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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 799
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 481 of 493 (848497)
02-07-2019 1:29 PM
Reply to: Message 475 by caffeine
02-01-2019 1:52 PM


Re: Another Referendum
I think there is little chance of Britain rejoining the EU in the forseeable future. After all the rigmarole involved in leaving, at least a generation or two needs to pass. Who knows if the EU will even still be here by then?

If Brexit occurs, I think at some point, Britain will eventually rejoin the EU. Unless Brexit actually does turn out to be a net positive in the long run. Personally, I doubt that would be the case. But you never know.

Regarding the EU, despite the issues of late, I actually think it will survive just fine. The EU, like any new political and socio-economic endeavor, is going through some growing pains. That isn't unusual. The United Kingdom itself dealt with internal strife for many generations before things calmed down. The USA had plenty of issues including a civil war. But it also survived. Maybe I am a cockeyed optimist, but I generally believe that things sort themselves out eventually.


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 Message 475 by caffeine, posted 02-01-2019 1:52 PM caffeine has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 482 by Percy, posted 02-08-2019 12:36 AM Diomedes has responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 18262
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 482 of 493 (848501)
02-08-2019 12:36 AM
Reply to: Message 481 by Diomedes
02-07-2019 1:29 PM


Re: Another Referendum
Optimism is nice, and if things don’t eventually sort themselves out they do at least settle down, but those who died in the Civil War or WWI or WWII or Vietnam or the troubles or the African famines or the Congolian rebellion or whatever are still dead. Wrong choices do have consequences, sometimes dire ones, and the thought should lend some urgency to getting things right.

—Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 481 by Diomedes, posted 02-07-2019 1:29 PM Diomedes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 483 by Diomedes, posted 02-08-2019 10:19 AM Percy has responded

    
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 799
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.4


(1)
Message 483 of 493 (848514)
02-08-2019 10:19 AM
Reply to: Message 482 by Percy
02-08-2019 12:36 AM


Re: Another Referendum
Optimism is nice, and if things don’t eventually sort themselves out they do at least settle down, but those who died in the Civil War or WWI or WWII or Vietnam or the troubles or the African famines or the Congolian rebellion or whatever are still dead. Wrong choices do have consequences, sometimes dire ones, and the thought should lend some urgency to getting things right.

The problem is hindsight is often 20/20. So despite indicators in the present, it isn't always easy to tell how good or bad a decision might be until after the fact. Consider the American Revolution. My suspicion is every economic indicator and every naysayer at that time would have stated it was a terrible decision to break away from Britain. Yet that actually turned out ok.

When Neville Chamberlain was performing an appeasement policy with Germany, the notion was to avoid war at all costs. Most pundits were in agreement with him and they actually vilified Churchill for being a 'warmonger'. Yet we all know how that turned out.

Generally, the universe unfolds as it should. But good/bad decisions are often not quite as obvious as one might think. And that perceptions and politics can often skew reality one way or the other.


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 Message 482 by Percy, posted 02-08-2019 12:36 AM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 484 by Percy, posted 02-08-2019 5:17 PM Diomedes has responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 18262
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 484 of 493 (848540)
02-08-2019 5:17 PM
Reply to: Message 483 by Diomedes
02-08-2019 10:19 AM


Re: Another Referendum
Diomedes writes:

The problem is hindsight is often 20/20.

Foresight is often pretty good, too. A united Europe is a more prosperous and peaceful Europe, and a Britain within the EU is better off than a Britain without. A general, optimistic and unspecific, "But one never knows what will happen and it could turn out fine in the end," seems to ignore what we do know. You could look at the prosperous Europe of today and say, "See, WWI and WWII turned out fine in the end," but that wouldn't be true. It is evidence only of human resilience in the face of unspeakable calamity.

Churchill's foresight was correct that appeasement would only delay war with Germany under less advantageous conditions. Had Hitler been contained we would not have the Europe we have today, but we might have a better Europe, especially since Eastern Europe wouldn't have spent 45 years under communism and wouldn't be nearly devoid of their Jewish populations, the Soviet Union might never have emerged as a world power, the cold war might never have happened, and there might not be a communist country off your state's southern coast.

Generally, the universe unfolds as it should.

