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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 236 of 887 (811561)
06-09-2017 9:23 AM
Reply to: Message 232 by Tangle
06-09-2017 8:01 AM


Re: Labor claims that it will support the Exit.
I am curious what effect this will now have on Brexit negotiations. The whole premise behind this snap election was that May would have an even larger majority at her back when entering negotiations. Now, she faces the prospect of struggling to form a coalition and having a diminished bargaining position.
The tentative date for Brexit negotiations to start is June 19th. Only ten days away. She will have to scramble to get that coalition formed. But even so, the EU negotiators are probably now seeing blood in the water and the hand tipped in their favor.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 232 by Tangle, posted 06-09-2017 8:01 AM Tangle has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 237 by Diomedes, posted 12-04-2017 2:48 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 237 of 887 (824871)
12-04-2017 2:48 PM
Reply to: Message 236 by Diomedes
06-09-2017 9:23 AM


Will Ireland derail Brexit?
Latest Brexit talks are still hitting a wall despite original optimism about a deal.
Looks like the border between Northern Ireland and the Republican of Ireland is turning into quite a stickler point:
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
quote:
London and Brussels failed to clinch a long-sought breakthrough on Brexit after a series of dramatic twists that saw a tentative deal derailed by the delicate question of the Irish border.
It was not possible to reach a complete agreement today, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told reporters as glum negotiators looked on. Talks will resume this week and he’s confident there will be a agreement that paves the way for trade talks to begin.
This is definitely turning into quite the quagmire.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 236 by Diomedes, posted 06-09-2017 9:23 AM Diomedes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 238 by PaulK, posted 12-04-2017 3:33 PM Diomedes has not replied
 Message 245 by Diomedes, posted 02-28-2018 2:48 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 245 of 887 (829014)
02-28-2018 2:48 PM
Reply to: Message 237 by Diomedes
12-04-2017 2:48 PM


Re: Will Ireland derail Brexit?
Seems the situation with the Ireland border is turning into quite the quagmire for the UK leadership:
Theresa May rejects EU's draft option for Northern Ireland - BBC News
quote:
The EU's draft legal agreement proposes a "common regulatory area" after Brexit on the island of Ireland - in effect keeping Northern Ireland in a customs union - if no other solution is found.
Mrs May said "no UK prime minister could ever agree" to this.
I am honestly not sure how they will handle the situation. One the main reasons cited for Brexit was the requirement for stricter border controls. Now that appears to be undermining the fluidity of the current Northern Ireland border.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 237 by Diomedes, posted 12-04-2017 2:48 PM Diomedes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 246 by Diomedes, posted 05-02-2018 3:36 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 246 of 887 (832336)
05-02-2018 3:36 PM
Reply to: Message 245 by Diomedes
02-28-2018 2:48 PM


House of Lords delivers setback to May
House of Lords inflicts Brexit defeat on May’s government — The Irish Times
quote:
Theresa May’s government has suffered a major defeat on Brexit in the House of Lords, which voted to allow parliament to reject a withdrawal agreement without triggering an exit from the European Union with no deal. Peers voted by 335 votes to 244 in favour of an amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill despite government warnings that the vote would put Britain at a disadvantage in negotiations with the EU
This is turning into quite the pickle.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 245 by Diomedes, posted 02-28-2018 2:48 PM Diomedes has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 247 by Tangle, posted 05-02-2018 4:04 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 248 of 887 (832431)
05-03-2018 1:48 PM
Reply to: Message 247 by Tangle
05-02-2018 4:04 PM


Re: House of Lords delivers setback to May
It's going to get messier yet. There's a real chance of a 2nd referendum.
I had heard some dialog in regards to that. Although from what I gather, that is a bit of a long shot. I think the concern is that if they call another referendum and Leave wins again, that will cause massive turmoil for the government. And likely result in them having to rush to meet the Brexit deadline next year. Might increase the likelihood of a 'hard Brexit'.
IMO, that snap election called by Theresa May really undermined things. It necessitated having to create a coalition with that fringe party in Northern Ireland and also diminished her government's position in the eyes of the EU.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 247 by Tangle, posted 05-02-2018 4:04 PM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 249 by Tangle, posted 05-03-2018 3:12 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 250 of 887 (832497)
05-04-2018 3:35 PM
Reply to: Message 249 by Tangle
05-03-2018 3:12 PM


