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Author Topic:   The 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Campaign
Hyroglyphx
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Posts: 5982
From: Austin, TX
Joined: 05-03-2006
Member Rating: 2.9


(1)
Message 421 of 471 (872583)
02-29-2020 12:19 AM
Reply to: Message 418 by Coragyps
02-27-2020 6:22 PM


Re: Scurry County Early votting tally
And from a different portion of Texas than Jar lives in, we have some different early voting totals:
Republican 979
Democratic 55
Yes, dear folk, Texas is weird.

Border cities in Texas tend to vote Democrat... take a guess why that might be. Big cities tend to be fairly distributed with a slightly higher emphasis on Democratic voting. "Middle America" Texas is still very, very red. Austin (Travis County) is as liberal as it gets in Texas, but one county to the north (Williamson) its hardcore Republican based.

Overall though Texas is not nearly as blood red as it once was.... it is quickly becoming a purple state, like Florida. On any given Sunday a democrat or a republican can win.

Edited by Hyroglyphx, : No reason given.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

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jar
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Posts: 32355
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 422 of 471 (872591)
02-29-2020 9:02 AM


Hidalgo County Early Primary totals.
The final days tallies are out and the results are somewhat interesting. The Early Voting Totals between 2016 and 2020 are almost identical with only 374 more votes this year. But the party votes show a different story. Republican votes are down over 25% from the 2016 level while the Democratic voting remained almost identical with only a 6.5% increase. In fact the increase in Democratic votes this year is almost exactly the same as the decrease in Republican votes from 2016.

But what does that mean?

Maybe in 2016 a couple thousand Democrats voted Republican to reject Hilary. Or maybe this year a couple thousand Republican voted Democratic to reject Trump.

Tuesday will be the Primary and it is very likely that there will be many runoff positions before the final slate gets set.


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RAZD
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Posts: 20628
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 423 of 471 (872637)
03-01-2020 10:25 AM
Reply to: Message 413 by RAZD
02-25-2020 12:05 PM


Joe got South Carolina ... Bernie still leads
quote:
2020 South Carolina Democratic primary - Wikipedia

... The South Carolina primary is an open primary, with the state awarding 63 delegates, of which 54 are pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.

... On March 30, 2020, the state Democratic convention will meet in Columbia to vote on the unpledged delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention. ...

Candidate votes % Delegates
Joe Biden 255,662 48.4 39
Bernie Saunders 105,070 19.9 15

No one else made the 15% cutoff for earned delegates.

As the DNC is against Bernie the 9 unpledged delegates will likely go to Joe, rather than split 6 Joe and 3 Bernie ...

Updating the previous table of delegates with the pledge delegate counts gives

Candidate Delegates to date
Bernie Saunders 60
Joe Biden 54
Pete Buttigieg 26
Elizabeth Warren 8
Amy Klobuchar 7
Michael Bloomberg 0
Tom Steyer 0

1,991 needed to win nomination

Are we ready for a raucous super Tuesday?

California big for Bernie with a lot of early voting already in
Texas likely for Bernie but not a blowout, again a lot of early voting already in
southern states similar to SC likely for Joe ... will it be enough to catch Bernie?

Who will drop out?

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : .

Edited by RAZD, : converted to 2nd table


we are limited in our ability to understand
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Chiroptera
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Posts: 6906
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 4.2


(2)
Message 424 of 471 (872651)
03-01-2020 12:29 PM
Reply to: Message 423 by RAZD
03-01-2020 10:25 AM


Re: Joe got South Carolina ... Bernie still leads
Yeah, I was planning on voting for Warren, but now there's a good chance she won't make the threshold for getting any delegates here in OK, and so my vote might be wasted.

I'm also worried that if Sanders is going to be the candidate who represents the progressive left, then my vote going to Warren and then being wasted will end up helping sap the Left of crucial momentum and help Biden.

I pretty much was hoping I wouldn't be put into a position where I'd have to decide to vote strategically. On the other hand, despite the misgivings I've expressed before, Sanders is a close second choice so I don't feel as if I'm choosing between the less of two evils.


The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool. -- Richard Feynman

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RAZD
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Posts: 20628
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 425 of 471 (872654)
03-01-2020 1:30 PM
Reply to: Message 424 by Chiroptera
03-01-2020 12:29 PM


Re: Joe got South Carolina ... Bernie still leads
Yeah, I was planning on voting for Warren, but now there's a good chance she won't make the threshold for getting any delegates here in OK, and so my vote might be wasted.

The talking heads on MSNBC and CNN were talking about how the DNC would want Warren and Klobuchar to stay in the race to take away possible Bernie delegates so that Biden could win, specially if Steyer drops out and they can get Bloomberg to endorse Biden and convert his adds (already paid for time) to pro Biden ...

Because heaven for fend we should choose a publicly popular candidate ... when they can force Biden on us.

Baturds

Enjoy


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LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1660
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.7


(1)
Message 426 of 471 (872670)
03-01-2020 9:46 PM


Biden looks more regional than Hillary Clinton was.
Hillary Clinton was a candidate that rode a wave of sweeping the front loaded southern primaries, the wave of favorable media commentary, and the wave of mammoth Democratic establishment support.

Biden looks like he will get southern states alone, while Hillary Clinton branched out to a fair extent. Sort of. Sanders beats Biden in Texas, Kentucky and possibly Virginia. Biden will win Delaware. Biden used to call his home state a southern state. Missouri and Oklahoma will go Biden. I imagine North Dakota might vote for Biden over the fracking issue. Despite the fracking issue, Montana could still go to Sanders.

Biden looks like he might possibly win Indiana too. Don't think he wins South Dakota and Alaska, but he might.

