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Author Topic:   Gun Control III
AZPaul3
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Posts: 4978
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.9


Message 827 of 848 (862098)
08-31-2019 7:18 PM


Midland-Odessa
Midland-Odessa Texas. 5 dead, 20+ injured, shooter killed.

Another Texas mass shooting


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

Replies to this message:
 Message 828 by Percy, posted 09-01-2019 6:15 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19789
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 828 of 848 (862137)
09-01-2019 6:15 PM
Reply to: Message 827 by AZPaul3
08-31-2019 7:18 PM


Re: Midland-Odessa
Today on Meet the Press I watched a Republican (Rick Scott, FL) and a Democrat (Julián Castro, TX) offer useless solutions to the gun problem. Rick Scott deemed it a mental health problem while Julián Castro called for modestly tightening up gun registration laws. Scott's approach is no solution at all while Castro's is at least a move in the right direction, but neither will significantly reduce our high gun death rate because the real problem is too many guns and too lax gun regulations.

Here's a table of guns per capita and the gun homicide rate for North American and European countries. The United States is an extreme outlier. We have at least three times as many guns per capita as any other country, and our homicide rate is at least four times greater:

CountryGuns Per 100 PersonsGun Homicides per 100,000
United States120.54.46
Serbia39.10.61
Canada34.70.75
Finland32.40.32
Iceland31.70.00
Austria30.00.12
North Macedonia29.80.19
Norway28.80.10
Switzerland27.60.15
Sweden23.10.32
Portugal21.30.42
France19.60.21
Germany19.61.01
Luxembourg18.90.00
Greece17.60.53
Slovenia15.60.20
Italy14.40.35
Croatia13.70.35
Belgium12.70.14
Czech Republic12.50.15
Hungary10.50.11
Latvia10.50.18
Denmark9.90.11
Bulgaria8.40.34
Spain7.50.15
Ireland7.20.21
Estonia5.00.15
Moldova3.00.45
Netherlands2.60.29
Romania2.60.04
Poland2.50.04

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 827 by AZPaul3, posted 08-31-2019 7:18 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
 Message 829 by Tangle, posted 09-02-2019 10:39 AM Percy has responded

  
Tangle
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Posts: 7619
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 829 of 848 (862153)
09-02-2019 10:39 AM
Reply to: Message 828 by Percy
09-01-2019 6:15 PM


Re: Midland-Odessa
Looking at those numbers I couldn't really see a strong correlation between guns and homicides but was surprised to find that it's r=0.87 - a very strong correlation.

But if you remove the USA as a massive outlier, you get r=0.27 - a very weak correlation.

Not sure what to think about that ... except that the USA is weird.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 828 by Percy, posted 09-01-2019 6:15 PM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 830 by Chiroptera, posted 09-02-2019 11:04 AM Tangle has not yet responded
 Message 831 by Percy, posted 09-02-2019 3:43 PM Tangle has responded

  
Chiroptera
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Posts: 6914
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.7


(1)
Message 830 of 848 (862155)
09-02-2019 11:04 AM
Reply to: Message 829 by Tangle
09-02-2019 10:39 AM


Re: Midland-Odessa
Not sure what to think about that ... except that the USA is weird.

1. Americans are a very violent people.

2. You shouldn't let violent people have guns.

Edited by Chiroptera, : Typo.

Edited by Chiroptera, : Another one.


Hard as it is to fathom, Mr President, just because you’re the leader of the free world doesn’t entitle you to a free pass. Unfortunately, just a free press. -- Neil Cavuto

This message is a reply to:
 Message 829 by Tangle, posted 09-02-2019 10:39 AM Tangle has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19789
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 831 of 848 (862165)
09-02-2019 3:43 PM
Reply to: Message 829 by Tangle
09-02-2019 10:39 AM


Re: Midland-Odessa
Tangle writes:

Looking at those numbers I couldn't really see a strong correlation between guns and homicides but was surprised to find that it's r=0.87 - a very strong correlation.

But if you remove the USA as a massive outlier, you get r=0.27 - a very weak correlation.

Before I posted I did a scatterplot on the data just to see if it looked like there was strong correlation, though I didn't expect one other than the one datapoint for the US. I figured it would take large differences in the number of guns per capita (like the one between the US and Europe) to reveal a strong correlation given other factors, such as gun regulations and culture.

What did you do to extract the numbers into your analysis tool?

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 829 by Tangle, posted 09-02-2019 10:39 AM Tangle has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 832 by Tangle, posted 09-02-2019 4:20 PM Percy has responded

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 7619
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 2.8


(1)
Message 832 of 848 (862171)
09-02-2019 4:20 PM
Reply to: Message 831 by Percy
09-02-2019 3:43 PM


Re: Midland-Odessa
Percy writes:

What did you do to extract the numbers into your analysis tool?

