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Author Topic:   The 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Campaign
Chiroptera
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Posts: 6914
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


(3)
Message 3 of 505 (851794)
05-02-2019 2:29 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by LamarkNewAge
05-02-2019 12:32 AM


Biden's running helps Sanders
I hope Sanders crashes early, so give Biden his big lead.

Then find a good progressive opponent, and crush him (crush Biden).

Unfortunately, I fear that Biden jumping into the race will scare the progressive left into coalescing around Sanders, and I fear the nomination will end up between Biden and Sanders.

Me, I still prefer Warren.


Hell hath no fury like a white man scorned. If you take nothing else from the Senate's confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh, take that much. -- Kai Wright

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Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6914
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


(1)
Message 11 of 505 (851933)
05-04-2019 11:12 AM
Reply to: Message 7 by Taq
05-03-2019 3:38 PM


Paul Krugman's take.

Neither man seems ready for harsh political reality.

Hell hath no fury like a white man scorned. If you take nothing else from the Senate's confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh, take that much. -- Kai Wright

This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by Taq, posted 05-03-2019 3:38 PM Taq has not yet responded

  
Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6914
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


(2)
Message 17 of 505 (853651)
05-30-2019 9:30 AM
Reply to: Message 15 by anglagard
05-30-2019 12:33 AM


Re: Elizabeth Warren?
I just donated a small amount of money to her campaign. First time I've ever donated money to a candidate's campaign.

If this was a witch hunt, it found a lot of witches. -- David Cole, writing about the Mueller investigation.

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Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6914
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 22 of 505 (853666)
05-30-2019 1:36 PM
Reply to: Message 20 by Taq
05-30-2019 12:59 PM


In regards to both Biden and Sanders, I'm mostly worried about women and minorities having to put up with yet another old white man telling them what's good for them.

Neither candidate strikes me as someone who'd listen as someone tries to tell them what they don't want to hear.


If this was a witch hunt, it found a lot of witches. -- David Cole, writing about the Mueller investigation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 20 by Taq, posted 05-30-2019 12:59 PM Taq has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 24 by Taq, posted 05-30-2019 3:36 PM Chiroptera has acknowledged this reply

  
Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6914
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


(1)
Message 31 of 505 (853730)
05-31-2019 10:33 AM


From this morning's New York Times:

The 2020 Race Is Testing Progressives’ Power. They’re Pushing Back.

The article describes the excitement of the progressive wing of the Democratic party as they have won important elections and have swung the conversation to the left and their frustration that Biden's campaign threatens to yank it back to the "Center".

Some thoughts I have about the Democratic nomination:


  • Biden's support is "only" 30%-40%. This is a plurality right now, but remember the rest of the support is divided among many other candidates on the left. As non-viable candidates drop out, their support will undoubtably go to other left candidates. It's not clear yet whether Biden is alread near his ceiling.

  • This is especially true when you consider that at this point very few people are paying more than a superficial attention to the election right now. You'll see numbers change as the election gets closer.

  • If nothing else, a good showing by whoever Biden's main opponent is will force Biden to take some of the positions on the left. Some of us were able to give Clinton more than just grudging support because Sanders succeeded in pulling her off of the "center" on some issues.

  • As AZPaul3 points out, there is a danger that whoever loses the nomination, their supporters will sit out the election (or vothe third party, which is essentially the same thing). The smart candidate will realize that the Democratic Party is a coalition of different viewpoints and beliefs and, regardless where their main support comes from, will offer some compromises to form as broad a consensus as possible. (I see this as potentially Sanders' greatest weakness.)

  • As DC8S pointed out in another thread, many of the policies promoted by the "radicals" have the support of majorities of Americans - which is why I keep writing "center" in quotes. I cannot for the life of me figure out how this can't be turned into a winning campaign.

  • Trying to decide who is more "electable" is a mug's game. Right now Republican operatives are digging dirt and gaffes on all the likely nominees, and once the nominee is chosen the conservative smear machine go into full force and the nominee will absolutely become a hell ofa lot less electable. Support the candidate you like, and if you answer polls do it truthfully. I believe the primaries will select the most "electable" candidate.


If this was a witch hunt, it found a lot of witches. -- David Cole, writing about the Mueller investigation.

  
Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6914
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


(8)
Message 37 of 505 (853769)
05-31-2019 2:18 PM
Reply to: Message 34 by Tanypteryx
05-31-2019 1:45 PM


I'm have trouble thinking of anyone who would not be better than Trump.

That's what I said about Ronald Reagan.

Then I said it again about George W. Bush.

THERE IS NO BOTTOM, PEOPLE!


If this was a witch hunt, it found a lot of witches. -- David Cole, writing about the Mueller investigation.

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Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6914
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


(1)
Message 54 of 505 (854158)
06-05-2019 11:40 AM


Biden pledges to fight climate change
From The New York Times:

Climate Change Takes Center Stage as Biden and Warren Release Plans

In a move that surprised me, centrist candidate Biden unveiled an ambitious plan to try to deal with the upcoming climate crisis.

