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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
AZPaul3
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Posts: 4763
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.4


Message 631 of 796 (853357)
05-26-2019 4:42 PM


Ahh, defections.

Tory MPs voting no confidence in their own party and its capacity to govern thus provoking a general election where the Conservatives are likely to be relegated to the shadow government for a long, long time.

Is that realistic? Apparently it is.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 7132
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.4


Message 632 of 796 (853362)
05-26-2019 6:01 PM
Reply to: Message 628 by AZPaul3
05-26-2019 4:14 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
AZP writes:

I'm missing something.

All you're missing is the fact that the conservatives are a minority government unable to do anything without the consent of other parties and that internally both the conservatives and the main opposition are divided on Brexit so nothing can be done. Changing the leader changes nothing. We don't have the Presidential system here.

It's the bugger's muggle at work.

As we type, the elections for Europe are being announced. It's astonishing. Both main parties are totally trashed.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 628 by AZPaul3, posted 05-26-2019 4:14 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

  
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1576
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 633 of 796 (853375)
05-26-2019 11:21 PM


Did the nationalists really "win" this E.U. election?
The nationalists only won about a half dozen seats (out of 18) in Austria.

In the U.K., the hard anti-Brexit parties out polled the powerful Pro-Brexit parties.

The anti-Brexit side did so good that (worthless) Jeremy Corbyn is finally being called out for his support for not only (what is essentially) anti-immigration policy but also his support for Brexit itself.

quote:

European election results 2019 in FULL: Summary and breakdown for every region

....
ByDan BloomOnline Political Editor
02:13, 27 MAY 2019UPDATED02:56, 27 MAY 2019

The Tories tonight suffered their worst election result for almost 200 years as resigning Theresa May was annihilated in the EU elections.

With every British region declared except Scotland, Brexit civil war finally obliterated the party of government as it won less than 9% of the vote - landing in fifth place behind the Greens - and lost 15 of 18 seats.

But Labour were also knocked into third place by the Lib Dems, losing 8 of their 18 seats as Jeremy Corbyn's party descended into infighting over its "fence-sitting" Brexit stance.

The story of the night was the polarising of British politics - with votes flooding away from both main parties to groups that are either pro- or anti-Brexit.

Nigel Farage's Brexit Party were the runaway winners, topping the poll in every single area except London, wiping out the Tories completely in some and picking up 28 seats.

....

But there was also a huge surge for anti-Brexit parties - with the Lib Dems, Greens and Change UK winning more than the Brexit Party and UKIP combined.

The Lib Dems had the best night in history in many areas, recovering from their low point in 2014 with an incredible 14-point surge to 21% and rocketing their seat tally from 1 to 15.

The 'bollocks to Brexit' party even topped the bill in London - including in Jeremy Corbyn's back yard of Islington - while anti-Brexit nationalists Plaid Cymru beat Labour in the party's heartland of Wales.

That prompted a furious attack on Labour's policy from his constituency neighbour and shadow cabinet minister Emily Thornberry.

She demanded Labour fully back a second referendum, fuming: "We were not clear on the one single thing that people wanted to hear."

Facing MPs' anger Jeremy Corbyn later issued a statement, but it did not commit to a second referendum - only to either that, or a general election. But he did promise “conversations across the party divide” to find a way forward.

....

Despite the Brexit Party's thumping victory, anti-Brexit parties won MORE votes than pro-hard-Brexit parties in the election.

With all British regions counted except Scotland, the Lib Dems had won 20.9%, the Greens won 12.5% and Change UK won 3.6%.

That meant the three big anti-Brexit parties won 37% of the vote - compared to 35.7% for UKIP and the Brexit Party put together. UKIP won 3.5% of the vote while Nigel Farage's outfit won 33.2%.


The question is what kind of voters (regarding their Brexit views) backed the Conservatives and Labor.

There needs to be a major effort to shoot down Corbyn if he promotes the type of crap that has the U.K. remain in the E.U. but stops the free movement constitutional right. It is pure anti-immigration stuff.

Non U.K. results:

Italy and Hungary saw big right wing wins.

Poland saw right win parties get around 48% verses pro E.U. parties getting 45% (but the population is still pro E.U.).

Otherwise, the pro E.U. side dominated results.

