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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
ramoss
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Posts: 3123
Joined: 08-11-2004


(2)
Message 796 of 805 (866917)
11-17-2019 12:01 PM



  
Diomedes
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Posts: 922
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 797 of 805 (867732)
12-02-2019 12:13 PM


Boris Johnson Set for 68-Seat Majority According to YouGov Poll
quote:
Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party is on track to win its biggest majority in more than three decades, according to the most hotly anticipated poll of the general election campaign.

The Tories will win a majority of 68 seats in the Dec. 12 election, according to a YouGov poll which used a technique that more closely predicted the 2017 election than standard surveys. Such a majority would allow Johnson to deliver on his promise of getting his Brexit deal through Parliament by Jan. 31, and could also give him some freedom to make compromises in subsequent negotiations with the European Union.


Boris Johnson Set for 68-Seat Majority According to YouGov Poll

I have to admit, that is somewhat surprising. I had actually assumed we might be headed for a hung parliament. But sounds like Labour and Corbyn are not doing a good job at wooing voters.

Edited by Admin, : Fix URL where scraping yielded uninformative text.


Replies to this message:
 Message 798 by vimesey, posted 12-02-2019 12:41 PM Diomedes has not yet responded
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vimesey
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Posts: 1017
From: Birmingham, England
Joined: 09-21-2011
Member Rating: 7.2


Message 798 of 805 (867734)
12-02-2019 12:41 PM
Reply to: Message 797 by Diomedes
12-02-2019 12:13 PM


Re: Boris Johnson Set for 68-Seat Majority According to YouGov Poll
But sounds like Labour and Corbyn are not doing a good job at wooing voters.

Spot on. A number of big mistakes have been made:

1. Momentum took over the Labour party, kicked out the moderates, and are pushing a hugely radical socialist agenda, which the majority of the country is deeply concerned about. There's no genuine attempt to soften that agenda and make it more appealing.

2. Corbyn comes across as an unengaging and unsympathetic individual. He would need to be a lot brighter and happier to sell any joy of a Labour future. Instead, he comes across as a miserable, joyless git.

3. Corbyn and Momentum are in serious denial about the anti-semitism within their ranks. There is of course nothing wrong with criticising Israeli foreign and domestic policy - but the list of offences goes significantly beyond that, and in their desire to maintain the legitimacy of criticising Israeli policy, they have shied away from tackling anti-semitism.

4. They have chosen a bland and directionless Brexit policy, which continues to appeal to neither side in a polarised country.

A moderate left wing party would have walked this election. But they chose a different path.

Let's get a charismatic middle grounder back from somewhere. Until then, we have to put up with Boris's evil puppet master, Cummings, whilst waiting for the NHS to be destroyed by Humpty Dumpty's big money pals in the States.

  


Could there be any greater conceit, than for someone to believe that the universe has to be simple enough for them to be able to understand it ?

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caffeine
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Posts: 1730
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 5.8


Message 799 of 805 (867748)
12-02-2019 4:43 PM
Reply to: Message 797 by Diomedes
12-02-2019 12:13 PM


Re: Boris Johnson Set for 68-Seat Majority According to YouGov Poll
I have to admit, that is somewhat surprising. I had actually assumed we might be headed for a hung parliament. But sounds like Labour and Corbyn are not doing a good job at wooing voters.

I don't find this surprising at all - this was the obvious and expected outcome.

Brexit supporters in the north and midlands who supported Labour last time in the safe and comforting support that Brexit was going through anyway no longer feel that security. A lot of voters are sick and tired of the whole Brexit mess, and Johnson is in the luxury position of being able to promote a simple 'let's get Brexit done' message; and present himself as the man who's been sensibly fighting for that against an obstinate and out of touch elite. Labour have no simple message to contest with that.

Remember that the Tories only need about 40% of the vote to get a convincing majority. How could this election go any other way?

Swinson is a fucking moron.


This message is a reply to:
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AZPaul3
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Posts: 4785
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 800 of 805 (867774)
12-02-2019 9:13 PM
Reply to: Message 799 by caffeine
12-02-2019 4:43 PM


Re: Boris Johnson Set for 68-Seat Majority According to YouGov Poll
So, Britain is lost to the rational world. If that poll prediction pans out true then the grave injury you inflict to yourselves will be generations long.

Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Tangle
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Posts: 7194
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 801 of 805 (867781)
12-03-2019 2:42 AM
Reply to: Message 800 by AZPaul3
12-02-2019 9:13 PM


Re: Boris Johnson Set for 68-Seat Majority According to YouGov Poll
AZPaul writes:

So, Britain is lost to the rational world. If that poll prediction pans out true then the grave injury you inflict to yourselves will be generations long.

This too will pass.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 800 by AZPaul3, posted 12-02-2019 9:13 PM AZPaul3 has responded

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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 4785
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.9


(2)
Message 802 of 805 (867784)
12-03-2019 3:35 AM
Reply to: Message 801 by Tangle
12-03-2019 2:42 AM


Re: Boris Johnson Set for 68-Seat Majority According to YouGov Poll
In the eons yet to come when the old pundits gather to talk of the generations past there will be tall tales of an island nation, a people brave and free that ruled all the known world from their ships and their banks. And their crown was held aloft onto the heavens where it was said the sun never set upon its helm. And it will be told of how this great nation, in a fit of self-pity at having to share the sovereignty of empire lost in a changing world, did eat upon itself and devouring their own values did the people so shun the rest of the world in their arrogance that they disappeared from the face of the Earth never to be seen again. Thus only through the apocryphal tales of raconteurs will Camelot and Atlantis and Great Britain be e're remembered in children’s dreams.

Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
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Diomedes
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Posts: 922
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 803 of 805 (867790)
12-03-2019 9:48 AM
Reply to: Message 799 by caffeine
12-02-2019 4:43 PM


Re: Boris Johnson Set for 68-Seat Majority According to YouGov Poll
I don't find this surprising at all - this was the obvious and expected outcome.

Brexit supporters in the north and midlands who supported Labour last time in the safe and comforting support that Brexit was going through anyway no longer feel that security. A lot of voters are sick and tired of the whole Brexit mess, and Johnson is in the luxury position of being able to promote a simple 'let's get Brexit done' message; and present himself as the man who's been sensibly fighting for that against an obstinate and out of touch elite. Labour have no simple message to contest with that.

Remember that the Tories only need about 40% of the vote to get a convincing majority. How could this election go any other way?

I honestly don't have enough requisite information on the demographics and voting patterns of the UK. But I guess my surprise was that with all the talk about Brexit and the Tories bungling things during May's tenure as PM, I had assumed that there would have been a shift in sentiment. Clearly that was not the case.

Interestingly, despite the fact that I watch BBC World News all the time here in the USA, their coverage of the UK election was very minimal. Also a surprise. Maybe they adjust what is shown in the USA versus what they televise in the UK. But honestly, it has been mostly crickets with regards to the election or the campaign.

Swinson is a fucking moron.

Once again, very minimal knowledge of Jo Swinson or her platform. I know initially she stated she would 'cancel Brexit'. Maybe not the best verbiage to use. And I think she also said she won't back Corbyn.


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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caffeine
Member
Posts: 1730
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 5.8


Message 804 of 805 (867880)
12-04-2019 2:23 PM
Reply to: Message 803 by Diomedes
12-03-2019 9:48 AM


Re: Boris Johnson Set for 68-Seat Majority According to YouGov Poll
I honestly don't have enough requisite information on the demographics and voting patterns of the UK. But I guess my surprise was that with all the talk about Brexit and the Tories bungling things during May's tenure as PM, I had assumed that there would have been a shift in sentiment. Clearly that was not the case.

People were indeed disgusted with May's bungling of Brexit, but she's already gone. Johnson has come in presenting himself as the sensible voice of normal people willing to take care of things and 'get Brexit done'. He wants to use this election to say to people 'I just want to get on with things and enact the will of the British people, and look how all these politicians are interfering and making a mess'. Important thing to realise is that most people are just tired of Brexit. It's dominated the news in Britain now for years - literally - and so this is a simple and appealing message to voters.

My 'only expected outcome' rant wasn't directed at you. I'm ranting about people in Britain who should know better.

Once again, very minimal knowledge of Jo Swinson or her platform. I know initially she stated she would 'cancel Brexit'. Maybe not the best verbiage to use. And I think she also said she won't back Corbyn.

Swinson threw herself into this campaign in the deluded but, as far as I can see, genuine belief that the Liberal Democrats can actually win. This is pretty absurd on its face. The electoral arithmetic has always been against the Liberal Democrats, and I struggle to understand how she could not be intimately familiar with this fact - given her job. A huge surge in Lib Dem votes means a relatively moderate rise in representation, because their votes are so dispersed. You need regional concentration to win in a FPTP, single-member consituency system. This is not news - consider the 1983 election, when Labour got 209 seats with 27.6% of the vote, and the Liberal/SDP alliance (which would later become the Liberal Democrats) got 23 seats with 25.4% of the vote.

Swinson seems to believe that everyone opposed to Brexit will switch to voting Lib Dem in order to ensure it does not happen, which is frankly delusional and completely ignores the millions of people with tribal loyalties or who care about other things more than Brexit. And more, it completely ignores the even more central fact that the Tories can secure, and have in the past secured, huge majorities with a little over 40% of the popular vote.


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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 922
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 805 of 805 (867967)
12-05-2019 12:01 PM
Reply to: Message 804 by caffeine
12-04-2019 2:23 PM


Re: Boris Johnson Set for 68-Seat Majority According to YouGov Poll
People were indeed disgusted with May's bungling of Brexit, but she's already gone. Johnson has come in presenting himself as the sensible voice of normal people willing to take care of things and 'get Brexit done'. He wants to use this election to say to people 'I just want to get on with things and enact the will of the British people, and look how all these politicians are interfering and making a mess'. Important thing to realise is that most people are just tired of Brexit.

Brexit fatigue is certainly something that has been mentioned by various pundits. Although I thought there might have been enough backlash to warrant another referendum. But clearly at this stage, it appears the majority just want it done and would prefer to move on. Regardless of the risks.

Swinson threw herself into this campaign in the deluded but, as far as I can see, genuine belief that the Liberal Democrats can actually win. This is pretty absurd on its face. The electoral arithmetic has always been against the Liberal Democrats, and I struggle to understand how she could not be intimately familiar with this fact - given her job.

Politicians, generally speaking, have big egos. So I can't say that mindset surprises me. Many people often have a cognitive dissonance regarding how they perceive the world versus what the reality of the situation actually might be. I think social media actually makes this situation even worse since it isolates people in their own bubbles, where their views and opinions are just re-enforced by those that have like-minded views.

Ultimately, it does appear some form of Brexit will now be a done deal. I only wonder if Johnson comes to power with a big majority, will he push for additional concessions on his existing deal or just go with what he has? Being that now he can use the threat of No Deal with more efficacy if he does indeed get a big majority, it might give him confidence into pressing the EU for additional changes to the existing deal. Time will tell.


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