Understanding through Discussion


Welcome! You are not logged in. [ Login ]
EvC Forum active members: 83 (8942 total)
32 online now:
AZPaul3, DrJones*, dwise1, Faith, jar, Percy (Admin) (6 members, 26 visitors)
Chatting now:  Chat room empty
Newest Member: John Sullivan
Happy Birthday: Anish
Post Volume: Total: 863,465 Year: 18,501/19,786 Month: 921/1,705 Week: 173/518 Day: 47/52 Hour: 0/4


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
ringo
Member
Posts: 17403
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 571 of 783 (850240)
04-04-2019 11:52 AM
Reply to: Message 570 by caffeine
04-04-2019 3:42 AM


caffeine writes:

Which logo do you have on the obverse?


I didn't keep it but as I recall (and looking it up in Wikipedia) it was probably the Austrian version with an edelweiss.

And our geese will blot out the sun.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 570 by caffeine, posted 04-04-2019 3:42 AM caffeine has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 572 by caffeine, posted 04-04-2019 12:51 PM ringo has acknowledged this reply

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1702
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.9


(1)
Message 572 of 783 (850242)
04-04-2019 12:51 PM
Reply to: Message 571 by ringo
04-04-2019 11:52 AM


I didn't keep it but as I recall (and looking it up in Wikipedia) it was probably the Austrian version with an edelweiss.

I like the ones that make you guess where it's from. Some are really dull. ie:

Just in case you didn't recognise the weird stylised profile, we're gonna bung the Queen's name and the name of the country on in big letters. Where's the fun?

Others make the country name a little less obvious:

but once you've learnt that the RI logo is Republicca Italiana there's no more fun.

Austria's are some of my favourites - much more subtle. They all incorporate a flag design but it doesn't always leap at you without colour. They sometimes use heads, and then you're struggling to think what the Grand Duke of Luxembourg looks like before you realise that it's a famous historical figure from Austria.

Finland makes some of my favourites though:



This message is a reply to:
 Message 571 by ringo, posted 04-04-2019 11:52 AM ringo has acknowledged this reply

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 910
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 573 of 783 (850278)
04-05-2019 9:45 AM


UK asks EU for another extension until June 30
quote:
Theresa May has written to the European Union to request a further delay to Brexit until 30 June.

The UK is currently due to leave the EU on 12 April and, as yet, no withdrawal deal has been approved by MPs.

The prime minister has proposed that if UK MPs approve a deal in time, the UK should be able to leave before European Parliamentary elections on 23 May.

But she said the UK would prepare to field candidates in those elections in case no agreement is reached.

It is up to the EU whether to grant an extension to Article 50, the legal process through which the UK is leaving the EU, after MPs repeatedly rejected the withdrawal agreement reached between the UK and the bloc.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47825841

Not sure how this will play out. Donald Tusk is apparently urging for a longer extension with a provision to leave earlier if needed. It seems to me that May is still playing the same game: trying to run down the clock to the point where her deal is the only option left.

Interestingly, there will also be no more indicative votes on alternatives for Brexit. They voted on whether they should continue doing indicative votes and it ended with a tie in parliament: 310-310. The speaker then broke the tie and voted with the noes.

So as it stands, May is now meeting with Corbyn to see if they can hash out some compromise to her deal, which likely means having a customs union as part of the solution. This more or less solves the Irish border problem and would negate the need for the backstop. Hardline Brexiteers obviously don't like it because it keeps the UK too closely aligned with the EU. But it appears to be the only way forward.


Replies to this message:
 Message 574 by caffeine, posted 04-05-2019 12:53 PM Diomedes has not yet responded
 Message 575 by PaulK, posted 04-05-2019 1:07 PM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1702
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 574 of 783 (850290)
04-05-2019 12:53 PM
Reply to: Message 573 by Diomedes
04-05-2019 9:45 AM


Re: UK asks EU for another extension until June 30
Interestingly, there will also be no more indicative votes on alternatives for Brexit. They voted on whether they should continue doing indicative votes and it ended with a tie in parliament: 310-310. The speaker then broke the tie and voted with the noes.

Fun fact - this is the first tie in the Commons since 1993. That tie (317-317) was a vote on the Maastricht Treaty!

