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Author Topic:   The 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Campaign
RAZD
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Posts: 20548
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 3.0


Message 346 of 412 (871647)
02-07-2020 4:24 PM
Reply to: Message 344 by LamarkNewAge
02-07-2020 11:42 AM


Re: 2 general election polls with massive samples come out
Are those polls filtered through the electoral college?

IF not, they mean naught.

Enjoy


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 344 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-07-2020 11:42 AM LamarkNewAge has responded

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Percy
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Posts: 19426
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 347 of 412 (871662)
02-08-2020 10:46 AM
Reply to: Message 330 by Theodoric
02-04-2020 11:10 AM


Theodoric writes:

Buttigieg is in reality quite right wing.

I don't think so. Buttigieg positions:

  • Taking action on climate change
  • Health care for all who want it
  • Make public colleges free for 80% of Americans
  • Actively addressing economic, legal and health disparities in black communities
  • Address wage stagnation by increasing the minimum wage, encouraging unions to improve employee bargaining power, etc.
  • Encourage immigration
  • Stronger gun regulations

I don't know his position on tax reform - I wish he'd be more clear about it.

The black and minority vote will stay home if he is the candidate.

Why do you think that is? Is it fixable?

The only reason he is a Dem is that he is unacceptable to the GOP. If the GOP did not hate gays he would be a Republican.

That Buttigieg is gay is a significant problem.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 330 by Theodoric, posted 02-04-2020 11:10 AM Theodoric has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19426
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.7


(1)
Message 348 of 412 (871665)
02-08-2020 11:02 AM
Reply to: Message 331 by ringo
02-04-2020 11:20 AM


ringo writes:

Percy writes:

Pete Buttigieg, because he has the most potential to grow into the job.


We don't hire airline pilots that way.

They'd all have to grow into the job, even though the others all have substantially more government experience. I just think Buttigieg's potential for growth in office is substantially greater than the other candidates. There's an intellect there that I don't sense in the other candidates, except Warren. His ability to articulate the issues and the principles behind his positions on them is why I'd consider voting for him. His major drawbacks are lack of experience, youth, lack of black support, and being gay. That's a lot of drawbacks.

But all the candidates have drawbacks. Biden's age seems to be showing in his energy, his articulation, his coherency. I can't list specific drawbacks for Warren other than that she's a woman (that's not a drawback for me - it's other people I'm worried about), I'm just generally uncertain about her effectiveness as a campaigner. Sanders embraces the socialist label, which is deadly for him. Klobuchar just can't seem to gain any leverage. I've seen Steyer's commercials and he talks like a billionaire indulging himself. Bloomberg's a complete unknown to me.

I wish Stacy Abrams would get in the race, but that's not happening.

--Percy


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Replies to this message:
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LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1620
Joined: 12-22-2015
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Message 349 of 412 (871681)
02-08-2020 10:42 PM
Reply to: Message 345 by NosyNed
02-07-2020 11:55 AM


Re: 2 general election polls with massive samples come out
It sounds like you are making a statement about Trump being a President you feel negativity towards.

My point was that Sanders performs in a way that is totally contrary to what we would expect from all the electability verses unelectability chatter.

Consider this

The last non partisan poll on the general election was a state poll taken which matched Trump against the Democratic nominees. It was from January 31 to Feb 2 by East Carolina University and it was a poll measuring South Carolina voters attitudes. This is by far the most conservative state on the east coast. Trump won 54 to 41 in 2016. Georgia is the next best east coast state for Trump in 16 and it was a 5.7 race.

Bloomberg looses SC 53 to 33.

Klobuchar looses 52 to 33.

Buttigieg looses 53 to 34.

Sanders and Biden loose 52 to 40.

Steyer spent alot for the primary in SC and he is loosing 52 to 39

Sanders does better than the chatter wants us to think. A lot better.


