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Author Topic:   Iconic Peppered Moth - gene mutation found
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 311 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 34 of 76 (785413)
06-04-2016 11:15 AM
Reply to: Message 28 by Faith
06-04-2016 6:18 AM


Re: Very weird indeed
Mutation is in fact harder to explain. See my post to jar above. There is something very very weird about the idea that it was a mutation instead of built-in for the reasons I give there.
You know the dark allele is dominant, right? So if it had existed before the early nineteenth century then don't you think someone would have noticed it? And if it was magicked into existence by God In The Beginning, then wouldn't 6,000 years of natural selection have removed it from the gene pool before pollution made it beneficial?
You either need many same or similar mutations at the same locus to counteract the constant loss to predation, which doesn't fit with the general observations of mutations as random accidents of replication, or you have to count on one mutation surviving against ridiculous odds, or showing up so exactly at the right time that only a teleological mechanism could explain it. Not what the ToE normally has in mind.
This is more or less incomprehensible. What you actually need is for the mutation to show up and be favored by natural selection. Mutations occur, and natural selection would have favored this one. Any questions?
If there is any reasoning behind your false trichotomy, you have failed to demonstrate it, though I'm gonna guess that the Sharpshooter Fallacy is involved somewhere.
Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 28 by Faith, posted 06-04-2016 6:18 AM Faith has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 38 by Faith, posted 06-04-2016 3:43 PM Dr Adequate has replied
 Message 41 by herebedragons, posted 06-04-2016 7:57 PM Dr Adequate has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 311 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 40 of 76 (785429)
06-04-2016 4:48 PM
Reply to: Message 38 by Faith
06-04-2016 3:43 PM


Re: Very weird indeed
t would have favored it only at precisely exactly the right time for it to fit into the newly blackened environment. Otherwise it would have been eaten. Do follow the argument. Really. Make an effort to follow the argument.
Why is that your argument? Not only is that true (apart from the pharse "precisely exactly", since the Industrial Revolution didn't happen at one single instant of time, but rather went on for a bit) but also it appears to contradict everything else you're saying, such as:
I don't know why it wasn't noticed but it must have arisen earlier ...
It (or a mutation having the same effect) may well have done. A quick look on google shows that melanism does occur now and then in the animal kingdom. But then it would have been eaten, because of being anti-adaptive. So it had to happen again. Hence the evidence that this particular mutation dates from the early nineteenth century.
Most mutations are said to have been present some time before they get selected anyway.
Well, naturally they occur before they're selected for. But "some time before"? How much time, and by whom is this said?
Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.

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Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 311 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 55 of 76 (785480)
06-05-2016 9:31 PM
Reply to: Message 47 by Faith
06-05-2016 1:01 PM


Re: Yes it's totally weird
Then how is this "mutation" if it "comes along at the right time?" Is mutation a random accident of replication or is it an inevitable requirement of genetics? Which is it????
Obviously some random things are going to come along at the right time. If they all came along only at the wrong times, then we would have to start wondering if they were really random.

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Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 311 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 64 of 76 (785649)
06-08-2016 2:02 PM
Reply to: Message 59 by Taq
06-06-2016 6:00 PM


It is interesting to note from the paper that different populations of black mice have different genetic bases for their color.

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 Message 59 by Taq, posted 06-06-2016 6:00 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 65 by Taq, posted 06-08-2016 2:49 PM Dr Adequate has replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 311 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 66 of 76 (785661)
06-08-2016 3:12 PM
Reply to: Message 65 by Taq
06-08-2016 2:49 PM


Yes, that's what makes it interesting.

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Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 311 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 68 of 76 (785676)
06-08-2016 8:24 PM
Reply to: Message 67 by Faith
06-08-2016 6:35 PM


I don't think this situation proves either the usual idea about mutations or the built-in allleles idea. Mutations are not supposed to come along on cue to meet a need ...
And they didn't. Mutations arise randomly. We have explained this to you.
The built-in -- or pre-existing allele (or mutation) -- idea would mean that, yes, every time a black version popped up, as it would quite regularly, being dominant, MOST of them would be picked off but a few would survive so that allele would continue in the population -- even under severe negative selection until it was positively selected.
How would a black version "pop up" if it was "pre-existing"?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 67 by Faith, posted 06-08-2016 6:35 PM Faith has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 69 by Faith, posted 06-09-2016 12:07 PM Dr Adequate has replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 311 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(3)
Message 72 of 76 (785730)
06-09-2016 2:54 PM
Reply to: Message 69 by Faith
06-09-2016 12:07 PM


You are invited to do the probability calculations, but my rough guess is that to get a specific adaptive trait like a color that matches the background, you'd need something in the thousands or maybe millions of tries before it would show up.
I'd think closer to millions than thousands. Now, since there are lots of moths, and since there's a new generation every year, it's not going to take at all long for a one-in-a-million mutation to crop up, is it?
I did explain though perhaps not clearly enough. It would be heterozygous in a very small number of individuals and would get expressed (pop up) in the population in every generation, and MOST of them would be eaten but a few would manage to survive and the same gene would show up in the next generation in extremely small numbers.
As I said, it's improbable.
Indeed, since it requires thousands of years of this gene going unnoticed by entomologists and natural selection alike. Meanwhile the probability of it arising by mutation is so large as to amount to a crushing inevitability.

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