Biden gets 17 to 18 states.

Sanders gets 29 to 32.

I think Sanders could get as little as 47 to 49 percent of pledged delegates however. Bloomberg will not release his 3 to 4 percent of pledged delegates so Sanders will have to try to get the other 1.5 to 2 percent of non Biden pledged delegates to choose him in the first round.

Round 2 will see the Supers defeat Sanders so I hope there is no round 2.


  
Percy
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Posts: 19634
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 427 of 471 (872682)
03-02-2020 8:35 AM
Reply to: Message 425 by RAZD
03-01-2020 1:30 PM


Re: Joe got South Carolina ... Bernie still leads
RAZD writes:

...specially if Steyer drops out...

Steyer dropped out a couple days ago.

--Percy


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RAZD
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Posts: 20628
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 428 of 471 (872702)
03-02-2020 4:15 PM
Reply to: Message 427 by Percy
03-02-2020 8:35 AM


On to super tuesday ...
RAZD writes:

...specially if Steyer drops out...

Steyer dropped out a couple days ago.

and now Klobuchar and Butigieg

Getting a lot of delegates from states that are deep red (in South Carolina Trump beat Hillary by 15%) may get you to the convention but it doesn't say squat about electability.

Same for a lot of southern states that Joe is predicted to win on Tuesday.

IF it goes to a brokered convention I would hope that the one that does best in blue and purple states would mean more than who does well in deep red states ... IF they truly want to win the election or prefer the (even now) status quo ... for those who have not been harmed by Trumps policies and don't care about the people.

The DNC elite and DINO superdelegates don't care squat about the people.

Enjoy


we are limited in our ability to understand
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Rebel•American•Zen•Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
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Diomedes
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Posts: 947
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 429 of 471 (872778)
03-04-2020 8:43 AM
Reply to: Message 428 by RAZD
03-02-2020 4:15 PM


Re: On to super tuesday ...
Seems Biden had a good showing on Super Tuesday. Although once the results of California come in, I think Sanders will still have the delegate lead.

With Klobuchar and Butigieg dropping out right before Super Tuesday, that seems to have cemented the more centrist votes towards Biden. But the more left leaning votes are still being shared between Warren and Sanders. My guess is Warren will likely drop out shortly considering she didn't even win her home state of Massachusetts. Actually came in third which I think pretty much torpedoes her chances at this stage. But once she is gone, that will likely consolidate the more left leaning votes under Sanders.

I'm curious how long 'Little Mike' will hang on. He's already spent $500 million of his own money at this stage. But with a net worth of around $55 billion, he has pretty deep pockets. So he can hang around for quite some time.


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Lammy
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Posts: 3623
From: Chicago
Joined: 03-29-2004


Message 430 of 471 (872779)
03-04-2020 9:03 AM


Last time, democrats went for a centrist, Clinton. And she lost the electoral vote.

Now, democrats are going for another centrist. What makes them think it will be different this time?


If you say the word "gullible" slowly, it sounds like oranges. Go ahead and try it.

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jar
Member
Posts: 32355
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 431 of 471 (872780)
03-04-2020 9:18 AM
Reply to: Message 430 by Lammy
03-04-2020 9:03 AM


The main Bernie base didn't go to the polls in the Primary. What evidence is there to show that the younger voters will actually vote in the election? Looking at the exit polls it looks as though less than 20% of the under 30 registered voters showed up pretty much across all states.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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Lammy
Member
Posts: 3623
From: Chicago
Joined: 03-29-2004


Message 432 of 471 (872781)
03-04-2020 9:25 AM
Reply to: Message 431 by jar
03-04-2020 9:18 AM


Both husband and I are millennials. That said, my generation and the gen z'ers suck.

And let me be clear about something. We own a business and we support Sanders. Not hoping for "free stuff" here. But it's about damn time we have single payer.

I don't know if Sanders will win against Trumpelthinskin, but I'm almost certain Biden will be a repeat of the Hillary Disaster of 2016.


If you say the word "gullible" slowly, it sounds like oranges. Go ahead and try it.

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jar
Member
Posts: 32355
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 433 of 471 (872782)
03-04-2020 9:27 AM
Reply to: Message 432 by Lammy
03-04-2020 9:25 AM


But how to get the young voters to actually vote?

If even 50% of them had voted the outcome would have been entirely different.

AbE:

Afterall, old farts like me can weather most anything that will come up during the balance of our lifetime but it will be the fold that are say 50 and under that will get to live in the world of the Oligarchs.

Edited by jar, : see AbE


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 947
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 434 of 471 (872783)
03-04-2020 10:46 AM


Bloomberg calls it quits
He just announced he is suspending his campaign. Apparently, he is endorsing Biden.

quote:
Michael Bloomberg has ended his bid for the White House after a poor showing on Super Tuesday.

"Three months ago, I entered the race for president to defeat Donald Trump. Today, I am leaving the race for the same reason," he said.

Mr Bloomberg, a former mayor of New York City, has spent more than half a billion dollars in the race to become the Democratic Party's nominee.

He said he would now support former Vice-President Joe Biden.


Bloomberg ends US presidential campaign

I guess that's one way to blow $500 million.


  
Lammy
Member
Posts: 3623
From: Chicago
Joined: 03-29-2004


Message 435 of 471 (872784)
03-04-2020 11:37 AM
Reply to: Message 433 by jar
03-04-2020 9:27 AM


I am very very disappointed in my own crowd. Eff millennials and gen z-ers. We deserve another 4 years of the orange maniac.

If you say the word "gullible" slowly, it sounds like oranges. Go ahead and try it.

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