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LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1620
Joined: 12-22-2015
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Message 350 of 412 (871682)
02-08-2020 10:50 PM
Reply to: Message 346 by RAZD
02-07-2020 4:24 PM


Re: 2 general election polls with massive samples come out
Sanders does relatively better than the rest of the Democratic candidates in the state races.

Even in partisan polls.

The most recent general election poll was from Feb 4 to 5 by a Republican firm and it was on New Hampshire.

McLaughlin and Associates has Sanders loosing to Trump 48 to45 and Biden loosing 49 to 45.

Partisan polls only are released when the poll shows the party candidates performing much better than the rest of the polls that show what is really going on. Trump looses New Hampshire in the real polls.

Sanders is clearly strong in swing state New Hampshire.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 346 by RAZD, posted 02-07-2020 4:24 PM RAZD has acknowledged this reply

  
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1620
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.8


Message 351 of 412 (871699)
02-09-2020 4:04 PM


Reality check on media hype of Amy Klobuchar
I KNEW the media would try to play her up ever since she announced she was running. I also knew that I should ignore it all as it would be a media driven fantasy with no voter driven support to the stories.

There are cherry picking poll watchers who are writing articles which ignore the mass of polls that have Klobuchar tanking. The media says Klobuchar is red hot.

Actually the last 2 CNN polls that have been released on back to back days this weekend have Klobuchar getting 5 and 6 percent. 2 points ahead of Yang and the poll today has her up 1 over Gabbard.

Granted there has not been a general election poll since before Iowa voted, but Klobuchar did not perform well against Trump relative to the other Democrats. I did not think so.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


  
Percy
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Posts: 19426
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 352 of 412 (871714)
02-10-2020 8:54 AM
Reply to: Message 348 by Percy
02-08-2020 11:02 AM


New Hampshire Primary is Tomorrow
I watched the Friday Democratic debate and the Sunday morning analysis programs and had these impressions:

  • Bernie Sanders: For going toe-to-toe verbally with Trump on a debate stage, it's Bernie. His ability to deflect criticism and then return to his message is very strong. He had a very strong debate performance. But he embraces the socialist label. He insists on calling it "democratic socialism," but if you look it up it's not much different from plain old socialism. I consider him unelectable. He'll win the primary easily because he's so well known here because he was once governor of the adjacent state of Vermont.

  • Amy Klobuchar: She's a strong second for going toe-to-toe with Trump. She also had a very strong debate performance. But she wasn't invited on any Sunday morning programs that I saw - I haven't watched Jake Tapper's or Chris Wallace's shows yet. I looked at her stands on the issues at her website and she has all the right positions on healthcare, gun control, immigration, taxes, trade, foreign relations, student debt, climate change and abortion rights.

  • Buttigieg's clarity of message seems to be diminishing under the pressure of being a contender. No pundits noted this, it seems to only be me, but he generally got low marks for his debate performance. His appearances on the Sunday morning programs (three by my count) didn't cause me to reconsider. He's lost a step in articulating his message is my opinion. I think Trump would eat him alive on a debate stage.

  • Elizabeth Warren: She didn't say much at the debate, but she was on the Sunday programs. I can't figure her out, or maybe it's just that I can't figure out how I feel about her. I like her, I like her intellect, I think she has knowledge and mastery of the issues, but gaffes seem to follow her around, like her supposed Indian ancestry and her Medicare-for-all plan. There's a "shrill" element to her delivery. She doesn't feel electable to me. She has no chance of winning the primary, even though she's from another adjacent state, Massachusetts.

  • Joe Biden: He was a non-entity in the debate. He did get the opportunity to speak quite often, but nothing he said felt effective. I think he would get eaten alive on the Trump stage.

  • Tom Steyer: He performs much better on the debate stage than he does on his commercials, but I don't think he's electable. Honestly, I'm not familiar with his stands on issues.

  • Andrew Yang: Thank you for coming.

