Understanding through Discussion


Welcome! You are not logged in. [ Login ]
EvC Forum active members: 85 (8936 total)
40 online now:
Chatting now:  Chat room empty
Newest Member: ssope
Upcoming Birthdays: AdminPhat
Post Volume: Total: 861,627 Year: 16,663/19,786 Month: 788/2,598 Week: 34/251 Day: 11/23 Hour: 0/4


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 4504
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 466 of 771 (848117)
01-31-2019 3:05 PM


And to think this whole mess is because there are just too many brown-skinned people looking for a decent/safe life free of oppression both political and economic.

Poor Europe has to suffer being the beacon of freedom and opportunity to the Arabs just like the USA is to the Latinos of Central/South America.

Welcome to the world we made in our image.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1699
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 467 of 771 (848125)
01-31-2019 3:57 PM
Reply to: Message 464 by PaulK
01-31-2019 2:28 PM


Re: Another Referendum

I think that the real problem is that there is no acceptable solution to the Irish border.

If there was a way of keeping it open that would be acceptable to Parliament the EU would go for it. The point of the backstop is to give Britain time to come up with a solution and show it can work.

But this problem with that is who gets to decide when a solution has been reached. That's what stumped everything. You could have got a majority in Parliament for a backstop which the UK was allowed to end unilaterally; but the UK won't agree to that because it allows Britain to stop it without coming up with a solution acceptable to the rest of Europe.

Maybe, when drafting the Lisbon treaty, someone should have put some thought into how a country leaves the EU; rather than just clarifying a legal process allowing it to happen.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 464 by PaulK, posted 01-31-2019 2:28 PM PaulK has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 468 by PaulK, posted 01-31-2019 4:10 PM caffeine has not yet responded
 Message 469 by PaulK, posted 01-31-2019 4:13 PM caffeine has not yet responded
 Message 472 by AZPaul3, posted 02-01-2019 1:04 PM caffeine has responded

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 15370
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 468 of 771 (848126)
01-31-2019 4:10 PM
Reply to: Message 467 by caffeine
01-31-2019 3:57 PM


Re: Another Referendum
quote:

But this problem with that is who gets to decide when a solution has been reached

Each side gets to say if it is acceptable to them. You can object that one of them might be acting in bad faith, but it’s hard to find anything better.

Right now the ERG are only willing to accept their idea that technology and trusted trader schemes. And it is really questionable whether it will. Or how long it would take to get it working if it could work. The backstop gives them the chance to make a better case - hopefully including some trials of some sort. Just assuming that it is going to work, on the other hand leaves everyone with a problem. But that is all the ERG will accept.

The EU would be happy with a full Customs Union. They would probably accept limiting the backstop to Northern Ireland, with a border with the Irish Sea. But they aren’t going to accept a closed border in Ireland.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 467 by caffeine, posted 01-31-2019 3:57 PM caffeine has not yet responded

    
PaulK
Member
Posts: 15370
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 469 of 771 (848127)
01-31-2019 4:13 PM
Reply to: Message 467 by caffeine
01-31-2019 3:57 PM


Re: Another Referendum
quote:

Maybe, when drafting the Lisbon treaty, someone should have put some thought into how a country leaves the EU; rather than just clarifying a legal process allowing it to happen.

This is a separate point but the Irish border is a very special case - and May did commit to keeping it open. If Greece had pulled out I can’t imagine a similar problem.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 467 by caffeine, posted 01-31-2019 3:57 PM caffeine has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 470 by Diomedes, posted 02-01-2019 9:12 AM PaulK has responded

    
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 902
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 470 of 771 (848167)
02-01-2019 9:12 AM
Reply to: Message 469 by PaulK
01-31-2019 4:13 PM


Re: Another Referendum
This is a separate point but the Irish border is a very special case - and May did commit to keeping it open. If Greece had pulled out I can’t imagine a similar problem.

I'm also curious about Gibraltar. I know that's come up a few times in discussions, but seems to have been drowned out by the Irish border talks. Not sure if that has been resolved either.

One of the main problems that the UK is facing with Brexit is one of the core tenets of Leave was securing the border. If fact, it was probably the most important talking point from their side. So allowing any level of fluidity to any border in essence is violating the notions of Brexit.