(So it does not look too bad for now)


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caffeine
Member
Posts: 1715
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 634 of 796 (853379)
05-27-2019 5:20 AM
Reply to: Message 633 by LamarkNewAge
05-26-2019 11:21 PM


Re: Did the nationalists really "win" this E.U. election?
I would agree that the media is over excited and carried away with it's 'far right on the march!' narrative. This obsession with the right is probably helping to find the successes they're having, by giving them confidence, airtime and respectability.

Actually looking at the results, we can see that populist, Eurosceptic parties gained seats. The ENF (the fascist grouping of Le Pen and Salvini) jumped from 37 to 58 seats. The EDFF (the less extreme Eurosceptics, this is the Brexit Party and AfD), went from 45 to 56.

This means that, collectively, the two groups have gone from 10.9% to 15.2%. Sure, this is a success, but to hear some people speak you would think they won the election. On the contrary, they appear to represent a minority viewpoint. As it stands, neither group actually has enough members to form an official group in the new Parliament since, unlike the Communists or the Greens, their numbers do not represent broad European coalitions from all across the continent. They represent the successes of a few specific national parties (Brexit, AfD, National Rally and Lega).

If we need a narrative to describe the election, it should be one of fragmentation. The Eurosceptics increased their vote share, yes. But so did the Liberals and the Greens, at the expense of the two traditional main blocs.


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Pressie
Member
Posts: 2081
From: Pretoria, SA
Joined: 06-18-2010


Message 635 of 796 (853389)
05-27-2019 8:25 AM
Reply to: Message 634 by caffeine
05-27-2019 5:20 AM


Re: Did the nationalists really "win" this E.U. election?
caffeine writes:

If we need a narrative to describe the election, it should be one of fragmentation....

Right on time. The major parties are, just like in the US, slaves to big corporations. Time to change that.

This message is a reply to:
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Diomedes
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Posts: 919
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 636 of 796 (853403)
05-27-2019 10:31 AM
Reply to: Message 634 by caffeine
05-27-2019 5:20 AM


Re: Did the nationalists really "win" this E.U. election?
If we need a narrative to describe the election, it should be one of fragmentation. The Eurosceptics increased their vote share, yes. But so did the Liberals and the Greens, at the expense of the two traditional main blocs.

I think that is a good summation. Another way to view it is essentially a repudiation of the establishment parties who many feel have been placating too long to big business and their own self interest.

From the UK perspective, the Brexit party obviously did very well. However, as stated, so did the other 'non-establishment' parties. It was ultimately the Conservatives and Labour that took the brunt of the frustration. As would be expected.

Looking at the EU elections wholesale, there is one area that I think is a cause for concern. And that is France. Marine La Pen's Nationally Rally party ended up on top versus Macron's Renaissance list. Now as other elections demonstrated, some of this is simply due to a backlash against the establishment. But the reason for concern is France has had numerous issues of late, with terrorist attacks and the Yellow Vest protests. And this looks like it could be setting the stage for the potential of a far right party taking a very prominent role in France. With France being an integral player in the EU, having a Euroskeptic party with a larger majority if not outright control of France could have massive ramifications for EU as a whole.

Italy also had a surge in its far-right party, although that was not unexpected. But between France and Italy, those are two very large economies that could use their sway in ways that could be detrimental to the EU in the long run.


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caffeine
Member
Posts: 1715
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 637 of 796 (853409)
05-27-2019 11:24 AM
Reply to: Message 636 by Diomedes
05-27-2019 10:31 AM


Re: Did the nationalists really "win" this E.U. election?
I think you're framing the French results all wrong. There was no surge for the far right Luke there was in Italy. My takeaway here is that, despite all the social unrest witnessed in France the last couple of years, despite the fact that Macron has historically low approval ratings, Le Pen's party got a lower share of the vote than in the last election. They barely got more votes than the party of a man who is possibly the world's least popular President.

To me, the fact that the far right appear unable to grow their support in France, despite terrorist attacks, and despite widespread dissatisfaction with mainstream parties, is cause for hope, not worry.


This message is a reply to:
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 919
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 638 of 796 (853412)
05-27-2019 11:39 AM
Reply to: Message 637 by caffeine
05-27-2019 11:24 AM


Re: Did the nationalists really "win" this E.U. election?
I think you're framing the French results all wrong. There was no surge for the far right Luke there was in Italy. My takeaway here is that, despite all the social unrest witnessed in France the last couple of years, despite the fact that Macron has historically low approval ratings, Le Pen's party got a lower share of the vote than in the last election. They barely got more votes than the party of a man who is possibly the world's least popular President.