I have decided to vote in the Democratic primary. I don't know how I will vote tomorrow, but right now (and this could change) it's between Klobuchar and Buttigieg.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
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RAZD
Member
Posts: 20548
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 3.0


(1)
Message 353 of 412 (871723)
02-10-2020 12:59 PM
Reply to: Message 352 by Percy
02-10-2020 8:54 AM


Re: New Hampshire Primary is Tomorrow -- My Take
Bernie Sanders: For going toe-to-toe verbally with Trump on a debate stage, it's Bernie. His ability to deflect criticism and then return to his message is very strong. He had a very strong debate performance. But he embraces the socialist label. He insists on calling it "democratic socialism," but if you look it up it's not much different from plain old socialism. ...

You won't let this go. They are very different. The Nordic countries are democratic socialist countries akin to what Bernie proposes. They do very well taking care of their people, they have high government satisfaction, high cultural happiness satisfaction with life. Their economies are capitalistic in general with social programs that provide for healthcare, university education, welfare, etc. "Socialism" has a broad definition and many versions, including democratic socialism and social democracy (quite different) as well as ones that lean towards communism.

The major difference for democratic socialism as proposed by Bernie is that the social programs are decided democratically and employed democratically. It is government of the people, by the people and for the people, as Abraham Lincoln said.

Look up FDR -- he was a democratic socialist with his programs and his proposed second bill of rights (that didn't get passed before he died). He won 4 elections, because his programs were for the people not corporations and rich people.

Bernie consistently beats Trumpski in head-to-head polls by the highest margins. For those looking for electability that is a very good metric.

He also has the popularity to have long coat-tails, and he supports down ticket candidates -- which is what you need to win the Senate (need only 4 seats)

Amy Klobuchar: She's a strong second for going toe-to-toe with Trump. ...

A good contender for Vice President. Comes from Midwest so would attract midwest voters.

Buttigieg's clarity of message seems to be diminishing ...

HE waffles and has changed positions, most notably on healthcare, which he now is against. To my mind that makes him ineluctable. To beat Trump with the purported hyped economy you need a strong issue and healthcare for all is one that polls at the top across party lines. That helped win 2018 house seats.

Elizabeth Warren: She didn't say much at the debate, but she was on the Sunday programs. I can't figure her out, or maybe it's just that I can't figure out how I feel about her. I like her, I like her intellect, I think she has knowledge and mastery of the issues, but gaffes seem to follow her around, ...

Her stand on healthcare is a problem, as she hasn't really embrace full universal healthcare, and has backed away from it. Most people I know had expected her to endorse Bernie in 2016, but she waited until the end to endorse Hillary. There are many voters that will not forgive her for that. (Hillary as too much baggage)

Again a possible VP candidate, but that loads the ticket with two New Englanders with no representation for other areas. Klobuchar coming from Minnesota makes a more rounded ticket, but still leaves the whole western side of America out.

I think the best place for Warren is on the Supreme Court, she taught law at University of Pennsylvania Law School as a full professor and at Harvard after that. We need someone strong to replace the notorious RBG, and I think Liz is up to it.

Joe Biden: He was a non-entity in the debate. ...

A DINO that needs to retire and take Hillary and Perez with him.

Tom Steyer: ...
Andrew Yang: Thank you for coming.

I don't see any fire that will bring out the voters.

Bloomberg is also a DINO and he is trying to buy the election rather than win it. Not being in the early primaries should hurt him, so he's hoping the big delegate states will give him enough.

I expect Bernie to win the primary, because of his ground campaign and dedicated supporters. Wonder what the DNC/Media will do to downplay that ... as they did to Iowa when he won there.

