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Author Topic:   The spectacular fall of YEC beliefs
Modulous
Member (Idle past 415 days)
Posts: 7789
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


(1)
Message 1 of 198 (832967)
05-13-2018 5:55 PM


Source material

Between 1982 and 2005 belief in Special creation amongst the American population hovered between 44-47%

2005 was the year of the Kitzmiller trial - a peak year in the evolution vs creationism debate. The year I joined EvCForum!

Between 2005-2011 acceptance in Special Creation dropped from 46% down to 40%, enjoying a brief resurgence in 2012 back to 46% before beginning a five year crash. As of 2017 that number was at 38% - for the first time equalling the number of people that believe in a Theistic Evolutionary perspective.

Since the year 2000 acceptance in evolution alone has gone from 9% to 19%

Since 2000 YEC has dropped in support 0.5 percentage points per year on average, and Evolution alone has increased in its support at the same rate. Education is a big factor in determining acceptance of evolution, theistic or non-theistic. Graduating from college seems to halve the number of people who subscribe to YEC beliefs. Nearly 60% of people accept evolution to some extent now.

It seems evolution is winning the debate against Special Creation, with Theistic Evolution largely unchanged over time. Big court cases (Kitzmiller,2005), flashy productions whining about persecution (Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed, 2008), attempting to change things at a legislative level (Anti-Science bill in Indiana....., 2012) - are either backfiring or merely delaying the decline in YEC belief.

Alongside this trend, an absence of belief in God is rising - especially amongst the young. How long can this debate hold out? Will YEC acceptance continue to crash? Between 2012 and 2017 it dropped 8 points (1.6 points per year). Will we see acceptance of YEC beliefs drop beneath 25% within the decade? Will the rate increase or level out before then?

As the number of believers decrease, the amount of money to be made from them decreases. I believe therefore the decline is practically inevitable, though it may rally a few times before it becomes irrelevant.


Replies to this message:
 Message 3 by Stile, posted 05-15-2018 2:56 PM Modulous has responded
 Message 5 by Tangle, posted 05-16-2018 2:51 AM Modulous has responded
 Message 181 by mike the wiz, posted 05-26-2018 7:46 AM Modulous has responded

  
Modulous
Member (Idle past 415 days)
Posts: 7789
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 4 of 198 (832982)
05-15-2018 5:38 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by Stile
05-15-2018 2:56 PM


When thought of in that context.. it's pretty amazing.

Frankly it's a big enough deal to warrant it's own 'age' / 'revolution' tag. Oh wait.... its utterly mind blowing.

I don't know. How fast do old people die?

It seems that really is the clock, right?

My guess is the rate-of-decline will level out or decrease, but the general decline will continue to happen until it becomes nothing more than a fringe-thing.

Sounds reasonable. Looking at other issues, such as acceptance of homosexual relationships shows a similar pattern. I still expect a catastrophic tipping a point to exist, even though there is no evidence to suggest it. Perhaps when history has played out, 2005-2025 will look like a crash compare with the rest of the data!

However, here's a speculative theory. The numbers dropping of YEC are reflecting in a rise in evolution only. But it doesn't seem realistic to suppose the YEC folks are going directly to evolution only. So I speculate then that many of those take the theistic evolution step as an intermediary but as many of them that join those ranks are leaving them. As YEC goes down below the theistic evolution numbers, the amount of them becoming theistic evolutionists will decrease - but the amount of theistic evolutionists that become evolution only will stay the same, leading to a peculiar spiking motion. Coupled with the tipping point of 'most religious people are theistic evolutionists so that seems like a respectable religious position' as a perception and this point in history may turn out to be a significant one for this debate.

Maybe they're getting stealthier - but the Creationist folks do seem to be less public these days...

Yeah. Pretty much what I think.

But... does this mean we will have a more evidence-driven society?
I don't think so.

Gawd no! Well, maybe a slightly more evidence-driven society - but hardly revolutionary I think.

That is, there are plenty of non-evidence-ideas to believe in.
Some are more socially acceptable than others.

