Part of the campaign against the referendum for Scottish Independence was the promise that England would remain in the EU. That promise has been broken, so what do you Saxons have to say for yourselves now?
Boris Appears to be doubling down on his demands for renegotiation with voices suggesting that even with the removal of the backstop his cabinet are now set for No-deal as the default.
Meanwhile, in reaction to this new trajectory, the EU is stating that there is no basis for new talks. (as has been their postion since the negotiation of the withdrawal agreement).
Boris once denounced the talk of food and medicine shortages in the case of a no deal as "Project Fear", but has now released £2.1bn to no deal planning in order to prevent such shortages. So it seems that even he has admitted that "Project Fear" was "Project Truth".
So he blusters on hoping that the EU will give way. Something which they are unlikely to do.
I can't help but harbour the feeling that part of the plan is (in the knowledge that there is no "good" brexit scenario) to take such an extreme, indefensible position so that parliament will be forced to shut him down, thus forcing a second referendum. thereby, avoiding disaster and Saving face by being able to blame the U-turn on Parliament.
Of course the other outcome could be a general election in which I expect a Tory/Brexit party coalition.
As it is, I cannot remember a time when a party in power could have been so inept, such a complete disaster with an opposition party so completely unable to capitalise on it.
Corbyn has shown himself to be utterly useless and the Labour party is all but dead.
The most important detail that your implausible scenario overlooks is the danger of a hard border between England and Scotland. This is also ignored by all those banging on endlessly about another Scottish independence referendum. Freedom of movement with England is more important to most Scots than freedom of movement to France or Poland, and this is the main reason why independence is less likely post-Brexit, not more; regardless of collective delusions to the contrary.
quote:The Unite to Remain alliance will have a mountain to climb to prevent a Conservative victory at the next general election Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on August 11, 2019, 12:57 pm 115 Comments | Readers 3794
After several months where the Brexit Party, the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Conservatives have been locked in essentially a four-way tie in the opinion polls for the next British general election, the election of Boris Johnson as Conservative party leader and prime minister has led to the Tories having a consistent lead over their rivals.
The Tories have a lead of around 10 percentage points over Labour and the Liberal Democrats, who remain essentially tied on around 21%. The Tories’ gains appear to have been made at the expense of the Brexit Party, who have fallen to 14% from previous highs of 26%.
By historical standards, 31% would be a very low Conservative vote share, only barely scraping ahead of their worst ever previous election results in 1997 (30.7%) and 1832 (29.2%). However, the unprecedented fragmentation of party support and the quirks of the first-past-the-post system mean that this result could lead to a substantial majority in the House of Commons.
Despite the inherent issues with trying to forecast how opinion polls might map to results in individual constituencies, to get a sense of how a general election might turn out given current polling, I adjusted the 2017 election results using the latest YouGov poll to capture the movement of voters between parties. Assuming no pact of any sort between the pro-remain parties. The projected totals were:
Conservatives 31% (398 seats) Labour 22% (142) SNP 4% (57) Liberal Democrats 19% (28) Plaid Cymru 1% (4) Green 8% (1)
The article goes on to look at the coming alliance between the Liberal Dems, Plaid Cymru, and Green parties.
There does not see to be an efficient distribution.
Even with the electoral pact.
The math looks bad, unless the alliance exceeds expectations.
quote:Should the alliance somehow be able to beat expectations, agree unity candidates in every constituency in Great Britain, and are perfectly able to combine the votes of the three parties, they will still find it difficult to deny the Tories a majority as the bulk of their gains will be at Labour’s expense.
If the Unite to Remain alliance are to deny the Tories a majority, then they will need to win seats such as South East Cambridgeshire, which is the Unite to Remain target 249 and Conservative target 310 – probably enough to put Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson in 10 Downing Street with support from the SNP and the remains of the parliamentary Labour Party.
Winning in constituencies such as this shouldn’t be impossible – the Lib Dems came within less than 6,000 votes of victory in 2010 and the Greens kept their deposit by winning 5% of the vote in 2015. But it does show how difficult denying the Conservatives a majority will be through a Lib Dem/Green pact rather than the traditional route of Labour winning in Labour/Tory battleground constituencies.
The article offers a scenario that is more unlikely than not.
Here is another long article from site. It references, and quotes, the recent long Gordon Brown article.
Re: Third parties have a problem in efficiently spreading votes.
I wonder if this will affect Corbyn's current plan to call for a vote of no confidence in the current government. If it succeeds, then I believe a general election has to be called. Unless Boris can find a way to form a new government. But it appears from the polls that a general election would actually have an even more favorable outcome for his party. Which would essentially increase the likelihood of Brexit occurring.
I don't know how feasible it is for a general election to be viable prior to the October 31st Brexit deadline. Seems time is too short and Boris has indicated he won't ask for an extension. Not sure if Parliament can then take over and broker dialog with the EU asking for an extension. And there is no guarantee that the EU would even grant it.
Not a total surprise, since Johnson hinted at this. But how likely would it be that the Queen would agree to do so, especially on such a divisive issue? The royals have been pretty silent on Brexit, so my guess is they would prefer to just stay out of it.