Isn't that the same thing as, "Whatever happens happens"?

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 483 by Diomedes, posted 02-08-2019 10:19 AM Diomedes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 485 by Diomedes, posted 02-09-2019 10:55 AM Percy has responded

    
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 799
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 485 of 493 (848555)
02-09-2019 10:55 AM
Reply to: Message 484 by Percy
02-08-2019 5:17 PM


Re: Another Referendum
Foresight is often pretty good, too. A united Europe is a more prosperous and peaceful Europe, and a Britain within the EU is better off than a Britain without. A general, optimistic and unspecific, "But one never knows what will happen and it could turn out fine in the end," seems to ignore what we do know.

Foresight is good, but imperfect. What is the old adage: "The road to hell is paved by good intentions." We as humans, are flawed. We are prone to bias and we often don't have all the facts provided to us due to political wrangling whereby narratives are controlled. And this occurs on both sides of the aisle. So where one side might tout the benefits of Brexit and a sovereign UK, the other will state the pitfalls of isolation. Who is right? Well, that is something we will have to find out. Because ultimately, as per my examples, foresight can be good, but it is imperfect. And often, the true reality is skewed by media pundits that have views one way or the other and the politicians who have their own self interests.

Isn't that the same thing as, "Whatever happens happens"?

Not exactly. Whatever happens, happens implies there is no control over the scenario. But as stated, we make decisions that may improve or undermine our situation. But reality will eventually lead us to that point where society attempts to minimize pitfalls while maximizing benefits. Otherwise, our societies would have collapsed a long time ago.


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 Message 484 by Percy, posted 02-08-2019 5:17 PM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 486 by Percy, posted 02-10-2019 7:57 AM Diomedes has responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 18262
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 486 of 493 (848566)
02-10-2019 7:57 AM
Reply to: Message 485 by Diomedes
02-09-2019 10:55 AM


Re: Another Referendum
Diomedes writes:

Foresight is good, but imperfect.

People are imperfect, so hindsight and foresight are both imperfect. Neither are 20/20, and it depends upon the subject.

Since we know from hindsight that free trade and open borders are better than the alternatives, we therefore have the foresight to know that abandoning them is bad. And we also know from hindsight and are therefore forewarned (to return to the example upon which you did not comment) that peace is better than war, and that a world where WWI and WWII had never happened would leave us a different Europe but an undoubtedly better Europe, not to mention a better Middle East with no Israel, at least not as we know it today. These cannot be dismissed with, "We cannot know for sure what would have happened." Ruin, devastation and death on an unthinkable scale are always worse.

Percy writes:

Diomedes writes:

Generally, the universe unfolds as it should.

Isn't that the same thing as, "Whatever happens, happens"?

Not exactly. Whatever happens, happens implies there is no control over the scenario.

"The universe unfolds as it should" implies a plan, not control, and it doesn't even really imply a plan since it's just looking backward and saying, "Well I guess that's the way it was supposed to happen" without having any idea if that is the case or not. Death and pestilence and slavery and suffering and wars are not the universe generally unfolding as it should.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 485 by Diomedes, posted 02-09-2019 10:55 AM Diomedes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 487 by Diomedes, posted 02-10-2019 11:04 AM Percy has responded

    
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 799
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 487 of 493 (848570)
02-10-2019 11:04 AM
Reply to: Message 486 by Percy
02-10-2019 7:57 AM


Re: Another Referendum
Since we know from hindsight that free trade and open borders are better than the alternatives, we therefore have the foresight to know that abandoning them is bad. And we also know from hindsight and are therefore forewarned (to return to the example upon which you did not comment) that peace is better than war, and that a world where WWI and WWII had never happened would leave us a different Europe but an undoubtedly better Europe, not to mention a better Middle East with no Israel, at least not as we know it today. These cannot be dismissed with, "We cannot know for sure what would have happened." Ruin, devastation and death on an unthinkable scale are always worse.

