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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
Stile
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Posts: 3863
From: Ontario, Canada
Joined: 12-02-2004
Member Rating: 1.7


(1)
Message 706 of 794 (859575)
08-01-2019 2:54 PM
Reply to: Message 705 by jar
08-01-2019 1:58 PM


Re: So now what?
jar writes:

...as have so many other of the British Colonies.

I don't know what you're talking about.

She's just a figurehead!
Wait... she's just a figurehead for the UK, too...
I don't know what's real anymore!!!

Edited by Stile, : grammer nazi-ing myself


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Tangle
Member
Posts: 7123
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.0


(1)
Message 707 of 794 (859580)
08-01-2019 5:01 PM
Reply to: Message 706 by Stile
08-01-2019 2:54 PM


Re: So now what?
Guys, leave us alone, this is private grief.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
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jar
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Posts: 31609
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.6


(2)
Message 708 of 794 (859583)
08-01-2019 5:25 PM
Reply to: Message 707 by Tangle
08-01-2019 5:01 PM


Re: So now what?
But is it a "Good Grief"?

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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AZPaul3
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Posts: 4730
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.2


Message 709 of 794 (859585)
08-01-2019 5:58 PM
Reply to: Message 707 by Tangle
08-01-2019 5:01 PM


Re: So now what?
How'd it get demoted from Major Grief?

Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

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Heathen
Member
Posts: 1063
From: Brizzle
Joined: 09-20-2005


Message 710 of 794 (859605)
08-02-2019 2:07 AM
Reply to: Message 704 by AZPaul3
08-01-2019 11:31 AM


Re: So now what?
Just Leaving the channel Islands, the isle of Man and Gibraltar to fend for themselves?

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Heathen
Member
Posts: 1063
From: Brizzle
Joined: 09-20-2005


(1)
Message 711 of 794 (859606)
08-02-2019 2:08 AM
Reply to: Message 705 by jar
08-01-2019 1:58 PM


Re: So now what?
Ireland could even secede from the UK and retain connection to the Monarchy as have so many other of the British Colonies.

Ireland fought hard for, and won, independance in 1922

Edited by Heathen, : No reason given.

Edited by Heathen, : No reason given.


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dwise1
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Posts: 3839
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 712 of 794 (859607)
08-02-2019 3:24 AM


Alba Gu Bràth
Part of the campaign against the referendum for Scottish Independence was the promise that England would remain in the EU. That promise has been broken, so what do you Saxons have to say for yourselves now?

Look for another referendum coming up very soon.


  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 6795
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 3.2


(4)
Message 713 of 794 (859755)
08-02-2019 6:17 PM


Jonathan Pie nails it again


Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


  
Heathen
Member
Posts: 1063
From: Brizzle
Joined: 09-20-2005


Message 714 of 794 (860190)
08-06-2019 2:41 AM


Hardening of postions
So It Seems we are in the middle of one almighty game of "chicken"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49240809

Boris Appears to be doubling down on his demands for renegotiation with voices suggesting that even with the removal of the backstop his cabinet are now set for No-deal as the default.

Meanwhile, in reaction to this new trajectory, the EU is stating that there is no basis for new talks. (as has been their postion since the negotiation of the withdrawal agreement).

Boris once denounced the talk of food and medicine shortages in the case of a no deal as "Project Fear", but has now released £2.1bn to no deal planning in order to prevent such shortages. So it seems that even he has admitted that "Project Fear" was "Project Truth".

So he blusters on hoping that the EU will give way. Something which they are unlikely to do.

I can't help but harbour the feeling that part of the plan is (in the knowledge that there is no "good" brexit scenario) to take such an extreme, indefensible position so that parliament will be forced to shut him down, thus forcing a second referendum.
thereby, avoiding disaster and Saving face by being able to blame the U-turn on Parliament.

Of course the other outcome could be a general election in which I expect a Tory/Brexit party coalition.

As it is, I cannot remember a time when a party in power could have been so inept, such a complete disaster with an opposition party so completely unable to capitalise on it.

Corbyn has shown himself to be utterly useless and the Labour party is all but dead.


  
caffeine
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Posts: 1711
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 715 of 794 (860196)
08-06-2019 8:32 AM
Reply to: Message 702 by Percy
07-31-2019 7:37 PM


Re: So now what?
The most important detail that your implausible scenario overlooks is the danger of a hard border between England and Scotland. This is also ignored by all those banging on endlessly about another Scottish independence referendum. Freedom of movement with England is more important to most Scots than freedom of movement to France or Poland, and this is the main reason why independence is less likely post-Brexit, not more; regardless of collective delusions to the contrary.

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RAZD
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Posts: 20232
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 4.2


Message 716 of 794 (860604)
08-09-2019 12:23 AM


the real reason?
This 30 year old 2 minute clip from "Yes Minister" comedy series

... could explain the sinister conspiracy plot behind Brexit ...

