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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
Tangle
Member
Posts: 6618
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.5


(1)
Message 436 of 493 (847919)
01-29-2019 2:32 PM
Reply to: Message 435 by frako
01-29-2019 2:24 PM


Re: May to reopen deal talks with EU
frako writes:

Without the EU you are a door to nowhere. Its the french that will have to expand their docks to compensate now.

The French are so bogged down in antique unionised working practices, agricultural subsidies and employment restrictions that they couldn't find their arses with the help of two teams of grape pickers.

We'd run rings round them by slashing taxes, slashing welfare ignoring EU regulation on tax incentives and run up the pirate flag.

Well a boy can dream.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 435 by frako, posted 01-29-2019 2:24 PM frako has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 437 by frako, posted 01-29-2019 2:56 PM Tangle has responded
 Message 438 by PaulK, posted 01-29-2019 3:05 PM Tangle has responded

  
frako
Member
Posts: 2813
From: slovenija
Joined: 09-04-2010


Message 437 of 493 (847920)
01-29-2019 2:56 PM
Reply to: Message 436 by Tangle
01-29-2019 2:32 PM


Re: May to reopen deal talks with EU
We'd run rings round them by slashing taxes,

Nice thought but you will loose business going out of the EU, so you will either have to borrow lots of money or raise taxes to compensate for tax revenue.

slashing welfare

ya even if you do welfare expenditures will increase because of the lost jobs from failed businesses.

run up the pirate flag

Quite possibly because poor people who lost their jobs and have low welfare sometimes need to steal to survive.


Christianity, One woman's lie about an affair that got seriously out of hand

What are the Christians gonna do to me ..... Forgive me, good luck with that.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 436 by Tangle, posted 01-29-2019 2:32 PM Tangle has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 440 by Tangle, posted 01-29-2019 4:38 PM frako has not yet responded

    
PaulK
Member
Posts: 14719
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 438 of 493 (847921)
01-29-2019 3:05 PM
Reply to: Message 436 by Tangle
01-29-2019 2:32 PM


Re: May to reopen deal talks with EU
quote:

...run up the pirate flag

Oh great. We could be the next Venezuala


This message is a reply to:
 Message 436 by Tangle, posted 01-29-2019 2:32 PM Tangle has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 439 by Tangle, posted 01-29-2019 4:22 PM PaulK has not yet responded

    
Tangle
Member
Posts: 6618
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 439 of 493 (847934)
01-29-2019 4:22 PM
Reply to: Message 438 by PaulK
01-29-2019 3:05 PM


Re: May to reopen deal talks with EU
PaulK writes:

Oh great. We could be the next Venezuala

Nah, we'd be full-blooded, Trumpian, right-wing capitalists. What could possibly go wrong?


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 438 by PaulK, posted 01-29-2019 3:05 PM PaulK has not yet responded

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 6618
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 440 of 493 (847940)
01-29-2019 4:38 PM
Reply to: Message 437 by frako
01-29-2019 2:56 PM


Re: May to reopen deal talks with EU
fraxo writes:

Nice thought but you will loose business going out of the EU, so you will either have to borrow lots of money or raise taxes to compensate for tax revenue.

Oh it'll fuck manufacturing but we've got sod all of that left that matters and the bits that do matter we won't lose because we do it and others can't - for a while at least.

We make up for it by slashing corporation tax and giving massive tax incentives for inward investment. We drop huge chunks of financial regulation and let the bankers, hedge funds and those demonic globalists off the leash.

ya even if you do welfare expenditures will increase because of the lost jobs from failed businesses.

Nope, the jobless will be working in the fields because while there are jobs available there - which there will be because the Eastern Europeans will not be allowed in to pick our cauliflowers and plums - social security payments will not be made to those that can work. We're all fascist now remember. And we're digging for victory.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 437 by frako, posted 01-29-2019 2:56 PM frako has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 441 by AZPaul3, posted 01-29-2019 6:16 PM Tangle has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 3764
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.3


Message 441 of 493 (847965)
01-29-2019 6:16 PM
Reply to: Message 440 by Tangle
01-29-2019 4:38 PM


Re: May to reopen deal talks with EU
We're all fascist now remember. And we're digging for victory.

Tangle, you're scaring me.

I'm seeing this sentiment in enough places in my own country ... taken seriously.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 440 by Tangle, posted 01-29-2019 4:38 PM Tangle has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 442 by Tangle, posted 01-29-2019 6:49 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 6618
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 442 of 493 (847970)
01-29-2019 6:49 PM
Reply to: Message 441 by AZPaul3
01-29-2019 6:16 PM


Re: May to reopen deal talks with EU
AZPaul writes:

I'm seeing this sentiment in enough places in my own country ... taken seriously.

This too will pass....


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 441 by AZPaul3, posted 01-29-2019 6:16 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 799
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 443 of 493 (847990)
01-30-2019 9:48 AM
Reply to: Message 423 by Diomedes
01-22-2019 2:23 PM


Re: May's Plan B
Based on the latest voting in Parliament, it appears 'No Deal' has been 'officially' taken off the table. I can't say for certain if that is binding or not. But it appears the view from Parliament is that no deal is not viable. So that is good news.

I guess now that leaves the following:

1) Amended version of May's deal
2) Some alternate deal
3) Another referendum

Based on May's speech, it appears another referendum is off the table and does not have majority support in Parliament. And there isn't a chance of a general election at this stage. So I am guessing option 3 is also a non starter.

That essentially leaves either a tweaked version of May's deal or some other deal. A new deal from scratch is, in my opinion, impossible given the circumstances. So I am guessing that as the clock runs down, Parliament will end up grudgingly voting for May's deal. Unless they can make a strong case that a new deal is the best option and then convince the EU to provide an Article 50 extension.

