Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?

You do realise that GDP is NOT personal income ? Let alone the median income, as you claimed earlier.

It’s more the DUP than the Irish government. It’s pretty obvious that trying to make the Irish border into a hard border is a bad idea, even if the Irish would accept it. But that means that either Britain remains in the Customs Union or puts the border into the Irish Sea, leaving NI in the Customs Union. The Brexiteers won’t accept the first, the DUP won’t accept the second, and the Irish will veto the deal if a hard border isn’t ruled out.Theresa May must really be regretting calling the last General Election.Brexit was always a mess. The Irish border was always a problem. It’s just become really obvious now, and the DUP are ruling out what seems to be the only workable solution.

In principle, if everyone agrees I think it could be called off.But the chance of that is about zero, as things are. I can’t see the government surviving if it tried. There are too many Brexiteers among the Tories - they’re making things difficult as it is.Maybe if the Irish business brings down the Government (I don’t think it will). And if Labour get in (maybe, but I wouldn’t bet a lot on it). And if they can be persuaded to give up on it (another big maybe).The whole things a big mess. But it’s likely to get worse rather than better.

While May is relying on the Ulster Unionists to prop up her government ? No chance.

If the May government goes, and if the new government are prepared to upset the Unionists and if the new government wants a hard Brexit it would still be easier to make special customs arrangements for Northen Ireland.So, no. I still don’t see any real chance of it happening.

Unlike Pressie I don’t expect it, even with the wave of rsignations. That said, the hard line Brexiteers will be making trouble and it isn’t impossible that May might give up.(But if they really after a hard Brexit going for no deal seems easiest to me. Things are in enough of a mess as it is).

The big issue is the Irish backstop which is handled by keeping the entire UK in the Customs Union until the Irish border is sorted. That may appease the Unionists but the Brexiteers will hate it. Especially as the U.K. can’t unilaterally end it, as they wantedI doubt that they will be happy about the 21 month transition period - or that there is an option to extend it - either.

In addition to Raab, Vara (Minister of State at the Northern Ireland Office) and McVey (Work and Pensions Secretary) have resigned. Vara went before Raab.The Brexiteers are pulling out. The next question is whether they will try to replace May or just vote down the deal.

I called it nearly a year ago. Message 238

quote:

---

Yikes. What's the British term for clusterf*%k?

---

Brexit. Or it should be.

Parliament is trying to take control.BBCMPs have voted to demand the full legal advice concerning Brexit.
(An attempt to refer the whole matter to Committee also failed)They’ve also passed a motion demanding participation if May’s deal gets voted down.Also, Farage has quit UKIP.Legal advice from the EU says that the U.K. can cancel Brexit. It’s not a final ruling but it’s a strong sign in that direction.

However, Parliament is quite likely to rule out a no-deal Brexit. Excepting a hardline Brexiteer taking over as Prime Minister it’s unlikely that that would be ignored.

The European Court of Justice has ruled that Britain can unilaterally cancel Brexit and keep the current terms of EU membership. The Government, of course, opposed.I find that surprisingly generous. But it means that no Brexit is a real option.

And now it seems that May wants to delay (she says defer) the vote on her deal and renegotiate the Irish backstop. The SNP want Labour to call a vote of No Confidence. Parliament could vote down the attempt to delay the vote. 5 Tories have already said they will vote against the delay.The way this is going, May might be moving out of Number Ten pretty soon.

The Brexiteers are trying to get May kicked out. But even if they win she’ll be Prime Minister until the Tories select a new leader. Which will take up to six weeks. So even more Brexit drama (and Tory backstabbing) to come if she goes.May has cancelled a meeting with Varadkar to fight the party No Confidence vote.