Yeah - and we don't even need to look at outlandish (heh) ideas like alien visitors. There's plenty of opportunities to go off the rails in social attitudes, politics etc.

If the social-acceptance of religion falls then those who were "religious" (in the sense that it was a non-evidence-driven idea that spoke to them personally) will likely just find another non-evidence-driven idea that speaks to them personally that is still socially acceptable.

It will take a bit more time to get society's head around to treating the problem instead of the symptom.

The human condition. Since you raised it, it might be worth noting that we science minded / evidence seeking folk are not immune. Not only can we latch on to bad scientific or social ideas like the rest of humanity - but one could even argue that the 'right' ideas are only accepted because they 'speak to us personally' with evidence being our rationalization. Though, as far rationalizations go - it's a pretty good one


This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by Stile, posted 05-15-2018 2:56 PM Stile has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 56 by Stile, posted 05-17-2018 10:29 AM Modulous has responded

  
Modulous
Member (Idle past 415 days)
Posts: 7789
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 22 of 198 (833051)
05-16-2018 12:15 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by Tangle
05-16-2018 2:51 AM


The Uk is around 10-15% creationist - which I still find shocking high even though it's mostly hidden so not as obvious as the US. And it seems to be on an increasing trend as immigration from Muslim countries and Estern Europe grows. There's still a very long way to go if you take a world view.

I don't know where you are based in the UK exactly but 10% doesn't seem unexpected to me. About 4-5% of the population is Muslim and they are overwhelmingly Creationist - even the ones that 'aren't really' creationist would be unlikely to say they weren't.

I think it's reasonable however, to look to the US as a 'soft target' - somewhere where attitudes are more amenable to change.

I don't think we can rely on the internet - it works both ways there are huge amounts of creationist and religious sites out there and the believers are just as capable with their propoganda as any other tribe; kids can remain inside their creationist bubble quite easily

But as there numbers decrease, it becomes increasingly difficult to remain in that bubble. It looks like acceptance of evolution is slowly creeping southwards. The evidence suggests young people are less likely to reject evolution than old people, so the bubble enforcement seems to weakening.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by Tangle, posted 05-16-2018 2:51 AM Tangle has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 23 by Tangle, posted 05-16-2018 12:42 PM Modulous has responded

  
Modulous
Member (Idle past 415 days)
Posts: 7789
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 24 of 198 (833061)
05-16-2018 2:17 PM
Reply to: Message 23 by Tangle
05-16-2018 12:42 PM


To be honest, although I was born and raised a traditional Christian in an overwhelmingly Christian community the stuff I hear you Americans talking about never ever came up. Evolution was universally taught and young earth was never ever raised. Maybe that's an English Christain thing.

The first time, I let it slide as I assume you were talking to the 'crowd' - but I am definitely not an American.

Sure, it's easier go from 40% to 30% than from 10% to 0%. And it's great to see it happening.

I'd go further and say it's easier to go from 40% to 30% than it is to go from 90% to 80%


This message is a reply to:
 Message 23 by Tangle, posted 05-16-2018 12:42 PM Tangle has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 33 by Tangle, posted 05-16-2018 5:10 PM Modulous has acknowledged this reply

  
Modulous
Member (Idle past 415 days)
Posts: 7789
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 36 of 198 (833097)
05-16-2018 7:16 PM
Reply to: Message 34 by Faith
05-16-2018 5:33 PM


ask an ye shall receive (sort of)

{Excuse my Rhotacism


This message is a reply to:
 Message 34 by Faith, posted 05-16-2018 5:33 PM Faith has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 38 by Faith, posted 05-16-2018 9:58 PM Modulous has responded

  
Modulous
Member (Idle past 415 days)
Posts: 7789
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 57 of 198 (833137)
05-17-2018 1:22 PM
Reply to: Message 38 by Faith
05-16-2018 9:58 PM


Re: ask an ye shall receive (sort of)
Wow, I must say I really DID enjoy that, immensely.

I'm glad to hear it!

Nice voice by the way. OK, maybe lower than I expected? More baritone than tenor? Softer than I expected.

