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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 902
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 421 of 771 (847413)
01-22-2019 12:17 PM
Reply to: Message 420 by PaulK
01-22-2019 11:19 AM


Re: May's Plan B
May’s Plan B is she threatens everyone with No Deal to get Plan A through Parliament.

That actually does clarify Plan B. Question is: will it work? Seems like a dangerous gambit.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 420 by PaulK, posted 01-22-2019 11:19 AM PaulK has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 422 by PaulK, posted 01-22-2019 12:25 PM Diomedes has responded

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 15370
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 422 of 771 (847414)
01-22-2019 12:25 PM
Reply to: Message 421 by Diomedes
01-22-2019 12:17 PM


Re: May's Plan B
Probably not. The EU has the Irish backstop as a red line and they aren’t likely to risk it just so that May can push her deal through Parliament. It might work on Parliament, if the efforts to stop it don’t come through. But given the scale of her defeat the first time it’s not something to bank on.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 421 by Diomedes, posted 01-22-2019 12:17 PM Diomedes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 423 by Diomedes, posted 01-22-2019 2:23 PM PaulK has responded

    
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 902
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 423 of 771 (847423)
01-22-2019 2:23 PM
Reply to: Message 422 by PaulK
01-22-2019 12:25 PM


Re: May's Plan B
Probably not. The EU has the Irish backstop as a red line and they aren’t likely to risk it just so that May can push her deal through Parliament.

So if that is the case, doesn't that mean a No Deal Brexit is pretty much the most likely at this stage? The only options left are:

1) May's Deal
2) No Deal
3) Second referendum (and/or general election)

If May is running down the clock, option 3 seems to be highly unlikely. Especially considering the requirement for an extension of Article 50. Which would need European Parliament approval.

I guess the only other potential option is a a revocation of Article 50. I believe the EU said Britain can do this unilaterally. Considering the political climate, that may be considered a betrayal of democracy. Of course, they could argue that they are only revoking it 'temporarily' to provide time for alternatives.

As I said: clusterfuck and rapidly approaching shitstorm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 422 by PaulK, posted 01-22-2019 12:25 PM PaulK has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 424 by PaulK, posted 01-22-2019 2:58 PM Diomedes has not yet responded
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 15370
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 424 of 771 (847435)
01-22-2019 2:58 PM
Reply to: Message 423 by Diomedes
01-22-2019 2:23 PM


Re: May's Plan B
I think that the most likely scenarios are - at present:

No Deal

Parliament takes over and forces a soft Brexit

May’s deal

And the order of likelihood is far from certain. No Brexit isn’t even ruled out. It also depends on the EU’s tolerance for the squabbling I. Parliament. If the EU won’t grant an extension for Parliament to get its act together (or for a referendum or a General Election or whatever) then that’s pretty much out.

Whichever way it goes expect a load of arguing and shouting and rancor in the House.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 423 by Diomedes, posted 01-22-2019 2:23 PM Diomedes has not yet responded

    
Tangle
Member
Posts: 7067
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 425 of 771 (847674)
01-25-2019 2:45 AM


Queenie has decided to say something...to the Women's Institute!

quote:

The Queen has called for “common ground” and “never losing sight of the bigger picture” in a speech to mark the centenary of the Sandringham Women’s Institute (WI), which is likely to be interpreted as a veiled reference to the toxic debate around Brexit.

She spoke of the virtues of “respecting” the other person’s point of view, as parliament remains deeply divided over the issue of Britain leaving the EU.



Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


Replies to this message:
 Message 426 by AZPaul3, posted 01-25-2019 3:03 AM Tangle has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 4504
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 426 of 771 (847675)
01-25-2019 3:03 AM
Reply to: Message 425 by Tangle
01-25-2019 2:45 AM


Was there a huge man dressed in leather armor standing to the left behind her carrying a large head-chopping ax?
This message is a reply to:
 Message 425 by Tangle, posted 01-25-2019 2:45 AM Tangle has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 427 by Tangle, posted 01-25-2019 3:30 AM AZPaul3 has responded

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 7067
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 427 of 771 (847676)
01-25-2019 3:30 AM
Reply to: Message 426 by AZPaul3
01-25-2019 3:03 AM


Yes but no axe, just a tray of homemade Victoria sponge cakes.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 426 by AZPaul3, posted 01-25-2019 3:03 AM AZPaul3 has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 428 by AZPaul3, posted 01-25-2019 3:45 AM Tangle has not yet responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 4504
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 428 of 771 (847677)
01-25-2019 3:45 AM
Reply to: Message 427 by Tangle
01-25-2019 3:30 AM


Oh Dear. Her Majesty shows a lack of imagination. Charles would have had the ax-man in the scene just to help the point across.

BTW, the sponge cakes, strawberry or lemon?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 427 by Tangle, posted 01-25-2019 3:30 AM Tangle has not yet responded

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 902
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 429 of 771 (847902)
01-29-2019 9:38 AM


May to reopen deal talks with EU
quote:
Theresa May is addressing MPs after telling her cabinet she will talk to the EU later about reopening talks on how the UK leaves the bloc on 29 March.

She is expected to have phone calls with key EU leaders throughout the day ahead of a series of Commons votes over the future direction of Brexit.

The EU has ruled out making changes to the legal text agreed with the UK PM.

But Mrs May has told her cabinet she will seek legally binding changes to the controversial Irish backstop.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47037365

Well this should be interesting. Not sure how much the EU is going to budge. But perhaps with the prospect of a No Deal Brexit on the horizon, they might be willing to make some concessions.


