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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
AZPaul3
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Posts: 4512
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.2


Message 736 of 771 (862307)
09-03-2019 8:42 PM
Reply to: Message 735 by DrJones*
09-03-2019 7:59 PM


Ahh, control of the agenda. This makes sense.

Instead of the PM and his whips, who now determines the discussion? A majority vote?

They can now discuss whether to order the PM to renegotiate the Halloween drop dead date? Why not discuss whether an election is needed? Why not debate whether Brexit is stupid and should not be pursued? Debate whether Her Majesty should have Her Royal Executioner sharpen his ax?


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

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caffeine
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Posts: 1699
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 737 of 771 (862321)
09-04-2019 8:50 AM
Reply to: Message 736 by AZPaul3
09-03-2019 8:42 PM


They can now discuss whether to order the PM to renegotiate the Halloween drop dead date? Why not discuss whether an election is needed? Why not debate whether Brexit is stupid and should not be pursued? Debate whether Her Majesty should have Her Royal Executioner sharpen his ax?

I'm not really sure if Parliament can order government how to negotiate. They can refuse to ratify any agreement negotiated in contradiction to their instructions, but that doesn't really help in this case. British exit from the EU on 31st Oct is already agreed. They can vote no confidence in a government that refuses to negotiate in accordance with their instructions, but that doesn't give Parliament the ability to negotiate anything themselves, unless the opposition is willing to unite together with those expelled from the Tory party to declare confidence in a temporary caretaker government, which would then have the ability to negotiate a delay with the EU.


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caffeine
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Posts: 1699
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
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(1)
Message 738 of 771 (862322)
09-04-2019 9:50 AM


Brexit fact of the day
The last time a new PM lost the first parliamentary vote held under their premiership was 1894.

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Diomedes
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Posts: 902
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 739 of 771 (862324)
09-04-2019 9:56 AM
Reply to: Message 737 by caffeine
09-04-2019 8:50 AM


I'm not really sure if Parliament can order government how to negotiate. They can refuse to ratify any agreement negotiated in contradiction to their instructions, but that doesn't really help in this case. British exit from the EU on 31st Oct is already agreed

That is honestly the part of this whole mess that has me scratching my head. How can they pass legislation to prevent what is, in essence, the default position?

They can vote no confidence in a government that refuses to negotiate in accordance with their instructions, but that doesn't give Parliament the ability to negotiate anything themselves, unless the opposition is willing to unite together with those expelled from the Tory party to declare confidence in a temporary caretaker government, which would then have the ability to negotiate a delay with the EU.

What is interesting is that all sides are playing politics right now, which is exacerbating the problem. Boris is actually playing chicken with both the EU and Parliament, basically goading them into potentially forcing his hand and calling a general election.

Labour actually may not want a general election at this time, now that Boris is in charge. They were pushing for it when May was PM. But it appears the latest polling numbers have them under performing in the current political climate. The Lib Dems will likely siphon seats away from Labour and it is possible that the Conservatives will gain new seats for the party members that voted against them recently and were expelled.

The other aspect of all of this which is also a huge uncertainty is the actions of the EU. They actually have to grant another extension. And there is no guarantee that will happen unless there is a likelihood that there might be another referendum. Even a general election may not coax them into extending the deadline again if the polling numbers show the Conservatives ahead.


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Percy
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Posts: 18842
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 740 of 771 (862325)
09-04-2019 10:05 AM
Reply to: Message 737 by caffeine
09-04-2019 8:50 AM


I'm not sure what all the language means, some of the terminology is unfamiliar, but what we're reading over here is that parliament will vote Wednesday on whether to block the government (apparently a separate entity from parliament under the direction of Boris Johnson) from leaving the EU with no deal on 10/31.

And if I'm getting the correct sense of things, if that vote succeeds then Boris Johnson will try to schedule a general election that he hopes would give him the mandate he needs but that might also put him out of power. Apparently the opposition fears that a general election could give Johnson that mandate and so will oppose a general election, which requires the approval of 2/3 of parliament. This would leave a weakened and more vulnerable minority Johnson government in charge. Apparently that's preferable to the risk that a general election that might strengthen Johnson's hand.