Thank you. I probably am closer to baritone than tenor, yes. I think I'm an awful singer - but my wife - who regularly sings in front of audiences insists I'm not that bad. She may be trying to make me feel better

As for the accent I hear some Scottish in it? But what do I know?

I don't think so, but I have Scottish great grandparents so maybe its there - I actually used to speak with a very distinctive Caribbean accent as that was where my first school was - so that probably influenced it in peculiar ways. The closest accent to mine I can find online is probably this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OktDllQvXIY

That is - when I hear her speak, I don't really hear the accent - it just sounds normal.

ABE: I had to look up "rhotacism" -- but I didn't hear it in your voice. I guess I'll have to listen more.

It's not always obvious, but I noticed it in the last sentence I read out: 'it may rally a few times before it becomes irrelevant'. Especially the word 'rally' which I'm guessing sounds odd because of the 'r' and the 'l's close to one another which is why 'irrelevant' also hinted at it. Apparently it's increasingly common to speak this way and as long as you can still hit the sound reasonably well it isn't considered a speech impediment.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 38 by Faith, posted 05-16-2018 9:58 PM Faith has not yet responded

  
Modulous
Member (Idle past 415 days)
Posts: 7789
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 58 of 198 (833138)
05-17-2018 1:34 PM
Reply to: Message 56 by Stile
05-17-2018 10:29 AM



Just the fact that it is decreasing... and it has reached this point... and public opinion is open to "other non-Christian or even non-religious" ideas as well as public opinion even beginning to frown upon certain "cult-like" Christian sects... with these facts I don't think it really matters what they're planning. It's reached the 'point-of-no-return' so to speak whether they acknowledge it or not and I highly doubt it will ever recover to what it once was.

There's simply too much facts and education out there for any "significantly large" section of the population to push such belief-in-things-without-proper-support and sustain itself.

Yeah - I think the strategy for many is simply 'this is what I believe' rather than trying to justify their beliefs with scientific principles.

For example, remembering to apply such ideas even to The Scientific Method as being our best method for obtaining facts so far.
Is there a better method? A better method in some situations perhaps if not all?
I don't know. Maybe. I can't all-encompassingly prove that The Scientific Method is fundamentally "best" for everything for all time.
I can't think of one that's better, though.
Can someone else?
I'll leave that open to anyone who thinks they can prove their method is better, and attempt to give it fair review.

There are still areas in the human experience that science doesn't really work for. Although we can both agree that for trying to understand the way the world operates and explaining the way things are - there are a number of domains where science can't help us.

First: Aesthetics. While science can be used to understand what people generally find aesthetically pleasing and even to explain why, there is an subjective/experiential element which remains difficult or even inappropriate for scientific exploration.

Morality - although science can be used to understand relevant facts in making moral decisions - it can't really tell us what the correct moral criteria actually are.

Meaning - what is the right way to live, what gives us meaning, what should be meaningful, things of this nature - similar to morality.

Science - and of course, we run into problems when we try to justify science itself. There's a sort of regression problem.


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 Message 56 by Stile, posted 05-17-2018 10:29 AM Stile has acknowledged this reply

  
Modulous
Member (Idle past 415 days)
Posts: 7789
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


(1)
Message 139 of 198 (833416)
05-20-2018 7:39 PM
Reply to: Message 137 by Faith
05-20-2018 7:09 PM


Re: Cut the ad hominems.
the Koran tells its readers to kill Christians and Jews.

quote:
Surely those who believe, and those who are Jews, and the Christians, and the Sabians... they shall have their reward from their Lord, and there is no fear for them

quote:
And they say: None shall enter the garden (or paradise) except he who is a Jew or a Christian.

quote:
And the Jews say: The Christians do not follow anything (good) and the Christians say: The Jews do not follow anything (good) while they recite the (same) Book. Even thus say those who have no knowledge, like to what they say; so Allah shall judge between them on the day of resurrection in what they differ.

quote:
And the Jews will not be pleased with you, nor the Christians until you follow their religion. Say: Surely Allah's guidance, that is the (true) guidance.

