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Author Topic:   Will Trump fail to build "The Wall" if all 7 border Republican Reps oppose funding?
New Cat's Eye
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 24 of 53 (807263)
05-01-2017 9:04 PM
Reply to: Message 23 by LamarkNewAge
05-01-2017 8:30 PM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
I don't know what I'm supposed to do with this information.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 23 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-01-2017 8:30 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 26 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-01-2017 9:30 PM New Cat's Eye has responded

  
New Cat's Eye
Inactive Member


Message 27 of 53 (807337)
05-02-2017 11:21 AM
Reply to: Message 26 by LamarkNewAge
05-01-2017 9:30 PM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
Have you been following the discussion?

Yes but you posted a general reply and didn't quote anyone, so pardon me for just seeing random data posted.

Faith figured out that someone has views (relative to what one assumes that the American people think about The Wall) greatly at odds with the actual factual situation.

They find it hard to believe that 54% of American voters opposed The Wall.

The data tell us one thing (as I showed) but Faith feels that logic alone contradicts the Exit Polls.

Exit Polls don't tell you the factual situation on what Americans in general think. They tell you what Americans who answer Exit Polls think.

Trump supporters aren't the Exit-Poll type, so I would expect the results to be skewed.

The logic is that since Trump is President then the voters simply must agree with him when he proposed The Wall.

Well that's just bad logic.

I would respond with a point that he only got 46.1% of the vote so 54% opposing his candidacy would be 100% consistent with the same 54% that opposed The Wall.

What a coincidence.

You ask what you can do with the data from Arizona. The exit polling data show us not only what the actual voters thought about the specific immigration/The Wall policies,

I think you're putting too much faith in the exit polls. It's based on 1729 respondants. There's 5.5 million people in Arizona.

You're assuming that 0.03% of the population accurately reflects the whole group. I don't think it does because, as I said, Trump supporters aren't the Exit-Poll type.

Also be aware that 51% opposed The Wall in Arizona which happened to match the percentage of voters who voted against Trump.

Color me unimpressed - that seems to be a mere coincidence.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 26 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-01-2017 9:30 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 36 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-02-2017 8:40 PM New Cat's Eye has responded

  
New Cat's Eye
Inactive Member


Message 47 of 53 (807478)
05-03-2017 10:35 AM
Reply to: Message 36 by LamarkNewAge
05-02-2017 8:40 PM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
That is indeed the unscientific claim we hear often and I honestly think that you are just teeing up an examination as opposed to expressing your actual conclusion.

Well, I also pointed out the Ecological Fallacy.

But my actual conclusion is that people who voted for Trump aren't the type of people that care about exit polls - and that means that you can't assume that the results from 0.03% of the group accurately reflects the whole. Also, voting for Trump wasn't a publicly popular position, so I could see why Trump voters would have been keeping their mouths shut - which just adds weight to my opinion.

I haven't analyzed the data, and I'm not saying that the results of the polls are certainly wrong. I'm saying that you haven't presented the analysis either, and that we cannot assume that they are correct - plus I doubt they're accurate because of the reasons above.

So, as it stands, that you have two numbers that are both 51% appears to be merely a coincidence.

Maybe it's not, but you haven't shown that.

Hypothesis Number One

Donald J. Trump has voters that generally refuse to speak to Exit Poll questioners so they get left out from the surveys and thus the field data for the Exit Polls are wrong and thus the networks place weight on misleading and flat out wrong voter turnout opinion.

The final vote talley will be different from what the Exit Polls showed voters opposed and/or supported and Donald Trump will generally perform better in the actual vote on election day than the election day exit polls showed.

(I personally think this hypothesis will be null once we look at all the states data )

Yeah, that'd be cool to see. I eagerly await you supporting your argument.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 36 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-02-2017 8:40 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 48 by NoNukes, posted 05-03-2017 3:40 PM New Cat's Eye has responded

  
New Cat's Eye
Inactive Member


Message 49 of 53 (807527)
05-03-2017 3:47 PM
Reply to: Message 48 by NoNukes
05-03-2017 3:40 PM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
But my actual conclusion is that people who voted for Trump aren't the type of people that care about exit polls - and that means that you can't assume that the results from 0.03% of the group accurately reflects the whole.

What is that "conclusion" based on?

Well, there's the math - in that 0.03% is pretty small and it wouldn't be a fair assumption to just take that as representing the whole at face value.

Then, there's the knowledge of what kinds of people are supporting Trump and how they behave - they don't seem like the exit-poll type.

Given those two, I think it's fair to say that we can't assume the number accurately represents the whole.

And isn't the real question not whether they care about exit polls, but whether a particular group participated in them in enough numbers to reasonably identify their position?

By "don't care" I meant "didn't take them".


This message is a reply to:
 Message 48 by NoNukes, posted 05-03-2017 3:40 PM NoNukes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 50 by Dr Adequate, posted 05-03-2017 3:58 PM New Cat's Eye has not yet responded
 Message 51 by NoNukes, posted 05-04-2017 8:26 AM New Cat's Eye has responded

  
New Cat's Eye
Inactive Member


Message 52 of 53 (807601)
05-04-2017 9:34 AM
Reply to: Message 51 by NoNukes
05-04-2017 8:26 AM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
Your logic is pretty bad here.

Not as bad as your comprehension...


This message is a reply to:
 Message 51 by NoNukes, posted 05-04-2017 8:26 AM NoNukes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 53 by NoNukes, posted 05-05-2017 11:22 AM New Cat's Eye has not yet responded

  
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