Well, that's the landscape as it currently stands. Mind you, with the way things have played out up to this point, I am not ruling out any of the other options, even those that are allegedly 'off the table'.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 423 by Diomedes, posted 01-22-2019 2:23 PM Diomedes has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 444 by PaulK, posted 01-30-2019 11:07 AM Diomedes has responded
 Message 445 by Tangle, posted 01-30-2019 11:09 AM Diomedes has not yet responded
 Message 449 by caffeine, posted 01-30-2019 1:21 PM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 14719
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 444 of 493 (847995)
01-30-2019 11:07 AM
Reply to: Message 443 by Diomedes
01-30-2019 9:48 AM


Re: May's Plan B
The way I see it is that May is only allowing three options.

The EU backs down over the backstop.

Parliament passes May’s deal as it is

No Deal.

And unless Parliament gets its act together the second option is the least bad we can hope for.

The BBC has live blogging of Parliament. Whenever anyone asks May to rule out No Deal she tells them to vote for a deal - i.e. whatever deal she feels like offering.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 443 by Diomedes, posted 01-30-2019 9:48 AM Diomedes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 446 by Diomedes, posted 01-30-2019 11:45 AM PaulK has responded

    
Tangle
Member
Posts: 6618
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 445 of 493 (847996)
01-30-2019 11:09 AM
Reply to: Message 443 by Diomedes
01-30-2019 9:48 AM


Re: May's Plan B
The 'accidental' no deal is a also reasonable possibility. Just because parliament voted against no-deal doesn't mean it won't happen. If they don't agree a deal or an extension, no-deal happens on 29th March.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 443 by Diomedes, posted 01-30-2019 9:48 AM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 799
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 446 of 493 (847997)
01-30-2019 11:45 AM
Reply to: Message 444 by PaulK
01-30-2019 11:07 AM


Re: May's Plan B
The way I see it is that May is only allowing three options.
The EU backs down over the backstop.

Parliament passes May’s deal as it is

No Deal.

And unless Parliament gets its act together the second option is the least bad we can hope for.

I just saw a video of Junckers at the EU saying there would be 'no renegotiation' of the existing deal. He may be grandstanding, but the EU seems to have been firm on its stance for some time. That would lead me to believe that the EU caving on the backstop is unlikely. Unless they acknowledge some 'reassurances' which are acceptable for Parliament. But they seem to not be keen on that versus actual, legally binding verbiage.

If that is the case, May's deal or no deal seem to be the last options. I am still of the opinion that Parliament won't allow a no deal to occur. Only the strident Brexiteers are ok with that, but they are a minority. So my guess is when push comes to shove, May's deal might finally slide through. Unless of course, Article 50 is extended.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 444 by PaulK, posted 01-30-2019 11:07 AM PaulK has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 447 by PaulK, posted 01-30-2019 12:14 PM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 14719
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 447 of 493 (847998)
01-30-2019 12:14 PM
Reply to: Message 446 by Diomedes
01-30-2019 11:45 AM


Re: May's Plan B
I don’t see the EU changing course without a substantial offer from May, and I don’t see May offering anything more than “change the backstop or No Deal”.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 446 by Diomedes, posted 01-30-2019 11:45 AM Diomedes has not yet responded

    
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 3764
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.3


Message 448 of 493 (848000)
01-30-2019 1:10 PM


As far as this "backstop" deal on Ireland goes what is the EU position, what is the British position, what are the reasonable options available, please?

Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

Replies to this message:
 Message 450 by PaulK, posted 01-30-2019 1:27 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply
 Message 451 by caffeine, posted 01-30-2019 1:37 PM AZPaul3 has responded

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1594
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 4.6


Message 449 of 493 (848002)
01-30-2019 1:21 PM
Reply to: Message 443 by Diomedes
01-30-2019 9:48 AM


Re: May's Plan B
Based on the latest voting in Parliament, it appears 'No Deal' has been 'officially' taken off the table. I can't say for certain if that is binding or not

It's not. It's an advisory opinion with no legislative force, and thus is irrelevant. Parliament did not vote for anything. They voted that there should be an non-specified alternative arrangement to the backstop agreement. The EU has made it clear there isn't one. Even substantive vote for something lost.

No deal it is, then.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 443 by Diomedes, posted 01-30-2019 9:48 AM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 14719
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 450 of 493 (848003)
01-30-2019 1:27 PM
Reply to: Message 448 by AZPaul3
01-30-2019 1:10 PM


The EU position is that it stays as negotiated. It’s part of the deal and it’s the best option they found in the negotiations.

The hardline Brexiteers want a strict time limit or the right to pull out unilaterally - without an alternative having been found.

Parliament narrowly voted for demanding an alternative now, because May decided to make a concession to the hardliners. Nobody has said anything about what that alternative might be.

The least unreasonable option (apart from cancelling Brexit) is to go for a Customs Union now (no need for a backstop then). That might get through Parliament but the Tories would implode (when the hardliners explode).

Sadly the next best thing is May’s deal, with the backstop. Which amounts to a temporary Customs Union until an alternative is found (I think that the hardliners realise that that is really, really difficult - although they say otherwise - and that is why they object to the backstop)

Sticking a border in the Irish Sea solves a lot of the problems but the DUP would explode and a lot of the Tories wouldn’t like it either.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 448 by AZPaul3, posted 01-30-2019 1:10 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
 Message 452 by Diomedes, posted 01-30-2019 1:50 PM PaulK has not yet responded

    
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