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Maths & Probabilities

Author Topic:   Maths & Probabilities
NosyNed
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 Message 4 of 36 (849250) 03-01-2019 11:31 PM Reply to: Message 1 by Phat03-01-2019 4:49 PM

What is a 2nd chance entry?

Assuming there is a drawing of slips of paper with names on them. Assume the drawing is open for entries for a month and then closed.

From your "already determined" phrase I assume there are a number printed and made available. Let's say 100,000.

But not all will be used. Let's say 50,000 are filled out and turned in.

Assume the slips are drawn at totally randomly after being well mixed.

The odds of any one being drawn are now 1/50,000. It doesn't matter if it was put in first, in the middle or last so spacing makes no difference.

If you enter 100 out of the 50,000 your odds are now 100/50,000 instead of 1/50,000.

However, let's say each entry costs you \$1. And the prize is \$20,000.
That means that before the draw each ticket is worth 20,000/50,000 or 40 cents. That means on average you will lose 60 cents each time you buy a ticket.
If you buy 100 tickets you are most likely to lose 60 dollars instead of 60 cents.

That is all before the draw. At the moment of the draw 1 ticket becomes worth \$20,000 and all others are zero. The average is still 40 cents each.

Before the draw you are buying 4 dimes for one dollar. If you think that is a good idea or can afford to make that deal once or 100 times then go for it. But be very clear: You are buying 4 dimes for one dollar!

 This message is a reply to: Message 1 by Phat, posted 03-01-2019 4:49 PM Phat has responded

 Replies to this message: Message 12 by Phat, posted 03-02-2019 3:17 PM NosyNed has responded

NosyNed
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 (1)
 Message 9 of 36 (849258) 03-02-2019 10:42 AM Reply to: Message 8 by JonF03-02-2019 9:14 AM

Still Gambling
 It's not gambling per se that's a losing proposition, it's the payout system.

It could easily still be a gambling with a more than 100 % expected value to a "ticket".

Referring back to my example: let's say someone donates \$40,000 additional to the pot - perhaps to encourage more tickets to be turned in. To keep the math simple let's say that didn't work and 50,000 tickets are still entered.

The payout is now \$60,000 so the expected value of a ticket is now \$1.20 which you buy for a dollar. By the raw statistics the ticket is now worth more than you pay and buying more makes sense. But most can't buy all \$50,000 entries.

So if you buy 100 tickets for \$100. Your statistical payout is \$120. But only one ticket will win so the mostly occurrence is that you lose the entire \$120 dollars. In fact, it's still almost guaranteed.

 This message is a reply to: Message 8 by JonF, posted 03-02-2019 9:14 AM JonF has not yet responded

NosyNed
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 Message 13 of 36 (849275) 03-02-2019 9:03 PM Reply to: Message 12 by Phat03-02-2019 3:17 PM

Expected Value per hour
So these don't cost any cash outlay.

How much is the prize on average and how many tickets are turned in on average?

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NosyNed
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 Message 16 of 36 (849281) 03-03-2019 11:51 AM Reply to: Message 14 by Phat03-03-2019 3:05 AM

Re: Expected Value per hour
 tHE PRIZE AVERAGES \$500,000.00 AND THE USUAL AMOUNT OF TICKETS TURNED IN IS AROUND 230,000

So the value of each ticket you find is about \$2.

How much time and yuckyness does it cost you to find a ticket, fill it out and turn it in?

I guess if you searched bins near a lottery location you might find 5 or 10 quickly so that might be just about worth it. What do you think?

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NosyNed
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 Message 33 of 36 (849334) 03-06-2019 2:36 PM Reply to: Message 32 by Phat03-06-2019 2:24 PM

Not so Unlikely
I take exception with calling < 5% and > 1 % "extremely" unlikely.

This is a problem with news casters when they announce the results of polls. blah, blah blah, + or 1 3 % 19 times out of twenty they say.

2 days later a poll shows a change of +15 % points for the underdog and there are big headlines and astonishment.

But in a series of polls you can expect an outlier 1 in 20 times.

If something is done every day then more than once a month you'll get something "extremely unlikely".

I'd call anything from 33 to 1 % as unlikely and not play silly bugger by pretending to be more precise than that with your names.

As for god and leprechauns there is nothing to calculate the statistics on so there is no where to put them on a chart that involves numbers.

 This message is a reply to: Message 32 by Phat, posted 03-06-2019 2:24 PM Phat has not yet responded

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