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Author Topic:   The 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Campaign
ringo
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From: frozen wasteland
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Message 406 of 471 (872164)
02-21-2020 12:06 PM
Reply to: Message 404 by Hyroglyphx
02-21-2020 9:38 AM


Re: Sanders beats Trump 50 to 45 in North Carolina.
Hyroglyphx writes:

Consider this: the media is biased as all get out.

Hmm. I don't get that impression in Canada. Mind you, I only follow the real media - i.e. CBC and CTV - not every goober on the Internet who has an opinion.

My dad used to say that people get the government they deserve. Maybe they get the media they deserve too.

"I'm Fallen and I can't get up!"

This message is a reply to:
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jar
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Posts: 32356
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 407 of 471 (872184)
02-21-2020 9:17 PM


Texas Day 4 Primary counts
So the total Early Voting and Mail in counts so far have been posted in my county. In Texas Primaries the voter can declare which party ballot to use and each parties counts are reported right after poll close.

After four days of early voting the numbers are slightly up from 2016's first four days with Democratic ballots up by 2000 voters and Republican ballots up by 52 voters over the 2016 level. Trump has been requesting Republicans to cross party and vote in the Democratic primaries and select the weakest candidate which might explain some of the increases in Democratic Ballots cast this year.

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Hyroglyphx
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From: Austin, TX
Joined: 05-03-2006
Member Rating: 2.9


(1)
Message 408 of 471 (872185)
02-21-2020 9:30 PM
Reply to: Message 406 by ringo
02-21-2020 12:06 PM


Re: Sanders beats Trump 50 to 45 in North Carolina.
Hmm. I don't get that impression in Canada. Mind you, I only follow the real media - i.e. CBC and CTV - not every goober on the Internet who has an opinion.


The media the in the UK and Canada is noticeably better as there seems to be a greater emphasis on an impartial reporting of the facts and journalistic integrity. That used to exist in the US but its been replaced by Infotainment. The news in the US is supposed to entertain you, not inform you.

"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

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RAZD
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Joined: 03-14-2004
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Message 409 of 471 (872207)
02-22-2020 1:22 PM
Reply to: Message 386 by Hyroglyphx
02-17-2020 4:48 PM


Re: How "Socialism" is Viewed
Well, and Cuba, and North Korea, and Bolivia, and Ecuador, and Nicaragua, and Peru, etc...


Totalitarian governments are not socialism or communism. It's not what the people want. That was the problem with the USSR (and why it fell apart), and is currently the problem in Hong Kong. We also see China having trouble.

Its funny, when you ask the Nordic countries why they switched to a Socialist model some said it was because of how they saw the United States using the Veterans Affairs as a template. Now most Americans distance themselves from terms like Socialism.


Curious article from Forbes (business biased)

quote:
Sorry Bernie Bros But Nordic Countries Are Not Socialist

It is certainly true that Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Denmark are notable economic successes. What is false is that these countries are particularly socialist.

Perhaps a better name for what the Nordic countries practice would be compassionate capitalism.

As the American left embraces a platform that continues to look more and more like a socialist’s dream, it is common for those on the right to counter with the example of Venezuela as the nightmare of socialism in reality. A common response from the left is that socialism (or democratic socialism) works just fine in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. It is certainly true that Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Denmark are notable economic successes. What is false is that these countries are particularly socialist.

First, it is worth noting that the Nordic counties were economic successes before they built their welfare states. Those productive economies, generating good incomes for their workers, allowed the governments to raise the tax revenue needed to pay for the social benefits. It was not the government benefits that created wealth, but wealth that allowed the luxury of such generous government programs.

Second, as evidence of the lack of government interference in business affairs, there is the fact that none of these countries have minimum wage laws. Unions are reasonably powerful in many industries and negotiate contracts, but the government does nothing to ensure any particular outcome from those negotiations. Workers are paid what they are worth, not based on government’s perception of what is fair.

Socialism can take the form of government controlling or interfering with free markets, nationalizing industries, and subsidizing favored ones (green energy, anyone?). The Nordic countries don’t actually do much of those things. Yes, they offer government-paid healthcare, in some cases tuition-free university educations, and rather generous social safety nets, all financed with high taxes. However, it is possible to do these things without interfering in the private sector more than required. It is allowing businesses to be productive that produces the high corporate and personal incomes that support the tax collections making the government benefits feasible. The Nordic countries are smart enough not to kill the goose that lays the golden egg.

If the left insists on naming a system of generous government benefits combined with a free market democratic socialism, I cannot stop them. That seems unnecessarily confusing since the government is actually running no industries other than education (and meddling somewhat in healthcare). It certainly isn’t socialism. In fact, the only reason most such countries can afford those benefits is that their market economies are so productive they can cover the expense of the government’s generosity. Perhaps a better name for what the Nordic countries practice would be compassionate capitalism.