Nothing clever, I just typed in the numbers into Excel and used its CORREL function.

If you used Excel to draw your scattergraph you can add a trendline and tick the r2 function box too.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 831 by Percy, posted 09-02-2019 3:43 PM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 833 by Percy, posted 09-02-2019 6:13 PM Tangle has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19789
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 833 of 848 (862182)
09-02-2019 6:13 PM
Reply to: Message 832 by Tangle
09-02-2019 4:20 PM


Re: Midland-Odessa
I also put the numbers in Excel, using Emacs, then just used the scatterplot function. I didn't know about the trendline or the "r2 function box", I'll check it out.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 832 by Tangle, posted 09-02-2019 4:20 PM Tangle has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19789
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 834 of 848 (862281)
09-03-2019 3:03 PM


Bad Solutions Moving Forward, Good Solutions Stalled
Guns are moving into the classroom. Anyone who understands that guns increase rather than lessen danger knows this is a bad move. It's only a matter of time before a teacher or staff member carries out a shooting, perhaps a mass shooting, maybe an accidental shooting. Brief excerpt:

quote:
Among the most extreme and divisive options, some school districts have chosen to arm staff members, putting guns in the hands of teachers to protect schools from guns in the hands of students.


A pistol in the waistband of a teacher, who
will wear an outer shirt to hide the weapon at school.

AbE: Does that look like a safe way to carry a gun? Does that gun look very effective against an assault weapon with a 50 round magazine?

--Percy

Edited by Percy, : AbE.

Edited by Percy, : Formatting.


  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19789
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 835 of 848 (866727)
11-15-2019 6:58 AM


It's been mostly quiet for a little while, there's no need to mention every single shooting, but yesterday saw another school shooting: 3 off-duty officers dropped off their children at a California school. Seconds later, gunfire erupted

Before classes had started, Nathaniel Berhow, a student at Saugus High School, walked into a quad area and removed a .45-caliber pistol from his backpack. He shot five students, killing two, then critically shot himself. He's in the hospital. It was his 16th birthday. It is not known where he got the gun at this time.

To quote a letter to the LA Times, "Until we control the madness of our gun fixation, we are doomed."

--Percy

Edited by Percy, : Grammar.


  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19789
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 836 of 848 (866974)
11-18-2019 9:59 AM


Ten People Shot, Four Fatally, at Fresno Backyard Party
Four Asian Americans were killed and six others shot at a backyard party in Fresno, California: Fresno Shooting: 4 Dead, 6 Injured In Mass Shooting During Fresno Backyard Gathering

The clear conclusion from this is that everyone at the party should have been armed. Everyone could have pulled out guns and shot anyone they saw with a gun. Perfect solution!

--Percy


  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19789
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 837 of 848 (868697)
12-17-2019 9:27 AM


Here's something everybody needs, something for that "hard to buy for" person on your Christmas list:

Yes, folks, a gun is a shield. With a gun in this holster you'll be protected from all the people out there trying to kill you.

This ad started playing when I clicked on a CBS News link in Google.

--Percy


  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19789
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


(1)
Message 838 of 848 (868852)
12-19-2019 7:42 AM


Four Shot at San Antonio Mall
Four people shot while leaving San Antonio mall, reads a CBS headline. Four people were standing in a breezeway just outside the South Park Mall when three men in a black Dodge Charger drove by and fired numerous shots into the group.

The people shot have no one to blame but themselves. This is Texas, after all. They should have all been carrying and exercising hypervigilence (a la New Cat's Eye's claim of hypervigilence to the point where no one could ever shoot him unawares) so that this Dodge could never sneak up on them. Sure, they might have shot up a few cars filled with innocent people that appeared suspicious, but that's the price we pay for living in a free society.

There is one other possibility: take away the guns. No guns, no shootings.

--Percy


  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19789
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 839 of 848 (868863)
12-19-2019 9:14 AM


What We Know About Gun Violence
What we know about gun violence isn't much because federally funded research pretty much dried up after the Dicky Amendment passed in 1996: "None of the funds made available for injury prevention and control at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may be used to advocate or promote gun control." Since any research produced could be used to "advocate or promote gun control," gun research pretty much died at that point.

But we do know more than nothing, and the September/October issue of Discover Magazine ran the article The Science of Gun Violence. I wish I could link to it, but I couldn't find a publicly available link, and at this moment their login server appears to be down, so I can't even log in to find it, but I'll summarize and/or quote a few things from it.