quote:
And they say: Be Jews or Christians, you will be on the right course.

quote:
do you say that Ibrahim and Ismail and Yaqoub and the tribes were Jews or Christians?

quote:
Ibrahim was not a Jew nor a Christian but he was (an) upright (man), a Muslim

quote:
And with those who say, We are Christians, We made a covenant, but they neglected a portion of what they were reminded of, therefore We excited among them enmity and hatred to the day of resurrection; and Allah will inform them of what they did.

quote:
And the Jews and the Christians say: We are the sons of Allah and His beloved ones. Say: Why does He then chastise you for your faults? Nay, you are mortals from among those whom He has created, He forgives whom He pleases and chastises whom He pleases; and Allah's is the kingdom of the heavens and the earth and what is between them, and to Him is the eventual coming.

quote:
do not take the Jews and the Christians for friends; they are friends of each other;

quote:
and you will certainly find the nearest in friendship to those who believe (to be) those who say: We are Christians; this is because there are priests and monks among them and because they do not behave proudly.

quote:
And the Jews say: Uzair is the son of Allah; and the Christians say: The Messiah is the son of Allah; these are the words of their mouths; they imitate the saying of those who disbelieved before; may Allah destroy them; how they are turned away!

quote:
Surely those who believe and those who are Jews and the Sabeans and the Christians and the Magians and those who associate (others with Allah)-- surely Allah will decide between them on the day of resurrection; surely Allah is a witness over all things.

That's all the references to Christians. Please point out where the reader is asked to kill them.

Oh right if you kill some infidels, and you are a man, you get to have a carnally thrilling eternity served by beautiful young women.

Well, everyone in heaven gets perfect companions in Islam. Killing infidels is only permitted if they war against you and oppress you. Which is the same as God's position in the Bible. Killing people of the Book just because is a grave sin and won't get you to heaven.

Allah says be kind to be people, even strangers. Allah will make the judgements, and will punish those that fall short. It is not given to his followers to do so.

Do you think spreading disinformation about Islam will bolster support for Young Earth Creationism? I mean Muslims are way more likely to be Young Earth Creationists than Christians are, it seems like in this battle you should be on side with them.


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 Message 137 by Faith, posted 05-20-2018 7:09 PM Faith has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 140 by Faith, posted 05-20-2018 7:46 PM Modulous has acknowledged this reply

  
Modulous
Member (Idle past 415 days)
Posts: 7789
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 149 of 198 (833426)
05-20-2018 9:20 PM
Reply to: Message 142 by Faith
05-20-2018 8:08 PM


Re: It's in the hadiths, not the Koran, sorry
The Prophet of Allah has promised us that the Jews will gather in Palestine, and that the Muslims will fight them, and totally kill them. Even the stone and the tree will say: "Oh Muslims, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him."

That is about the tribulations of the endtimes. This is after the return of Jesus, rise of the antichrist etc. There will only be two groups of people that matter. Those that follow God properly (who will be Muslims), and those that are not. The good people amongst Jews and Christians will convert to being Muslims when the truth is in front of them, so only the evil will remain Jews and Christians.

The slaves of Allah (not just Muslims) will hunt down the evil ones that refuse to accept the truth out of a hard heart and even the world will help them. This prophecy suggests a particular instance of this occurring in Palestine.

This is not a command to kill Jews, but a description that the Jews that deny Jesus and God to their face and follow the antichrist, will face violence and punishment. And that includes people who say they are Muslims but aren't really.

However, the good Muslims, presumably in your view - those that would include those that believe in a Young Earth and the special Creation. Do you think threatening violence and tribulations for not believing in Special Creation will serve to bolster those beliefs or do you worry that people will begin to grow weary of such threats and see them as age old techniques (whether they are true or not) and move away from believing the truth?

And I'm having that problem again of not being able to post because of being directed to the log-in page and the "delete cookies" isn't working.

