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Author Topic:   Maths & Probabilities
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8838
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 16 of 36 (849281)
03-03-2019 11:51 AM
Reply to: Message 14 by Phat
03-03-2019 3:05 AM


Re: Expected Value per hour
tHE PRIZE AVERAGES $500,000.00 AND THE USUAL AMOUNT OF TICKETS TURNED IN IS AROUND 230,000

So the value of each ticket you find is about $2.

How much time and yuckyness does it cost you to find a ticket, fill it out and turn it in?

I guess if you searched bins near a lottery location you might find 5 or 10 quickly so that might be just about worth it. What do you think?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by Phat, posted 03-03-2019 3:05 AM Phat has responded

Replies to this message:
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Phat
Member
Posts: 12164
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 17 of 36 (849283)
03-03-2019 2:56 PM
Reply to: Message 16 by NosyNed
03-03-2019 11:51 AM


Re: Expected Value per hour
Realistically its likely not worth it, if every factor were calculated in.

I never go out of my way to find tickets, though. At the store, often people will leave stacks of losing tickets near the machine, and the first one who scrounges them up gets to enter them.

I'm aware of the statistical odds. In my mind, however, I always try and link God (as I understand and believe in Him) up with it all and magically eliminate the need for statistical improbability. Money is simply one vehicle which I could imagine God using to bless someone. I am at my core a selfish and stubborn individual. My thinking about entitlement is likely flawed, but I cling to it as part of my hope. As you know, I fought and fight gambling addiction my entire adult life, and realize the critical errors in thinking from an intuitive level. Likely I started this topic in the hopes that someone would validate my hope in mathematical reality. Who am I kidding, though? You all even say that God Himself does not likely exist. I wont let go of that belief, however. I dont care if it had actual odds of a trillion to one!

Does anyone have any more insights into the science of probability?


Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith

You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo

Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile


This message is a reply to:
 Message 16 by NosyNed, posted 03-03-2019 11:51 AM NosyNed has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 18 by Tangle, posted 03-03-2019 5:17 PM Phat has not yet responded
 Message 19 by PaulK, posted 03-04-2019 2:10 AM Phat has responded
 Message 20 by Theodoric, posted 03-04-2019 8:47 AM Phat has responded

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 6675
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 18 of 36 (849284)
03-03-2019 5:17 PM
Reply to: Message 17 by Phat
03-03-2019 2:56 PM


Re: Expected Value per hour
Phat writes:

Does anyone have any more insights into the science of probability?

It's not hard Phat, the odds are the number of tickets you have divided by the number tickets entered in the lottery. ie it's essentially zero. But worse, it means you're thinking about it.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 17 by Phat, posted 03-03-2019 2:56 PM Phat has not yet responded

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 14749
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 1.7


Message 19 of 36 (849286)
03-04-2019 2:10 AM
Reply to: Message 17 by Phat
03-03-2019 2:56 PM


Re: Expected Value per hour
quote:

In my mind, however, I always try and link God (as I understand and believe in Him) up with it all and magically eliminate the need for statistical improbability. Money is simply one vehicle which I could imagine God using to bless someone

I am not aware of any studies showing a bias in any lottery wins that tend to support the idea of Divine intervention playing a role.

On the theological side, my reading on the NT suggests a rather negative view of wealth and that God’s provision should be expected to be more on the lines of a hand-to-mouth existence.

I know that isn’t what you want to hear, but that’s the way I see it.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 17 by Phat, posted 03-03-2019 2:56 PM Phat has responded

Replies to this message:
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Theodoric
Member
Posts: 5954
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 20 of 36 (849287)
03-04-2019 8:47 AM
Reply to: Message 17 by Phat
03-03-2019 2:56 PM


Re: Expected Value per hour
The prosperity gospel is a scam to separate rubes from their money.