Enjoy


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel•American•Zen•Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 352 by Percy, posted 02-10-2020 8:54 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1620
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.8


Message 354 of 412 (871730)
02-10-2020 4:13 PM


Quinnipac Feb 5 to 9 general election poll has 6 Dems v Trump
We have a big post Iowa poll with 1159 registered voters polled

Buttigieg beats Trump 47 to 43

Warren 48 Trump 44

Klobuchar 49 Trump 43

Biden 50 Trump 43

Sanders 51 Trump 43

Bloomberg 51 Trump 42

Here is the best evidence yet that the more voters know of Sanders the better he does. So far for the last 5 years


  
anglagard
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Posts: 2215
From: Socorro, New Mexico USA
Joined: 03-18-2006
Member Rating: 8.1


(4)
Message 355 of 412 (871739)
02-11-2020 1:29 AM


One Way to Look at it
The current healthcare system in the United States requires at least 30,000 deaths per year due to lack of insurance coverage.

The Aztec Empire required 30,000 deaths to appease Huitzilopochtli so the sun would rise again and Tlaloc to make sure the rain continued.

The modern equivalent is appeasing the health insurance industry to keep their unnecessary welfare queen jobs and the pharmaceutical industry to keep their Martin Shkreli-level profits.

At least the Aztecs mainly sacrificed captives caught in battle rather than their own citizens.

So who supports medicare for all rather than the new improved version of the Aztec Religion?

Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren (maybe)

When it comes to "Democratic centrists" just follow the money........and the body count.


Read not to contradict and confute, not to believe and take for granted, not to find talk and discourse, but to weigh and consider. - Francis Bacon

  
anglagard
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Posts: 2215
From: Socorro, New Mexico USA
Joined: 03-18-2006
Member Rating: 8.1


(3)
Message 356 of 412 (871741)
02-11-2020 5:26 AM
Reply to: Message 352 by Percy
02-10-2020 8:54 AM


Re: New Hampshire Primary is Tomorrow
Percy writes:

I have decided to vote in the Democratic primary. I don't know how I will vote tomorrow, but right now (and this could change) it's between Klobuchar and Buttigieg.

Mayor Pete is the biggest phony total dirtbag politician since, well Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

i believe your media diet may need more fiber.

Did you know TYT (the Young Turks) uncovered the story behind Buttegeig's demotion of the black Chief of Police due to his big buck donors insisting on white leadership of the police force? How about that police shooting of a black man under his watch and without the body cam footage afterwards? Wonder how that worked out?

Oh yeah, half the black cops in the great metropolis of South Bend, Indiana left over his "leadership."

This is just one example of why Buttegeig has no path to the black vote and therefore no path to the nomination.

Well, one would not know this if one's media diet was solely limited to CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, Wall Street Journal, New York Times and Washington Post or whatever propaganda outlet is funded by those whose souls are traded as marketplace commodities, upper middle class twits screwing over the less financially fortunate on behalf of their billionaire masters, and therefore in general all identifiable minorities of any flavor.

There is an alternative media - the aforementioned TYT, Ring of Fire, Rational National, Humanist Report, etc. and that's just utube, In print you also have Salon, Slate, Vox, Mother Jones, Daily Kos, and 'scary' Jacobin, and even Politico (which is pretty centrist), or even 528 or RCP for polling averages.

I am not necessarily asking you to buy into my attitude as it is unique, just that you "weigh and consider."

As to who is better - Klobuchar or Buttegieg, well if you insist, Klobuchar has a lot less baggage. Still gonna' screw over the workers in favor of that trust fund baby donation money, but at least she is honest about it.


Read not to contradict and confute, not to believe and take for granted, not to find talk and discourse, but to weigh and consider. - Francis Bacon

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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1620
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.8


Message 357 of 412 (871742)
02-11-2020 7:42 AM


Ipsos NEW national poll has Sanders and Bloomberg 4 ahead of Trump
Ipsos polled 952 from Feb 6 to 10 and both Sanders and Bloomberg got 45 while Trump got 41.

Buttigieg was tied 41 to 41 while Biden was up 44 to 42.

GOOD NEWS for Buttigieg in one state however.