Complicating matters is that Johnson is apparently engaging in a blatant level of lying of which Trump would be proud, insisting that there was progress in the EU talks (as a Trump acolyte maybe Johnson should next claim he's receiving calls from EU officials wishing to make a deal). It is true that the EU is making plans that would mitigate the pain of a no-deal Brexit, which they consider a danger prudent to plan for, but this has nothing to do with UK/EU talks.

My attempts at interpreting British government have a tendency to be off the mark, corrections welcome.

--Percy


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Diomedes
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Posts: 902
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 741 of 771 (862403)
09-04-2019 4:21 PM


Johnson calls for general election
quote:
Boris Johnson is calling on MPs to back his plan to hold an early general election on 15 October.

The PM has laid a motion in the Commons to secure the poll. To succeed, it needs the support of two-thirds of MPs.

But Labour, the SNP and the Liberal Democrats have said they will not vote in favour.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49584907


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PaulK
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Message 742 of 771 (862404)
09-04-2019 4:40 PM
Reply to: Message 741 by Diomedes
09-04-2019 4:21 PM


Even more weird
The Bill against no deal has passed in the Commons.

It was amended to say that the purpose of asking the EU for an extension would be to pass Theresa May’s Deal.

Even stranger, the amendment passed because the government forgot (perhaps on purpose) to assign Tellers to the ‘No’ lobby.

If that had happened to something of major consequence there would be eruptions. Was Boris testing the waters ? Trying to set a precedent for future shenanigans?


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DrJones*
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Posts: 1933
From: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Joined: 08-19-2004
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 743 of 771 (862407)
09-04-2019 5:29 PM
Reply to: Message 740 by Percy
09-04-2019 10:05 AM


the government (apparently a separate entity from parliament under the direction of Boris Johnson)

the government = the party with the most seats in the house of commons, the leader of the party is the prime minister (Boris). Parliament = a collective noun, like Congress.

edit: and now they've voted down Boris' attempt to call an election. *nelson laugh*

Edited by DrJones*, : No reason given.


It's not enough to bash in heads, you've got to bash in minds
soon I discovered that this rock thing was true
Jerry Lee Lewis was the devil
Jesus was an architect previous to his career as a prophet
All of a sudden i found myself in love with the world
And so there was only one thing I could do
Was ding a ding dang my dang along ling long - Jesus Built my Hotrod Ministry
Live every week like it's Shark Week! - Tracey Jordan
Just a monkey in a long line of kings. - Matthew Good
If "elitist" just means "not the dumbest motherfucker in the room", I'll be an elitist! - Get Your War On
*not an actual doctor

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Diomedes
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Posts: 902
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 744 of 771 (862408)
09-04-2019 5:35 PM
Reply to: Message 742 by PaulK
09-04-2019 4:40 PM


Re: Even more weird
The Bill against no deal has passed in the Commons.
It was amended to say that the purpose of asking the EU for an extension would be to pass Theresa May’s Deal.

Even stranger, the amendment passed because the government forgot (perhaps on purpose) to assign Tellers to the ‘No’ lobby.

If that had happened to something of major consequence there would be eruptions. Was Boris testing the waters ? Trying to set a precedent for future shenanigans?

One of the things that was noted by analysts and pundits is that the amendments are designed to stall the bill in the House of Lords. That could delay it long enough that it will not come into effect prior to the October 31st deadline.

And in other news, the call for a general election has just been rejected by Parliament. A 2/3rds majority was needed and it appears Labour voted against it.


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Tangle
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Posts: 7068
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.5


Message 745 of 771 (862410)
09-04-2019 6:50 PM


This has now become a mugger’s buggle

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


  
DrJones*
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Posts: 1933
From: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Joined: 08-19-2004
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 746 of 771 (862416)
09-04-2019 11:21 PM
Reply to: Message 744 by Diomedes
09-04-2019 5:35 PM


Re: Even more weird
the amendments are designed to stall the bill in the House of Lords. That could delay it long enough that it will not come into effect prior to the October 31st deadline.

and it's going to go through the house of Lords

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49588186?ns_linkname...