The inability of accurately predicting what the world would look like or how Europe would currently look is precisely the point as to why foresight isn't an accurate predictor. You can find many individuals who indicate that free trade isn't all its cracked up to be. That it is undermined by specific protectionist measures utilized by various countries.
Peace is better than war, but the decisions leading to war are not always well thought out. As mentioned, the British sought peace at all costs in the lead up to WWII. And the end result was having to deal with a far more dire scenario with a more robust and rearmed Germany. So one can state that the decision to seek peace at all costs in that situation undermined the long term stability of Europe.
Regarding the Middle East, they have been in a civil war for our a thousand years. Shia versus Sunni is not a modern phenomenon any more than Protestant and Catholic. So there are no guarantees one way or the other how the Middle East would have turned out. Had WWI and WWII not occurred, the world's thirst for oil would still persist. And various powerful nations would still be vying for control over the region regardless.

"The universe unfolds as it should" implies a plan, not control, and it doesn't even really imply a plan since it's just looking backward and saying, "Well I guess that's the way it was supposed to happen" without having any idea if that is the case or not. Death and pestilence and slavery and suffering and wars are not the universe generally unfolding as it should.

What I am implying is no plan, but the tendency for things to sort themselves out because it is in the inherent best interest of society and the species that situations get resolved and that the best of breed solution comes to the forefront. It's essential societal evolution. As with natural selection, mutations occur. But the bad ones weed themselves out while the good ones persist because it allows the organism to survive and thrive. But it isn't always as obvious as one might think with regards to which mutations will benefit. And the same can be said with societal evolution. Despite predilections one way or the other, circumstances, some of which are unpredictable, may result in outcomes that are far worse even when one was approaching the problem with the best of intentions.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 486 by Percy, posted 02-10-2019 7:57 AM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 488 by Percy, posted 02-10-2019 12:51 PM Diomedes has responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 18262
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 488 of 493 (848572)
02-10-2019 12:51 PM
Reply to: Message 487 by Diomedes
02-10-2019 11:04 AM


Re: Another Referendum
Diomedes writes:

The inability of accurately predicting what the world would look like or how Europe would currently look is precisely the point as to why foresight isn't an accurate predictor.

"War bad, peace good" is a pretty good predictor.

Peace is better than war, but the decisions leading to war are not always well thought out. As mentioned, the British sought peace at all costs in the lead up to WWII.

"Capitulation bad" is also a pretty good predictor.

Regarding the Middle East, they have been in a civil war for our a thousand years. Shia versus Sunni is not a modern phenomenon any more than Protestant and Catholic. So there are no guarantees one way or the other how the Middle East would have turned out. Had WWI and WWII not occurred, the world's thirst for oil would still persist. And various powerful nations would still be vying for control over the region regardless.

This is just the "There will always be wars so no course of action is better than another" argument. I reject the premise. For example, a united Europe means Germany is a productive contributing member of a community instead of an engine of discord and war. Some actions are inherently better than others because they have better outcomes that are foreseeable.

You seem to be making an argument parallel to the creationists, that because some things cannot be foreseen or at least not foreseen in detail that therefore nothing can be foreseen.

What I am implying is no plan, but the tendency for things to sort themselves out because it is in the inherent best interest of society and the species that situations get resolved and that the best of breed solution comes to the forefront.

You're repeating yourself, so I will, too. You could look at the prosperous Europe of today and say, "See, WWI and WWII turned out fine in the end," but that wouldn't be true. It is evidence only of human resilience in the face of unspeakable calamity. Sure, things "sorted themselves out" I suppose, if that's what you want to call it, but that doesn't make WWI and WWII good things. And we knew that going in. "The lights are going out all over Europe," wasn't spoken by someone with mistaken foresight.

--Percy

Edited by Percy, : Capitalization.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 487 by Diomedes, posted 02-10-2019 11:04 AM Diomedes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 489 by Diomedes, posted 02-11-2019 9:20 AM Percy has responded
 Message 491 by Taq, posted 02-11-2019 5:48 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

    
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 799
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 489 of 493 (848585)
02-11-2019 9:20 AM
Reply to: Message 488 by Percy
02-10-2019 12:51 PM


Re: Another Referendum
Sure, things "sorted themselves out" I suppose, if that's what you want to call it, but that doesn't make WWI and WWII good things. And we knew that going in.

And that is ultimately the point I am making. That in the end, human resilience triumphed in the face of adversary. That's the only point I was making with the "universe unfolds as it should" statement. Which ironically, wasn't meant to offend in any way. I was attempting to provide reassurance to those in the UK and Europe.

