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Author Topic:   Will Trump fail to build "The Wall" if all 7 border Republican Reps oppose funding?
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1576
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 46 of 53 (807451)
05-03-2017 8:17 AM
Reply to: Message 45 by NoNukes
05-03-2017 4:28 AM


Re: On the issue of Faith and what she feels about the future.
I was commenting on the immigration issue.

Marc said that Democrats were more moral during the upheavals of the 50s and 60s.

Faith said that she hates the immigration views of people here.

Those were my response issues.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 45 by NoNukes, posted 05-03-2017 4:28 AM NoNukes has not yet responded

  
New Cat's Eye
Inactive Member


Message 47 of 53 (807478)
05-03-2017 10:35 AM
Reply to: Message 36 by LamarkNewAge
05-02-2017 8:40 PM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
That is indeed the unscientific claim we hear often and I honestly think that you are just teeing up an examination as opposed to expressing your actual conclusion.

Well, I also pointed out the Ecological Fallacy.

But my actual conclusion is that people who voted for Trump aren't the type of people that care about exit polls - and that means that you can't assume that the results from 0.03% of the group accurately reflects the whole. Also, voting for Trump wasn't a publicly popular position, so I could see why Trump voters would have been keeping their mouths shut - which just adds weight to my opinion.

I haven't analyzed the data, and I'm not saying that the results of the polls are certainly wrong. I'm saying that you haven't presented the analysis either, and that we cannot assume that they are correct - plus I doubt they're accurate because of the reasons above.

So, as it stands, that you have two numbers that are both 51% appears to be merely a coincidence.

Maybe it's not, but you haven't shown that.

Hypothesis Number One

Donald J. Trump has voters that generally refuse to speak to Exit Poll questioners so they get left out from the surveys and thus the field data for the Exit Polls are wrong and thus the networks place weight on misleading and flat out wrong voter turnout opinion.

The final vote talley will be different from what the Exit Polls showed voters opposed and/or supported and Donald Trump will generally perform better in the actual vote on election day than the election day exit polls showed.

(I personally think this hypothesis will be null once we look at all the states data )

Yeah, that'd be cool to see. I eagerly await you supporting your argument.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 36 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-02-2017 8:40 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 48 by NoNukes, posted 05-03-2017 3:40 PM New Cat's Eye has responded

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 48 of 53 (807526)
05-03-2017 3:40 PM
Reply to: Message 47 by New Cat's Eye
05-03-2017 10:35 AM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
But my actual conclusion is that people who voted for Trump aren't the type of people that care about exit polls - and that means that you can't assume that the results from 0.03% of the group accurately reflects the whole.

What is that "conclusion" based on? And isn't the real question not whether they care about exit polls, but whether a particular group participated in them in enough numbers to reasonably identify their position?


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson

Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith

Some of us are worried about just how much damage he will do in his last couple of weeks as president, to make it easier for the NY Times and Washington post to try to destroy Trump's presidency. -- marc9000


This message is a reply to:
 Message 47 by New Cat's Eye, posted 05-03-2017 10:35 AM New Cat's Eye has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 49 by New Cat's Eye, posted 05-03-2017 3:47 PM NoNukes has responded

  
New Cat's Eye
Inactive Member


Message 49 of 53 (807527)
05-03-2017 3:47 PM
Reply to: Message 48 by NoNukes
05-03-2017 3:40 PM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
But my actual conclusion is that people who voted for Trump aren't the type of people that care about exit polls - and that means that you can't assume that the results from 0.03% of the group accurately reflects the whole.

What is that "conclusion" based on?

Well, there's the math - in that 0.03% is pretty small and it wouldn't be a fair assumption to just take that as representing the whole at face value.

Then, there's the knowledge of what kinds of people are supporting Trump and how they behave - they don't seem like the exit-poll type.

Given those two, I think it's fair to say that we can't assume the number accurately represents the whole.

And isn't the real question not whether they care about exit polls, but whether a particular group participated in them in enough numbers to reasonably identify their position?

By "don't care" I meant "didn't take them".


This message is a reply to:
 Message 48 by NoNukes, posted 05-03-2017 3:40 PM NoNukes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 50 by Dr Adequate, posted 05-03-2017 3:58 PM New Cat's Eye has not yet responded
 Message 51 by NoNukes, posted 05-04-2017 8:26 AM New Cat's Eye has responded

  
Dr Adequate
Member
Posts: 16107
Joined: 07-20-2006
Member Rating: 8.3


(1)
Message 50 of 53 (807528)
05-03-2017 3:58 PM
Reply to: Message 49 by New Cat's Eye
05-03-2017 3:47 PM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
Then, there's the knowledge of what kinds of people are supporting Trump and how they behave - they don't seem like the exit-poll type.

They certainly seem like shy retiring types who are coy and diffident about expressing their opinions.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 49 by New Cat's Eye, posted 05-03-2017 3:47 PM New Cat's Eye has not yet responded

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 51 of 53 (807591)
05-04-2017 8:26 AM
Reply to: Message 49 by New Cat's Eye
05-03-2017 3:47 PM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
Well, there's the math - in that 0.03% is pretty small and it wouldn't be a fair assumption to just take that as representing the whole at face value.

Just how many folks do you think show up in most national polls? If you were sampling a city for air quality, what percentage of the city air would you try to run through your equipment?

Statistically, what percentage of 63 million people is required to have a reasonable sample?

By "don't care" I meant "didn't take them".

If you did not mean to base your statement on "types", then how are you concluding that they did not participate when clearly some did? You are saying that Trump supporters seem like the kind of folks that "didn't take them?" How can you conclude that?

Your logic is pretty bad here.

Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.

Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson

Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith

Some of us are worried about just how much damage he will do in his last couple of weeks as president, to make it easier for the NY Times and Washington post to try to destroy Trump's presidency. -- marc9000


This message is a reply to:
 Message 49 by New Cat's Eye, posted 05-03-2017 3:47 PM New Cat's Eye has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 52 by New Cat's Eye, posted 05-04-2017 9:34 AM NoNukes has responded

  
New Cat's Eye
Inactive Member


Message 52 of 53 (807601)
05-04-2017 9:34 AM
Reply to: Message 51 by NoNukes
05-04-2017 8:26 AM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
Your logic is pretty bad here.

Not as bad as your comprehension...


This message is a reply to:
 Message 51 by NoNukes, posted 05-04-2017 8:26 AM NoNukes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 53 by NoNukes, posted 05-05-2017 11:22 AM New Cat's Eye has not yet responded

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 53 of 53 (807767)
05-05-2017 11:22 AM
Reply to: Message 52 by New Cat's Eye
05-04-2017 9:34 AM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
Not as bad as your comprehension...

What I do comprehend is that your attempt to paint the sampling of Trump voters as somehow harder than taking any other sample is without basis.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson

Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith

Some of us are worried about just how much damage he will do in his last couple of weeks as president, to make it easier for the NY Times and Washington post to try to destroy Trump's presidency. -- marc9000


This message is a reply to:
 Message 52 by New Cat's Eye, posted 05-04-2017 9:34 AM New Cat's Eye has not yet responded

  
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