An AtlasIntel poll has only Buttigieg beating Trump in New Hampshire. 46 to 45. All other candidates loose to Trump in New Hampshire including Sanders who is down 47 to 44. Just a few weeks ago Sanders and Buttigieg were up 8 and 10 points over Trump in New Hampshire in another poll


  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19426
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 358 of 412 (871746)
02-11-2020 8:29 AM


Trump Encourages Election Interference
At last night's fantasy show in Manchester Trump encouraged his supporters to vote for the weakest candidate in the Democratic primary. This won't be possible for Trump supporters who are registered Republicans, which is probably most of them, since the New Hampshire primaries are semi-closed. This means that only Democrats and Independents can vote in the Democratic primary, and only Republicans and Independents can vote in the Republican primary. Republicans cannot vote in the Democratic primary and vice versa.

I'll be voting in the Democratic primary today. I've looked at the ballot and there is a long list of choices, most of whom I've never heard of:

  • Mark Stewart Greenstein, Connecticut
  • Pete Buttigieg, Indiana
  • Thomas James Torgesen, New York
  • Henry Hewes, New York
  • Bernie Sanders, Vermont
  • David John Thistle, Massachusetts
  • Marianne Williamson, California
  • John Delaney, Maryland
  • Michael A. Ellinger, California
  • Tulsi Gabbard, Hawaii
  • Tom Koos, California
  • Kamala Harris, California
  • Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota
  • Michael Bennet, Colorado
  • Andrew Yang, New York
  • Joe Biden, Delaware
  • Steve Burke, New York
  • Steve Bullock, Montana
  • Julian Castro, Texas
  • Tom Steyer, California
  • Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente III, California
  • Robby Wells, Georgia
  • Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts
  • Joe Sestak, Pennsylvania
  • Lorenz Kraus, New York
  • Raymond Michael Moroz, New York
  • Ben Gleib, California
  • Deval Patrick, Massachusetts
  • Sam Sloan, New York
  • Cory Booker, New Jersey
  • Rita Krichevsky, New Jersey
  • Mosie Boyd, Arkansas
  • Jason Evritte Dunlap, Maryland

Bernie is well known and well liked in New Hampshire. Many people here remember his time as Vermont's at-large congressional representative. We heard all the noisy Vermont controversies, but through it all Bernie's concern for the common people always shone through. If he'd just drop the socialist label I'd consider him. For me it's still between Klobuchar and Buttigieg.

Decisions, decisions...

--Percy

Edited by Percy, : Fix Bernie's resume.


  
Theodoric
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Posts: 7043
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.5


(2)
Message 359 of 412 (871752)
02-11-2020 10:14 AM
Reply to: Message 356 by anglagard
02-11-2020 5:26 AM


Re: New Hampshire Primary is Tomorrow
For example.
Mayor Pete’s Health Care Plan Is a Joke
His whole health care plan is a dodge and a weave. He is completely beholden to the moneyed interests and plans like this show a lack of serious policy considerations. It just does not add up and won't work.

quote:
he health care debate has popped back in the news again, as Pete Buttigieg attempts to gain ground in the primary by attacking Medicare for All. Buttigieg’s health plan has mostly avoided scrutiny in the debate so far, which is a shame because it is so bad that it borders on comical.

Impossible enrollments

n the first part of Buttigieg’s plan, he says he is going to automatically enroll the millions of uninsured people with incomes low enough to already be eligible for free insurance:
Over half of people with no insurance are eligible for either free insurance or an affordable insurance option. Anyone eligible for free coverage in Medicaid or the public option will be automatically enrolled, and those eligible for subsidized coverage will have a simple enrollment option.
Upon reading this, you should wonder to yourself: how on earth is the bureaucracy going to be able to automatically determine, in real time, who the low-income people are that are eligible for free insurance?
Remember, the people he is talking about here are not people who come into the welfare office and fill out forms recording their income information. These are the people who, despite being eligible, never come into the system at all. And so to automatically enroll them, you have to somehow find them. But how would you go about doing that?
When you follow Buttigieg’s citations, you wind up at a Third Way report that says “an estimated 14.2 million people . . . are eligible for free coverage” in our current system but don’t sign up for it.
When you follow Third Way’s citations, you wind up at a Kaiser Family Foundation report that used the Current Population Survey (CPS) and county-level exchange data to determine that around 14.2 million uninsured people are poor enough to either be eligible for Medicaid or a premium-free bronze plan.