Re: House of Lords delivers setback to May
The snap election made sense at the time, she should have won with a landslide, no-one predicted the result before it happened.
Kind of sounds like the 2016 USA election.
What is the legality of calling a second referendum? I am assuming that would be something parliament would have to propose? Or can the Prime Minister simply call for another one on her own?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 249 by Tangle, posted 05-03-2018 3:12 PM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 251 by caffeine, posted 05-04-2018 4:29 PM Diomedes has not replied
 Message 252 by Tangle, posted 05-04-2018 6:18 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 253 of 887 (836087)
07-09-2018 2:46 PM
Reply to: Message 252 by Tangle
05-04-2018 6:18 PM


Adios Boris.....
Boris Johnson tells PM she is suffocating Brexit 'dream' - BBC News
quote:
Boris Johnson has launched a scathing attack on Theresa May's Brexit strategy, saying the "dream is dying, suffocated by needless self-doubt".
In his letter resigning as foreign secretary, he said the prime minister was leading the UK into a "semi-Brexit" with the "status of a colony".
His resignation came hours after Brexit Secretary David Davis quit the cabinet.
This is becoming quite the quagmire. It appears as though the hard line conservatives aren't going to be satisfied with anything but a hard Brexit.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 252 by Tangle, posted 05-04-2018 6:18 PM Tangle has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(1)
Message 259 of 887 (836143)
07-11-2018 1:02 PM
Reply to: Message 258 by PaulK
07-11-2018 7:35 AM


Re: House of Lords delivers setback to May
I honestly don't see the May government going just yet. Brexit negotiations would be thrown for a loop if there was a sudden changing of the guard. It's less than a year to the deadline of the Article 50 announcement. Unless the conservatives have ultimately decided to just throw the proverbial 'F U' to Europe and aim for a hard Brexit. But I can't fathom that the entire conservative party wanting that outcome.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 258 by PaulK, posted 07-11-2018 7:35 AM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 260 by PaulK, posted 07-11-2018 1:22 PM Diomedes has not replied
 Message 262 by Diomedes, posted 09-19-2018 3:44 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 262 of 887 (839949)
09-19-2018 3:44 PM
Reply to: Message 259 by Diomedes
07-11-2018 1:02 PM


Irish border still a quagmire
Was watching Dateline London recently and I see that the Irish border quagmire is still throwing a monkey wrench into Brexit negotiations:
Brexit: Theresa May tells EU leaders their plans must 'evolve' - BBC News
quote:
Theresa May says the EU must "evolve" its stance on the Irish border as she prepares to make the case for her Brexit plans to other European leaders.
In Salzburg, the PM welcomed the EU's recognition its initial proposal to avoid a hard border in Ireland was "unacceptable".
It comes after EU negotiator Michel Barnier suggested a shift in tone on his controversial "backstop" plan.
Mrs May said her own Chequers plan would ensure "frictionless trade".
She appears to still be pushing the Chequers deal, even though she has gotten massive push back from members of the conservative party. The most vocal being, of course, Boris Johnson.
The clock is ticking here and I am surprised more progress hasn't been made. The Article 50 deadline is only six months away.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 259 by Diomedes, posted 07-11-2018 1:02 PM Diomedes has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 263 by jar, posted 09-19-2018 5:19 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 265 of 887 (839992)
09-21-2018 10:09 AM
Reply to: Message 264 by Tangle
09-20-2018 12:59 AM