There's a growing desire among researchers, particularly epidemiologists, social scientists and statisticians for filling in a missing piece in the gun violence discussion. They believe science can make contributions that could reduce gun injuries and fatalities.

One scientist was quoted saying:

quote:
"We haven't been investing as a country in research in this area in the same way that we have in motor vehicle accidents, for instance, where for [more than] 35 years we've had an entire agency devoted to that, collecting fantastic data. The result has been that motor vehicle accidents are [a] quarter fo what they were at the time the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration was started."

Given that motor vehicle deaths are roughly the same as firearm deaths, there should be a National Gun Safety Administration. In terms of research the US spends $63/fatality for gun deaths and $1000/fatality for motor vehicle deaths. That's quite a disparity.

About suicide the article says that 60% of gun deaths are suicide, which we already knew, but it also says something that is undoubtedly true and that has been said here but been disputed: suicide is often an impulsive spur-of-the-moment act, and guns are far more effective as a means of suicide than any other method. Only 13% of suicide attempts succeed, unless the method was a gun, in which case the success rate is 90%. The majority of people who make a failed suicide attempt rarely make a second attempt.

Swiss soldiers take their guns home, and when the Swiss halved the size of their army in the early 2000's it caused a corresponding drop in suicides by soldiers. When Israel instituted a policy requiring soldiers to leave their guns on base when they went home on leave there was a 40% drop in suicides among soldiers. Gun availability combined with gun lethality contributes greatly to suicide rates.

Only 10% of gun fatalities are women, but they're far more likely to be killed by an intimate partner.

The U.S. has a gun homicide rate 25 times higher than in other high-income countries. Interestingly, the U.S. homicide rate by other means is also significantly higher, 2.7 times.

Handguns cause more fatalities than any other type of firearm.

--Percy


  
Phat
Member
Posts: 13926
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.3


Message 840 of 848 (869459)
12-30-2019 3:59 PM


Texas Church Shooting II
Breaking this morning is this story from Texas:
River Oaks Man Identified as Gunman in White Settlement Church Shooting More will undoubtedly come out, but the records show that it was a transient white male with prior convictions and who used a shotgun. Two were killed. A church security guard took him out.
Two notable quotes:

  • "I was so surprised because I did not know that so many in the church were armed," Isabel Arreola said, telling the Fort Worth Star-Telegram that she was sitting near the gunman, had never seen him before and that he "made her uncomfortable."
  • Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton Hopes More Churches Will Prepare, Train for Shootings
  • Man Who Shot Church Gunman Says He ‘Killed an Evil,’ Not a Human

    Maybe there is something about churches and religion that attracts these deranged people. As Percy will point out, however---the common denominator is that they all have firearms, even after being cited for illegal possession of the same years ago.

    Edited by Thugpreacha, : No reason given.

    Edited by Thugpreacha, : No reason given.


    Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
    "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
    ~"We, humans, are engaged in an ongoing war of ideologies. I see it in this microcosm of EvC Forum just as I see it in the governments and attitudes of people throughout the world. Take your pick: Oppression or Seduction .
    "~Thugpreacha

    You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo

    “As the fear of God is the beginning of wisdom, so the denial of God is the height of foolishness.”
    ? R.C. Sproul, Essential Truths of the Christian Faith


  •   
    Percy
    Member
    Posts: 19789
    From: New Hampshire
    Joined: 12-23-2000
    Member Rating: 2.4


    (1)
    Message 841 of 848 (869913)
    01-08-2020 11:28 AM


    Licenses Should be Required of All Guns Owners
    Every gun incident prompts a number of people to purchase guns for self defense, never mind that they're not interested in immersing themselves in the gun culture of training and practice and gun safety. While making a person more unsafe immediately after the initial purchase, the passage of time makes the gun increasingly unsafe. As I've described before, the passage of time introduces the possibilities of carelessness, recklessness, depression, suicidal thoughts, homicidal thoughts, mental illness and age accompanied by mental and physical decline.

    Video shows 93-year-old shooting a man twice over water damage in his apartment, police say describes an elderly man aiming a gun at management office employees of his apartment complex and shooting one of them twice. Here's the man:

    Surface appearances can be deceiving, but given what he's done we know that this mans appearance really tells us all we need to know. He is too elderly and cognitively diminished to have possession of a gun.

    Licensing that requires periodic renewal, say every five years just like for a driver's license, would have caught this man's problems years ago. Gun licensing should be required in all 50 states and all territories. Uniformity by placing the licensing requirement at the federal level would be best.

    --Percy


    Replies to this message:
     Message 842 by vimesey, posted 01-08-2020 11:46 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply
     Message 843 by Hyroglyphx, posted 01-10-2020 1:01 PM Percy has responded

      
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