Or socialized capitalism, developed democratically by the government that the people vote for.

It seems to me that this is precisely what Bernie is advocating, plus minimum wage. Certainly strong unions is part of his program, which should be unnecessary in a purely socialist state.

But in any event, people forget that China is still a communist nation, albeit they changed how they do business. They knew they could never compete in a true Marxist/Leninist/Maoist style of communism in terms of production and GDP compared to capitalist societies. So they, quite cleverly actually, said if you can't beat them, join them.... sort of.


Just as Forbes describes how the Nordic countries are not really socialist countries, so too there is no real communist country. They are oligarchies and autocratic. In this they are no different from dictatorships. The nordic countries combine a capitalistic economy with a social conscience, much as we do with the social programs we have..

The architect of the Command Economy, which also is a hybrid of communism and capitalism, allowed for a semi-autonomous free market that is more or less still under the thumb of the PRC. The only problem is that they still hold very draconian views on personal rights and zero tolerance for dissent against the government. It didn't end with Tank Man. China still has a rich and storied tradition of making figures oppositional to the government to magically and mysteriously vanish... even under one of the largest surveillance states ever erected.


They are mixing capitalism with communist programs under an authoritarian government instead of a democracy.

I think Percy is right to point out that the term might as well be toxic waste in the present era. Timing is everything. In the 90's, there was a gay rights push that was suppressed. People like Hilary Clinton, knowing the pulse on the street, distanced herself from it because she didn't think Americans were ready to accept it. And she was right.


Was she? She lost critical votes in critical states, no matter that she won the popular vote in other states. Those critical states bear some looking at. The voters there that went for Trumpy were the working class workers that the Democrats had left behind. Bernie won those states in the primaries, iirc. Michigan for instance.

The same applies. Maybe socialism is the greatest thing since sliced bread, but good luck convincing the bulk of Americans that when they have so many real-world examples of why it should never take root.


And yet the Nordic countries continue to flourish, not only with a good economy, but with the highest happiness factors in the world. Money isn't happiness.

If you go to the extreme that Bernie is, the chance of beating Trump diminishes. Death by a thousand cuts, while taking much longer, is preferable than a decapitation. People are more comfortable with the devil they already know.


Bernie beats Trump in head to head national polling every time and has for 3 years. Even when he is presented as a socialist rather than a democratic. See Message 320.

If you go to the extreme that Bernie is, ...


Bernie is not extreme, he is a return to old democrat positions. Take FDR, the most popular president in US history. Look at his Second Bill of Rights - Wikipedia

Now is not the time to go full bore Socialist. It has too many negative connotations associated with it. Timing is everything. If your goal is to beat Trump in the next election, its gonna be hard to argue against the numbers he's putting up under an extremely capitalist structure. Jobs are up, unemployment is down, fuel prices are the lowest they've been in a long time, the economy is booming, etc.


Now is precisely the time to return to social values where people and family are more critical than money. People want honest pay for honest work. The stock market is booming, but the number of jobs that pay $15/hr or more not so much. People working multiple jobs to make ends meet depresses the unemployment numbers but doesn't improve their lives. How many americans are making better than a living wage? That's a better indicator of the health of the economy.

If the goal is beat Trump then you're going to have to find someone that can deliver similar expectations while still able to make improvements. You're going to need someone more moderate than Bernie's views to do it, more than likely.


Your going to need someone who not only has mass appeal, but someone that inspires people to run for other positions, from Dog Catcher to Senator. The only one I see doing that is Bernie, example AOC.

AOC and the "squad" is one of the best things to happen to the Democratic party, because they knocked the Dems on their haunches and revitalized the party. She was inspired by Bernie to run.

We don't need to just beat Trump, we need to beat the GOP, and the only candidate I see with the widespread support to do that is Bernie.

Curiously, I also think he is best suited to unite the people after the divisiveness of trump. His ability to work with both sides to get bills passed is a good indicator.

Let's see how he does in Nevada today.

Enjoy

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel•American•Zen•Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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This message is a reply to:
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RAZD
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Posts: 20628
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 410 of 471 (872210)
02-22-2020 2:04 PM
Reply to: Message 391 by Hyroglyphx
02-18-2020 11:51 AM


Re: robots
The reality is that some jobs will become obsolete... and something else will take its place. But, if as Andrew Yang suggests, that overnight truckers would be replaced by self-driving trucks, it would be fairly catastrophic. But there is no sign that it would happen overnight. Self-driving cars have been tested for about a decade and they are still not online en masse. There will be jobs in 10 years that we've never even considered possible.

