Register | Sign In


Understanding through Discussion


EvC Forum active members: 57 (9175 total)
1 online now:
Newest Member: sirs
Post Volume: Total: 917,651 Year: 4,908/9,624 Month: 256/427 Week: 2/64 Day: 2/8 Hour: 0/0


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   Yes, The Real The New Awesome Primary Thread
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8593
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 406 of 478 (783210)
05-04-2016 10:46 AM
Reply to: Message 404 by Pressie
05-04-2016 8:09 AM


Up for Three?
Maybe it's time to split the GOP and then have a three party system in the US.
I don’t know how that would work. The two major parties are pretty much institutionalized in this country based on state election laws. They have the advantage in everything from voter registration to financing to primary election support that third parties do not have (a third party has to show they received some X% of the popular vote in that state in the last election to qualify for these state-level election benefits). The state power and congressional power are in the two major parties and I don’t think the Tea Party would easily give up that cover.
It would be good if the Tea Party struck out on its own because then they could flitter away into ineffectiveness just like all the other third parties. Too bad, really. As long as it wasn’t something as radical-right as the Tea Party the American body politic could use a strong third party in the system.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 404 by Pressie, posted 05-04-2016 8:09 AM Pressie has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8593
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 407 of 478 (783211)
05-04-2016 10:54 AM
Reply to: Message 405 by Diomedes
05-04-2016 9:51 AM


My money's on 'This is the End' by The Doors.
I was thinking more along the lines of Gracie Slick's "White Rabbit". It goes better with Trump trying to talk about policy. Scatter-brained and doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Remember what the Dormouse said.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 405 by Diomedes, posted 05-04-2016 9:51 AM Diomedes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 408 by Diomedes, posted 05-04-2016 12:30 PM AZPaul3 has seen this message but not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 996
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 408 of 478 (783223)
05-04-2016 12:30 PM
Reply to: Message 407 by AZPaul3
05-04-2016 10:54 AM


And then there was one....
John Kasich has just dopped out as well.
John Kasich drops out of presidential race | CNN Politics
I wonder just how much egg is on the face of establishment Republicans right now. For all their talk about how Trump was not viable. For all their efforts, including millions of dollars spent on more mainstream Republican candidates like Jeb or Rubio. To now be looking at the prospect of a Trump candidate just has to be almost surreal.
So what's next for Republicans? Accept what has happened and get behind their candidate knowing full well he will lose in November? Take a tactical approach and try to save the Senate? Time will tell.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 407 by AZPaul3, posted 05-04-2016 10:54 AM AZPaul3 has seen this message but not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


(3)
Message 409 of 478 (783229)
05-04-2016 1:14 PM
Reply to: Message 403 by Pressie
05-04-2016 7:34 AM


Maybe Hillary can convince Sanders to be her running mate
I think there are plenty of opportunities for Hilary to pick out a helpful running mate. In fact, if Bernie cannot win, I would prefer to see Bernie end up with a cabinet position from which he can actually contribute than to have him stuck in limbo land. Most vice presidents seem to spend their time in office trying to find a useful hobby. Many if not most vps end up having less impact than the first lady.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King
If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams

This message is a reply to:
 Message 403 by Pressie, posted 05-04-2016 7:34 AM Pressie has not replied

  
kjsimons
Member
Posts: 825
From: Orlando,FL
Joined: 06-17-2003


(3)
Message 410 of 478 (783230)
05-04-2016 1:25 PM
Reply to: Message 405 by Diomedes
05-04-2016 9:51 AM


Diomedes writes:
I wonder what their campaign song choice might be. My money's on 'This is the End' by The Doors.
Perhaps his campaign slogan should be "Apocalypse Now!" ? The Evangelicals should be on board with that.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 405 by Diomedes, posted 05-04-2016 9:51 AM Diomedes has not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 411 of 478 (783231)
05-04-2016 1:26 PM
Reply to: Message 400 by AZPaul3
05-04-2016 1:29 AM


Re: Cruz Is Out
After Hillary's first term it will be interesting to see if the Republicans have learned anything from this disaster.
What did they learn from 8 years of Obama hating? I remember the supposed debriefing sessions after Obama's re-election that uncovered tons of ways for the GOP to do better. Eventually they concluded that the best strategy was to double down on the losing tactics lest they become RINOs. No compromising with democrats, fight Obama at every turn, and continue to dismiss blacks and Hispanics in an attempt to hold the same base that has been losing elections while getting smaller for a decade. Well that base seems to like Trump and Cruz, primarily because the leaders in the GOP don't like them.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King
If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams

This message is a reply to:
 Message 400 by AZPaul3, posted 05-04-2016 1:29 AM AZPaul3 has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 413 by 1.61803, posted 05-04-2016 1:39 PM NoNukes has seen this message but not replied
 Message 415 by Diomedes, posted 05-04-2016 2:12 PM NoNukes has seen this message but not replied

  
jar
Member
Posts: 34064
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 3.8


(2)
Message 412 of 478 (783233)
05-04-2016 1:37 PM


Remember the future really still is the future.
We need to remember that the election is still in the future. Dewey Wins! I have more than once lost a bet on a sure thing.