Edited by RAZD, : .


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

  
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1576
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 717 of 794 (860794)
08-12-2019 12:15 AM


Third parties have a problem in efficiently spreading votes.
Look at this problem

https://sluggerotoole.com/...ry-at-the-next-general-election

quote:
The Unite to Remain alliance will have a mountain to climb to prevent a Conservative victory at the next general election
Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on August 11, 2019, 12:57 pm
115 Comments | Readers 3794

After several months where the Brexit Party, the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Conservatives have been locked in essentially a four-way tie in the opinion polls for the next British general election, the election of Boris Johnson as Conservative party leader and prime minister has led to the Tories having a consistent lead over their rivals.

The Tories have a lead of around 10 percentage points over Labour and the Liberal Democrats, who remain essentially tied on around 21%. The Tories’ gains appear to have been made at the expense of the Brexit Party, who have fallen to 14% from previous highs of 26%.

By historical standards, 31% would be a very low Conservative vote share, only barely scraping ahead of their worst ever previous election results in 1997 (30.7%) and 1832 (29.2%). However, the unprecedented fragmentation of party support and the quirks of the first-past-the-post system mean that this result could lead to a substantial majority in the House of Commons.

Despite the inherent issues with trying to forecast how opinion polls might map to results in individual constituencies, to get a sense of how a general election might turn out given current polling, I adjusted the 2017 election results using the latest YouGov poll to capture the movement of voters between parties. Assuming no pact of any sort between the pro-remain parties. The projected totals were:

Conservatives 31% (398 seats)
Labour 22% (142)
SNP 4% (57)
Liberal Democrats 19% (28)
Plaid Cymru 1% (4)
Green 8% (1)


The article goes on to look at the coming alliance between the Liberal Dems, Plaid Cymru, and Green parties.

There does not see to be an efficient distribution.

Even with the electoral pact.

The math looks bad, unless the alliance exceeds expectations.

quote:
Should the alliance somehow be able to beat expectations, agree unity candidates in every constituency in Great Britain, and are perfectly able to combine the votes of the three parties, they will still find it difficult to deny the Tories a majority as the bulk of their gains will be at Labour’s expense.

If the Unite to Remain alliance are to deny the Tories a majority, then they will need to win seats such as South East Cambridgeshire, which is the Unite to Remain target 249 and Conservative target 310 – probably enough to put Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson in 10 Downing Street with support from the SNP and the remains of the parliamentary Labour Party.

Winning in constituencies such as this shouldn’t be impossible – the Lib Dems came within less than 6,000 votes of victory in 2010 and the Greens kept their deposit by winning 5% of the vote in 2015. But it does show how difficult denying the Conservatives a majority will be through a Lib Dem/Green pact rather than the traditional route of Labour winning in Labour/Tory battleground constituencies.


The article offers a scenario that is more unlikely than not.

Here is another long article from site. It references, and quotes, the recent long Gordon Brown article.

https://sluggerotoole.com/...but-at-the-expense-of-the-union


Replies to this message:
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 918
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 718 of 794 (861299)
08-19-2019 3:40 PM
Reply to: Message 717 by LamarkNewAge
08-12-2019 12:15 AM


Re: Third parties have a problem in efficiently spreading votes.
Interesting.

I wonder if this will affect Corbyn's current plan to call for a vote of no confidence in the current government. If it succeeds, then I believe a general election has to be called. Unless Boris can find a way to form a new government. But it appears from the polls that a general election would actually have an even more favorable outcome for his party. Which would essentially increase the likelihood of Brexit occurring.

I don't know how feasible it is for a general election to be viable prior to the October 31st Brexit deadline. Seems time is too short and Boris has indicated he won't ask for an extension. Not sure if Parliament can then take over and broker dialog with the EU asking for an extension. And there is no guarantee that the EU would even grant it.

Interesting times are ahead.


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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 918
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 719 of 794 (861853)
08-28-2019 9:09 AM


Johnson asks Queen to suspend Parliament
quote:
The government has asked the Queen to suspend Parliament just days after MPs return to work in September - and only a few weeks before the Brexit deadline.

Boris Johnson said a Queen's Speech would take place after the suspension, on 14 October, to outline his "very exciting agenda".

But it means the time MPs have to pass laws to stop a no-deal Brexit on 31 October would be cut.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49493632

Not a total surprise, since Johnson hinted at this. But how likely would it be that the Queen would agree to do so, especially on such a divisive issue? The royals have been pretty silent on Brexit, so my guess is they would prefer to just stay out of it.


Replies to this message:
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Percy
Member
Posts: 18963
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 720 of 794 (861854)
08-28-2019 10:13 AM
Reply to: Message 719 by Diomedes
08-28-2019 9:09 AM


Re: Johnson asks Queen to suspend Parliament
I'm probably walking out on a pretty thin branch commenting on British politics, but aren't requests like this to the monarch just a formality, always rubber stamped?

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
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