The EU really is a topic that seems to divide people.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 573 by Diomedes, posted 04-05-2019 9:45 AM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 15439
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 575 of 783 (850291)
04-05-2019 1:07 PM
Reply to: Message 573 by Diomedes
04-05-2019 9:45 AM


Re: UK asks EU for another extension until June 30
Keir Starmer - Labour’s Brexit guy - reports that the Government ministers aren’t offering any changes. Which pretty much sinks any chance of a cross party deal.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 573 by Diomedes, posted 04-05-2019 9:45 AM Diomedes has not yet responded

    
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 910
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 576 of 783 (850616)
04-11-2019 9:01 AM


Brexit deadline moved to October 31st
quote:
European Union leaders have granted the UK a six-month extension to Brexit, after late-night talks in Brussels.

The new deadline - 31 October - averts the prospect of the UK having to leave the EU without a deal on Friday, as MPs are still deadlocked over a deal.

European Council President Donald Tusk said his "message to British friends" was "please do not waste this time".

Theresa May, who had wanted a shorter delay, said the UK would still aim to leave the EU as soon as possible.

The UK must now hold European elections in May, or leave on 1 June without a deal.

The prime minister will later make a statement on the Brussels summit to the House of Commons, while talks with the Labour Party, aimed at reaching consensus on how to handle Brexit, are set to continue.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47889404

I wonder if there is any symbolism in the fact that the new deadline is Halloween.


  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 6658
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 4.2


Message 577 of 783 (850619)
04-11-2019 10:06 AM
Reply to: Message 564 by Diomedes
04-02-2019 12:25 PM


Re: Jonathan Pie on Brexit
Substitute trump for brexit and the rant almost fits for the US.

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 564 by Diomedes, posted 04-02-2019 12:25 PM Diomedes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 578 by Diomedes, posted 04-25-2019 9:09 AM Theodoric has not yet responded

    
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 910
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.9


(3)
Message 578 of 783 (851467)
04-25-2019 9:09 AM
Reply to: Message 577 by Theodoric
04-11-2019 10:06 AM


Another Jonathan Pie rant on Brexit

My favorite line:
"May's been flip flopping more than a dying trout; which for her is actually quite a flattering visual comparison."


This message is a reply to:
 Message 577 by Theodoric, posted 04-11-2019 10:06 AM Theodoric has not yet responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 4634
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.5


Message 579 of 783 (852465)
05-11-2019 7:34 PM


Is that right? Brexit Party polling at 30%+?

That's a lot of people that still want to leave despite all the downsides raveled in the last few years.

Well, the will of the people and all that.

(ABE) source Thank you Percy.

The 30%+ number was for the European elections.

quote:
The Opinium survey for the Observer places the Brexit party on 34%, when people were asked how they intended to vote on 23 May, with Labour slipping to 21% and the Conservatives collapsing to just 11%

Later in the piece was the poll for a British general election.

quote:
The Opinium poll also makes grim reading for the Tories and Labour when voters were asked how they would vote at a general election. Labour is on 28%, while the Tories are on 22%, just one point ahead of the Brexit party on 21%.

Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

Replies to this message:
 Message 580 by Percy, posted 05-12-2019 8:35 AM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 18870
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 580 of 783 (852480)
05-12-2019 8:35 AM
Reply to: Message 579 by AZPaul3
05-11-2019 7:34 PM


You don't cite a source, but I did find an article that seemed to be about the same thing: Brexit Party Has More Support Than Britain's Main Parties: Poll. It was about the EU elections, so this poll is about how Britains might vote for representation in the European parliament. It implies that pro-Brexit representation in the European parliament might increase. I don't understand EU politics and so don't know whether this is significant or not, i.e., that it might play a role in how Brexit plays out.

But the article mentioned another poll about how people would vote in a British general election, and that came out differently:

quote:
A separate poll by the same organization, asking how people would vote in the event of a general election, also makes grim reading for May’s administration. The Conservatives, on 22%, trail Labour in that survey by six percentage points and lead the Brexit party by just one point.

The paragraph is remarkably sparse on figures, but filling in the blanks we get this:

Labour28%
Conservatives22%
Brexit21%
Liberal Democrats?
Other?

My interpretations of the article could be off because such articles have a variety of names that I'm not familiar with that they use to refer to the different political parties. For example, I think Tories are the Conservative party, but I could be wrong. I think Farage's party is the Brexit party, but I could be wrong.

But if I correctly picked up the gist of that article, and if those poll figures hold up, then after a new general election the Conservatives and the Brexits would form one alliance, and the Labour party would try to find common cause with enough Liberal Democrats and Other to take control of Parliament. If Labour takes control of Parliament would that make a cancellation of Brexit possible?