If we can understand evolution in biological terms it should come as no surprise that the labor market operates in a similar way.

Did the invention of the telephone make telegraph operators obsolete? Yup, no dispute. Did it just create new jobs in the telephone industry? Sure did and in fact created way more jobs than it replaced. Evolution is inevitable.


And in the 1950's everyone was predicting shorter work days and more leisure time to enjoy travel by jet packs.

Gung ho the future will be great.

The population of the earth has doubled since then. Doubled. That's a rate of growth that cannot be maintained without consequence.

Curiously I am less concerned with everyone having a job, but in doing what they like to do and how much fun they have, and how we convert our society to value free time over $$. It should be easy.

Enjoy

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel•American•Zen•Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

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jar
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Posts: 32356
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 411 of 471 (872228)
02-23-2020 9:08 AM


Hidalgo county Primary voter count day 5
Just a note on the numbers. Remember that Hidalgo County is a very liberal part of Texas even though it's located right on the Rio Grande River. There is almost universal opposition to the stupid wall and strong support for making access back and forth across the border easier and quicker. This was also the home town of Lloyd Bentsen.

The numbers of early voters is up for both Republicans and Democrats over the same period in 2016. That's in spite of the weather being cold and drizzly with 20 mile an hour winds several days this year while it was pretty much 70s and sunny everyday in 2016.

Number so far for the first five days of early voting:

2016 Republican: 2,675 Democrat: 20,277
2020 Republican: 2,817 Democrat: 22,358


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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RAZD
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Posts: 20628
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 412 of 471 (872232)
02-23-2020 10:15 AM
Reply to: Message 411 by jar
02-23-2020 9:08 AM


Nevada
Still no final results, but Bernie projected to win, largely due to hispanic vote.

Bernie should start playing up his ability to unite people of different backgrounds.

Enjoy


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel•American•Zen•Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

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RAZD
Member
Posts: 20628
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 413 of 471 (872331)
02-25-2020 12:05 PM
Reply to: Message 412 by RAZD
02-23-2020 10:15 AM


Re: Nevada
News not reporting number of delegates ... ?

quote:
Live New Hampshire Democratic Primary Election Results 2020: Who Is Winning?

2020 Delegate Tracker
Last updated: 2/25 | Delegates remaining: 3,878

Bernie Sanders - 45
Pete Buttigieg- 26
Joe Biden - 15
Elizabeth Warren - 8
Amy Klobuchar - 7
Michael Bloomberg - 0
Tom Steyer - 0

1,991 needed to win nomination


quote:
2020 South Carolina Primary - Election Central

The South Carolina primary is tentatively set for Saturday, February 29, 2020. The “first-in-the-South” primary gives a voice to Southern states in the presidential nomination process. South Carolina often helps to begin significantly narrowing down the field of candidates following contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Allocation: Proportional – Some delegates are allocated statewide and some are allocated by Congressional District.


quote:
2020 South Carolina Democratic primary - Wikipedia

The South Carolina primary is an open primary, with the state awarding 63 delegates, of which 54 are pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.


Sleepy Joe will need to do very well in SC ...

Enjoy


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel•American•Zen•Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

This message is a reply to:
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LamarkNewAge
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Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.7


Message 414 of 471 (872422)
02-27-2020 8:59 AM


Only Sanders beats Trump in Pennsylvania poll
Sanders beats Trump by 3.

Biden is tied

All others loose.

That was Morning Call and it is new.

As for Virginia Sanders beats Trump by the most points. 9 to be exact. University of Virginia poll.

Sanders beats Trump in the latest Wisconsin polls also.

The only state Hillary Clinton won that Sanders is down in is New Hampshire and that was a poll from a month ago. Biden did worse than Sanders there anyway.

Sanders will win Michigan so he just needs Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Both are close but Sanders is stronger than Biden in both.

And he can loose New Hampshire to Trump but still win with Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan flipping from Trump to him. It would be amazing if he won states like Texas and North Carolina too. Don't forget Florida. Hillary lost these 3 states but Sanders has polled amazingly well in all 3.

Sanders is electable and in a way that other candidates are not. Hillary Clinton is a done deal and the evidence is in on the lie about her electable credits. The media should talk about the load of crap the same Sanders critics said 4 years ago.


  
LamarkNewAge
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Message 415 of 471 (872423)
02-27-2020 9:14 AM


Two polls in a row show Sanders alone beats Trump in Pennsylvania
The Morning Call poll had Sanders alone beating Trump there.

There was also the Madison Election Research Center poll which had Biden beating Trump by 1 in Pennsylvania and Sanders winning by the largest margin. 2 points.

The same Madison poll had Sanders winning by the most points in Michigan. 8 points over Trump.

This Madison poll was the one that had Sanders and Biden beating Trump by 2 in Wisconsin while Trump won over all candidates in another poll on the general election race there.

