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Author Topic:   Important upcoming elections
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 34 of 79 (841261)
10-10-2018 12:12 PM
Reply to: Message 33 by LamarkNewAge
10-10-2018 12:47 AM


Re: I will make predictions 4 weeks before the election.
The FiveThirtyEight blog somewhat agrees with your assertions:
What’s Behind Democrats’ Shrinking Senate Odds? | FiveThirtyEight
It seems that more recently, the odds of Democrats taking the Senate have fallen. We are still a month out, so this could shift again. But judging from some other polls I have read, the Kavanaugh nomination actually energized the right to some degree.
The House is another thing altogether. Although FiveThirtyEight has the odds in the Dems favor in this case:
2018 House Forecast | FiveThirtyEight
We shall see.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 33 by LamarkNewAge, posted 10-10-2018 12:47 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied

Replies to this message:
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 37 of 79 (841309)
10-11-2018 9:42 AM
Reply to: Message 36 by Stile
10-10-2018 2:44 PM


Re: I will make predictions 4 weeks before the election.
Yeah.
It was a silly issue to hang their hat on.
Especially without having actual evidence for it.
Even if they did have solid evidence - I would bet that over 90% of all public workers of a similar age (females included) would have similar sexual assault issues in their own past. It *was* different in the past, and this *was* a very long time ago. People change, and people can easily change away from what this sexual assault entails.
The scale of such a sexual assault is more on the Aziz Ansari side of things than it is on the Harvey Weinstein side of things.
Anyone pushing a sexual assault that's more on the Aziz side is not helping. It ends up looking more like taking-advantage-of-the-#MeToo-movement-for-your-own-agenda instead of using #MeToo for what it's actually supposed to do - help victims.
The other issue is even if the Democrats opted to focus on the actual alleged lies from Kavanaugh during testimony, they would be called out as hypocrites since that is precisely the tactic that the Republicans used during the Clinton impeachment saga. Clinton was in fact impeached for perjury and obstruction of justice relating to his responses during questioning regarding the affair with Lewinski. As opposed to the actual deed itself.
And if we all recall, the Democrats basically scoffed at the notion since their assertion was it was a private matter that should not have been discussed in public. Ironically, they were somewhat 'anti-#MeToo' at that time.

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 Message 36 by Stile, posted 10-10-2018 2:44 PM Stile has seen this message but not replied

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