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

  
1.61803
Member (Idle past 1591 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


(1)
Message 413 of 478 (783234)
05-04-2016 1:39 PM
Reply to: Message 411 by NoNukes
05-04-2016 1:26 PM


Re: Cruz Is Out
Hi Nonukes,
Nonukes writes:
...in an attempt to hold the same base that has been losing elections while getting smaller for a decade.
A quick preview of who will not be voting for Trump.
Hispanics
Catholics
women
African Americans
Millennials
Moderates
Who will vote for Trump:
Off the Reservation Tea Party
Republican wingnuts
Bubba
He has no choice but to broaden his appeal to other voters or face losing. Hillary will roast him in the debates without even firing a neuron.
Trump will now emerge from his cocoon metamorphosis as
the new Tolerant Fair Sensitive Trump v2.0
Kinda like Romney bot v2.0 after the primaries last election cycle
where he pretty much abandoned every bit of base pandering to broaden his appeal.
Edited by 1.61803, : changed not for no.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

This message is a reply to:
 Message 411 by NoNukes, posted 05-04-2016 1:26 PM NoNukes has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 418 by nwr, posted 05-04-2016 6:27 PM 1.61803 has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


(2)
Message 414 of 478 (783235)
05-04-2016 2:00 PM
Reply to: Message 401 by Big_Al35
05-04-2016 6:13 AM


Despite Trump getting the highest voting percentages ever recorded he still doesn't even have as many votes as George W Bush. Nor is he sure to reach the 1237 target. Why is that? Ahhh yes voterless victories for Cruz.
Perhaps those alternative news sources are a bit slow today.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King
If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams

This message is a reply to:
 Message 401 by Big_Al35, posted 05-04-2016 6:13 AM Big_Al35 has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 996
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(4)
Message 415 of 478 (783236)
05-04-2016 2:12 PM
Reply to: Message 411 by NoNukes
05-04-2016 1:26 PM


Re: Cruz Is Out
I remember the supposed debriefing sessions after Obama's re-election that uncovered tons of ways for the GOP to do better. Eventually they concluded that the best strategy was to double down on the losing tactics lest they become RINOs. No compromising with democrats, fight Obama at every turn, and continue to dismiss blacks and Hispanics in an attempt to hold the same base that has been losing elections while getting smaller for a decade.
I believed they actually called it an 'autopsy'. Which may be appropriate since Trump is most likely to cause the Zombie Apocalypse.
I think the main issue in the Republican party is their predilection towards living in a bubble that was created and maintained by the various right-wing talk shows, radio personalities and news networks like Fox. I have relatives who are staunch Republicans and I am sometimes flabbergasted by their sheer lack of knowledge or outright ignorance regarding facts in our country.
The right-wing machine became so hell bent on ousting Obama that they basically fueled a situation telling people how terrible things are regardless of what the facts actually stated. The economy is horrible. Our enemies are at our doorstep. Socialism is everywhere. Etc, etc.
To draw an analogy, I personally think George W. Bush was the worst president in modern history and likely in the top five of the worst ever. Now I don't pull this viewpoint out of thin air. I quantify it with facts, like so:
- 9/11 happened on his watch and was linked to his inability to read CIA reports on threats to our nation
- The Iraq war was completely unjustified and predicated under the notion that WMDs existed, despite all evidence to the contrary
- The surplus we enjoyed that was paying down our debt turned into a massive deficit and debt as a result of his tax cuts that favored the wealthy at the expense of the middle class
- He oversaw the largest expansion of government increase since Reagan despite his label as a conservative; all while seeing the smallest private sector job growth in decades
- The cronyism in his office directly led to the totally inadequate response to Hurricane Katrina and likely contributed to the deaths of American citizens
- His complete mis-handling of the economy took us to the brink of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression; and he solved that by bailing out the very people who helped cause it
I could go on.
Now, when I hear the right lambast Obama, they start citing facts that are completely inconsistent with what is actually real:
- Obama isn't eligible to be president because he is not natural born: Wrong
- The economy has done worse under Obama: Wrong
- We are weaker today and our enemies are coming to get us: Wrong (hint: Bin Laden is dead)
- Obamacare is socialism: Wrong; it is mandated private insurance
- Obama has added more to our debt than all other presidents combined: Wrong (And a pointless metric due to inflation)
I have heard these talking points over and over from the right. And when you press them on specifics, they start saying that government data 'can't be trusted'. They are in full paranoia mode at this stage. And the fault lies 1000% with the Republican party themselves and this attitude they took after the 2008 election. Be obstructionist and don't compromise. Fuel anger on the far right. Block legislation. Shut down the government. On and on.
The one thing the Republicans espouse that I agree with totally now is that government doesn't work. But not for the reasons they are conveying. My conclusion is that when they are in charge, government CLEARLY doesn't work. Not because it can't. But because it won't.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 411 by NoNukes, posted 05-04-2016 1:26 PM NoNukes has seen this message but not replied