Replies to this message:
 Message 430 by PaulK, posted 01-29-2019 9:54 AM Diomedes has responded

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 15370
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 430 of 771 (847904)
01-29-2019 9:54 AM
Reply to: Message 429 by Diomedes
01-29-2019 9:38 AM


Re: May to reopen deal talks with EU
It’s all about the Irish Backstop. If May has concrete - and realistic - proposals to avoid it she stands a chance.

But if she is just going to go back to insisting on a fixed time limit or a unilateral right to withdraw - or assuming that the “technology” fairies will magically solve all the problems it is going to be a hard sell.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 429 by Diomedes, posted 01-29-2019 9:38 AM Diomedes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 432 by Diomedes, posted 01-29-2019 12:59 PM PaulK has not yet responded

    
Tangle
Member
Posts: 7067
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 431 of 771 (847907)
01-29-2019 10:24 AM


If I was the EU, I'd be doing everything I could to create an environment for a referrendum. That means give nothing - they know 'no deal' is impossible, except by accident.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 902
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 432 of 771 (847910)
01-29-2019 12:59 PM
Reply to: Message 430 by PaulK
01-29-2019 9:54 AM


Re: May to reopen deal talks with EU
PaulK writes:

It’s all about the Irish Backstop. If May has concrete - and realistic - proposals to avoid it she stands a chance.

I think there are also stickler points around whether or not the UK stays in the common market and the customs union. Several Labour MPs and Brexiteers seem to have widely different ideas about that.

Tangle writes:

If I was the EU, I'd be doing everything I could to create an environment for a referrendum. That means give nothing - they know 'no deal' is impossible, except by accident.

I think that has been their endgame from the get go. Either force a re-vote or broker a deal that is heavily skewed in the EU's favor. The last thing the EU wants right now is to foster a situation where the UK comes out on top and has an economy that starts to outperform the EU. That would set a dangerous precedent and could start to give ideas for thinks like Grexit, Italexit, Frexit, etc. Those are unlikely in my opinion, but there could still be pressure on Brussels if an economic slowdown occurs and affects the EU disproportionately relative to other countries.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 430 by PaulK, posted 01-29-2019 9:54 AM PaulK has not yet responded

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 Message 433 by frako, posted 01-29-2019 1:34 PM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
frako
Member
Posts: 2814
From: slovenija
Joined: 09-04-2010


Message 433 of 771 (847912)
01-29-2019 1:34 PM
Reply to: Message 432 by Diomedes
01-29-2019 12:59 PM


Re: May to reopen deal talks with EU
I think that has been their endgame from the get go. Either force a re-vote or broker a deal that is heavily skewed in the EU's favor.

Well the birts had the idea that they will be the British empire negotiating with a pack of barbarians. Thing is They are a fractured island nation negotiating with an empire. Of course the deal will be skewed in the EU'S favour that's the whole point of 27 countries banning together. They wanted to leave and still have open access to the EU's common market who do they think they are. They had the best deal of any EU nation, they did not have the EURO and their open borders where not so open iv been trough the whole of Europe the only place i was ever searched on the border was the UK. They even got rebates from the Eu common fund a veto vote .... If there was ever an EU member that had no reason to leave that would be the UK. I just hope when they come begging back on their hands and knees they get a standard entry deal.


Christianity, One woman's lie about an affair that got seriously out of hand

What are the Christians gonna do to me ..... Forgive me, good luck with that.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 432 by Diomedes, posted 01-29-2019 12:59 PM Diomedes has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 434 by Tangle, posted 01-29-2019 2:04 PM frako has responded

    
Tangle
Member
Posts: 7067
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 434 of 771 (847916)
01-29-2019 2:04 PM
Reply to: Message 433 by frako
01-29-2019 1:34 PM


Re: May to reopen deal talks with EU
frako writes:

I just hope when they come begging back on their hands and knees they get a standard entry deal

We just need to revoke and it's like nothing happened.

Personally I'm for that, but if people are insistent on leaving I want the whole hog; totally gone - no deal, start again from scratch. We deal with the initial chaos - inflation, shortages, jams, currency falls, unemployment and re-build as a giant Singapore and fuck the EU up the arse. It'll take two generations.

And all the C2, D Brexiters and pensioners will personally suffer, because they'll be at the coal face but that's what the idiots wanted right?


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 433 by frako, posted 01-29-2019 1:34 PM frako has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 435 by frako, posted 01-29-2019 2:24 PM Tangle has responded

  
frako
Member
Posts: 2814
From: slovenija
Joined: 09-04-2010


Message 435 of 771 (847918)
01-29-2019 2:24 PM
Reply to: Message 434 by Tangle
01-29-2019 2:04 PM


Re: May to reopen deal talks with EU
We just need to revoke and it's like nothing happened.

Yea but thats not going to happen, the right would riot.

re-build as a giant Singapore and fuck the EU up the arse. It'll take two generations.

No you wont, the only reason you had all that trade with china was because you labled yourselves as the door to Europe. Without the EU you are a door to nowhere. Its the french that will have to expand their docks to compensate now.


Christianity, One woman's lie about an affair that got seriously out of hand

What are the Christians gonna do to me ..... Forgive me, good luck with that.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 434 by Tangle, posted 01-29-2019 2:04 PM Tangle has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 436 by Tangle, posted 01-29-2019 2:32 PM frako has responded

    
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