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 17 by Phat, posted 03-03-2019 2:56 PM Phat has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 29 by Phat, posted 03-05-2019 1:14 PM Theodoric has responded

    
ringo
Member
Posts: 16231
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 1.9


Message 21 of 36 (849289)
03-04-2019 10:50 AM


A girl I used to work with had a deal with her boyfriend: On payday, they would go to the casino - but they would only take $20 each and when the $20 was gone, they'd go home. If you must gamble, that seems like a sensible approach.

However, one time they had barely walked in the door when he won $400. He put it into his pocket and they continued until both had used up their original $20. He said it was time to go home but she wanted him to continue with the $400 that he had won.

Of course, that's how they get you: If you lose, you want to win it back; if you win, you want to win more so you keep playing until you lose your winnings.


And our geese will blot out the sun.

Replies to this message:
 Message 22 by Phat, posted 03-04-2019 11:16 AM ringo has responded
 Message 32 by Phat, posted 03-06-2019 2:24 PM ringo has responded

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 12164
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 22 of 36 (849291)
03-04-2019 11:16 AM
Reply to: Message 21 by ringo
03-04-2019 10:50 AM


Freedom From Favored Thinking?
I totally agree. I am convinced that my gambling is more than simply a brain disorder---it is a plot of Satan, author of chaos. (See the other topic I resurrected)

My problem, among others, is that I may have a faulty concept of God as granter of favor. Blessings are basically favors bestowed. jar used to always pin me with the question of why I expected God to favor me. Once I made a clever reply:

quote:
jar writes:

What were the odds that the puddle would be located exactly where it had to be to capture the pine cones and those bicycle tire tracks and that two different people would walk along the same path or that not one but two cars would wander through that same spot.

Thats my point. There are no odds.
To wit:
Phat writes:

Intelligent design makes much better sense than random design. The whole idea of we humans being the "winner of a cosmic lottery" is so much nonsense.


jar writes:

Now that is just a really silly statement that makes God look pretty stupid. You seem to like making God look either stupid or evil or more often, both.
How are humans any greater winners of some cosmic lottery than cockroaches or pond scum?

Again, my point is that there was no cosmic lottery.

Are you asserting that humans are no more special than cockroaches or pond scum? Did God so love the pond that He sent His only begotten scum?
Did God send a cockroach born of a virgin to fight the evil Black Flag Empire?


...lets resume our discussion at the older topic. We had a good one going in late 2016, when I was starting my year of sobriety from gambling. My brain was freed from the brain disorder that led me to gamble, and my thoughts were clearer back then.

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith

You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo

Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile


This message is a reply to:
 Message 21 by ringo, posted 03-04-2019 10:50 AM ringo has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 23 by ringo, posted 03-04-2019 11:47 AM Phat has acknowledged this reply
 Message 25 by Tanypteryx, posted 03-04-2019 12:39 PM Phat has responded

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 16231
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 1.9


(1)
Message 23 of 36 (849296)
03-04-2019 11:47 AM
Reply to: Message 22 by Phat
03-04-2019 11:16 AM


Re: Freedom From Favored Thinking?
Phat writes:

Did God so love the pond that He sent His only begotten scum?


That may be the best thing you ever posted.

And our geese will blot out the sun.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 22 by Phat, posted 03-04-2019 11:16 AM Phat has acknowledged this reply

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 12164
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 24 of 36 (849299)
03-04-2019 11:56 AM
Reply to: Message 19 by PaulK
03-04-2019 2:10 AM


Re: Expected Value per hour
PaulK writes:

On the theological side, my reading on the NT suggests a rather negative view of wealth and that God’s provision should be expected to be more on the lines of a hand-to-mouth existence.

I know that isn’t what you want to hear, but that’s the way I see it.

I am afraid you are right! I used to want to be a Pastor. Now I cringe at the thought. Life is stressful enough already. I'm just mad that God does not seem to statistically favor me.

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith

You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo

Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile


This message is a reply to:
 Message 19 by PaulK, posted 03-04-2019 2:10 AM PaulK has not yet responded

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 1994
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.7


(1)
Message 25 of 36 (849308)
03-04-2019 12:39 PM
Reply to: Message 22 by Phat
03-04-2019 11:16 AM


Re: Freedom From Favored Thinking?
Are you asserting that humans are no more special than cockroaches or pond scum? Did God so love the pond that He sent His only begotten scum?

