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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
PaulK
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Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


(1)
Message 397 of 887 (847031)
01-16-2019 12:29 AM
Reply to: Message 396 by AZPaul3
01-15-2019 6:13 PM


Re: A Massive defeat for May
quote:
They made it. Now, change it. Choose some other date.
Parliament has the power, but they have to use it. And if they want an extension of the deadline they need EU agreement.
quote:
So what would stop either or both from obersving most of those conventions anyway?
Public pressure for some, international law for others.
quote:
They want bicycle seats of different than regulated EU sizes, they can have it.
Once we depart from EU regulations the EU is going to stop recognising our standards - at least in the relevant areas. Which means companies would need to get EU certification for goods. It’s not just goods either - data protection is a big issue. If we don’t follow GDPR to the EU’s satisfaction, EU companies can’t send their data here.
quote:
Heavens forbid two neighbors should make nice with each other. Reach an accommodation with the neighbor. Let the talks begin yet again and yet again for however long it takes. Ireland may not be Mexico but Brits don’t get to build a wall either.
The point is that Ireland is in the EU, so it’s not just Britain and Ireland, it’s Britain and the whole EU. Ireland is not going to institute border controls with the rest of the EU, and we can’t expect them to.
quote:
Very easily indeed, but with the whole world watching there is a larger constituency to be served. The question comes up who is doing what level of rigging and why?
Probably the government to try to get support for May’s deal. But it is worse than that, it is hard to set the question so that it doesn’t influence the result.
quote:
I would think what will be settled on as the final language would not be allowed to get too far away from fair.
Which would be fine if there was agreement on what is fair. But there isn’t. If the majority want Brexit in some form should we stick with Brexit ? If there is more support for Remain than there is for either of May’s deal or No Deal individually should we abandon Brexit ? Both are very likely true.
quote:
If she falls, does it come crashing down to the point where Her Majesty dissolves the Parliament, beheads both the PM and the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and calls for an election?
Usually it’s a General Election but Parliament has time to come up with an alternative government - if they can agree on one.

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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 405 of 887 (847074)
01-17-2019 12:57 PM
Reply to: Message 400 by Straggler
01-16-2019 5:36 PM


Re: May's government survives no confidence vote
We have May’s Plan B. Run down the clock, threaten No Deal and hope someone else blinks.
She’s playing chicken with the fate of the Nation. Too bad there is no way to get rid of her.

This message is a reply to:
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PaulK
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Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 414 of 887 (847143)
01-18-2019 1:36 PM
Reply to: Message 411 by Diomedes
01-18-2019 9:32 AM


Re: May's government survives no confidence vote
In reality the Queen is supposed to stay out of politics. In law she has powers, but using them would provoke a crisis.
She doesn’t have a casting vote on anything - she doesn’t even have a vote in a General Election. In principle she could tell Theresa May to pack her bags and get out of Number Ten, but I really don’t think we want a massive fight over the Monarchy on top of all the Brexit mess. And that’s about the most useful thing she could do - even in principle - right now.

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PaulK
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Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 420 of 887 (847407)
01-22-2019 11:19 AM
Reply to: Message 419 by Diomedes
01-22-2019 10:48 AM


Re: May's Plan B
May’s Plan B is she threatens everyone with No Deal to get Plan A through Parliament.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 419 by Diomedes, posted 01-22-2019 10:48 AM Diomedes has replied

Replies to this message:
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 422 of 887 (847414)
01-22-2019 12:25 PM
Reply to: Message 421 by Diomedes
01-22-2019 12:17 PM


Re: May's Plan B
Probably not. The EU has the Irish backstop as a red line and they aren’t likely to risk it just so that May can push her deal through Parliament. It might work on Parliament, if the efforts to stop it don’t come through. But given the scale of her defeat the first time it’s not something to bank on.

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Replies to this message:
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 424 of 887 (847435)
01-22-2019 2:58 PM
Reply to: Message 423 by Diomedes
01-22-2019 2:23 PM


Re: May's Plan B
I think that the most likely scenarios are - at present:
No Deal
Parliament takes over and forces a soft Brexit
May’s deal
And the order of likelihood is far from certain. No Brexit isn’t even ruled out. It also depends on the EU’s tolerance for the squabbling I. Parliament. If the EU won’t grant an extension for Parliament to get its act together (or for a referendum or a General Election or whatever) then that’s pretty much out.
Whichever way it goes expect a load of arguing and shouting and rancor in the House.

