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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
caffeine
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Posts: 1699
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.7


(2)
Message 451 of 771 (848004)
01-30-2019 1:37 PM
Reply to: Message 448 by AZPaul3
01-30-2019 1:10 PM


As far as this "backstop" deal on Ireland goes what is the EU position, what is the British position, what are the reasonable options available, please?

The EU position is that an open border with the EU requires the country on the other side to conform to certain EU market regulations; to prevent unfair competition or the importation of goods that don't meet legal requirements of the European common market. There are many ways to achieve this.

First, the UK could stay in the European Economic Area (like Norway). The British government has ruled this out since it's very much like being in the EU without voting rights, and would require the continuation of free movement.

Second, the UK could remain in the customs union while being outside the EU - like Turkey or some of the European microstates. The British government has ruled this out because if would limit the ability of Britain to negotiate tariff agreements independently with third nations.

Third, the UK could come to some sort of separate, bilateral trade agreement like Switzerland did - but an agreement acceptable to the EU would break many of the same redlines as the previous suggestions (Switzerland accepts free movement, for example).

The backstop idea was essentially that Northern Ireland would remain in the customs union unless and until some other idea occurs to someone - meaning there would be customs checks imposed between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Parliament has rejected this idea.

The British government's current position is that we should solve this problem by... er... look! A blimp! /me runs away


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Diomedes
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Posts: 902
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 452 of 771 (848005)
01-30-2019 1:50 PM
Reply to: Message 450 by PaulK
01-30-2019 1:27 PM


Sadly the next best thing is May’s deal, with the backstop. Which amounts to a temporary Customs Union until an alternative is found (I think that the hardliners realise that that is really, really difficult - although they say otherwise - and that is why they object to the backstop)

Sticking a border in the Irish Sea solves a lot of the problems but the DUP would explode and a lot of the Tories wouldn’t like it either.

What fascinates me with the whole Irish border situation is that the UK government seemed to be completely clueless as to the fact that this is something that would need to be mitigated carefully. They must have known from the get go that the moment Article 50 was triggered, they would need to come up with a viable plan to accommodate an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland while ensuring they could complete Brexit on time. But I get the distinct impression that they just assumed they could 'fudge' it or they seemed oblivious to how difficult it would be. I found that whole situation to be totally mishandled from the start.

Or as Tangle would say: Buggers Muddle!!


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PaulK
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Posts: 15370
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 453 of 771 (848007)
01-30-2019 2:11 PM
Reply to: Message 451 by caffeine
01-30-2019 1:37 PM


quote:

The backstop idea was essentially that Northern Ireland would remain in the customs union unless and until some other idea occurs to someone - meaning there would be customs checks imposed between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Parliament has rejected this idea.

The final version is that the backstop applies to the whole of the U.K. - except for some regulatory alignment. Probably to try to keep it acceptable to the DUP - but it didn’t work.


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AZPaul3
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Posts: 4504
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 454 of 771 (848008)
01-30-2019 2:12 PM
Reply to: Message 451 by caffeine
01-30-2019 1:37 PM


The British government's current position is that we should solve this problem by... er... look! A blimp! /me runs away

Hmmm ... tricky.

Thank you, caffeine.

So what happens (in detail) if there is a no-deal hard Brexit?

Do British goods stop flowing into the EU and vice-versa? Are all services contracts then null and void? Do I need my passport to fly from London to Paris? Close the Chunnel? Blockade Amsterdam? Stop all traffic at the Irish border? Shoot down the blimp?


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

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Diomedes
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Posts: 902
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


(1)
Message 455 of 771 (848011)
01-30-2019 2:19 PM
Reply to: Message 454 by AZPaul3
01-30-2019 2:12 PM


Do British goods stop flowing into the EU and vice-versa?

Technically not. But the UK would now have to revert to WTO rules regarding trade. Which would mean tariffs would come into play.

Are all services contracts then null and void?

Don't think so. But that may depend on the circumstances of each particular agreement. Some I think were jointly signed as overarching deals involving the EU as a whole. The UK would likely need to start renegotiating any trade deals with non-EU nations as well as re-evaluate existing EU specific deals.

Do I need my passport to fly from London to Paris?

Yes.

Close the Chunnel?

No, but there would now need to be border checks.

Blockade Amsterdam?

Probably a bad idea. If the UK does do a hard Brexit, my suspicion is there will be a surge in imports of some good ganja in order to soften the blow.

