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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
Percy
Member
Posts: 18482
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.8


(1)
Message 601 of 655 (853184)
05-23-2019 10:52 AM


What Now?
I see in the news that May has lost the support of her cabinet and is expected to resign on Friday. What happens after that? Does this guarantee a no-deal Brexit?

Viewed from afar and through the filter of American reporting, May seems a politician of honesty, integrity, determination and extraordinary persistence who sincerely believed she could shepard Britain through the intricacies of Brexit. In retrospect maybe it was too impossible an undertaking for anyone.

The British people declared they wanted Brexit in an open and fair election, albeit the information they were provided upon which to base their decision was a bill of goods. Brexit still seems wrongheaded to me, and in reaction to what's been happening in both Europe and the US over the past few years it's almost appropriate to repeat the "lamps going out" comment from nearly a century ago.

--Percy


Replies to this message:
 Message 602 by PaulK, posted 05-23-2019 11:11 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply
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PaulK
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Posts: 15037
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.2


Message 602 of 655 (853190)
05-23-2019 11:11 AM
Reply to: Message 601 by Percy
05-23-2019 10:52 AM


Re: What Now?
quote:

I see in the news that May has lost the support of her cabinet and is expected to resign on Friday. What happens after that? Does this guarantee a no-deal Brexit?

I expect her to hang on longer. But when she goes nobody knows what will happen. A strongly pro-Brexit replacement might be able to force no-deal, but we don’t know who the replacement will be.

The latest news here is that publication of the Withdrawal Bill - promised for Friday - has been delayed.

She will probably go in June - there’s a threat to change the rules to allow a new challenge if she doesn’t step down by the 10th.

quote:

Viewed from afar and through the filter of American reporting, May seems a politician of honesty, integrity, determination and extraordinary persistence who sincerely believed she could shepard Britain through the intricacies of Brexit. In retrospect maybe it was too impossible an undertaking for anyone.

I think that has much to do with the poor quality of politicians on your side of the Atlantic.

May made a lot of mistakes, and to a large degree is the author of her own misfortune. Rushing into invoking Article 50. Calling a General Election which reduced her Parliamentary majority. Negotiating a deal which a large part of her own party wouldn’t accept. Refusing to make adequate concessions to either side.

Brexit is a mess. And largely it is a mess because the pro-Brexit side didn’t really agree on what they wanted and didn’t really account for the issues - especially the Irish border.


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Taq
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Posts: 7882
Joined: 03-06-2009
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Message 603 of 655 (853197)
05-23-2019 11:24 AM
Reply to: Message 601 by Percy
05-23-2019 10:52 AM


Re: What Now?
Percy writes:

Viewed from afar and through the filter of American reporting, May seems a politician of honesty, integrity, determination and extraordinary persistence who sincerely believed she could shepard Britain through the intricacies of Brexit. In retrospect maybe it was too impossible an undertaking for anyone.

Also through American eyes . . .

I would say that May is competent, but not extraordinary. I think it would have taken a once-in-a-generation leader to get Brexit through. Brexit is a case of the public not fully understanding the ramifications of what they were voting for, and it quickly became unpalatable once it was understood. The border in Ireland is a massive hornet's nest all on its own without getting into the economic fallout.

May is simply doing what the voters had voted for and being punished for it.

Edited by Taq, : No reason given.


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Diomedes
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Posts: 861
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 604 of 655 (853207)
05-23-2019 12:24 PM
Reply to: Message 602 by PaulK
05-23-2019 11:11 AM


Re: What Now?
May made a lot of mistakes, and to a large degree is the author of her own misfortune. Rushing into invoking Article 50. Calling a General Election which reduced her Parliamentary majority. Negotiating a deal which a large part of her own party wouldn’t accept. Refusing to make adequate concessions to either side.

Brexit is a mess. And largely it is a mess because the pro-Brexit side didn’t really agree on what they wanted and didn’t really account for the issues - especially the Irish border.

