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Author Topic:   The 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Campaign
ringo
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Posts: 17919
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.5


(1)
Message 331 of 412 (871499)
02-04-2020 11:20 AM
Reply to: Message 328 by Percy
02-04-2020 9:51 AM


Percy writes:

Pete Buttigieg, because he has the most potential to grow into the job.


We don't hire airline pilots that way.

"I'm Fallen and I can't get up!"

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Chiroptera
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Posts: 6858
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 5.5


(3)
Message 332 of 412 (871504)
02-04-2020 12:15 PM
Reply to: Message 330 by Theodoric
02-04-2020 11:10 AM


I disagree that Biden is the most electable.

Me, too, but mostly because I think it's foolish to think we can figure out who's most electable nine months before the election. What I worry about is left leaning Democrats second guessing themselves and worrying about who other people think is electable and so choosing an uninspiring candidate who ends up being the least electable.

I've said this before: if Democratic voters just cast their vote for the candidate they truly believe would be the best choice for President, the system will choose the one who's most electable.

'Course, that's assuming the centrists don't give in to their blind panic and goose the system in favor of the uninspiring centrist candidate.

Oklahoma allows independents to vote in the Democratic primaries. If Warren is still viable, I'll cast my vote for her (in fact, I donated a bit of money to her campaign last weekend), otherwise it looks like Sanders for me.


The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool. -- Richard Feynman

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LamarkNewAge
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Joined: 12-22-2015
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(3)
Message 333 of 412 (871511)
02-04-2020 1:18 PM


21st century Senate brought in by Democratic Presidential candidates
Democratic Senators

2000 Gore 50

2004 Kerry 45

2008 Obama 59

2012 Obama 53

2016 Hillary Clinton 48

Perhaps we should just do the opposite of what Kerry and Clinton tell us is sound candidate selection.


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RAZD
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From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 2.9


(2)
Message 334 of 412 (871520)
02-04-2020 4:18 PM
Reply to: Message 333 by LamarkNewAge
02-04-2020 1:18 PM


Re: 21st century Senate brought in by Democratic Presidential candidates
Perhaps we should just do the opposite of what Kerry and Clinton tell us is sound candidate selection.

This is where I think the Sanders campaign — “not me us“ — excels. He talks about a revolution by including candidates at all levels in his organization, something it seems the DNC forgets about, knowing that he (or any democrat) will not be able to get much done without the senate.

He appeals to independents and never voted before people, and he inspires and supports candidates for other offices — AOC as a case in point.

Enjoy


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel•American•Zen•Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
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LamarkNewAge
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Joined: 12-22-2015
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Message 335 of 412 (871523)
02-04-2020 5:01 PM
Reply to: Message 334 by RAZD
02-04-2020 4:18 PM


Re: 21st century Senate brought in by Democratic Presidential candidates
I still am amazed at how Hillary Clinton got the ONLY Republican she could beat as her general election opponent in 16 and still did so badly that she blew a good Senate map.

Talk about down ticket damage for Dems in 16.


This message is a reply to:
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Minnemooseus
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From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior)
Joined: 11-11-2001
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Message 336 of 412 (871537)
02-04-2020 10:02 PM
Reply to: Message 335 by LamarkNewAge
02-04-2020 5:01 PM


Trump should have been self-defeating
I still am amazed at how Hillary Clinton got the ONLY Republican she could beat as her general election opponent in 16 and still did so badly that she blew a good Senate map.

Any of the other Republican candidates should have been able to defeat Trump. But how do you campaign against someone so obviously unsuitable for the job?

Back when, I had (unfortunately) used the phrase that "Hillary was the lesser of to evils", to which Anglagard replied "The lesser of two evils is still evil".

On the +10=wonderful, -10=terrible scale, Trump has to be somewhere in the -10 neighborhood, while Hillary is, at minimum, somewhere around a zero.

The Trump election was a result of mass irrationality. I think that anyone who didn't vote for Hillary, didn't vote against Trump.

Part of my signature:
"Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable." - John Kenneth Galbraith

Moose


Professor, geology, Whatsamatta U
Evolution - Changes in the environment, caused by the interactions of the components of the environment.