But the CPS data they use does not provide real-time data on when people become eligible for these plans. Instead it samples a small percentage of US households many months after the end of the year. You can use the CPS sample to retrospectively estimate how many people must have fallen into this category, but you cannot use it to prospectively identify individuals in this category and automatically enroll them.
When you keep going in the Third Way report that Buttigieg cites, you eventually get linked to the Pathway to Universal Coverage Act of 2018, which is apparently supposed to be the way we administratively tackle this automatic enrollment challenge. The problem here is that the bill doesn’t actually provide any way of identifying eligible people for automatic enrollment. Instead it proposes granting money to states so that maybe they can innovate a way to do this.
Nobody has any idea how you could possibly identify people in real time who slip into eligibility but never go to the welfare office to fill out the forms. This is because it is not possible. Income information is not reported in real time. Household changes are not reported in real time. For as much as the Left gets dinged for its belief that the bureaucracy can accomplish great things, it is really highly targeted centrist plans that reveal the most insane levels of optimism in the capabilities of the bureaucracy.
This is, in a nutshell, what is wrong with “technocracy” as it has come to be known in the discourse. What masquerades as technical competence and a light touch is, more often than not, really science fantasy delusions about what a state can actually successfully administer.



And that is just the first step.

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 356 by anglagard, posted 02-11-2020 5:26 AM anglagard has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19426
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 360 of 412 (871770)
02-12-2020 7:14 AM


New Hampshire Primary Results
Here are the results of yesterday's New Hampshire Democratic primary (Trump squeaked by on the Republican side 86% to 9% for Weld):

NamePercentageVotesDelegates
Bernie Sanders25.9%73,4709
Pete Buttigieg24.4%69,2169
Amy Klobuchar19.8%55,9826
Elizabeth Warren9.3%26,2660
Joe Biden8.4%23,8130

91.3% of precincts have reported so far, but the percentages and the delegates will probably hold up pretty well.

Many pundits are saying that the nomination is now Bernie's to lose. Sure, he's wildly even recklessly liberal, but if elected he's not going to get his way with Congress and so many of the items on his pet agenda would get moderated and watered down. The debates would be great entertainment because I'm betting that Sanders would have no qualms about calling Trump a pathological liar to his face. He's incapable of speaking without passion and deep belief. He's a politician because that's his nature, not because he learned the ropes.

One pundit referred to Buttigieg's approach as bafflegab. I think I know what she means (Opinion | This Amy Klobuchar could beat Trump. Where has she been all year?). In the last few weeks Buttigieg's pointed clarity has become more vague and diffuse, more aspirational but less detailed.

Many are saying that even after Klobuchar's surprising success and rapid climb from the single digits spurred by last Friday's debate performance that she still has a very tough uphill road. She has neither the funding nor the organization. In my view she has to throw caution to wind and spend beyond her campaign's means to get what needs doing done.

Warren gave a stirring speech shortly after the polls closed. If only she campaigned and interviewed as well as she speeched. That she's the second most liberal candidate in the race doesn't help either. She rejects SuperPac money, and I think PAC money, too, but whatever the details, she's determined to rely upon small donations, which is hurting her fundraising.

Biden left for South Carolina in the middle of the voting. Can his campaign recover?

Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet have dropped out.

Deval Patrick received less than 1% of the vote and said he would think things over and have an announcement today.

--Percy


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