Theresa May I think was guilty of some major overconfidence once she was chosen as PM. And she did seem to have a stubborn 'my way or the highway' approach to negotiating Brexit. Now that reality has set in, she is desperately trying to find some way across the finish line. But with so many of her MPs resigning their posts, including Andrea Leadsom quiting as Commons Leader, she basically now has no friends to speak of and no allies to rely on.

I think the bigger question is how will her replacement process pans out. It is pretty much given that her time is short. But the current alternative that seems to have the highest chance of filling the PM role in the interim is Boris Johnson. Now if May is accused of being too rigid in her negotiating style, what does that say about Boris who doesn't believe in ANY compromises and seems to be perfectly content to leaving without a deal.

I think the final nail in the coffin for May is going to be the results of the European parliamentary elections. Nigel Farage's Brexit party is expected to win big. And the Conservatives are currently polling way down. That will likely be the final impetus for May being forced out.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 602 by PaulK, posted 05-23-2019 11:11 AM PaulK has responded

Replies to this message:
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 15037
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.2


Message 605 of 655 (853208)
05-23-2019 12:40 PM
Reply to: Message 604 by Diomedes
05-23-2019 12:24 PM


Re: What Now?
quote:

Theresa May I think was guilty of some major overconfidence once she was chosen as PM. And she did seem to have a stubborn 'my way or the highway' approach to negotiating Brexit. Now that reality has set in, she is desperately trying to find some way across the finish line.

And again her unwillingness to compromise sabotaged her negotiations with Labour. If she really wanted to deliver Brexit she had to come up with something that would satisfy enough MPs. And she never did.

quote:

I think the bigger question is how will her replacement process pans out. It is pretty much given that her time is short. But the current alternative that seems to have the highest chance of filling the PM role in the interim is Boris Johnson. Now if May is accused of being too rigid in her negotiating style, what does that say about Boris who doesn't believe in ANY compromises and seems to be perfectly content to leaving without a deal.

I don’t think that the odds of becoming leader are greatly in his favour. But No Deal possibly stands a better chance than May’s deal at this point. It’s the only possible option that the ERG would accept. Rewriting the deal to remove the backstop is out, as is sabotaging it in the Political Declaration. And it is possible to weasel into it since it is currently the default.


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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 861
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 606 of 655 (853211)
05-23-2019 1:46 PM
Reply to: Message 605 by PaulK
05-23-2019 12:40 PM


Re: What Now?
I don’t think that the odds of becoming leader are greatly in his favour. But No Deal possibly stands a better chance than May’s deal at this point. It’s the only possible option that the ERG would accept. Rewriting the deal to remove the backstop is out, as is sabotaging it in the Political Declaration. And it is possible to weasel into it since it is currently the default.

Interestingly, the futures markets now seem to be moving more towards a 'No Deal' scenario with their predictions. The Pound-Sterling is now at 1.26 to the US dollar, having been at 1.30 recently.

I am still keeping my fingers crossed that some alternate scenario will manifest. Brexit has thrown a lot of curve balls since the vote. There is still a possibility for a general election, although that would likely require another extension of Article 50 by the EU.

You know, when I started this Brexit thread almost three years ago, I never anticipated it would exist well into 2019. Interesting times we live in.


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Tangle
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Posts: 6880
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.1


(1)
Message 607 of 655 (853249)
05-24-2019 4:20 AM


They said the job couldn't be done
She rolled up her sleeves and went to it
She tackled that job that couldn't be done
And couldn't damn well do it

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


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PaulK
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Posts: 15037
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.2


Message 608 of 655 (853253)
05-24-2019 5:14 AM


Theresa May Resigns.
Departure date is 7th June.

So let’s see if the Tories can mess themselves up even worse this time.


Replies to this message:
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Pressie
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Posts: 2027
From: Pretoria, SA
Joined: 06-18-2010
Member Rating: 2.0


(1)
Message 609 of 655 (853254)
05-24-2019 5:28 AM
Reply to: Message 608 by PaulK
05-24-2019 5:14 AM


Re: Theresa May Resigns.
There really is no solution to that Brexit conundrum. I think a no-deal scenario is getting more realistic. That's going to open a lot of other cans (with another variety of ugly worms)!