Pertaining to 'war bad, peace good'. Sure. I can state that is likely accurate. But to avoid derailing the Brexit thread, the notion that Brexit will 'for sure' be bad might not be as cut and dry. Indicators seem to lean towards that notion. But as we know, metrics and predictors are not always foolproof. Many indicators showed that the UK would enter a recession if Leave won. That didn't happen. Not to say it won't happen.

Ultimately, since I would like to keep this thread on topic, maybe you can state what exactly you feel would be the appropriate next steps for the UK to take?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 488 by Percy, posted 02-10-2019 12:51 PM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 490 by Percy, posted 02-11-2019 10:11 AM Diomedes has not yet responded
 Message 492 by Diomedes, posted 02-12-2019 11:50 AM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 18262
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 490 of 493 (848586)
02-11-2019 10:11 AM
Reply to: Message 489 by Diomedes
02-11-2019 9:20 AM


Re: Another Referendum
Diomedes writes:

And that is ultimately the point I am making. That in the end, human resilience triumphed in the face of adversary. That's the only point I was making with the "universe unfolds as it should" statement. Which ironically, wasn't meant to offend in any way. I was attempting to provide reassurance to those in the UK and Europe.

Sure, human resilience has been the foundation of recovery from all types of calamity, so human resilience is a constant. What isn't a constant is the number and degree of calamities we suffer, and the greater our foresight in avoiding or reducing the impact of these calamities the better off we'll be.

Pertaining to 'war bad, peace good'. Sure. I can state that is likely accurate. But to avoid derailing the Brexit thread, the notion that Brexit will 'for sure' be bad might not be as cut and dry.

That it absolutely is cut and dried is the most important point. Joining together into larger and larger political and economic units is the way we avoid the human impulse of "Same as us: good; Not same as us: bad" that is the cause of so much conflict and war. That, fundamentally and very briefly, is why "EU: good; Not-EU: bad."

Ultimately, since I would like to keep this thread on topic, maybe you can state what exactly you feel would be the appropriate next steps for the UK to take?

I wouldn't pretend to have any suggestions for how Britain can extricate itself from its current mess. The best outcome would be remaining in the EU.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 489 by Diomedes, posted 02-11-2019 9:20 AM Diomedes has not yet responded

    
Taq
Member
Posts: 7670
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 4.2


Message 491 of 493 (848601)
02-11-2019 5:48 PM
Reply to: Message 488 by Percy
02-10-2019 12:51 PM


Re: Another Referendum
Percy writes:

This is just the "There will always be wars so no course of action is better than another" argument. I reject the premise. For example, a united Europe means Germany is a productive contributing member of a community instead of an engine of discord and war. Some actions are inherently better than others because they have better outcomes that are foreseeable.

I would argue that people in First World countries have more to lose than at any time in history. People don't want to go more than 1 day without an internet connection, for crying out loud. We depend on so much infrastructure for our day to day lives and luxuries, and a war would rip all of those things away. People don't want to live like they did in pre-WWII Europe, much less Europe during and right after WWII.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 488 by Percy, posted 02-10-2019 12:51 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 799
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 492 of 493 (848634)
02-12-2019 11:50 AM
Reply to: Message 489 by Diomedes
02-11-2019 9:20 AM


May's Negotiations - The Latest
quote:
Theresa May has promised MPs a final, decisive vote on her Brexit deal with the EU - but not until she has secured changes to the Irish backstop clause.

The PM said she needed "some time" to get the changes she believes MPs want.

She promised to update MPs again on 26 February and, if she had not got a new deal by then, to give them a say on the next steps in non-binding votes.

Jeremy Corbyn accused her of "running down the clock" in an effort to "blackmail" MPs into backing her deal.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47206286

The Bank of England governor, Mark Carney is definitely voicing the fact that this continued delaying of a Brexit resolution is increasing the uncertainty from an economic perspective.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 489 by Diomedes, posted 02-11-2019 9:20 AM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 3764
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.3


Message 493 of 493 (849011)
02-20-2019 11:56 PM


If you haven't seen it this is hilarious, and scary.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

  
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