Message 66 of 79 (843370)
11-17-2018 12:40 AM
Weak(?) Hispanic support for hopeful Democratic Governors caused looses.
I have been looking at exit polls, and they are being updated as we speak.
In Texas, Republican Gregg Abbott beat Democrat Lupe Valdex 55.8% to 42.5% with "99%" of the vote in.
Hispanics were 26% of the Texas vote, according to the exit polls.
Abott only lost Hispanics to Valdez 53% to 42%
Cruz lost Hispanics 64% to 35%, so if Valdez had gotten 64%, then he would have added 2.9% to his total vote percentage, making it about 45.4% (based on the numbers so far).
Abbott would be at around 53.9% had he only gotten 35% of the Hispanic vote, like Cruz did.
BUT BUT BUT, in Arizona, Kirsten Sinema got 70% of the Hispanic vote, and McSalley 30%.
That level of support would bring Valdez up to 46.9%
Abbott only getting 30% of the Hispanic vote, like Sinema's opponent, would bring him down to 50.1%.
So 50% to 47% instead of 56% to 42.5%.
It would not flip the race, but Cruz would have lost if his 64-35 loss, among Hispanics who turned out, would have been 69 to 30 instead. (Arizona's Senator-elect Sinema has 70-30 among Hispanics in the exit polls)
The 50.9% to 48.3% win for Cruz, would have been 49.6% for each.
Sinema won 49.9% to 47.7%, and Hispanics were 18% of the Senate race voters, according to the exit polls.
Sinema won 70% of Hispanics, according to the exit polls.
But in the Governor's race, Republican Doug Ducey won 56.1% to 41.7%.
He lost the Hispanic vote, which was 19% in the Governor's race, 56% to 44%.
We would be looking at a 53% to 45% race, in favor of the Republican, had the Republican Governor faced the same level of Hispanic opposition as the GOP Senatorial candidate.
Rick Scott seems to have won the Senate race 50.1% to 49.9%
Republicans won the Governorship 49.6% to 49.2%
Hispanics were 15% of the vote.
The Republican Governor-elect lost Hispanics 54% to 44%
The Republican Senator-elect (outgoing Governor) lost Hispanics 54% to 45%.
Look at the Governor races in Texas, Arizona, and Florida.Hispanics, in a very racially explosive year (against Republicans if you look at the minority voter), still limited their support for Democrats to the mid 50s percentage range for these three states.And the Senate races were a mixed bag, with Hispanics supporting the Democratic candidates anywhere from 54% to 64% to 70%.
Florida was lost due to weak Hispanic support.
The Republican won 50.2% to 48.8%.
Hispanics were 5% of the vote.
Hispanics voted 62% to 37% for the Democrat.
But, take the Republican down to 32.5% to 33.0% Hispanic support, and he is suddenly below 50.0% and there would be a runnoff.
Give the Democrat 70% Hispanic support, instead of 62%, and the total electoral support is 49.2% for the Democrat.
Give the Republican 30%, instead of 37%, and the total electoral support is about 49.8%.
That would still be a narrow win for the Republican, but higher Hispanic turnout (6.5% of the vote verses an even 5%), combined with higher levels of support (70% verses 62%), would flip the race.
(the imaginary higher-Hispanic-turnout scenario, above, would not give enough support to the Democrat to avoid a runnoff, but it would give a slightly higher vote total than the Republican)
So, Florida, and perhaps Georgia would have been Democratic wins, with a level of Hispanic support on par with the kind Kirsten Sinema got in the Arizona Senate race. (Florida was so close, that just a SLIGHT sliver more Hispanic support than the 54-55% Democratic candidate got would have flipped races)
Texas would have been 50% to 47%
Arizona would have been 53% to 45%
(Georgia had no race)
Cruz would have lost, had he only gotten 30%, like McSalley got in Arizona, and his Democratic candidate performed the same as Sinema.
Florida would have flipped with an almost undetectably higher level of Hispanic support for Nelson.
Sinema actually won in Arizona, but her 70% to 30% win among Hispanics made all the difference. All the other Gubernatorial and Senatorial races saw the Democratic candidate do no better, and often much worse, than 62%.
The 62% to 37% Democratic Gubernatorial candidate percentage from Hispanics was by far the next highest level of support, in the races we are looking at. (oops, forgot about Cruz loosing 64% to 35%)
Give McSalley 35% of the Hispanic vote,like the Texas GOP situation, as opposed to the 30% she actually got, and she has 48.6%, instead of 47.7%
(Take Sinema's actual Hispanic vote of 70%, down to 64%, like the Texas Democrat O Rourke got, and Sinema is at 48.8%)
(Sinema still narrowly wins 48.8% to 48.6%, if you give her the same overall support as O Rourke and Cruz got)
Give McSalley 37%,like the Georgia GOP situation, and she is at 49.0%
Take Sinema's Hispanic support down to 62%,like the Democratic Gubernatorial candidate in Georgia, and she is at 48.4%
So the relatively good performance of the Georgia Democratic candidate, would have been too little support for Sinema to win the Arizona Senate race.
Arizona, Florida, and Texas were Senate races just looked at.
All three Senate races, in these important states, were decided by Hispanic voters.
(add to that the Georgia situation, and you have 4 "states of the future" for Democrats to look at, along with North Carolina) (Trump won all 5 by less than 6.0%)
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.