The Virginia poll that had Sanders winning by nine was Roanoke University.

Sanders beats Trump by the largest margin in all of these states but Biden matches his narrow margin in Wisconsin.

Hillary lost all these states except Virginia.


  
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1660
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.7


Message 416 of 471 (872424)
02-27-2020 9:37 AM


More details on Wisconsin Pennsylvania and Michigan
I went to the actual site to see the numbers. The University of Madison ERC with State Journal and You Gov worked on these polls.

The numbers show several candidates beat Trump by 2 in Pennsylvania in their poll. Sanders beats Trump by the most in the others but I forgot already lol.

The poll shows that 82 to 89 percent that voted for Clinton in 2016 plan to vote for the Democratic nominee in the 2020 general election. But 89 to93 percent that voted for Trump in 2016 plan to do so again. Voters who sat out in 2016 favor Democratic candidates by 2 to 1 in 2020.

The website has good detail on other questions too. Michigan has Trump at a 47 percent strong unfavorable rating which outnumbers the combination of slight favorable and strongly favor.

It is a project that will look at the 3 states and these are the 3 big Trump 2016 states that he is trying to hold.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


  
jar
Member
Posts: 32356
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 417 of 471 (872458)
02-27-2020 5:15 PM


Hidalgo County Early votting tally
With just today and tomorrow remaining before the March 3 Primary here are the local tallies.

In person and mail in ballots.
Democratic voters: 34,638
Republican voters:   4,856

Edited by jar, : fix alignment


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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Coragyps
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Posts: 5463
From: Snyder, Texas, USA
Joined: 11-12-2002
Member Rating: 4.4


Message 418 of 471 (872469)
02-27-2020 6:22 PM
Reply to: Message 417 by jar
02-27-2020 5:15 PM


Scurry County Early votting tally
And from a different portion of Texas than Jar lives in, we have some different early voting totals:
Republican 979
Democratic 55

Yes, dear folk, Texas is weird.


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LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1660
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.7


(1)
Message 419 of 471 (872479)
02-27-2020 11:43 PM


New Marquette poll has ONLY Sanders beating Trump in Wisconsin
This was unknown to me when I made my posts earlier today.

Even Meet The Press had the host challenge the crap claim of Biden supporter Ted Strickland and he used the Marquette poll to show that evidence does not back up the claims that Sanders is a bad candidate.

A lot of evidence that keeps coming.

Also a University of New Hampshire poll has Sanders breaking even with Trump in New Hampshire while Biden looses by 2 and Bloomberg looses by 14. Buttigieg polls strong in every New Hampshire poll. He wins by 6. It is a rare example of Buttigieg running strong in a state against Trump.

Back to the big 3 Trump states.

Sanders is strongest in Michigan . He should be favored there.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could also flip.

Sanders winning Michigan but loosing New Hampshire would take Trumps 306 electoral college score down to 296.

Here are a few paths to bringing him down to 268 or lower.

First Sanders can win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Or he could win Texas alone.

Or he could win Florida alone.

Or win Arizona and North Carolina.

Sanders has a lot of targets and Trump will only get his words used against him when single payer healthcare is the hottest issue.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


  
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1660
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.7


Message 420 of 471 (872579)
02-28-2020 9:18 PM


2 Texas general election polls just came out. Exciting results.
One was taken by CNN with SSRS. It had 1004 registered voters taken from Feb 21 to 26

The other poll was taken by Univision and Houston University and Latino Decision. Taken from Feb 22 to 26 and it talked to 1003 registered voters.

Bloomberg lost 47 to 46 in the CNN poll but won the Univision poll 44 to 43.

Biden won the CNN poll 48 to 47 but lost the Univision poll 46 to 43.

Sanders was tied 45 to 45 in the Univision poll but lost 48 to 46 in the CNN poll.

This means that the combined results of 2 big state polls tell us that the Lone Star states 38 electoral votes are up for grabs and it is too close to call.

Klobuchar and Buttigieg lost in both polls and Warren tied in the CNN poll but lost by 7 in the Univision poll.Buttigieg lost the Univision poll by 6 and Klobuchar lost by 7 in the same poll.

Also note that AtlasIntel just released a newer South Carolina poll, which has Sanders and Biden loosing to Trump in SC 48 to 42. You will note that I showed the results from a poll just after Iowa by AtlasIntel and Trump won with the typical double digits in South Carolina.

Now I am wondering if Democrats are really going to have a chance in the less conservative North Carolina neighborhood if South Carolina isn't yet a total Trump blowout we all expect. North Carolina saw Hillary Clinton loose by 3.6 percent while SC gave Trump a 54 to 41 win.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


  
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