"Do not meddle in the affairs of cats, for they are subtle and will piss on your computer." - Bruce Graham

"The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness." - John Kenneth Galbraith

"Yesterday on Fox News, commentator Glenn Beck said that he believes President Obama is a racist. To be fair, every time you watch Glenn Beck, it does get a little easier to hate white people." - Conan O'Brien

"Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable." - John Kenneth Galbraith

It says something about the qualities of our current president that the best argument anyone has made in his defense is that he didn't know what he was talking about. - Paul Krugman (as stolen from Chiroptera's signature)

"My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes" - Ronald Reagan (1984)

"I know a little about a lot of things, and a lot about a few things, but I'm highly ignorant about everything." - Moose


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RAZD
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From: the other end of the sidewalk
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Message 337 of 412 (871550)
02-05-2020 11:15 AM
Reply to: Message 335 by LamarkNewAge
02-04-2020 5:01 PM


Re: 21st century Senate brought in by Democratic Presidential candidates
I still am amazed at how Hillary Clinton got the ONLY Republican she could beat as her general election opponent in 16 and still did so badly that she blew a good Senate map.
Talk about down ticket damage for Dems in 16.

What you never see mentioned is that she sucked all the DNC and state committee funds out for her campaign, leaving nothing for the down-ticket candidates.

Enjoy


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel•American•Zen•Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

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Hyroglyphx
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Posts: 5949
From: Austin, TX
Joined: 05-03-2006
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 338 of 412 (871559)
02-05-2020 2:08 PM
Reply to: Message 332 by Chiroptera
02-04-2020 12:15 PM


What I worry about is left leaning Democrats second guessing themselves and worrying about who other people think is electable and so choosing an uninspiring candidate who ends up being the least electable.

This is why I think straw polls are so dangerous. It forces many voters into picking a candidate that they don't actually believe in but think can be the lesser of evils. Vote your conscience.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

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LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1620
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.8


Message 339 of 412 (871575)
02-05-2020 6:58 PM
Reply to: Message 337 by RAZD
02-05-2020 11:15 AM


Re: 21st century Senate brought in by Democratic Presidential candidates
The Democrat talking heads on all the networks only point out factoids that would put Sanders in a bad light and Hillary always gets a pass.

All the snide remarks from the MSNBC and CNN Democratic commentators will never be an allusion to Hillary Clinton sucking funds and hurting the down ticket. Allusions would not even be possible anyway because the facts never have been mentioned despite the fact that they would be massively relevant to the endlessly discussed media topic of electable issues with the general Democratic Party condition centering around candidates for President.

We have been told endlessly about how mean Sanders supposedly was to Clinton and it is a lie that keeps getting repeated as if it is or was true. It just smells like McCarthyism. Don Fowler Jr used to say that superdelegates were going to be used to stop candidates dangerous to the country. Then the DNC claimed the superdelegates would not have any relevance to stopping a candidate AFTER Sanders started to beat Hillary Clinton. Now that the Supers have been reduced in power we are hearing about the laments from DNC officials who are more frank about the Supers ability to make the winners and losers.

Hillary Clinton 2016 New Hampshire delegate Christina Fowler said that Sanders went to bed a big winner primary night and woke up behind in New Hampshire delegates due to Super Delegates. She said that the unfairness in delegates was NOT SIMPLY A PERCEPTION issue that influenced media coverage about who was poised to win and loose but ALSO WAS A NUMERICAL REALITY which I think means that the 2016 Democratic Party Primary was stolen from the voters by the party.

I say stolen not Fowler and the Delegate Fowler is no relation to the powerful Don Fowler RIP and the living Don Fowler Jr.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


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LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1620
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.8


Message 340 of 412 (871580)
02-05-2020 9:09 PM


92 percent in Buttigieg 26.5. Sanders 25.6
141 precincts left out of 1600

And I made a mistake last post. A few.

First the DNC was talking about Clinton essentially owning the SuperDelegate pledges to support her throughout the primary though they seemed to back down a bit once the voter selected Delegate math made a Sanders PLEDGED delegate win very unlikely. Then when Sanders needed to get 73 voter support in the California primary to win the pledged delegate race the unpledged Supers were not played up as much. But when the primary ended then the lies started which claimed that the SupetDelegates were never that important to the primary race after all.