As I mentioned before, I am honestly flabbergasted that this situation wasn't adequately planned for with regards to the UK government once Article 50 was triggered. These aren't stupid people. But the sense I get is that their solution is 'we will figure it out'. Well, its been two and a half years and nobody seems to have a tenable solution. That appears to be what makes the backstop so unpopular. Nobody knows how they will fix the issue with the Irish border. They just assume it will be done 'at some point'. Not exactly a resounding vote of confidence.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 469 by PaulK, posted 01-31-2019 4:13 PM PaulK has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 471 by PaulK, posted 02-01-2019 9:44 AM Diomedes has responded

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 15370
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 471 of 771 (848171)
02-01-2019 9:44 AM
Reply to: Message 470 by Diomedes
02-01-2019 9:12 AM


Re: Another Referendum
Gibraltar doesn’t have a long fiddly land border with the EU, nor a history of violent unrest with a substantial minority wanting reunification with Spain.

In short it’s much easier for the EU not to make waves about Gibraltar. I can’t say that will stay the case if May reopens negotiations and annoys the negotiators enough. At the least the Spanish might see it as an opportunity.

As I have mentioned earlier I saw this coming over a year ago. There is no obvious fix. The BBC has a story. At best a fix would take years to implement, if it worked.

May got the best deal the EU was prepared to offer, and it wasn’t good enough for the ERG.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 470 by Diomedes, posted 02-01-2019 9:12 AM Diomedes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 473 by Diomedes, posted 02-01-2019 1:12 PM PaulK has not yet responded
 Message 474 by caffeine, posted 02-01-2019 1:47 PM PaulK has not yet responded

    
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 4504
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 472 of 771 (848178)
02-01-2019 1:04 PM
Reply to: Message 467 by caffeine
01-31-2019 3:57 PM


Re: Another Referendum
but the UK won't agree to that because it allows Britain to stop it without coming up with a solution acceptable to the rest of Europe.

Is there any thought to maybe the EU, unhappy as they may be, might find it advantageous to work with Her Majesty’s government to smooth over an official Brexit, knowing full well Britain actually isn’t going anywhere economically and in a few election cycles they’ll be back officially as well?


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 467 by caffeine, posted 01-31-2019 3:57 PM caffeine has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 475 by caffeine, posted 02-01-2019 1:52 PM AZPaul3 has responded

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 902
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 473 of 771 (848179)
02-01-2019 1:12 PM
Reply to: Message 471 by PaulK
02-01-2019 9:44 AM


Re: Another Referendum
As I have mentioned earlier I saw this coming over a year ago. There is no obvious fix. The BBC has a story. At best a fix would take years to implement, if it worked.

Thanks for the link. The story seems to allude to the same kinds of technological border solutions we've all brought up on this thread already. So as before, I am somewhat surprised the UK government hasn't taken more steps to already begin work on such a solution. It would go a long way towards alleviating concerns about the backstop if they had some sort of strategy on how they would handle a 'soft border', using technology along with estimates as to how long it would take to implement. That would certainly be more favorable to the kicking the can down the road and 'we'll figure it out' approach they have taken up to this point.

Regarding Gibraltar, well, one problem at a time I guess.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 471 by PaulK, posted 02-01-2019 9:44 AM PaulK has not yet responded

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1699
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 474 of 771 (848182)
02-01-2019 1:47 PM
Reply to: Message 471 by PaulK
02-01-2019 9:44 AM


Re: Another Referendum
Gibraltar doesn’t have a long fiddly land border with the EU, nor a history of violent unrest with a substantial minority wanting reunification with Spain.

In short it’s much easier for the EU not to make waves about Gibraltar. I can’t say that will stay the case if May reopens negotiations and annoys the negotiators enough. At the least the Spanish might see it as an opportunity.

Gibraltar is a much simpler issue. The idea of Gibraltar having a different status to the UK is a totally different one to N. Ireland having a different status to Britain, since Gibraltar already has a different status. It's not part of the UK, it's not in the EU customs union, and the border with Spain is not open; so these vexing questions do not arise.