Perhaps, but I would caution against any complacency. While La Pen did get a lower percentage on the whole, that is partially due to the larger turnout in the recent election. They also received half a million more votes than they did last time.

Ultimately, the main concern from my perspective is the fact that National Rally is the clear opposition as it stands. And depending on how the votes are distributed, the issue is that left leaning individuals will divide their votes across several parties while right leaning individuals could coalesce around La Pen. And that could put her party in the clear majority.

The Guardian has a good summary of the France election results:

https://www.theguardian.com/...manuel-macron-main-opposition

The following quote is the one I believe exemplifies why one shouldn't gloss over how things turned out in France:

quote:
Macron had defined the election campaign as an existential fight between Europe-friendly progressives and Eurosceptic far-right nationalists. His camp claimed he had boosted the turnout.

Some political observers, however, criticised the now common approach of French politicians who shout about the danger of Le Pen during an election campaign, then minimise the significance of the results when the far right does well.

Le Pen’s share of the vote was higher than in the first round of the French presidential election in 2017. Her party, led by the 23-year-old Jordan Bardella, made gains in the high-abstention banlieue suburbs around Paris and in new areas of Brittany and the south-west. Macron’s prime minister, Edouard Philippe, acknowledged: “When you come second, you can’t say you’ve won.” He said Le Pen was now a de facto opposition force.



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caffeine
Member
Posts: 1715
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 639 of 796 (853421)
05-27-2019 12:06 PM
Reply to: Message 638 by Diomedes
05-27-2019 11:39 AM


Re: Did the nationalists really "win" this E.U. election?
Perhaps, but I would caution against any complacency. While La Pen did get a lower percentage on the whole, that is partially due to the larger turnout in the recent election. They also received half a million more votes than they did last time.

Ultimately, the main concern from my perspective is the fact that National Rally is the clear opposition as it stands. And depending on how the votes are distributed, the issue is that left leaning individuals will divide their votes across several parties while right leaning individuals could coalesce around La Pen. And that could put her party in the clear majority.

I would interpret all this differently. The right is not uniting around Le Pen - it is the left that has haemorrhaged votes to fascists in France. Like the article you quoted from said - it's in the banlieux where National Rally made gains - these are the traditional strongholds of socialists and communists.

The traditional mainsteam right is voting for Macron's party; or they are the approximately 15% of voters who went for the Republicans or one of the smaller parties that fractured away in the last few years.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not blase about political developments in France - on the contrary I find it very concerning. But the issue as I see it is not that the right is rallying to Le Pen while the left fractures. The issue is that the left has collapsed as a serious political force, and the main divide now appears to be between the centre-right and the far-right.


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Tangle
Member
Posts: 7132
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.4


Message 640 of 796 (853428)
05-27-2019 12:18 PM


Hilariously - in this tragicomedy - neither Tory nor Labour now want an election; they're terrified of the outcome.

So a no confidence vote is being pushed away a bit by both sides.

The remaining option then is referendum (if the other two possibilities are ruled out - hard exit and May's deal.)

It's all getting much worse, our democracy is properly broken by this stupid first past the post voting system.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1576
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 641 of 796 (853478)
05-27-2019 9:01 PM
Reply to: Message 638 by Diomedes
05-27-2019 11:39 AM


Re: Did the nationalists really "win" this E.U. election?
quote:

Perhaps, but I would caution against any complacency. While La Pen did get a lower percentage on the whole, that is partially due to the larger turnout in the recent election. They also received half a million more votes than they did last time.

Ultimately, the main concern from my perspective is the fact that National Rally is the clear opposition as it stands. And depending on how the votes are distributed, the issue is that left leaning individuals will divide their votes across several parties while right leaning individuals could coalesce around La Pen. And that could put her party in the clear majority.


The National Front would need to win by a wide margin to take enough seats to be a major player in forming a majority government in the parliament. Winning a 25% to 24% race against Macron's party won't do anything for the right when pretty much 70% of the vote was for a pro EU party.

And France has a Presidential election where there are only two candidates. So 50% plus of the vote is needed.

(Macron beat Le Pen 66% to 34% a few years ago, though Le Pen actually took 45% of the youth vote)

Italy

Italy actually saw two anti-immigration parties get a combined majority. One (Five Star Movement) is actually socialistic.