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caffeine
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Posts: 1699
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 747 of 771 (862424)
09-05-2019 3:55 AM
Reply to: Message 740 by Percy
09-04-2019 10:05 AM


I'm not sure what all the language means, some of the terminology is unfamiliar, but what we're reading over here is that parliament will vote Wednesday on whether to block the government (apparently a separate entity from parliament under the direction of Boris Johnson) from leaving the EU with no deal on 10/31.

In Parliamentary systems, when people talk about the government they mean the executive branch.

And that is indeed what's being reported, I'm just a bit confused; since as I understood it the negotiation of treaties is a prerogative of the crown - meaning it would be something were Parliament cannot tell government what to do.

No one seems to be mentioning this, though, so I'm clearly just not too educated on constitutional law. I had a look at the bill and it indeed contains the exact text of the letter the PM is to send to the European Council in the event no deal is agreed.


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Diomedes
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Posts: 902
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 748 of 771 (862434)
09-05-2019 8:52 AM


Why would the EU grant an extension?
I was thinking about this yesterday: what exactly is the incentive for the EU to even grant another extension to the Article 50 deadline at this point?

The EU's main concern was a No Deal Brexit. Parliament has now legislatively taken that off the table. At least, on paper. So if the threat of a no deal doesn't exactly exist anymore, what is to stop the EU from simply denying the extension and telling the UK to choose between revoking Article 50 or accepting the deal negotiated with Theresa May?

The EU leaders, including Macron, are under pressure to just move on from Brexit. And the sentiment in Europe seems to be that they are just as sick of it as everyone else. Granting an extension now wouldn't seem to accomplish anything anyway. Even if it is for allowing for a general election, there is no guarantee that an election would yield any favorable situation. If an election goes the way of the Conservatives, than the end result could be worse. If it goes in the way of a Labour coalition of some sort, there is no guarantee that would yield a better result regarding the status of Brexit. Maybe a 'softer Brexit', but that may not clear Parliament anyway.

From the EU's perspective, the UK government is fractured and it appears Parliament is simply in an unworkable state. As a result, I could see the EU forcing the UK's hand with an ultimatum.


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Percy
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Posts: 18842
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 749 of 771 (862438)
09-05-2019 9:16 AM
Reply to: Message 748 by Diomedes
09-05-2019 8:52 AM


Re: Why would the EU grant an extension?
I've probably said this before, but why can't Britain reverse Brexit? Why is the result of this populist resolution considered cast in stone? Every few years, as in all countries, Britain reverses itself and puts the opposite party in charge. Why can't Britain reverse itself on Brexit?

I hear that the political temperature on Brexit is a close thing, that there is no guarantee that voting on it again wouldn't again be a close affair, but that makes no sense. The British people couldn't possibly be so dense. Brexit passed because its negative aspects were not understood at the time. Now they are. How could Brexit ever pass again?

I'm sure i've again revealed my woeful ignorance of British politics, but that's the way I feel.

--Percy


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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 902
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 750 of 771 (862439)
09-05-2019 9:31 AM
Reply to: Message 749 by Percy
09-05-2019 9:16 AM


Re: Why would the EU grant an extension?
I've probably said this before, but why can't Britain reverse Brexit? Why is the result of this populist resolution considered cast in stone?

In a nutshell, politics.

The primary issue in this mess are the politicians. Including both sides.

The Conservatives are fractured between two camps: the staunch Brexiteers who want out of the EU, deal or no deal. And the more moderates who want out, but with a deal of some sort. And also some that want to remain.

The Labour party has similar divisions. Despite what many think, many in the Labour party are also Euro-skeptics, including their leader Jeremy Corbyn. So Labour is also fractured with some MPs wanting to leave the EU, but with a softer Brexit or staying in the customs union, versus other Labour MPs who want to remain.

The Lib Dems want to remain for the most part. And the DUP (Irish nationalists) actually would prefer to leave because they feel staying might result in an Irish re-unification.

So the end result is massive political gridlock with no side having any clear majority for what they want.

I don't think having another referendum is an affront to democracy, as some MPs in Britain have claimed. But ultimately, they simply don't have the votes to mandate one. When they went through the round of indicative voting a few months back, the idea of having another referendum was posited, but rejected by parliament. In fact, they pretty much rejected everything.

So in a nutshell, its a quagmire, wrapped in a clusterfuck, morphing into a buggers muddle and resulting in an omni-shambles. And here we are.


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