Sorry if I'm way off. It would be welcome if someone could clarify. I know a lot has been written here and I should understand this better, but I don't.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 579 by AZPaul3, posted 05-11-2019 7:34 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
 Message 581 by caffeine, posted 05-12-2019 9:33 AM Percy has responded

    
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1702
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 581 of 783 (852481)
05-12-2019 9:33 AM
Reply to: Message 580 by Percy
05-12-2019 8:35 AM


My interpretations of the article could be off because such articles have a variety of names that I'm not familiar with that they use to refer to the different political parties. For example, I think Tories are the Conservative party, but I could be wrong. I think Farage's party is the Brexit party, but I could be wrong.

You are correct on both points.

But if I correctly picked up the gist of that article, and if those poll figures hold up, then after a new general election the Conservatives and the Brexits would form one alliance, and the Labour party would try to find common cause with enough Liberal Democrats and Other to take control of Parliament. If Labour takes control of Parliament would that make a cancellation of Brexit possible?

Sorry if I'm way off. It would be welcome if someone could clarify. I know a lot has been written here and I should understand this better, but I don't.

There's a few things to bear in mind here.

First, there's a fundamental problem with your idea of a Tory/Brexit coalition. It would very much depend what sort of Tory party we had - particularly the leadership. A lot of the Tories are against Brexit. This is one of the central reasons that this whole process has turned into such a mess - neither of the two biggest traditional parties have a coherent policy on the European Union - both include members strongly committed to the European project and others strongly opposed, with a variety of intermediate positions.

I also think the Tories would be wary of allying with the Brexit party in any case, since they are aware that it's not a real political party. It's a single-issue campaign hastily thrown together - and the likelihood of it holding together coherently should it have a massive electoral success is slim. For a glimpse into what I'm thinking of - look at the current UKIP contingent in the EU Parliament. After the big UKIP success in the last election, they elected 24 MEPS.

Now, shortly before the next election; there are only two MEPs which still call themselves UKIP. Those two no longer sit with the EFDD (UKIP's European political alliance) - they decided to instead go and caucus with the fascists. They found there another former UKIP member, now sitting as an independent fascist after being expelled from the party.

14 of the UKIP MPs joined the Brexit Party - one of which had previously left UKIP to form his own Libertarian Party. Three refused to join the Brexit Party and sit as independents in the EFDD. One quit UKIP for the centre left, Eurosceptic SDP. One quite UKIP and joined the Tories. Two others quit the party and sit as unaffiliated independents - one after his failed leadership bid led to a fistfight with a fellow member and one in protest over the party's Islamophobia.

The Brexit will be the same. It's a motley alliance of xenophobes, old-school socialists, libertarians, and others with a load of incompatible principles - united solely on the one issue of leaving the European Union. It will fall apart pretty rapidly.

The other thing to bear in mind here, is that those numbers you're looking at are not going to be representation in Parliament; even if they're accurate vote figures. UK general elections are not elected proportionally - the same as in the US. The structure of the multiparty system means that parties can get significant vote shares without significant representation in Parliament. In 2015, the Lib Dems got 8% of the vote, and 1% of the seats. UKIP got almost 13% of the national vote, but they only won them 1 seat out of 650.

To get people in Parliament you don't need a large vote total - you need a geographically concentrated vote. To see how this works look at the Scottish Nationalists - they got much less than half UKIP's total votes; but this gave them 56 MPs, in contrast to UKIP's one. The Green Party got almost as many votes as the SNP, but they also only elected one MP. The SNP's votes are (obviously) concentrated in Scotland, and so matter more than the widely distributed support for parties like UKIP, Greens and Lib Dems.

ABE: If you want to fill in your question marks, by the way, the full results of the Opinium survey were as follows:

Labour: 28%
Tory: 22%
Brexit: 21%
Lib Dem: 11%
Green: 6%
Other: 12%

Edited by caffeine, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 580 by Percy, posted 05-12-2019 8:35 AM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 582 by Percy, posted 05-12-2019 11:01 AM caffeine has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 18870
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 582 of 783 (852483)
05-12-2019 11:01 AM
Reply to: Message 581 by caffeine
05-12-2019 9:33 AM


Thanks for all the info. Some of it was overload, but generally it was very helpful, especially where you explained how the parties aren't necessarily unified within themselves around some key issues.

