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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
jar
Member
Posts: 31162
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 691 of 717 (859149)
07-29-2019 10:38 AM


How Low Can It Go?
So how low can the Pound go and what will that mean for British Import/Export? Will the low pound create enough jobs to offset the increased cost of imports?

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

Replies to this message:
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Tangle
Member
Posts: 6998
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.9


Message 692 of 717 (859153)
07-29-2019 11:07 AM
Reply to: Message 691 by jar
07-29-2019 10:38 AM


Re: How Low Can It Go?
We're about to become a great place for you guys to come for a holiday.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 883
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 693 of 717 (859167)
07-29-2019 12:55 PM
Reply to: Message 691 by jar
07-29-2019 10:38 AM


Re: How Low Can It Go?
The following link has a five year chart of the Sterling vs the US Dollar:

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=5Y

The pre-Brexit high was 1.69 to the US dollar. The downward trend started around 2014 to 2015. Which I believe was when they announced the Brexit referendum. And of course, it cratered when the vote occurred. And is now trading around 1.22 to the US dollar.

Some of this is also attributed to the strengthening of the dollar post the Great Recession. But still, a pretty massive drop considering how strong the currency was at the peak.


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caffeine
Member
Posts: 1682
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 694 of 717 (859258)
07-30-2019 10:10 AM
Reply to: Message 692 by Tangle
07-29-2019 11:07 AM


Re: How Low Can It Go?
We're about to become a great place for you guys to come for a holiday.

I'm focusing on buying everything I want from the UK in the next few months, while the pound is cheap and before there are any customs dues.


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jar
Member
Posts: 31162
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 695 of 717 (859266)
07-30-2019 11:10 AM


Still curious about In and Out!
A cheap coin is usually good for business that export products or commodities. IIRC fuels, beverages, tobacco products, and materials were the major categories. But other than the US, the major importers were EU nations.

But again, IIRC UK imports were almost double the exports.

As has been the case for at least several hundred years the UK relies on imports for its very existence.

A lower pound would make all imports more expensive even ignoring tariff issues. It will make exports more attractive even ignoring tariff issues.

Can the UK increase exports and also reduce the demand for imports to at least keep the economy relatively stable?

If so, how?


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 883
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 696 of 717 (859302)
07-30-2019 2:42 PM
Reply to: Message 695 by jar
07-30-2019 11:10 AM


Re: Still curious about In and Out!
As has been the case for at least several hundred years the UK relies on imports for its very existence.

A lower pound would make all imports more expensive even ignoring tariff issues. It will make exports more attractive even ignoring tariff issues.

Can the UK increase exports and also reduce the demand for imports to at least keep the economy relatively stable?

If so, how?

I think the answer might be yes and no.

Depending on the commodity, a weaker pound might incentivize investment in local production of a particular good or service since it now becomes more economically feasible to produce that locally. But I think you can only take that so far.

There are a great many consumer staples that simply can't be produced in the UK. Various produce and fruits for example. I don't know the full details to articulate exactly how that would play out. But regardless, its not like anyone can flick a switch overnight and suddenly start producing more goods and services on a whim. So in the near to medium term, an import economy like the UK will get a double whammy from a lower sterling and potentially, tariffs.

I am wondering if Boris is thinking he will flip a proverbial F U to the EU and start importing more from Canada and the USA. That could offset the tariff issue if he negotiates some deal. Trump would of course love that. But even still, the weaker pound would still make that expensive. Maybe slightly less so since the US dollar is a little weaker than the Euro.

And can someone smarter than me explain how they will fix the Irish border?


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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 4380
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.2


(1)
Message 697 of 717 (859308)
07-30-2019 4:37 PM
Reply to: Message 696 by Diomedes
07-30-2019 2:42 PM


Re: Still curious about In and Out!
And can someone smarter than me explain how they will fix the Irish border?

I don't qualify but let’s see ...

  • They could do away with a land border altogether by annexing Ireland and thus start a war.
  • They could do away with a land border altogether by ceding Northern Ireland to Ireland and thus start a war.
  • They could control the Irish border like any other which would violate of the Good Friday accords and thus start a war.
  • They could leave the border free and open defeating a major reason for the Brexit vote and thus start a war.

    Hmm … I think they’re fucked.


    Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

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  • jar
    Member
    Posts: 31162
    From: Texas!!
    Joined: 04-20-2004
    Member Rating: 2.7


    (3)
    Message 698 of 717 (859311)
    07-30-2019 4:45 PM
    Reply to: Message 697 by AZPaul3
    07-30-2019 4:37 PM


    Re: Still curious about In and Out!
    They need a WALL.