Stop all traffic at the Irish border?

Technically, that would occur. But that would violate the Good Friday agreement. Hence the quagmire. (Buggers Muddle)

Shoot down the blimp?

If someone can get a clear shot at Boris, that may happen.


This message is a reply to:
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AZPaul3
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Posts: 4504
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 456 of 771 (848033)
01-30-2019 7:55 PM
Reply to: Message 455 by Diomedes
01-30-2019 2:19 PM


But the UK would now have to revert to WTO rules regarding trade.

That's gonna hurt. But, ok, it's only money, right? Like hundreds of billions of quatloos or whatever it is you use over there.

What was that?
Pounds?
As in getting pounded all to hell and back.

You know that's gonna hurt bad.

Which would mean tariffs would come into play.

Both way, of course. Yeah, that's gonna hurt.

The UK would likely need to start renegotiating any trade deals with non-EU nations as well as re-evaluate existing EU specific deals.

I'm sure the lawyers would love it. Think of all the litigation that's going to bloom from this.

Do I need my passport to fly from London to Paris?
Yes.

Well, I guess I didn't want to go anyway. The EU and Brit counterparts to our customs (and border patrol) are going to have to expand and probably not quickly enough to forestall some disruptions like backing up ports of entry several countries deep.

Yeah, that'll hurt.

Close the Chunnel?
No, but there would now need to be border checks.

Some new construction, significant delays until they all get their act together. I understand the Chunnel is a happening place. Can it be closed for a couple years?

If the UK does do a hard Brexit, my suspicion is there will be a surge in imports of some good ganja in order to soften the blow.

I always wanted to visit London. I'll be right there.

Stop all traffic at the Irish border?

Technically, that would occur. But that would violate the Good Friday agreement. Hence the quagmire. (Buggers Muddle)

Yes. I remember.

No matter how this turns out the Irish people, all of them, are going to be pissed, aren't they.

That's gonna hurt.

Shoot down the blimp?

If someone can get a clear shot at Boris, that may happen.

Could it be that simple? Find the Kirwood Derby, put it on Her Majesty's Royal Head, add a strong brownian motion producer ... undignified for Her Majesty ... forget the whole thing.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 902
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


(1)
Message 457 of 771 (848056)
01-31-2019 9:05 AM
Reply to: Message 456 by AZPaul3
01-30-2019 7:55 PM


Yeah, that's gonna hurt.

I think that summarizes Brexit in a nutshell.

Could it be that simple? Find the Kirwood Derby, put it on Her Majesty's Royal Head, add a strong brownian motion producer ... undignified for Her Majesty ...

Yes, I think that may be unbecoming of a monarch.

I am actually wondering if somewhere, deep in the recesses of Buckingham Castle, the legendary sword Excalibur lies dormant. And if a hard Brexit becomes inevitable, the Queen procures the sword, gives it to the Duke of York, and then he shows up in Parliament and threatens to go all Braveheart on their assess if they don't resolve Brexit once and for all. Would certainly make for interesting theater.


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Percy
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Posts: 18842
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 458 of 771 (848060)
01-31-2019 9:56 AM


Another Referendum
Having another referendum wasn't mentioned in the last couple pages of posts, that I noticed. A week ago that was being mentioned as a possibility. Is this no longer true?

--Percy


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PaulK
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Posts: 15370
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 459 of 771 (848061)
01-31-2019 10:05 AM
Reply to: Message 458 by Percy
01-31-2019 9:56 AM


Re: Another Referendum
It’s only an option if enough MPs will back it. The pro-Brexit types, including May, are dead set against it. We’d need an extension now for it to make sense and May is against that, too.
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Tangle
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Posts: 7067
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 460 of 771 (848071)
01-31-2019 12:22 PM
Reply to: Message 458 by Percy
01-31-2019 9:56 AM


Re: Another Referendum
Percy writes:

Having another referendum wasn't mentioned in the last couple pages of posts, that I noticed. A week ago that was being mentioned as a possibility. Is this no longer true?

Depends.

If the EU give way and find a way to solve the Irish border problem, we'll get a deal.

If they hold tight, there's the possibility we'll automatically crash out on 29th March. But there's also the possibility that because Parliament say they won't allow that, that the only way to resolve the issue is to ask us whether we want the deal, no deal or stay in.