Re: Irish border still a quagmire
Now it looks like the EU flat out stated that the Chequers plan won't work:
Donald Tusk: Theresa May's Brexit trade plan won't work - BBC News
quote:
Theresa May's proposed new economic partnership with the EU "will not work", the head of the European Council has said.
Donald Tusk said the plans risked undermining the EU's single market.
He was speaking at the end of an EU summit in Salzburg where leaders of the 27 remaining member states discussed Brexit.
--------
Analysis by BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg
Can the prime minister really cling on to her Chequers plan now?
The EU clearly won't accept it as it stands. Significant chunks of her party won't wear the deal either. The opposition parties won't back her.
Of course there are tactics at play here. One government minister has already suggested that the EU always knows how to overplay their hand.
Sometimes in negotiations, there needs to be a crisis to focus minds.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 264 by Tangle, posted 09-20-2018 12:59 AM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 266 by Tangle, posted 09-21-2018 1:49 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 268 of 887 (840004)
09-21-2018 2:57 PM
Reply to: Message 266 by Tangle
09-21-2018 1:49 PM


Re: Irish border still a quagmire
People always underestimate May; but she's stubborn and persistent.
She definitely seems to be. I would have already caved under the pressure she is under.
The EU needs to be careful; one way of ensuring that the UK won't vote to remain (if they get the second chance) is to be the arrogant bullies that most here think they are.
In all honesty, I haven't been overly impressed with EU bureaucracy on Brexit or many other matters. Brussels comes across as a bunch of aristocrats who seem to be more concerned about their status than formulating good policies. Jean-Claude Juncker honestly sounds like a Bond villain every time he speaks.
Mind you, Boris Johnson and Nigel Farange are not exactly helping matters either.

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 Message 266 by Tangle, posted 09-21-2018 1:49 PM Tangle has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 279 by Diomedes, posted 09-28-2018 12:54 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 279 of 887 (840391)
09-28-2018 12:54 PM
Reply to: Message 268 by Diomedes
09-21-2018 2:57 PM


Boris to the rescue?
Boris Johnson sets out his 'Super Canada' Brexit plan - BBC News
quote:
Boris Johnson has set out his own plan for Brexit, arguing that the UK should "chuck Chequers" and negotiate a "Super Canada" free trade deal instead.
The ex-foreign secretary, who quit over Theresa May's Chequers Brexit plan, called her strategy "a moral and intellectual humiliation".
He said his vision would not lead to a hard Irish border, with any checks carried out away from the crossing.
Don't know the details of his proposal. But my suspicion is this is a calculated political ploy to marshal the conservatives to his side as a preamble to him starting a bid for Prime Minister.
Looking at the timing, Boris originally withdrew himself from consideration for PM and May ended up taking the helm. I am wondering if he wanted someone else to take the brunt of the negotiating negativity and then he could swoop in as savior of the UK.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 268 by Diomedes, posted 09-21-2018 2:57 PM Diomedes has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 280 by Straggler, posted 10-22-2018 6:10 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 283 of 887 (841950)
10-24-2018 11:41 AM
Reply to: Message 280 by Straggler
10-22-2018 6:10 PM


Re: Boris to the rescue?
This whole Brexit thing is a nation standing on a rake, getting thwacked in the face
You mean something like this?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 280 by Straggler, posted 10-22-2018 6:10 PM Straggler has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 284 of 887 (841973)
10-24-2018 2:23 PM
Reply to: Message 280 by Straggler
10-22-2018 6:10 PM


Re: Boris to the rescue?
Latest news/gossip is that 46 of the 48 letters required to force a Conservative party leadership election have been submitted. Proceedings for a new prime minister could be underway by the end of the week.
I was wondering how long it would be before some vote of no confidence manifested itself. I can't say if that will make things better or worse. Seems like throwing additional uncertainty into an already uncertain situation may not be the best course of action.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 280 by Straggler, posted 10-22-2018 6:10 PM Straggler has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 285 by Straggler, posted 10-24-2018 5:05 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 286 of 887 (842001)
10-25-2018 9:33 AM
Reply to: Message 285 by Straggler
10-24-2018 5:05 PM


Re: Boris to the rescue?
I guess the real question may be just how much longer she wants to be at the helm? She isn't getting any love from the EU bureaucrats and she is getting continuously scrutinized by her own party. I am wondering if she will eventually throw in the towel if there isn't any kind of cohesive coalition that allows her to make a deal with the EU.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 285 by Straggler, posted 10-24-2018 5:05 PM Straggler has not replied

  
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