    Edited by jar, : spallin


    My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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    Heathen
    Member
    Posts: 1058
    From: Brizzle
    Joined: 09-20-2005


    Message 699 of 717 (859339)
    07-31-2019 5:24 AM
    Reply to: Message 697 by AZPaul3
    07-30-2019 4:37 PM


    Re: Still curious about In and Out!
    Agreed, they really didn't consider this at all.

    this twitter thread show the absolute impossibility of any "technology" managing the British border in Ireland.

    Edited by Heathen, : No reason given.


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    Percy
    Member
    Posts: 18794
    From: New Hampshire
    Joined: 12-23-2000
    Member Rating: 2.2


    Message 700 of 717 (859340)
    07-31-2019 7:20 AM
    Reply to: Message 690 by Diomedes
    07-29-2019 10:26 AM


    Re: So now what?
    I may be asking a silly question, but why wouldn't Northern Ireland and Scotland form their own UK (capital in either Belfast or Edinburgh). Northern Ireland has to go this way because of the risks associated with a hard border with Ireland just for their own peace and tranquility. Scotland's been unhappy with the UK and nearly voted to withdraw a few years ago, and I'm guessing that when Scotland says they're unhappy with the UK that they really mean England and Wales, not Northern Ireland.

    They'd need to work out trade/immigration/military deals with Wales and England, but wouldn't that be preferable to walking down the no-deal Brexit path? And they'd have open borders with the rest of the EU, and it would just be England and Wales walled off in their nice comfortable little realm of passport carrying citizens.

    --Percy


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    Heathen
    Member
    Posts: 1058
    From: Brizzle
    Joined: 09-20-2005


    Message 701 of 717 (859344)
    07-31-2019 9:11 AM
    Reply to: Message 700 by Percy
    07-31-2019 7:20 AM


    Re: So now what?
    Because the population of Northern Ireland is comprised of two (main) factions
    Unionists: Staunchly Pro-Union, Loyal to the Crown.
    Nationalists: Desiring reunification on the Island of Ireland

    A union with Scotland would be against the wishes of both of these two factions

    Edited by Heathen, : No reason given.


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    Percy
    Member
    Posts: 18794
    From: New Hampshire
    Joined: 12-23-2000
    Member Rating: 2.2


    Message 702 of 717 (859475)
    07-31-2019 7:37 PM
    Reply to: Message 701 by Heathen
    07-31-2019 9:11 AM


    Re: So now what?
    Well, here's another silly idea, then. Scotland and Northern Ireland both leave the UK. Scotland's leaving makes sense because they almost achieved it a few years ago, and now it makes even more sense. Am I right to assume that as an independent nation newly outside the UK that they'll have to apply for EU membership? If so they might want to time their exit from the UK to coincide with their admittance to the EU.

    Northern Ireland's leaving will be a close thing, but at least some Unionists will see the danger of a hard border with Ireland as greater than parting with the UK, and Sinn Fein and the Social Democrat and Labour Party will tend toward parting, also. Again depending upon the details of entry to the EU, Northern Ireland may want to delay exit from the UK until they're admitted to the EU. Northern Ireland will do a long dance with Ireland that possibly results in eventual reunification, though if reunifying with Ireland automatically makes them an EU member then that could accelerate the process.

    --Percy


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    Heathen
    Member
    Posts: 1058
    From: Brizzle
    Joined: 09-20-2005


    Message 703 of 717 (859534)
    08-01-2019 11:04 AM
    Reply to: Message 702 by Percy
    07-31-2019 7:37 PM


    Re: So now what?
    Scotland, maybe

    But Northern Ireland leaving the UK will end in civil war.


    This message is a reply to:
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    AZPaul3
    Member
    Posts: 4380
    From: Phoenix
    Joined: 11-06-2006
    Member Rating: 3.2


    (1)
    Message 704 of 717 (859536)
    08-01-2019 11:31 AM
    Reply to: Message 703 by Heathen
    08-01-2019 11:04 AM


    Re: So now what?
    Hey, they could all (England, Wales, N.Ireland and Scotland) seceded from the UK and join the EU en masse.

    Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

    This message is a reply to:
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    jar
    Member
    Posts: 31162
    From: Texas!!
    Joined: 04-20-2004
    Member Rating: 2.7


    Message 705 of 717 (859565)
    08-01-2019 1:58 PM
    Reply to: Message 704 by AZPaul3
    08-01-2019 11:31 AM


    Re: So now what?
    Ireland could even secede from the UK and retain connection to the Monarchy as have so many other of the British Colonies.

    My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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