I think that's what the EU are shooting for - me too. It's not that high a possibility.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


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caffeine
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Posts: 1699
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 461 of 771 (848076)
01-31-2019 12:43 PM
Reply to: Message 456 by AZPaul3
01-30-2019 7:55 PM


Do I need my passport to fly from London to Paris?

Yes.

Well, I guess I didn't want to go anyway. The EU and Brit counterparts to our customs (and border patrol) are going to have to expand and probably not quickly enough to forestall some disruptions like backing up ports of entry several countries deep.

You already need a passport to fly from London to Paris. The UK is not part of the Schengen treaty; which is what guarantees open borders in the sense of the border just being a line you walk across with no security or checks. The UK has 'open borders' with the EU in the sense that there are no tarriffs and there is free movement - anyone who's legally in France can cross the Channel, but they still go through passport control. And for flying you need passports anyway for security reasons (or at least a state-issued ID).

UK and Ireland do have literally open borders in the sense of no checks (for now); but that's separate to Schengen.

That's not to say nothing will change with regards crossing the Channel, though. The contents of all them thousands of trucks that cross over every day will suddenly be subject to duties.


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Diomedes
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Posts: 902
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 462 of 771 (848102)
01-31-2019 2:14 PM
Reply to: Message 460 by Tangle
01-31-2019 12:22 PM


Re: Another Referendum
If the EU give way and find a way to solve the Irish border problem, we'll get a deal.

If they hold tight, there's the possibility we'll automatically crash out on 29th March. But there's also the possibility that because Parliament say they won't allow that, that the only way to resolve the issue is to ask us whether we want the deal, no deal or stay in.

Less likely, but Brexit has thrown enough curve balls that nothing should be discounted. At this point, May has direction from Parliament to broker some amendments to the deal. The EU ministers have stated many times that the current deal is the only deal. If they stand firm, May will have to return to Parliament with no concessions from the EU. At that point, if that occurs, my suspicion is they may vote to extend the Article 50 deadline to provide time to consider other options. The EU will likely grant that, although it isn't guaranteed. I think the upcoming EU elections may throw a wrench into that.

I am still of the opinion that the EU might be willing to provide some 'verbal reassurances' regarding the backstop and maybe might even put something vague into writing. That might be sufficient for Parliament. But judging by the stubbornness being showcased by politicians right now, they may still not be able to pass the existing deal.


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Tangle
Member
Posts: 7067
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 463 of 771 (848106)
01-31-2019 2:23 PM
Reply to: Message 462 by Diomedes
01-31-2019 2:14 PM


Re: Another Referendum
The most likely is a short extension - but that doesn't solve anything except allow a little more time for UK law to change to deal with a hard exit.

Words and waffle from the EU about intentions won't change anything in Parliament unless they have the force of law behind them. Unless, of course, Parliament simply caves in to Europe. It's a game of chicken.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 462 by Diomedes, posted 01-31-2019 2:14 PM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
PaulK
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Posts: 15370
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 464 of 771 (848108)
01-31-2019 2:28 PM
Reply to: Message 462 by Diomedes
01-31-2019 2:14 PM


Re: Another Referendum
I think that the real problem is that there is no acceptable solution to the Irish border.

If there was a way of keeping it open that would be acceptable to Parliament the EU would go for it. The point of the backstop is to give Britain time to come up with a solution and show it can work.


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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 902
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 465 of 771 (848114)
01-31-2019 2:48 PM
Reply to: Message 464 by PaulK
01-31-2019 2:28 PM


Re: Another Referendum
Tangle writes:

Words and waffle from the EU about intentions won't change anything in Parliament unless they have the force of law behind them. Unless, of course, Parliament simply caves in to Europe. It's a game of chicken.

The problem with playing chicken is when neither individual swerves. The end result is a crash.

PaulK writes:

I think that the real problem is that there is no acceptable solution to the Irish border.
If there was a way of keeping it open that would be acceptable to Parliament the EU would go for it. The point of the backstop is to give Britain time to come up with a solution and show it can work.

The only credible solution that I can think of is to use technology and transponders. If you made electronic gates and issued transponders to residents of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland that they could install in their cars, that could likely allow free flow of people in and out. Customs checks are a more difficult situation and it may be that trucks and cargo planes entering or leaving would require some sort of checking. Not perfect, but it would at least allow the border to be somewhat permeable.


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