When it came to the E.U. elections, the Five Star Movement had a dangerous infiltrator type of scheme where it kept trying to join the larger (pro immigration) left-wing and then left-leaning (pro-immigration) blocs to literally destroy the pro immigration side from within.

(Kind of like Jeremy Corbyn's technique)

Hungary

Viktor Orban's anti-immigration party won 52% against the Liberal Democrat's 16%.

He has attempted to destroy the the (pro immigration) center-right bloc's defense of "free movement" by joining the bloc.

Poland

The Polish situation is complicated by the strong social conservative strain in Poland. The Polish seem to be solidly pro E.U. but have problems with policies on social issues. Poland might not be in the same danger of nationalism like the U.K., Hungary, and Italy are (the last two seem fully lost, and they don't want a European Union to remain friendly to immigration and free movement).

Back to the U.K.

The major pro European Union parties still have a slight vote edge over the nationalists.

Pro European Union (and immigration) parties vote percentage:

Liberal Democrats 18.5%

Green 11.1%

Scottish Nationalist Party 3.3%

Change U.K. 2.9%

Anti Immigration & European Union parties:

Brexit 31.7%

UKIP 3.6%

This means the anti-nationalists (yes the SNP is that, despite the name) are at 35.8% while the nationalists are at 35.3%.

But the big questions:

Who knows what the voters for the two main parties think?

The conservatives have been pro E.U. and fairly pro immigration, but have been divided on both issues. The conservatives oppose "ever greater union" whatever that means.

Labour has been all over the board on the E.U. for as long as the E.U. existed.


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Tangle
Member
Posts: 7132
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.4


Message 642 of 796 (853505)
05-28-2019 8:23 AM


I've just been reminded that the EU might just kick us out on the 31st October regardless of what we say or don't say. They don't have to do a deal and unless we revoke Article 50 before then, we're out automatically.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 919
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 643 of 796 (853506)
05-28-2019 9:01 AM
Reply to: Message 639 by caffeine
05-27-2019 12:06 PM


Re: Did the nationalists really "win" this E.U. election?
caffeine writes:

Don't get me wrong, I'm not blase about political developments in France - on the contrary I find it very concerning. But the issue as I see it is not that the right is rallying to Le Pen while the left fractures. The issue is that the left has collapsed as a serious political force, and the main divide now appears to be between the centre-right and the far-right.

That is ultimately the point I am getting across. With a fractured left, that ends up diluting the vote. As a result, it decreases the likelihood of a left majority and increases the likelihood of a right majority. Perhaps I am being melodramatic. But being that France is typically pretty far left, I find the results a cause for concern.

LamarkNewAge writes:

But the big questions:

Who knows what the voters for the two main parties think?

The conservatives have been pro E.U. and fairly pro immigration, but have been divided on both issues. The conservatives oppose "ever greater union" whatever that means.

Labour has been all over the board on the E.U. for as long as the E.U. existed.

I would probably say the conservatives have been a bit more bipolar with the whole Brexit situation. But Labour has not exactly been forthright in their stance either. From my perspective, it appears they turned the whole Brexit quagmire into a political opportunity and it backfired. Jeremy Corbyn also doesn't appear to be considered a very effective leader. I am wondering if there might be some machinations behind the scenes to look for his replacement.

Tangle writes:

Hilariously - in this tragicomedy - neither Tory nor Labour now want an election; they're terrified of the outcome.
So a no confidence vote is being pushed away a bit by both sides.

The remaining option then is referendum (if the other two possibilities are ruled out - hard exit and May's deal.)

That is definitely throwing a monkey wrench into the gears. As if the engine wasn't faltering already. I honestly am not sure how things will play out. I think that will become more apparent when the new PM is picked. That will give more indication as to the direction things will be going.

On a sidebar, the pundits on Dateline London think that the EU won't be providing any further extensions beyond October 31st. Macron especially is apparently not willing to draw out Brexit any further. My guess is since the EU elections weren't as good, he will likely want to take a more hard line stance.


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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 919
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 644 of 796 (853514)
05-28-2019 11:43 AM


What the EU elections mean for Brexit
The following video has a pretty good breakdown and summary of the British EU elections and how they may affect Brexit:


  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1576
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 645 of 796 (853639)
05-29-2019 11:45 PM
Reply to: Message 643 by Diomedes
05-28-2019 9:01 AM


Re: Did the nationalists really "win" this E.U. election?
quote:

That is ultimately the point I am getting across. With a fractured left, that ends up diluting the vote. As a result, it decreases the likelihood of a left majority and increases the likelihood of a right majority. Perhaps I am being melodramatic. But being that France is typically pretty far left, I find the results a cause for concern.