Let's put it this way. I wouldn't want to be the next British PM, even if they paid me the equivalent of what Trump lost reported or not reported in his tax reurns. Every day.

It's gonna bite them from behind one way or another.

Edited by Pressie, : No reason given.

Edited by Pressie, : No reason given.


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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 861
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.3


(1)
Message 610 of 655 (853259)
05-24-2019 8:07 AM
Reply to: Message 609 by Pressie
05-24-2019 5:28 AM


Re: Theresa May Resigns.
There really is no solution to that Brexit conundrum. I think a no-deal scenario is getting more realistic. That's going to open a lot of other cans (with another variety of ugly worms)!

This will definitely end up eating a lot of valuable time. Now the Torries have to go through a process to select a new PM. The new deadline for Brexit is now five months away. Of course, it is always possible that the EU will grant another extension. But my guess is they will only ratify that if it makes sense. Like the need to hold general elections or to hold another referendum.

Well, guess there are more shenanigans and volatility on the horizon.


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 Message 609 by Pressie, posted 05-24-2019 5:28 AM Pressie has responded

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Pressie
Member
Posts: 2027
From: Pretoria, SA
Joined: 06-18-2010
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 611 of 655 (853261)
05-24-2019 8:30 AM
Reply to: Message 610 by Diomedes
05-24-2019 8:07 AM


Re: Theresa May Resigns.
It's going to get even more interesting to watch.

Some clever tv producer and people could make a lot more money from this than any other "reality-show" from the past. I mean, even Kylie is a billionare...and she's quite lame compared to this.

Edited by Pressie, : No reason given.


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Percy
Member
Posts: 18482
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 612 of 655 (853266)
05-24-2019 10:08 AM
Reply to: Message 607 by Tangle
05-24-2019 4:20 AM


There was a young lady from Eastbourne,
Who found Brexit more like a hedge thorn,
She pushed it so hard,
She wound up getting tarred,
And had to resign one morn.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 607 by Tangle, posted 05-24-2019 4:20 AM Tangle has not yet responded

    
Percy
Member
Posts: 18482
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 613 of 655 (853267)
05-24-2019 10:14 AM


Understanding Brexit
This column from the New York Times but by a columnist for The Times of London was helpful in lending some perspective to the Brexit history: Theresa May Meets Her Lonely End

It says that in the end May was defeated by her own myopic single-minded pursuit of a single course at a time, never able to change paths until the current path ran into a hard dead end. At each stage of her journey she lost allies until finally she was left with no one.

--Percy


Replies to this message:
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 861
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 614 of 655 (853272)
05-24-2019 12:02 PM
Reply to: Message 613 by Percy
05-24-2019 10:14 AM


Re: Understanding Brexit
It says that in the end May was defeated by her own myopic single-minded pursuit of a single course at a time, never able to change paths until the current path ran into a hard dead end. At each stage of her journey she lost allies until finally she was left with no one.

That is a pretty decent summation. To be fair, she was also handed a shit sandwich and had to navigate the tenuous waters of the Conservative Party; which is very divided on its Brexit stance.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 613 by Percy, posted 05-24-2019 10:14 AM Percy has responded

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Percy
Member
Posts: 18482
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 615 of 655 (853276)
05-24-2019 2:49 PM
Reply to: Message 614 by Diomedes
05-24-2019 12:02 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
Is it a fair question to ask whether navigating these waters to end up anywhere but a hard Brexit is even possible? Is there any flavor of soft Brexit that would have gotten enough votes in Parliament? May's independent sort of soft Brexit failed several votes in Parliament, but would a very soft Brexit (maintaining very close ties with the EU through treaties) have mustered enough votes? And would the EU even agree to it?

--Percy


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Replies to this message:
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