Given that a Tory/Brexit coalition is an iffy thing, does that mean the Labour party has a good chance of controlling Parliament if there's a new general election? And if they did would they work toward finding ways to end Brexit?

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 581 by caffeine, posted 05-12-2019 9:33 AM caffeine has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 583 by PaulK, posted 05-12-2019 2:04 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

    
PaulK
Member
Posts: 15439
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 583 of 783 (852484)
05-12-2019 2:04 PM
Reply to: Message 582 by Percy
05-12-2019 11:01 AM


Given the First Past the Post system it depends on the distribution of votes. Labour and the Tories will almost certainly get more seats than the numbers suggest.

I think those figures would give Labour more seats than the Tories, but I don’t think they’d get a majority. Not that they would stop Brexit if they did, unless something changes. Labour’s policy is pro-Brexit and they are reluctant to even go with a second referendum.

I don’t think that a General Election is very likely at the moment, but everything is so up in the air it is hard to rule anything out.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 582 by Percy, posted 05-12-2019 11:01 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
 Message 584 by caffeine, posted 05-12-2019 2:40 PM PaulK has not yet responded
 Message 585 by Heathen, posted 05-13-2019 2:39 AM PaulK has responded

    
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1702
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 584 of 783 (852488)
05-12-2019 2:40 PM
Reply to: Message 583 by PaulK
05-12-2019 2:04 PM


Given the First Past the Post system it depends on the distribution of votes. Labour and the Tories will almost certainly get more seats than the numbers suggest.

I think those figures would give Labour more seats than the Tories, but I don’t think they’d get a majority.

There's very little chance of anyone winning a majority. The lowest vote share that has ever sufficed for a single-party majority (since Irish independence) was 36.9% (this was David Cameron's slim victory when he ran on the promise of a referendum).

In reality though, I am guessing, since if the vote share in the opinion poll is correct it's uncharted territory. There has never have been a UK election in which the top two parties had less than 50% collectively - probably never less than about 65%. Election results like that opinion poll will probably mean a Commons whose composition is wildly out of whack with the popular vote.

Funny that a decade ago we had a referendum to reform our electoral system, which lost dramatically. And yet now we're in a situation where the two largest parties may not receive a majority of the popular vote collectively.

Not that they would stop Brexit if they did, unless something changes. Labour’s policy is pro-Brexit and they are reluctant to even go with a second referendum.

Though Labour did commit to a second referendum in their official party platform. The fact that they are nonetheless reluctant to follow through is probably a large contributor to why they're polling so poorly (even if they're the most popular single party in the polls, 28% is pretty appalling considering they got 40% of the vote in the 2017 election).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 583 by PaulK, posted 05-12-2019 2:04 PM PaulK has not yet responded

  
Heathen
Member
Posts: 1062
From: Brizzle
Joined: 09-20-2005


Message 585 of 783 (852523)
05-13-2019 2:39 AM
Reply to: Message 583 by PaulK
05-12-2019 2:04 PM


Labour’s policy is pro-Brexit and they are reluctant to even go with a second referendum.

There appears to be a whiff of change in the air in this respect:
not explicitly to reverese Brexit, but increaseing likelyhood of a confirmatory vote.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48245499

Keir Starmer makes a point in his guardian interview that although the LIb Dems are the major "Remain" party, (their EU election material bears the headline "Bollocks to Brexit"), they are unlikely to be in a position to action that opinion unless there is a general election.

But, as it stands the EU election is the mother of all protest votes and will be seen as a massive opinion poll on brexit.

So as voters we have a choice:
-Vote Labour or Tory for pro-brexit but with a deal, (A deal that shows no sign of being agreed or ratified).
-Vote Lib Dem to register our oppostion to brexit in all its forms.
-Vote Brexit to register our support to leaving on WTO terms.

none of this will be binding, and as I said will simply be indicitave of the prevailing mood.

The two main parties have already been hurt badly in the local elections, with the party making the most gains being the Lib Dems. But the Lib Dems are still suffering the backlash for going into government with the tories during the Cameron/Clegg Years.
In a different universe they (Lib Dems) would have gone into coalition with Labour under Ed Milliband and there would never have been a referendum.

Edited by Heathen, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 583 by PaulK, posted 05-12-2019 2:04 PM PaulK has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 586 by PaulK, posted 05-13-2019 3:53 AM Heathen has responded

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2018 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.0 Beta
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2019