In France itself, the left had a government just before Macron won (who is something of a pro-environmental, low business regulation center-left type who also attempts to be something of a pro-immigration "populist"). Holland talked about a 70% tax rate on the wealthy (but "right-wing socialists" in his party demonstrated the economic ruin that would have brought to an already hurting country). Holland and the socialists were simply duds. I can't imagine any rational person would want them anywhere near government.

Macron's big wins were a breath of hope for maintaining the fight against anti-immigration populism.

(The French economy remains essentially in - what it feels like to people - stagnation, and Macron's numbers have plunged)

In the E.U. Parliament, the situation has always had center-left parties (the "socialists" are part of the center, ironically) form a coalition with the center-right. Now those two (or a combined "One") fell to 43%.

To get back to 65%, they need the pro-business ALDN (Liberal Democrats) and the pro-environmental Greens.

A move toward the left is probable.

The problem with the E.U. move to the left is that the more mandates it requires on member states, the more powerful the populists become. And "open borders" and "free movement" (immigrants!) get almost all of the blame and take the brunt of the anti-European Union forces when the forces outline their "fightback".

David Cameron might have had it roughly right (if I understand his position) when he supported "free movement" while also opposing ever greater union. It seems far superior to the Jeremy Corbyn anti-immigration stance. It was a strategy designed to keep relatively "open borders" (between member states) possible.

Outside of the U.K., the right-wingers are essentially pro E.U. but want to attack the big issue of "free movement" and E.U. wide immigration requirements from Brussels.

(Unlike the United States, the populists, in Europe, are fairly pro-free trade, so immigration is the sole big issue)

quote:

I would probably say the conservatives have been a bit more bipolar with the whole Brexit situation. But Labour has not exactly been forthright in their stance either. From my perspective, it appears they turned the whole Brexit quagmire into a political opportunity and it backfired. Jeremy Corbyn also doesn't appear to be considered a very effective leader. I am wondering if there might be some machinations behind the scenes to look for his replacement.

Corbyn always seemed to me like a nationalist in sheep's clothing.

I was relieved that he did not win the last election. It would have been ruinous for the pro-immigration side.

Considering the favorable circumstances since Brexit (after it happened, not WHEN it happened on June 23, 2016):

I actually think Corbyn's strategy has been good for the pro immigration side IF HE SUDDENLY BECOMES PRO IMMIGRATION (or at least starts to slowly manage a move completely to the pro-immigration side), but it might have more to do with circumstances, and not where his heart has been.

These last 3 years (starting June 24, 2016, NOT BREXIT ITSELF) have been about the best circumstances possible for the pro-immigration side. I totally hated how Corbyn took an anti "free movement" position, and frankly I feel it was what he always would have wanted (pre June 23, 2016 and back as far as you go), but perhaps he can be convinced that his position in incompatible with those he wants his support to come from.

What he has done so far hasn't been so bad. There were no divorce deals, anyway.

Hopefully the 52% to 48% decision can be overturned in a way that enables "free movement" to not get chopped up to save the E.U. membership status of the U.K.

Germany, in the years (months, day, minutes, too) leading up to Brexit, said that it would be better for the U.K. to leave the E.U. than to see it remain with "free movement" axed. Otherwise, Brexit is far better. That is true. Scotland will remain, and perhaps North Ireland will try, somehow, to find a way to remain.

The U.K. got all kinds of concessions (tough "welfare reform" for immigrants) that the E.U. rejected initially. But immigration was the ultimate issue.

(The U.K. is similar to the United States in that younger people are pro-immigration with older people anti-immigration. The situation is actually reversed in many other western European countries, like France and Italy. That means the U.K. might be fundamentally pro-immigration in the future. Italy is just crazy anti-immigration.)

Macron (who seems to identify with the ALDN in the E.U. Parliament) and Italy's Lega might be the two sides that ALL others will have to choose to orient around. Lega is right wing, but there are "left wing" nationalists that might attempt to form a possible future populist E.U. coalition. The AP recently said the Lega strategy is one of international nationalism.


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