: 05-03-2006
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 54 of 142 (780740)
03-20-2016 12:43 AM
Reply to: Message 52 by Percy
03-19-2016 12:58 PM


Re: How Safe Are Autonomous Vehicles?
The self-driving car still has a long way to go, I think. And even assuming their numbers of at-fault crashes reduces to almost nil, there still leaves the factor of other non-driverless cars that will still be around and that you still have to factor in to. The introduction of driverless cars would be as slow, if not slower, than the introduction of electric cars. It's been close to two decades and the combustion engine still outpaces the electric motor by at least 30:1, and that's probably a generous ratio. This means that it could take 2 to 4 decades to get to the point where virtually all the vehicles on the road are driverless.

So lets then suppose that Google, Tesla, Apple, or whomever works out the kinks enough to launch. Okay, so your car might not crash in to another vehicle, but what about other motorists crashing in to you or pedestrians that make stupid decisions? I doubt a driverless vehicle has the capacity to make extreme evasive maneuvers to avoid something like a deer darting out in the road at night as effectively as a human brain can process and react at this point in time.

It seems that just stopping the vehicle in many instances is simply not good enough because of inertia. Sometimes stomping on the brake while simultaneously swerving might be in order to narrowly avoid a collision, and from everything I've seen of the technology thus far, Google doesn't have an answer for it... yet.

The point is, how comfortable will people really be with just letting the car drive when at least 50% of driving is constantly scanning for threats and responding to those threats?


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 52 by Percy, posted 03-19-2016 12:58 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
 Message 55 by Straggler, posted 03-20-2016 3:52 AM Hyroglyphx has responded
 Message 56 by AZPaul3, posted 03-20-2016 5:28 AM Hyroglyphx has responded
 Message 64 by ringo, posted 03-20-2016 2:38 PM Hyroglyphx has not yet responded

  
Hyroglyphx
Member
Posts: 5878
From: Austin, TX
Joined: 05-03-2006
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 57 of 142 (780752)
03-20-2016 5:41 AM
Reply to: Message 55 by Straggler
03-20-2016 3:52 AM


Re: How Safe Are Autonomous Vehicles?
I was under the impression that driverless cars are to be tested on the streets of London really quite soon.

They've already been on San Francisco roadways for some time now and developers now feel like the car is safe enough to test in multiple cities with high-traffic.

My issue is whether or not I would feel comfortable sitting in the passenger seat of one on a major thoroughfare at this point. I don't think that I would be, and not because I think the technology doesn't work, but because it cannot account for other driver's reckless behaviors.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 55 by Straggler, posted 03-20-2016 3:52 AM Straggler has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 59 by Straggler, posted 03-20-2016 6:42 AM Hyroglyphx has responded

  
Hyroglyphx
Member
Posts: 5878
From: Austin, TX
Joined: 05-03-2006
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 58 of 142 (780753)
03-20-2016 5:51 AM
Reply to: Message 56 by AZPaul3
03-20-2016 5:28 AM


Re: How Safe Are Autonomous Vehicles?
I see the self-driving car as having reaction times and reaction protocols much faster and safer than any human could follow. The self-driving car is constantly scanning for potential threats in a 360 pattern while the "driver" is distracted with pushing buttons trying to find the right tune on their 8-track tape deck. Yes, the return of the 8-track: Abba, Wayne Newton, Air Supply. The car would see the deer tracking in from the left-ahead long before while you're eyes are looking to the right at the center console and would anticipate evasive maneuvers long before you found "Danke Schoen."

You make a good point. Perhaps in the sense of the deer coming out of the darkness, I suppose because it is using radar that it would pick up the object long before you were able to see it. But I don't know if it has the ability to swerve quickly. Here's one scenario that I would be astonished that it could be react faster than a human (although admittedly this scenario would be exceedingly rare, I only mention it to point out some of the potential flaws).

Supposing you were behind a truck carrying cargo and all of a sudden the straps give way and something like large drainage pipes fall of the vehicle... Would the sensor be able to pick that up better or faster than a human? A human can reason that the objects are about to fall before they are actually falling. The sensor only sees what it is actually happening and cannot anticipate. Those precious fractions of a second might mean life or death.

I have no doubt that the technology will eventually be superior to that of flawed, distracted humans... but I have doubts that it is all that sophisticated at this point and doubt even more that I could comfortably give up all the control over the vehicle for quite some time.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 56 by AZPaul3, posted 03-20-2016 5:28 AM AZPaul3 has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 61 by AZPaul3, posted 03-20-2016 8:10 AM Hyroglyphx has not yet responded

  
Hyroglyphx
Member
Posts: 5878
From: Austin, TX
Joined: 05-03-2006
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 60 of 142 (780755)
03-20-2016 6:58 AM
Reply to: Message 59 by Straggler
03-20-2016 6:42 AM


Re: How Safe Are Autonomous Vehicles?
An obvious answer to reckless drivers might be to make all cars driverless..... Individual vehicles operating as units in a wider single over-arching system. But that is probably some way off.

I have no doubt that they will one day be far more effective than even the most cautious and observant driver. I just don't know how long it will take to get to that point. Who knows, we may move beyond cars before they become very popular. The CEO of Tesla is very serious about patenting a "hyperloop" which (theoretically) can transport people from Dallas to Austin (about a 3 hour drive by auto) in under 15 minutes without the G-force ripping the bodies to pieces.

But back to the driverless cars, I wonder about the implications to insurance companies. If these devices become popular and prove effective, it would cut down on accidents which is good for them in the sense that they don't have to pay out as many insurance claims. But if it is extremely effective, many people may stop purchasing auto insurance at all which would be disastrous for them. I would be curious to sit in on a meeting at a large auto insurance company meeting to hear what they think are discussing concerning driverless cars. Surely they are paying close attention to the progress.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 59 by Straggler, posted 03-20-2016 6:42 AM Straggler has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 63 by Straggler, posted 03-20-2016 9:54 AM Hyroglyphx has not yet responded

  
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