Huh. I don't know what to suggest, then.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 142 by Faith, posted 05-20-2018 8:08 PM Faith has not yet responded

  
Modulous
Member (Idle past 415 days)
Posts: 7789
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


(1)
Message 182 of 198 (833758)
05-26-2018 10:06 AM
Reply to: Message 181 by mike the wiz
05-26-2018 7:46 AM


It seems to me you are basically representing creationism as, "YEC", but it seems you allude to the fact you would included IDists as creationists, and so it is reasonable that creationism as a whole, according to evolutionists, is YEC/OEC/ID.

(You can't have your cake as an ornament, and also eat it.)

I am not representing creationism as YEC. I'm talking about the drop-off of YEC beliefs because YEC beliefs are the ones that are falling numbers. This isn't about the beliefs of OECs - although I do mention their numbers are largely stable. So I don't know where you got any of that from.

So then the real question is, "what do the statistics mean?" For example you said educating people tends to lead to less YECs according to the statistics. I would ask, "what is the significance of that?"

One of two things. Either the critical thinking that is taught at higher education causes people to examine other ideas they have OR the kind of people that go and get higher education are less inclined to have YEC beliefs in the first place. Or both.

For example as you have already noted, they won't allow any kind of creationism in schools, so they are only teaching evolution. So it seems to me the statistics could just as easily support the notion that it is easy to brainwash students by only telling them one side of a story.

Well the biggest dropoffs don't occur during school so that hypothesis doesn't seem right. The big dropoffs are from college and beyond. Most subjects aren't even related to Creationism, evolution or cosmology so the fact that they're not taught in say economics, business, computer science, mathematics etc is immaterial.

48% of high school students or graduates believe in a 10K old specially created world.
42% of those with 'some college'
24% of college graduates
21% of postgraduates.

Confronted by all of that, "science" what can most young brains do other than to say, "wow it must be true", if they are not exposed to a critical analysis of all of those evolutionary views?

They are exposed to critical analysis, but they aren't being exposed to the bad logic and fallacious arguments of creationism. Mostly because they aren't studying anything to do with origins. However, there are still places that people can go to 'learn' all that creationist stuff - its just generally speaking there isn't a big market for spending 10s of thousands of dollars to do it.

Big deal, that doesn't affect my faith as an individual

This discussion was not intended to affect your faith.

and it isn't going to make me believe 200 identical genes for echolocation in bats and whales, could come about separately

Great. Although I should point out that the genes aren't identical - you've misunderstood the research which points out there are 200 loci that have converged, not genes. And you are welcome to disbelieve that the same search algorithm may converge on similar solutions to the same problem all you like. It won't change the fact that less and less people believe the explanation is that God created humans and bats and dolphins more or less as they are 10,000 years ago.

or that eyes can create and design themselves independently

Nobody is trying to make you believe that. It's nonsense!

So these are the generalities. Sure you can claim a, "victory" when you have 15 tanks, 200 rifles and 400 explosives and I only have a bow and arrow.

Naturally. And in the Muslim world, where the Creationists have tanks and rifles and explosives and the evolutionists have bows and arrows they can claim victory.

But really you are arguing your victory, your win, as something pertaining to society, obtusely forgetting that our society is not worldly.

I'm pretty sure it is worldly.

Numbers aren't our goal and the true victory is already won on the cross.

Good for you. Who cares if creationism isn't taught in schools, then? Nobody should! You have your victory, we have ours. Everyone's a winner. The ICR can close its doors for good as what use does it have to try and persuade people of creationism when numbers aren't your goal?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 181 by mike the wiz, posted 05-26-2018 7:46 AM mike the wiz has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 183 by NoNukes, posted 05-26-2018 1:36 PM Modulous has responded

  
Modulous
Member (Idle past 415 days)
Posts: 7789
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 184 of 198 (833796)
05-26-2018 2:04 PM
Reply to: Message 183 by NoNukes
05-26-2018 1:36 PM


These stats almost certainly do not reflect an educating process. At least not completely. I suspect that most of the difference is screening, and perhaps self-screening.

So you are saying that the kind of people that go and get higher education are less inclined to have YEC beliefs in the first place.


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