Now, as Mr. Biden runs for president, he has laid out an ambitious climate plan of his own that goes well beyond what Mr. Obama achieved, proposing $1.7 trillion in spending and a tax or fee on planet-warming pollution with the aim of eliminating the nation’s net carbon emissions by 2050.

Although I suspect the NYT may be reflexively joining itself to the centrist candidate, I am hopeful there is something to his plans.

On Tuesday, however, environmental activists largely lauded Mr. Biden’s plan and credited the influence of the Green New Deal.

“He put out a comprehensive climate plan that cites the Green New Deal and names climate change as the greatest challenge facing America and the world,” said Varshini Prakash, executive director of the Sunrise Movement, an environmental activist group that has championed Ms. Ocasio-Cortez’s proposal. “The pressure worked.”

Of course, I would support the Democratic nominee no matter who it is, but I feel that the climate crisis is the single most important issue of this election; although Biden is way down my preference list, if Biden is serious about this then I'll be able to support his candidacy with some enthusiasm if he is the nominee.


If this was a witch hunt, it found a lot of witches. -- David Cole, writing about the Mueller investigation.

Replies to this message:
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Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6914
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


(4)
Message 86 of 505 (855086)
06-16-2019 11:50 AM


Krugman: Warren is serious, not Serious
Friday's column by Paul Krugman:

Liberal Wonks, or at Least Elizabeth Warren, Have a Plan for That

An interesting column by Krugman. He compares Warren's campaign favorably with the other candidates for the Democratic nomination. While the other candidates' campaigns consist largely of platitutudes and very broad, general "visions", Warren is offering more specific, detailed plans about what she wants to do.

Furthermore, actual experts in the relevant fields point out that most of her ideas are workable and arguably necessary.

Even better, her idea resonate and are supported by large proportions of the electorate.

The reason I find Krugman's column interesting is that I had him pegged as an Establishment Liberal. In 2016 (when I started reading his columns), he was rather critical of Sanders and clearly supported Clinton. While half his criticisms were cogent (and interesting to read), the other half, to me, seemed to miss the point of Sanders' campaign.

But over the years, I've noticed him supporting more progressive policies and candidates. So either I misread him years ago, or Trump and the nihilist party has moved him to the left.

Or maybe he just appreciates a politician who actually knows what she's talking about.


It says something about the qualities of our current president that the best argument anyone has made in his defense is that he didn’t know what he was talking about. -- Paul Krugman

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Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6914
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 90 of 505 (856092)
06-26-2019 11:37 AM


Warren's plan to expand voter access
From The New York Times:

Elizabeth Warren’s Latest Plan: Expanding Voting Access

Elizabeth Warren has presented her ideas to correct some of the flaws in US elections.

As part of her proposal, intended to expand voting access and strengthen election security, Ms. Warren would create a new federal agency, the Secure Democracy Administration. She would replace every voting machine across the country with modern equipment and would require the use of a uniform federal ballot. She would also impose uniform standards on election rules, requiring all states to have automatic voter registration and same-day registration, early voting and voting by mail.

By the way, although it is the states' responsibility to run elections, the Constitution does allow the Federal government to regulate the process.

The plan comes at a time when protecting voting rights is a priority for Democrats, after Republicans in recent years have enacted new voting restrictions in many states. Democratic lawmakers in states like New York have pushed to expand access to the ballot box, and in Congress, the Democratic-controlled House passed an ambitious voting rights and anticorruption bill in March, though it has no hope of passage in the Republican-controlled Senate.

It says something about the qualities of our current president that the best argument anyone has made in his defense is that he didn’t know what he was talking about. -- Paul Krugman

  
Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6914
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


(4)
Message 92 of 505 (856277)
06-29-2019 9:37 AM


Warren vs Harris?
I would be far happier if the Democratic nomination turned out to be between Warren and Harris than between Sanders and Biden.

Am I the only one?


It says something about the qualities of our current president that the best argument anyone has made in his defense is that he didn’t know what he was talking about. -- Paul Krugman

Replies to this message:
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Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6914
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


(2)
Message 99 of 505 (857156)
07-06-2019 10:27 AM


Krugman on Establishment Liberal angst
Tuesday's column by Paul Krugman:

The Moochers of Middle America

Krugman mentions how Biden was pwned by Harris in the debates and how this increases the chance that a progressive candidate will get the Democratic nomination. And now the Establishment Liberals are wringing their hands, spouting the usual "conventional wisdom" about how only a "moderate" candidate can possibly beat Trump.

So it’s worth parsing those claims. In what sense are the Dems moving too far left? What I’m seeing are three fairly distinct claims. First, that the party is endangering its electoral prospects. Second, that the party is being fiscally or economically irresponsible. Third, that Democrats are unfairly proposing to redistribute income from those who create wealth to those who don’t.

So you should know that the first claim is probably wrong, the second is definitely wrong, and the third ignores the extent to which we already do a lot of redistribution in this country — with Republican voters some of the biggest beneficiaries.