I made the mistake of saying that their power was downplayed during the primary. They were played massively as we all remember. Like during the New Hampshire primary.

My next mistake was confusing California DNC member Christina Pelosi for a non existent New Hampshire delegate Christina Fowler. See a 2018 The Guardian article after the DNC rule switch.


  
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1620
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.8


Message 341 of 412 (871582)
02-05-2020 11:12 PM


Now 96 percent in it is 26.4 to 25.7 but Sanders has more people votes
Both are sure to get about the same number of delegates but the tiny Buttigieg lead is not in popular votes but local state delegates.

Sanders might just have the most popular votes when all is counted as he does so far.

Buttigeig could have a slight state delegate edge in the 26 to 26 race as he is up 0.7 percent there


  
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1620
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.8


Message 342 of 412 (871585)
02-06-2020 12:41 AM


Now it is 26.2 to 26.1 with 97 percent of precincts in
So Sanders is certainly going to win the first choice popular vote by at least 4 points and his second choice popular vote lead of about 1 to 2 points will probably roughly hold.

But the biggest news is that the metric the media is looking at BEING THE STATE DELEGATE PERCRNTAGE is now totally tied. Almost.

Biden will have to go after his moderate rival regardless because there are now 3 moderates that will be there in it with strength. Vitrified. Spell check crap. Vitrified. Spell check won't let me put a period after Buttigieg

Bloomberg

Biden.

3 now though Bloomberg is more conservative than liberal so he is a fake moderate to me. He attempted to rile up New Yorkers to call their state senators to amend the constitution of New York to end the right to shelter that the homeless enjoy in New York.

Bloomberg spent millions in 2010 to make the historic Democratic takeover of the state Senate shortlived. He openly brought about the Republican retaking of the New York State Senate just 2 years after Democrats finally got it narrowly in 2008. Democrats in 2018 just did something amazing though. They gained 8 seats and went up to a 40 to 23 majority which is actually 39 to 24 since one member is a DINO who supported GOP control when he was the tie breaker for control.

Bloomberg lost his racist stop and frisk ultimately as well.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


  
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1620
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.8


Message 343 of 412 (871627)
02-07-2020 9:05 AM


Buttigieg is surging. DNC is happy. Dont forget we live in Opposite World
When the DNC and mainstream media tell us that Democrats are making a good electability vote for the general election THEN don't forget about the Opposite World that seems to exist.

First the reality in the real world. Tump might be much safer with another moderate opponent as opposed to Sanders. Trump might just get 15 percent of the African American vote against Buttigieg. Trump might get to run against an opponent who offers so little for the poor and lower middle class that his good policy changes could be seen as a massively helpful decision in THE DNC SHINNING LIGHT.

That is to say that the darkness of the DNC causes Trumps doubling of the standard exemption for tax payers from 6000 to 12000 dollars to shine like a super nova.

There will be nothing from the Democratic Party candidate to offer if it is the same old DNC candidate to offer a counter.

Trump is looking better and better in the real world when the DNC gets obeyed by the Democratic Party primary voters

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


  
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1620
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.8


Message 344 of 412 (871635)
02-07-2020 11:42 AM


2 general election polls with massive samples come out
See the 538 site and check the Feb 3 polls Silver posted.

AtlasIntel has a 1600 registered voter poll from Jan 31 to Feb 2

Sanders beats Trump by 4 while Biden and Buttigieg only beat him by 1. Bloomberg lost.

Morning Consult has an amazing 7178 registered voter sample. Jan 27 to Feb 2

Buttigieg wins by 1

Sanders won by 4

Biden wins by 4

Bloomberg wins by 7

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


Replies to this message:
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NosyNed
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Posts: 8894
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003
Member Rating: 4.4


(2)
Message 345 of 412 (871636)
02-07-2020 11:55 AM
Reply to: Message 344 by LamarkNewAge
02-07-2020 11:42 AM


Re: 2 general election polls with massive samples come out
Those aren't "wins" are they? They are within the confidence limits aren't they?
That's ridiculous and scary but that's the way it is.

This message is a reply to:
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