  
14174dm
Member (Idle past 1196 days)
Posts: 161
From: Cincinnati OH
Joined: 10-12-2015


Message 416 of 478 (783258)
05-04-2016 5:02 PM


Polls vs polls
I've been poking around looking at polls of Clinton v Trump.
One thought I had was whether all these polls are popular vote (for lack of a better term) rather than guestimates of electoral college.
Has anyone done polling that can be related to the electoral college?
I was wondering if Trump is likely to win in smaller population states so he can pull off a win like GW Bush 2000. GWB was pretty close on popular vote.
GWB 30 states for 47.9% of population for 271 electoral votes
AG 20 states+DC for 48.4% of population for 265 electoral votes.
Edited by 14174dm, : No reason given.

Replies to this message:
 Message 417 by Diomedes, posted 05-04-2016 5:40 PM 14174dm has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 996
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(1)
Message 417 of 478 (783265)
05-04-2016 5:40 PM
Reply to: Message 416 by 14174dm
05-04-2016 5:02 PM


Re: Polls vs polls
You may want to check out the Real Clear Politics website:
realclearpolitics.com
It has data on the latest polling as well as details on the electoral college.
To make a long story short, the road to the presidency for any GOP candidate is very difficult. CNN has some details on that as well at this URL:
Road to 270: CNN's general election map | CNN Politics
As you can see, the Dems already have an edge out of the gate with states that are either solid Dem or lean Dem.
I believe the main decider will be my home state of Florida. If one looks at the electoral map, there is virtually no way for a GOP candidate to win the presidency without Florida. The Dems already have California and New York in the bag. Texas goes Repub but without another high population state, the Repubs are pretty much screwed.
Florida went for Obama in the last two election cycles. And considering what Trump has said about Hispanics and Latinos, I am guessing he is going to have a hell of a time winning here. Plus his gender gap is worse than any other candidate before him.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 416 by 14174dm, posted 05-04-2016 5:02 PM 14174dm has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 419 by NoNukes, posted 05-04-2016 7:50 PM Diomedes has not replied
 Message 420 by NoNukes, posted 05-04-2016 8:58 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6421
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 3.5


(1)
Message 418 of 478 (783270)
05-04-2016 6:27 PM
Reply to: Message 413 by 1.61803
05-04-2016 1:39 PM


Re: Cruz Is Out
Trump will now emerge from his cocoon metamorphosis as
the new Tolerant Fair Sensitive Trump v2.0
He will have to shake that Etch-a-Sketch real hard.

Fundamentalism - the anti-American, anti-Christian branch of American Christianity

This message is a reply to:
 Message 413 by 1.61803, posted 05-04-2016 1:39 PM 1.61803 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 422 by 1.61803, posted 05-05-2016 11:39 AM nwr has seen this message but not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 419 of 478 (783286)
05-04-2016 7:50 PM
Reply to: Message 417 by Diomedes
05-04-2016 5:40 PM


Re: Polls vs polls
And considering what Trump has said about Hispanics and Latinos,
Maybe. But Latinos are not a monolithic block, and in particular Cubans tend to be more conservative than South and Central American folks. Also, with respect to illegal immigration, Cubans are not on the agenda. Is there even such thing as a Cuban illegal immigrant[1]?
[1]Mostly tongue in cheek...

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King
If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams

This message is a reply to:
 Message 417 by Diomedes, posted 05-04-2016 5:40 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 420 of 478 (783306)
05-04-2016 8:58 PM
Reply to: Message 417 by Diomedes
05-04-2016 5:40 PM


Re: Polls vs polls
I believe the main decider will be my home state of Florida.
Last election it was the Ohio result that caused Karl Rove to undergo an apoplectic fit on national TV.
Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King
If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams

This message is a reply to:
 Message 417 by Diomedes, posted 05-04-2016 5:40 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024