As far as the first point is concerned, Krugman says what I've been saying: seeing how the "radical" Democrats' proposals are so popular, it should be easy to turn them into a winning campaign.

The second point, Krugman points out that unlike Trump's tax cuts, Democrats' spending proposals would do much to help working people, and so should provide a boost to the economy.

Finally, as far as the third point, Krugman talks about the so-called "moochers", many of whom live in conservative areas. One example is Kentucky:

Take the case of Kentucky. In 2017, the state received $40 billion more from the federal government than it paid in taxes. That’s about one-fifth of the state’s G.D.P.; if Kentucky were a country, we’d say that it was receiving foreign aid on an almost inconceivable scale.

So if you really believe that Americans with higher incomes shouldn’t pay for benefits provided to those with lower incomes, you should be calling on “donor” states like New Jersey and New York to cut off places like Kentucky and let their economies collapse. And if that’s what you mean, you should let Mitch McConnell’s constituents know about it.

Edited by Chiroptera, : Boy, my proof reading skills are awful!


It says something about the qualities of our current president that the best argument anyone has made in his defense is that he didn’t know what he was talking about. -- Paul Krugman

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Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6914
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


(1)
Message 103 of 505 (857480)
07-08-2019 5:31 PM
Reply to: Message 102 by anglagard
07-08-2019 5:26 PM


Re: Another Economic Factor for Voting Patterns
Last chance suckers, AOC turns 35 on Oct, 13, 2024.

Youngest president in US history?


It says something about the qualities of our current president that the best argument anyone has made in his defense is that he didn’t know what he was talking about. -- Paul Krugman

This message is a reply to:
 Message 102 by anglagard, posted 07-08-2019 5:26 PM anglagard has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 104 by anglagard, posted 07-08-2019 6:08 PM Chiroptera has responded

  
Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6914
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 105 of 505 (857510)
07-08-2019 8:29 PM
Reply to: Message 104 by anglagard
07-08-2019 6:08 PM


Re: Another Economic Factor for Voting Patterns
Youngest by far, Teddy beat JFK by a few months, at 41.

Fun fact: Teddy was the youngest person (so far) to become President of the US, but JFK was the youngest person to win a Presidential election.


It says something about the qualities of our current president that the best argument anyone has made in his defense is that he didn’t know what he was talking about. -- Paul Krugman

This message is a reply to:
 Message 104 by anglagard, posted 07-08-2019 6:08 PM anglagard has not yet responded

  
Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6914
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


(1)
Message 119 of 505 (859128)
07-28-2019 5:35 PM


Some poll results
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results & Analysis

I've been claiming that much of the positions of the so-called "radical left" are supported by majorities of Americans. This is a recent poll on this. Bullet points are directly quoted from the website.


  • Americans support so-called common sense gun policies, especially requiring background checks for gun purchases at gun shows or other private sales. In fact, requiring background checks is overwhelmingly thought to be a good idea (89%) and receives widespread bipartisan support.

  • Americans (70%) favor Medicare for all who want it, that is, a choice between a national health insurance program or their own private insurance.

  • A slim majority of Americans (51%) assert that repealing Obamacare is a bad idea.

  • Nearly two in three Americans (64%) think it is a good idea to provide a pathway to citizenship for immigrants who are in the United States illegally.

  • More than six in ten Americans (63%) consider a Green New Deal to address climate change by investing government money in green jobs and infrastructure to be a good idea.

  • Bolstered by Democrats (88%) and independents (61%), more than six in ten Americans (62%) perceive implementing a wealth tax which imposes a higher tax rate on income exceeding one million dollars to be a positive idea.

  • A majority of Americans (56%), including 84% of Democrats and a majority of independents (52%), also consider a national minimum wage of $15 an hour to be a good idea.

  • A majority of Americans (53%), including 76% of Democrats and 52% of independents, say providing free college tuition at public colleges and universities is a good idea.

A few things, though, are unpopular. "Medicare-for-all" as the only option for health care is unpopular, as is providing free health care for illegal immigrants. There isn't much support for decriminalizing crossing the border illegally.

And, surprisingly since a majority would not vote for a second term for Trump, abolishing the Electoral College doesn't have majority support.

-

I found a link to this poll from fivethirtyeight.com.


It says something about the qualities of our current president that the best argument anyone has made in his defense is that he didn't know what he was talking about. -- Paul Krugman

Replies to this message:
 Message 121 by LamarkNewAge, posted 07-28-2019 11:51 PM Chiroptera has acknowledged this reply
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Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6914
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 183 of 505 (860307)
08-06-2019 4:54 PM
Reply to: Message 182 by AZPaul3
08-06-2019 4:46 PM


Re: The Left's Imaginary Racism
I was wondering how Trump could have possibly have been elected....

It says something about the qualities of our current president that the best argument anyone has made in his defense is that he didn't know what he was talking about. -- Paul Krugman

This message is a reply to:
 Message 182 by AZPaul3, posted 08-06-2019 4:46 PM AZPaul3 has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 185 by AZPaul3, posted 08-06-2019 5:34 PM Chiroptera has not yet responded

  
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