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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 430 of 887 (847904)
01-29-2019 9:54 AM
Reply to: Message 429 by Diomedes
01-29-2019 9:38 AM


Re: May to reopen deal talks with EU
It’s all about the Irish Backstop. If May has concrete - and realistic - proposals to avoid it she stands a chance.
But if she is just going to go back to insisting on a fixed time limit or a unilateral right to withdraw - or assuming that the “technology” fairies will magically solve all the problems it is going to be a hard sell.

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Replies to this message:
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 438 of 887 (847921)
01-29-2019 3:05 PM
Reply to: Message 436 by Tangle
01-29-2019 2:32 PM


Re: May to reopen deal talks with EU
quote:
...run up the pirate flag
Oh great. We could be the next Venezuala

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 Message 436 by Tangle, posted 01-29-2019 2:32 PM Tangle has replied

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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 444 of 887 (847995)
01-30-2019 11:07 AM
Reply to: Message 443 by Diomedes
01-30-2019 9:48 AM


Re: May's Plan B
The way I see it is that May is only allowing three options.
The EU backs down over the backstop.
Parliament passes May’s deal as it is
No Deal.
And unless Parliament gets its act together the second option is the least bad we can hope for.
The BBC has live blogging of Parliament. Whenever anyone asks May to rule out No Deal she tells them to vote for a deal - i.e. whatever deal she feels like offering.

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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 447 of 887 (847998)
01-30-2019 12:14 PM
Reply to: Message 446 by Diomedes
01-30-2019 11:45 AM


Re: May's Plan B
I don’t see the EU changing course without a substantial offer from May, and I don’t see May offering anything more than “change the backstop or No Deal”.

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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 450 of 887 (848003)
01-30-2019 1:27 PM
Reply to: Message 448 by AZPaul3
01-30-2019 1:10 PM


The EU position is that it stays as negotiated. It’s part of the deal and it’s the best option they found in the negotiations.
The hardline Brexiteers want a strict time limit or the right to pull out unilaterally - without an alternative having been found.
Parliament narrowly voted for demanding an alternative now, because May decided to make a concession to the hardliners. Nobody has said anything about what that alternative might be.
The least unreasonable option (apart from cancelling Brexit) is to go for a Customs Union now (no need for a backstop then). That might get through Parliament but the Tories would implode (when the hardliners explode).
Sadly the next best thing is May’s deal, with the backstop. Which amounts to a temporary Customs Union until an alternative is found (I think that the hardliners realise that that is really, really difficult - although they say otherwise - and that is why they object to the backstop)
Sticking a border in the Irish Sea solves a lot of the problems but the DUP would explode and a lot of the Tories wouldn’t like it either.

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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 453 of 887 (848007)
01-30-2019 2:11 PM
Reply to: Message 451 by caffeine
01-30-2019 1:37 PM


quote:
The backstop idea was essentially that Northern Ireland would remain in the customs union unless and until some other idea occurs to someone - meaning there would be customs checks imposed between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Parliament has rejected this idea.
The final version is that the backstop applies to the whole of the U.K. - except for some regulatory alignment. Probably to try to keep it acceptable to the DUP - but it didn’t work.

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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 459 of 887 (848061)
01-31-2019 10:05 AM
Reply to: Message 458 by Percy
01-31-2019 9:56 AM


Re: Another Referendum
It’s only an option if enough MPs will back it. The pro-Brexit types, including May, are dead set against it. We’d need an extension now for it to make sense and May is against that, too.

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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 464 of 887 (848108)
01-31-2019 2:28 PM
Reply to: Message 462 by Diomedes
01-31-2019 2:14 PM


Re: Another Referendum
I think that the real problem is that there is no acceptable solution to the Irish border.
If there was a way of keeping it open that would be acceptable to Parliament the EU would go for it. The point of the backstop is to give Britain time to come up with a solution and show it can work.

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Replies to this message:
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 Message 467 by caffeine, posted 01-31-2019 3:57 PM PaulK has replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 468 of 887 (848126)
01-31-2019 4:10 PM
Reply to: Message 467 by caffeine
01-31-2019 3:57 PM


Re: Another Referendum
quote:
But this problem with that is who gets to decide when a solution has been reached
Each side gets to say if it is acceptable to them. You can object that one of them might be acting in bad faith, but it’s hard to find anything better.
Right now the ERG are only willing to accept their idea that technology and trusted trader schemes. And it is really questionable whether it will. Or how long it would take to get it working if it could work. The backstop gives them the chance to make a better case - hopefully including some trials of some sort. Just assuming that it is going to work, on the other hand leaves everyone with a problem. But that is all the ERG will accept.
The EU would be happy with a full Customs Union. They would probably accept limiting the backstop to Northern Ireland, with a border with the Irish Sea. But they aren’t going to accept a closed border in Ireland.

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