Despite a few belligerent voices in Spain, the Spanish government has rather sensibly agreed that they will treat negotiations on the status of Gibraltar as separate from the UK withdrawal agreement; so it's not holding anything up like the Irish border question is.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 471 by PaulK, posted 02-01-2019 9:44 AM PaulK has not yet responded

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1699
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 475 of 771 (848184)
02-01-2019 1:52 PM
Reply to: Message 472 by AZPaul3
02-01-2019 1:04 PM


Re: Another Referendum
Is there any thought to maybe the EU, unhappy as they may be, might find it advantageous to work with Her Majesty’s government to smooth over an official Brexit, knowing full well Britain actually isn’t going anywhere economically and in a few election cycles they’ll be back officially as well?

I think there is little chance of Britain rejoining the EU in the forseeable future. After all the rigmarole involved in leaving, at least a generation or two needs to pass. Who knows if the EU will even still be here by then?

Edited by caffeine, : Contradictory and redundant sentence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 472 by AZPaul3, posted 02-01-2019 1:04 PM AZPaul3 has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 476 by AZPaul3, posted 02-01-2019 2:24 PM caffeine has not yet responded
 Message 481 by Diomedes, posted 02-07-2019 1:29 PM caffeine has not yet responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 4504
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 476 of 771 (848185)
02-01-2019 2:24 PM
Reply to: Message 475 by caffeine
02-01-2019 1:52 PM


Re: Another Referendum
Who knows if the EU will even still be here by then?

Why should anyone think The EU, or whatever its evolved form may call itself, won't continue to thrive within such a strong economic zone?

But, I was thinking more short term.

Just for jollies, let's say the Brits hold another referendum and Remain-Like-Nothing-Happened-We-Don't-Wanna-Go-We're-Sorry wins the day.

Discount the gloom and doom revolt and rebel crowd, which can cause damage but can be overcome.

What's Europe going to do ... say, "No"?


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 475 by caffeine, posted 02-01-2019 1:52 PM caffeine has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 477 by Tangle, posted 02-01-2019 4:25 PM AZPaul3 has responded

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 7067
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 477 of 771 (848201)
02-01-2019 4:25 PM
Reply to: Message 476 by AZPaul3
02-01-2019 2:24 PM


Re: Another Referendum
AZP writes:

What's Europe going to do ... say, "No"?

The EU doesn't say anything, the UK just asks for their letter back and it's like nothing happened.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 476 by AZPaul3, posted 02-01-2019 2:24 PM AZPaul3 has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 478 by AZPaul3, posted 02-01-2019 5:47 PM Tangle has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 4504
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 478 of 771 (848219)
02-01-2019 5:47 PM
Reply to: Message 477 by Tangle
02-01-2019 4:25 PM


Re: Another Referendum
Good. Then why don't you all go do that ...

I know, I know ... racism and the fears that go with it. Specifically economic fears. The drain on resources, pressure on jobs and job values. Yeah, ok, cultural differences that outside the extremes are, well, just different.

I know. We have the same thing here ... on steroids.

Makes things difficult to get to where some of us would like to see society evolve.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 477 by Tangle, posted 02-01-2019 4:25 PM Tangle has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 479 by Tangle, posted 02-01-2019 5:53 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 7067
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.8


(1)
Message 479 of 771 (848221)
02-01-2019 5:53 PM
Reply to: Message 478 by AZPaul3
02-01-2019 5:47 PM


Re: Another Referendum
AZP writes:

Good. Then why don't you all go do that ...

I reckon if they asked us again we might.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 478 by AZPaul3, posted 02-01-2019 5:47 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 4504
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 480 of 771 (848245)
02-01-2019 9:41 PM
Reply to: Message 457 by Diomedes
01-31-2019 9:05 AM


And if a hard Brexit becomes inevitable, the Queen procures the sword, gives it to the Duke of York, and then he shows up in Parliament and threatens to go all Braveheart on their assess if they don't resolve Brexit once and for all.

Now seeing that might be worth the controversy.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 457 by Diomedes, posted 01-31-2019 9:05 AM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2018 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.0 Beta
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2019