It is interesting that you talk about "pond scum" as if it is some horrible, putrid, useless (to humans), waste product like a turd in a punchbowl.

I have spent a significant portion of my life studying the life of ponds. What you call scum is probably floating mats of algae that is literally teaming with amazing life.

I got a microscope for my birthday when I was 8 years old and have had jars of pond water sitting on my window sills ever since. Endlessly fascinating dramas of life played out if you bothered to look.

What I would like to know is what the fuck makes you more special?


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 22 by Phat, posted 03-04-2019 11:16 AM Phat has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 26 by AnswersInGenitals, posted 03-04-2019 2:29 PM Tanypteryx has responded
 Message 28 by Phat, posted 03-05-2019 9:51 AM Tanypteryx has acknowledged this reply

    
AnswersInGenitals
Member
Posts: 509
Joined: 07-20-2006
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 26 of 36 (849311)
03-04-2019 2:29 PM
Reply to: Message 25 by Tanypteryx
03-04-2019 12:39 PM


it's a two way street.
Some denizens of that pond scum were probably staring back up the microscope at your eyeball and thinking “what vile, disgusting, putrid, and totally useless crap the is”. Ultimately, they were right.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 25 by Tanypteryx, posted 03-04-2019 12:39 PM Tanypteryx has responded

Replies to this message:
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Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 1994
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.7


(2)
Message 27 of 36 (849312)
03-04-2019 2:41 PM
Reply to: Message 26 by AnswersInGenitals
03-04-2019 2:29 PM


Re: it's a two way street.
Some denizens of that pond scum were probably staring back up the microscope at your eyeball and thinking “what vile, disgusting, putrid, and totally useless crap the is”. Ultimately, they were right.

Yep, I found them much more fascinating than they found me. I was helped on my path toward totally useless crap with a treasured book that I also got for my birthday, A Field Guide to Pond Life.

I am still amazed that what I found in those jars of pond water and that book set me on a life long path of discovery.


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 26 by AnswersInGenitals, posted 03-04-2019 2:29 PM AnswersInGenitals has not yet responded

    
Phat
Member
Posts: 12164
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 28 of 36 (849315)
03-05-2019 9:51 AM
Reply to: Message 25 by Tanypteryx
03-04-2019 12:39 PM


Re: Freedom From Favored Thinking?
I could almost imagine God asking me the same thing. Perhaps He used your thoughts....

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith

You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo

Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile


This message is a reply to:
 Message 25 by Tanypteryx, posted 03-04-2019 12:39 PM Tanypteryx has acknowledged this reply

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 12164
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 29 of 36 (849316)
03-05-2019 1:14 PM
Reply to: Message 20 by Theodoric
03-04-2019 8:47 AM


Re: Expected Value per hour
Theodoric writes:

The prosperity gospel is a scam to separate rubes from their money.

It almost sounds like you are channeling jar. I wonder how he is doing anyway? He replied to my email and said that EvC got boring...I know that I for one have regurgitated my same topics for over ten years.

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith

You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo

Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile


This message is a reply to:
 Message 20 by Theodoric, posted 03-04-2019 8:47 AM Theodoric has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 30 by Theodoric, posted 03-05-2019 3:20 PM Phat has acknowledged this reply

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 5954
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 30 of 36 (849317)
03-05-2019 3:20 PM
Reply to: Message 29 by Phat
03-05-2019 1:14 PM


Re: Expected Value per hour
said that EvC got boring

That may be true, but I wonder how much of his decision was because he did not get the deference he felt his opinions and arguments deserved.

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 29 by Phat, posted 03-05-2019 1:14 PM Phat has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
 Message 31 by AZPaul3, posted 03-05-2019 5:48 PM Theodoric has not yet responded

    
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